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- Today
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I have no idea what youre talking about. The page I linked to wasnt of fan mocks? it was the main sportswriters at all those major publications. CBS, NBC, FOx Sports, NFL.com, PFF, PFN, Sports Illustrated. THese were the mocks their experts did, the articles they wrote. And I only submitted them to rebut one claim you made - that the experts see Banks as lower than they actually obviously do. that's factually wrong, and I proved it. Maybe Banks sucks, but expert opinions from the mainstream sports press do not make 13 equivalent to 15-25. That's false. I also say that mocks are not what drives my opinion. I just put them there to prove your assertion about experts is wrong. I submitted the most mainsrteam experts. What drives me is film. I know what Ive seen. Your entitled to your opinions of course, but i believe they are wrong. I think Banks is a top pick, experts think he is a top pick, the film says he is a top pick. But thats not proof of course. When all the "experts" were still saying Fields was good, I already KNEW he would never be good. I knew it from the tape. I knew he had crap protection. I didnt count those plays. I knew he had dropped balls, and I didnt count those plays either. But I saw a ton of plays where he was protected with guys open and didnt pull the trigger. Once I knew that I KNEW, not opinion, Id seen the proof. I KNOW what kind of player Banks is. I cannot predict how he or Campbell or any of them will go from here. But I KNOW that right now, hes a top pick, and I feel comfortable with 65% of the so called experts saying he will be gone by 13. Will he go even earlier? I hope not, but it's a distinct possibility. But if youve thought I was putting fan mocks up, you didnt get my point at ALL. Your constant argument seems to be that some writer you trust told you something. It's not YOUR opinion, it's theirs, and then the only defense you give for it is that they are experts and we arent. Well anyone whos read sportswriters for any period of time knows they are not infalliable. To say the least. You say "X says Y" and then maybe we say "well I disagree, because I dont see Y on the tape" and you say "well youre just a stupid fan, and you dont know as much as my guy X knows" and then we say "well heres a bunch of OTHER experts who are JUST as credentialed as yours who disagree!" - doesnt that prove that credentials dont prove anyone is right? If others of the same pedigree disagree? Its a classic logical fallacy called the "argument from authority" and it isnt an argument at all because other authorities disagree, so therefore being an authority doesnt make you right. Being right does. You cant say "2+2=5 because Im a math PHD" and some homeless guy says "well Ive got two beers in one hand, and two in the other and they add up to four" and you say "well youre not a math PHD" so which matters most? logical proof, or credentials? Especially when other math PHDs are saying 2+2=4 and maybe some crazy other ones are saying it equals 2. At some point you have to count the freakin beers and prove your are right or not, regardless of credentials. Watching a LT play and evaluating them isnt rocket science dude. There are things to look for, and it's all on the tape. Many tens or hundreds of thousands of people can do it. They may disagree on evaluation, but at least they can argue on points, not just authority. For example Doctor A says you have one disease, Doctor B says another. Im not a doctor but I say I think it's B too. So you say, "you're not a Doctor and Doctor A says its one disease" but... Doctor B IS a doctor and he says something else. So doesnt that mean being a Doctor doesnt mean youre right? My sportswriters are just as credentialed as yours, and they disagree, so being credentialed doesnt prove anything. Thats the logical fallacy - the argument from authority. I wish for once youd just tell me "I dont like your guy Banks because he plays too high" or "Banks has poor lateral movement" or SOMETHING more than a 40 time or an arm measurement - those are lazy narratives that are excuses for not doing the homework of actually watching the tape. But all you say is "well a guy I read doesnt agree with you, and their opinion is better than yours" And at some point, since all the good writers disagree, I gotta just call BS and say "argue something substantive more than just we cant possibly know because we are just fans" because its insulting, and its not really a debate point at all. Seriously, have you watched more than 10 minutes of highlights on any of these guys? You really look at Banks and dont see Pro Bowler potential? Really? You see Membou on tape and think he looks better? I dont think you would say that if youd LOOKED at the tape. It's just something you read someone else said. That's not a debate. It's some combination of blind faith in a couple writers and stubbornness. So from now on, don't tell me my opinion doesn't count because I'm just a fan. A lot of us have been watching football a long time, and I learn stuff from fellow posters here all the time. Lots of smart people here with educated opinions. Tell me why YOU think Im wrong about a player. Tell me what YOU see. This argument of authority thing isn't gonna fly any more. I could well be wrong about anything - tell me why Im wrong, dont just dismiss me (and all of us) by saying we can't know what we're talking about.
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Good tape. Another player I have watched that's looked good is Kyle Williams 4.40 speed. https://youtu.be/H9i-9ykjWG4?si=uiaBv_fswy8kmpt2
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I wouldn't like Walker either but people are saying Allen would love for his speed and rush ability. I have no idea. I'm good with Warren, Jeanty, Kenneth Grant, James Pierce, Nolen and even Matt Golden if Johnson thinks he's a valuable weapon. They are a few I don't want, otherwise I'm not complaining. I just want 4 good football players that elevate the team.
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In not using what you showed me but the experts I trust. Your mock list has lots of people that are just football fans, no serious analyzers that takes hundreds of hours of research as to watching 3 games and becoming an expert. I agree if they took him at 10 that's not a reach. I'm not sure what you do for a living but you will understand this. You are a record executive and 1000 people come in saying they are great singers. The reality is you may have 15-25 that are good. I'm not counting someone like me that creates a website (Thailand Bear's fan) and puts out a mock draft because I think I am smart. The top predictors in the business never get it right let alone people that claim to be smart because they are a football fan. With all of this said, our greatest debate doesn't fall on where we list a players value, I don't think the bears are taking a OL at 10, is that what you believe? That's the key to what I'm saying.
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CRAP! Just read that Miami star LT Terron Armstead just retired. More competition for LTs, and Miami might even have to trade up, maybe over us, or maybe to us, but then we arent getting Banks after Miami picks at 10 and SF picks at 11.
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I dont see how a median of 13 means 15-25 was accurate? 15 - 25 means a general value around 20ish, 13 is much higher? If someone said to redo their small bathroom and they'd give you somewhere between $15k and $25k to do it, and when you finished they gave you $13k, you wouldnt think that was anything like what theyd told you? But we agree 10 isnt too early.
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all great names. I love Landon Jackson. Of course i want to see an OT, but these are all players Id love to see on the Bears.
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Yeah, not surprised at all! Brisker is great, I just hope he can keep playing.
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I think Walker's pass rush skills are way overrated, he's more of a blitzer than edge defender. If we draft him at 10 I'll be incredibly disappointed and I think it will signal we've returned to the Phil Emery era style of drafting. There are so many good players in this draft at higher impact positions he can draft before grabbing an off-ball LB. Walker is not as fast or agile as past years smaller elite athletes like Nolan Smith who has had just 7.5 sacks in 2 seasons in Philly. That's with a lot of good talent around him. We're not even close to that kind of Dline talent. Fix the trenches.
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That's a very good list although I have not scouted all of those players. I would add the other Iowa State WR. Higgins combined with DJ and Rome would be a coverage nightmare for any team. All 3 can line up at any position. If Steve Smith is right and he goes late 1st he's not even an option but he could be there early 2nd. Even then, I think there are higher needs we should address beforehand like RB, DT, DE.
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That's a very realistic draft and would love that Draft. I would prefer Junkins to Henderson but that's my brain interfering. I have seen several people say Grant is Akim Hicks, I would love that pick at 10
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I totally get it, I think when I originally said he was around pick 15-25 that was accurate. If the bears think he is a future LT 10 is not to early. Rating him as 7 th pick in the draft is a stretch so says Draft Buzz. When you latch on to a player, your history is always putting favorable posts out there to support that player. There is also a lot of favorable content because lots of people share your belief. In this draft there is a general consensus who the best players are Hunter, Carter, Graham, Walker, Jeanty, Warren and some think Ward is. Banks is in the next tier with 25 other players. I don't think he is bad and would have no problem if we took him. I just don't think the bears are at 10, if we drop down and he is there at 20(?) grab him. I don't think they are taking a OL until the second round. I don't pretend to be any kind of draft guru, I would be happy with 10 different players at 10. I trust Poles to take the right person. I have liked every one he has taken in the first round since he got here. It's later picks he has botched. I think 2 players not mentioned a lot that could end up picked at 10. Matt Golden WR ( weapon) , Or Jacob Walker/ LB . Johnson and Allen love speed. I'm not routing for this but could be a surprise on draft Day.
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I don't particularly like Keenum so for him to compete with Bagent for #2 is fine by me. We need people to throw the ball in camp this is a much better option than any UDFA.
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They gave you a C+ on Tyler Booker?
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This is interesting, Allen was going to draft Brisker at pick 49 when he was HC at NO.
- Yesterday
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FWIW, when I started the mock draft comparison I had no idea what the outcome would be. I didn't cherry pick the mocks, I just took the first ones on that site, in order. If research shows me i was off base, then I readjust, Im not just looking for data to prove Im right. THe reason i think Im right is that the data tells me that. Anyway, I dont care about mocks, I was just rebutting your statement that he was widely considered lower and less than he is, and then i looked and low and behold, his median draft was 13th. All I care about is film. I read and listen to people and their opinions, and then I go and see if those opinions are borne out on film. When I look at Banks, I see a smooth, athletic blocker with great technique, when I look at Campbell I see a stiff player who cant handfight, and plays too high. When I look at membou I see an undersized player who doesnt play to the whistle, and who's heart doesnt really seem to be in it. I didnt pick Banks at random and then look for info to prove myself right - this isnt an exercise in ego - it's just the result of wanting to find the best LT pick for the Bears, and I come out that that is Banks.
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Im not sure about the "problem" of having 3 LTs in camp for several reasons. First off, unless you think Braxton Jones is going to ascend in some way he hasnt yet, theres not real reason to worry about his reps. He's had his time, and wont be healthy until later anyway. Secondly, if one of these players clearly beats the others, then your LT position is set, and thats a good thing no matter whether you hoped Amagadje would get more time to develop or whatever Third, all these players can play inside too, and we have no real depth, so there is a place for them on the roster. Fourth, Jones is nearing a new contract, and I doubt we will want to pay him market value. Fifth, every year there are injuries. A you say AZ54, it's lying season, so indicating that you dont want 3 LTs might be a tell that you do LOL
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I hope Kiran is the guy they took in round 3 with high hopes. Even if they take someone at 10 like Banks, they will find a spot to play and carry the Bears for years. The Bears avoided the trenches for decades, I'd be fine going OL DL every year round 1. So give me Bank/Campbell or Pierce/Grant and I'll be satisfied.
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Months of work doesn't mean months of work on 1 player. These are media talking heads once they get their notes put together their job is to go out and make money talking about it. That's why they are usually late to the party on adjusting draft boards and even then a lot of that is in response to rumors, as opposed to their own re-evaluation. Even though we all disagree to some extent I find all of our combined research here on this board to be more accurate on trends that will happen in April vs the media. That is players moving up/down on draft day versus where they were slated pre-combine. One of the reasons for that is because of the debate where we force ourselves to dig deeper (as seen above) to validate one side or the other. As far as Banks goes I agree he's the best of the LT options especially if we want that in Week 1 because of Braxton's injury. All of this depends on the mystery of what our staff think about Braxton and Kiran. I listened and watched the mannerisms of Poles and Johnson as they answered questions on them this past week. My suspicion is they are content to go forward with those 2. Most telling was Poles as he talked about how he'd have a logjam of 3 players at one position for camp and he didn't seem to like that idea. Then I reminded myself it's lying season.
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They'd put up a statue of you in the new stadium if you pull that off.
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I look at mock drafts and expert opinions like I do politics. I listen to what they say and, if interested, do individual research. The real draft experts that have the resources and inside info aren't saying anything they don't want us to hear, because they are working for a team. We all can see the guys that are going to be great, but the second tier can be hit and miss. Details like work ethic, football IQ, processing speed, scheme fit and love of the game are keys to determining value. Even college coaches lie their assess off in their praise of their prospects. For reputations sake, I can guarantee they are telling the truth behind closed doors, especially to their pro buddies. Relationships are everything. Enough my rambling. Believe nothing! 😜
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can you post the full list , I want to see if the mock draft I did on the Barroom network( that you do drafts on the live show) is on there. I prefer to trust certain people that were former scouts or been doing this for years and get paid for it. 1000 on a list doesn't matter to me because anyone can pick a name and put on a show that 1100 people watch and pretend their credible because they say so. Here is reputable NFL people I pay attention to. Ourlads / former scouts that do draft reports that 26 teams pay to look at. Ourlads #12 the third T on the board. Daniel Jeremiah ( every one knows him) he has him ranked 31 and the third highest T. Dane Brugler ( the beast) #21 4 th T on the board. GBNDReport ranked 24th the 4th T on the board. Huddle report ( top 50 accuracy last year 86%) ranked 18th the 3rd T Draft Countdown ( former scouts run this site) 21 and 3rd rated OT. Draft Buzz, ( Like them too) #7 top T Matt Miller ranked 8th player top T Windy City Gridiron Jacob Infante ( I follow him on X and he puts in a lot of time analyzing players. ) ranked 18 3 rd rated OT I don't really pay attention to PFF or ESPN so I'm not going to bother looking them up. I guess the only thing anyone can say is there is no consensus on his ability. Being there is opinions all over the board tells me they're questions on how great he may be. No one said he's bad . Almost everyone said a competent NFL starter and a few I like said the best LT in the draft. Many project him a OG. You can continue to show me stuff that support your opinion and I can too but whether he is the best T in the draft or not , I still don't think the bears are drafting a T at #10.
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No I showed you 21 mock drafts, and in 65% of them he went 13 or earlier. he only dropped past 13, 1/3 of the time. Thats a consensus that he is worth 13. The median (middle value) was 13. This isnt a case where you should take a mathematical mean average. That would be like if we asked 10 people how much money you owe me. 9 of them (including you) say you dont owe me anything, but I say you owe me a Million Dollars. Im full of crap of course, but if you do an average, then you owe me $100,000? No youd say the majority of people agree you owe nothing. Same math here. So Banks is widely considered to go around 13. So 10 is not too early for him at all. In fact it's a few outliers like.... wait for the drumroll... PFF that say he's worth 25 that brings the numbers down anyway. PFF is ruining everyone's draft valuations and expected draft outcomes with their terrible rankings and simulators.
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So the LT is not clear cut in this draft and the other positions of need are deep (DT,RB,DE). We have 2 potential LTs on the roster but one has a contract expiring and the other needs time to develop. Two LT prospects, Banks and Campbell, are projected top 12 with projections to be good/great LT or great G. They are projected to be as good as Braxton/Kiran off the bat. If Banks or Campbell are there at 10, the Bears have to weigh their value against prospects in 2026 they could draft vs Kirans development or the slim chance Braxton excels and deserves a contract extension. If Kiran doesn't overcome Braxton this year, the Bears are looking at later tier prospects to draft for 2026 and beyond since they should improve. The conclusion is the Bears have to seriously consider LT this draft. This is why Banks is talked about. If Banks cannot take and hold down the LT position, he will take Thuneys position and we hope Kiran can.