BearFan PHX

I made this (optimistic!) prediction a week or two ago, and Im gonna stick with it this year - well see how right or wrong I got it. My total guess, assuming LT isnt a total disaster, and Caleb isnt running for his life: Caleb Williams 4,050 yards passing DJ Moore 800 yds receiving Rome Odunze 1,050 yds receiving Luther Burden 600 yds receiving Colston Loveland 750 yds receiving Cole Kmet 350 yds receiving HBs 500 yds receiving

I assume you were asking my opinion on the 2022 draft as part of an argument to prove that Poles is good. So i answered the main point.

See this is the problem. All I care about is the Bears. You seem to care about winning points with me. We will see how this all works out in time.

The stats are painting the wrong picture. You say he is wide open on 80% of his catches. You also say he has low targets. This means he doesnt get open often. It means when a defense fails, he is WIDE open and can catch. ANYONE who is wide open can catch. But he doesnt get open enough. Apparently we DO have a blue chip TE now. So why pay TE2 $11.6M a year when you have so many mouths to feed on offense anyway? You can get a cheaper inline TE2 and improve the team in other ways. The only reason you want to keep him is that once someone is on the team, you ALWAYS want to keep them. To you, someone on the team is family, and someone who isnt currently on the team is not. But maybe youd love a different player we could get with that money on the defensive line? Kmet doesnt suck, but we are paying him too much, and those resources could do more good for us somewhere else. Thats why I think we will trade him next year or this year at the deadline.

Dude calm down - its like you feel anything less than an A+ is an attack on family or something. You're obsessively overly positive about every member of the team. Ive already said that Poles has done a lot of good things. Im not trying to get rid of him now. I think he has done some things well and other things less well, and also received credit for things that he really didnt do - like Carolina winning in the last second so we could have CW. It's OK to have a nuanced opinion that includes positives and negatives. Maybe your psychological idea that people are entirely negative or positive applies to you, but for most of us, there is good and bad in everything. But Poles doesnt need you to defend him from me. Here are some partial lists off the top of my head THE GOOD disciplined cap management good picks in the secondary THE BAD Eberflus Getsy Waldron Morgan Claypool Velus Jones Nate Davis THE MIDDLE Extending Kmet DJ Moore THE QUESTIONABLE the OL over his tenure the DL over his tenure THE WAYS HE GOT LUCKY Caleb Williams

agree with all of this. In not knocking what Poles DID do, just saying that he gets credit for being lucky too. If Carolina wins 2 more games, we end up with Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams, and this all looks really different.

funny. you didnt post tape, you posted stats. Im saying YOU should look at the tape. Kmet is decent but not great. He doesnt get open vs man coverage, either by moves or west coast style body position. He is stiff, and in only open when there is a hole in the zone. Why do you think his targets are low? Because he isnt open. Yes, he can catch the ball when he is open and you throw it to him. A lot of guys can. But he isnt worth what we are paying him, especially now with Loveland on the roster. Time will tell.

no, but that is his role now. i agree hes not that good at it. But What i said was you can find an inline blocker cheaper to replace him. No matter what they said about him coming into the draft, he has gotten better at run blocking, and he has not been a gronkowski type at all. he deosnt get open against man, either with moves or body position. he isnt particularly well known for contested catches either. Hes just a big body that runs like Frankenstein, loping and stiff, and yes against zone, sometimes he is open. That is true for every TE. he doesnt even have particularly soft hands, but if hes open and you throw it to him, he can catch it. But he isnt a difference maker on 3rd down or anything like that. hes not been a QB safety blanket at all. He's just a decent average NFL TE. And you can get them cheaper or better yet, on a rookie deal. I think he is gone next year, or possibly at this years trading deadline. We will see. I DO think he has a chance to prove himself this year and change this, but i havent seen it from him on tape yet, so until he does, i think he isnt long for this team.

We'll see. Like i said, I do agree he has value. But with so many mouths to feed, I suspect he will be gone next year, or maybe even at the trade deadline this year? I have heard rumors (so who knows whether they are true or not) that the Patriots and Chargers might be interested in Kmet. But I doubt we trade him now - gotta see the rookies do it on the field first. He just doesnt have any wiggle to get open, and he isnt known for tough contested catches. He gets open in gaps in zone defenses, and catches OK, but i think there are a lot of cheaper guys that can do that and block too? Thats why im saying this. but its not like Leno or Fields. Im not saying he sucks. I just dont think there is much room for him on our team soon.

We had some pretty bad players on the IL last year, but youre right coaching will help a LOT too. fair.

I think with the new OL, if the LT position is solid, we could expect an average number of sacks this year, which would look like heaven considering where we've been! It's hard to talk about incremental change from the previous stat since most of those guys wont be on the line this year. I think it's just a new unit, and should look pretty good. Average at least!

100%, but it wasnt as if Poles made that happen. When we traded the rights to Young, we could have had CJ stroud, and there was no guarantee that Carolina would give us the #1 pick the next year. We got VERY lucky, and to get Williams out of it was a godsend. But Poles didnt know that would happen. So I dunno if we can give him all the credit for that?

totally agree

You've got to be kidding. Everything I wrote just said that Kmet's role is AS a blocker. I said he could be replaced by another inline blocker. I dont think he is the 9th best TE. I dont think he is good at getting open either. As for value, it's not just the pick. If he is as good as you say he is, he will get better than a 5th round pick. If he is only worht a 5th round pick then he isnt the 9th best TE. You gotta pick a lane. But it's also the $10M in cap space savings (and then #11.6M after that). I'm not saying he is without value. I am saying you could convert his value into another blocking TE, and have more left over to help the team in other ways. Or you could trade him for an edge or something. And use the money to extend a player, or sign another free agent. Since you are in the mode of saying people's opinions come from some psychological way of thinking - I think you are too attached to anyone that's on the roster. Good teams get rid of good players to get better. If you've ever wanted a trade down in the draft, it's the same thing as moving Kmet. You give something of value, to get back something of value. Usually more than one thing. So my message isnt that Kmet has to go. Im not saying he is terrible and should be on the street. Im saying he is GOOD, but not worth what we pay him, and Id rather have the value somewhere else. I also think the Bears will think that too. Not necessarily today, but ive been saying since january that i dont think Kmet will be on the team next year. So unless the offer is really rich, you wait until Loveland is established, and then you look for moves at the trade deadline, or during the offseason.

agree. I understand the prudence of signing them for long terms deals, but we gotta see what weve got first. Ill add in Nate Davis as another example. He looked GREAT on film, and showed up as an unmotivated turd!

I think the idea is that if you trade Kmet at some point, with the $10M you save off the cap, and with the draft picks you get for trading him, you can help the team more than Kmet will. If you want an inline blocking TE, they are not hard to find cheaper, and you can add more in other places. The reason you'd trade Kmet is the same reason you'd trade down in the draft.

Cole is a very capable player. Im definitely not saying he sucks. I'm saying he isn't worth a big contract in the long run. Next year is his last year, because I don't see him getting a big payday from the Bears after that. But does he help us now, before that? Absolutely. He does have value. But that's also why someone will pay him more than we will. And if we arent going to keep him, unless Im missing something in compensatory formula, its better to get something for him before that. I'm guessing the trade deadline, if not during the offseason next year. Teams with good rosters cant afford good but not great players. For example we got Akiem Hicks from the Patriots in a move when he had one year left on his contract. It's not that Belichick didnt know how good Hicks was, he, and we both agreed he was a very good player. But we had the cap space for him, and when you have a packed roster like the Patriots did, you gotta replace those guys with good draft picks instead of second contracts to keep it going, and you gotta let guys go before the last year of their deal if youre not going to pay them big. So I disagree as to whether Kmet will be traded, but i agree with you that he definitely has value as a player.

I think this is likely actually. In a vacuum, I think Kmet is gone next year. Im not an expert on compensatory picks, so if Im missing something there Im all ears, but if youre gonna lose Kmet next year, you might as well get something for him now. The trade deadline seems likely. I've been saying Kmet is on the bubble since like January. Now that we have Loveland and Burden, it seems obvious that we will get another inline blocking TE rather than pay Kmet. might as well get something for it.

you're right. we sink or swim based on Caleb's development. Im optimistic about him. He surely has all the talent around him, and the coaching should be miles better. But you're also right that we didn't even get the most out of that roster with Flus. Hell, he single handedly lost 3 games for us last year AND another 3 the year before. We will be better. Players should be giving maximum effort. And if any guys turn out to be the new Nate Davis, I am sure they will be gone or at least benched quickly. Wow. We might have an actual football team in Chicago?

Exactly. There are many reasons for optimism with this roster, coaching staff and QB. But the Bears have "won the offseason" before. You do that by changing radically, which, frankly, good teams dont have to do! If I had to bet, Id bet on us becoming really good this year. Im not pessimistic about it at ALL. But the Yankees, and former Redskins and Raiders have taught us that you can assemble a fantastic roster and still fail to gel into a champion. I have faith in Johnson and his staff to get the most out of these guys. There is every reason to believe greatness is coming. But like you, I need to see it on the field. I won't be surprised at all when it comes, but I can't be upset about a power ranking before we do anything on the field. It's about right. Could it be top 10 or top 5 by the end of the year? SURE it could. And Id think ending, say 7th, is more likely than ending 21st. But you're right - you gotta show it to me - I look forward to seeing it!

for sure. And this is why I didnt like Omarion Hampton too. The guy cant cut without that extra step. When you can get going downhill fast, and still make cuts without losing forward momentum, and if you have vision, that's gonna be a good outcome.

My god you are an idiot. Your dimestore psychology, your ridiculous evaluations of players simply because they are on the roster. You've literally been wrong about EVERYTHING we've disagreed about for YEARS. And you turn that into me being arrogant that i always think im right. But thats not it - its just how OFTEN you are wrong. I dont have this issue with any other member of this board. We all say things that are right sometimes and wrong sometimes. We do it in mutual respect. I learn a ton from the other members of this board. But you are just baffling how incredibly stupid you are. And its not about me. It really isnt. So you can keep saying your ridiculous theories etc, but your analysis of my personality is on par with your analysis of the players - COMPLETELY whacked. When you posted to Adam that wasnt a private conversation, it was part of the thread. It's OK for anyone to comment on it. Its OK for us to have opinions that arent the same as the pundits you read. It's OK for us to know that PFF is nonsense. And this wave of psychological analysis is just cringe. TO BE CLEAR - I do not think Im smarter than everyone, I just think youre incredibly dumb. So just being just regular, Im smarter than you. But thats not ego - its a low bar Im claiming. How's that for analysis? Dont like it? Then keep your analysis of me to yourself ya moron. P.S. Im not even mad. I'm just out of patience for your endless nonsense.

total BS. You cannot boil every person down into a negative person or a positive person. You are saying every opinion they have isnt authentic, it's just in harmony with this incredibly oversimplified world view. This is not taught in psychology. Also, the reason i didnt like Fields isnt because i have a negative personality, its because I could clearly see that he sucked. And time has proven that out too. Im surprised youre still trying to argue this. But no, it is not that everything everyone says is a fake opportunity to prove their worldview was right. Instead, people look at facts, and make opinions about those facts. So you have it backwards. I am not a negative person who was looking for evidence to hate of Fields. I am a football fan who could see that despite the stats, Fields sucked. Fields sucking came first, then my opinion came after that. Do you remember when you didnt like Caleb, and I was telling everyone he was gonna be great? Was that because Im a positive person who only sees the good, and you were a negative person who only sees the bad? Your theory here is a self serving one meant to dismiss the substance of any of our opinions and instead attribute them to some deep binary choice that we are either positive or negative people. It's ridiculous, and insulting, and more than that it's really wrong. if your psychology classes taught you that you can neatly put every human into an overgeneralized box like that, then you got ripped off. Every day i make both positive and negative comments in here. Like everyone, I am a fully dimensional person with all kinds of thoughts. Your amateur psychological evaluation is nonsense.

Right. What's done is done. I can put an asterix on Pole's handling of the draft board, but we have a nicegroup of players. And honestly if Trapilo turns out great, then I'm gonna give Poles an A for the draft anyway. He definitely got an A in free agency. Now it's time to develop those players and see what weve got!

getting guys open and then finding them quick is absolutely the name of the game, and Johnson is a genius at it. We have as good a shot of putting together a truly dangerous offense as we have had in many many years. This WR/TE room is now better than Marshall, Jeffries and Bennett. And Odunze is gonna surprise a LOT of people. We did not see him used properly last year. I think he might be our leading receiver for yards this year.