BearFan PHX

No I showed you 21 mock drafts, and in 65% of them he went 13 or earlier. he only dropped past 13, 1/3 of the time. Thats a consensus that he is worth 13. The median (middle value) was 13. This isnt a case where you should take a mathematical mean average. That would be like if we asked 10 people how much money you owe me. 9 of them (including you) say you dont owe me anything, but I say you owe me a Million Dollars. Im full of crap of course, but if you do an average, then you owe me $100,000? No youd say the majority of people agree you owe nothing. Same math here. So Banks is widely considered to go around 13. So 10 is not too early for him at all. In fact it's a few outliers like.... wait for the drumroll... PFF that say he's worth 25 that brings the numbers down anyway. PFF is ruining everyone's draft valuations and expected draft outcomes with their terrible rankings and simulators.

Researching what football writers really do think about Banks. Went to https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/ and took notes on the first 21 Mock Drafts they collected. I got a good cross section, and got bored after 21 of them, but this includes CBS, NBC, FOX, PFN, PFF, SI, Barstool - most of the big ones. Pushing the numbers around I found a few things. Some of them fly in the face of what the mock draft simulators have been telling us. 85% of them had Banks still available to us at pick 10, thats good news for me. 65% of them had Banks off the board by 13. And 13 was Banks' median draft position. So taking him at 10 is right in line with value in these peoples eyes. You cant count on him at 17 or 20 in the trade down scenarios. PFF and a few others have him dropping to 25th which is why the simulators are saying he'll be there, but 2/3 of these had him gone by 13. In some mocks he went as high as: 4 to NE (Fox Sports) 5 to Jacksonville (USA Today) 9 to New Orleans (NBC Sports) Draft Buzz has him ranked as the #7 player in the draft, and as the #1 OT in the draft says about him: Banks projects as a high-ceiling prospect who could excel at either tackle or guard, with the versatility to be a day-one impact starter at either spot. His advanced pass set technique and fluid movement skills translate beautifully to tackle in systems emphasizing quick-game concepts and RPOs, while his natural leverage and explosive power could make him an elite interior force. Though slightly shorter than ideal for tackle, his technical mastery and exceptional awareness more than compensate for any length limitations. His processing speed and technical foundation project particularly well to zone-based systems where his fluid movement skills and expertise in combination blocks can be maximized. While he's shown clear starter ability at tackle, his unique skill set could reach even greater heights at guard, where his natural leverage and explosive power could make him one of the league's premier interior linemen. His quick mental processing and natural feel for angles should allow him to dominate at either position. Banks has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player at either spot, with his ceiling potentially even higher at guard. His floor appears to be that of a quality starting tackle, with All-Pro potential if kicked inside. ---- I think the PFF grade we are all routinely assuming is correct about him is instead a big outlier among the rest of the Football Evaluation sites. This doesnt prove anything, except that Banks is not projected to be a mid round, non blue chipper. That's just PFF talk.

yeah, it's lying season for sure. never know how to take it. Johnson says Jones is great, Allen says Tyler Warren is great. etc. One thing that I like about Poles and now Johnson too, is they don't lie by mumbling and saying nothing like Belichick does, they lie by saying truly positive things, things that are true about players. When they say they like Jone's length they DO! But as to how that figures into a total grade and who they're riding with or dropping, there's no info there. They wont compare players for example. But they will analyze the positive qualities of anyone. And a big unknown is whether Roushar has already told Johnson that Jones or Amagadje is a perfect specimen for them and they think they can scheme and coach him into a dominant player. That they know exactly why they failed before, and know they can fix it. If Roushar said that about Amagadje for example, then we already have our blue chip starting LT on the roster. I would be surprised if this was true, but if it was, I wouldnt have any way of knowing that, so my draft predictions would be really skewed

One more point: when I say I don't listen to writers and sites, I'm being too vague. I totally listen. I hear what they praise about a player, and I hear what they complain about about a player, and when I watch film, I'm testing those ideas to see if theyre true or not. By then I've probably even forgotten who said what. THeyre just ideas to test. The thing is, even if I wanted to "trust the experts" they often disagree with each other. So there isn't even a specific point of view. Then you're picking who you trust most among the pundits, and no one is always right, so I listen, but then I see if I see what they see.

now we are REALLY agreeing. This means most positions are deeper than OT. And if you think (like I do) that we need a starter quality OT, and find none likely available by our 2nd round picks, then you'd be on board with all my crazy plans, like taking Banks at 10, taking Ersery at 10, or trading down in the 1st but still in Ersery range? There are great HBs, S, WR, TE and some help on the DL too in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but nothing for quality LTs.

This is how we can disagree and both be right I dont care what the sites say, I just look at the player, but it's all good that we just don't agree on Banks. That's cool. OOPS hit return too soon, see the last part below...

Oh hell yes. That draft is so good, it's kind of impossible! I would do cartwheels, and for the record, I doubt very seriously I can physically do cartwheels LOL Can you do something similar on nfldraftbuzz.com? To me, thats the much tougher one with those good players rated higher. I want Banks of course. I like three safeties; Emmanwori, Starks and Watts, so great there. I also think Landon Jackson is underrated and a really good pass rusher. These players are right in line with the guys I like, but I doubt they last this far? But for the draft simulator game? This is an A+ draft for me. Take someone else instead of Mason Taylor and pick up TE Oronde Gadsden in the 5th, and see if you can add WR Jack Bech at 45, and I would just weep for joy. EDIT: you know, I dont see Banks falling this far, but Ersery is ripe for around the 19th pick. If you could make these same trades, this could be realistic with Ersery instead of Banks. Thatd be pretty good.

I listed the top three picks. not hiding anything. Urlacher and Brown were taken the year before Gabriel was head of scouting. His record is right there, and it's really awful. Well, I respect your right to have an opinion, just as you do mine, but since we disagree we dont share the same opinions, and that's fine too. I promise Im not attacking you, but I think Gabriel is a fool, and i think we need a LT. And its totally cool if you disagree. I like what youre trying to do here - find some objective metric to prove who won the debate. The only thing is, Im not predicting what the Bears WILL do, but what I think they SHOULD do. So there will be a reckoning over the season (or two) that will sort out whether Jones will work out, or Banks etc - we will see how Ersery and Campbell does wherever he lands etc. But I wont say the draft outcome proves who is right, but I do agree that the next couple of years will? I try to read what I can, and then relate it to what I see on tape. I did post a few short highlight reels here so people can see what Banks and Campbell actually look like, how much smoother Banks is etc - but the point youve made that a 2 min film doesnt tell the story is absolutely right. I think I put a disclaimer on my post too, because I agree with that. But I watch 3 or 4 game halves against quality opponents (top pick DEs) and I see every snap of those halves. I see a lot - and no one is perfect, so I see the failures too. The question I ask myself is what are the attributes I see. What style do they have. Where are their talents and can the weaknesses be coached out or are they fundamental. For example Banks may get beaten at times, but there is no pattern to it. Campbell gets his ass kicked on hand fighting constantly. Banks has great body position and anchors well, Campbell plays high on every snap. He is strong, but NFL players will take that inherent advantage away, and I think Campbell's poor technique will be exposed where Banks will grow and mature because his fundamentals are solid. He just turned 21 too, so he is young. Roushar will be great for him. None of that gets into sportswriter articles. I honestly doubt how much film they actually even watch. I dont think a sportwriters job is to find and tell the truth. I think it's to get eyeballs, so they play in the narratives like making Marvel sequels to a crowd that's already shown an appetite for those stories. I love the TTNL guys this time of year, because they watch film, and he includes his dad who was a college head coach and was offered positions as OL coach on several NFL teams. I listen to what he says to look at on the film, and over the years Ive educated my eye, especially on the OL, to know what to look for. Now that doesnt mean I agree with everything they say. They like Campbell more than I do. about 15% of the time, I think "that wasnt as bad (or good) an example as what theyre saying" so its a give and take. And over the time with all that watching, I develop an opinion. And it's MY opinion. It well could be wrong, I'm certain it has flaws, but it is earned in hours of watching tape. So I know WHY I think something. I can't just read what writers say and regurgitate to each other (or to be fair, are contrarian on too) and think I know anything. And to me, the perfect example is Membou. These same writers had him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick to convert to guard. Then he shows some athleticism, runs a fast 40 (what does that have to do with playing OT?) and suddenly he's everyone's favorite. That's just reacting to numbers. When I see him on tape I see him give up on plays, his heart isn't in it. I see a Nate Davis in the making. No combine number measures that. So, we disagree on a bunch of things. I suspect that if you saw what I saw, we might agree more. So we disagree on players, and even how to bring in information to make decisions BUT you have every right to your opinion, and no one knows everything (meaning I dont!) so Im not trying to fight or disrespect you. I DO disagree with what you say, but not with you as a person. And lastly I will say that the few things weve argued about before that got heated were about players and coaches already in the NFL with NFL tape on them. When I got dogmatic early about Leno, Fields and Eberflus, I felt I KNEW I was right. And I think time has showed that I was. But I dont have that kind of certainty on any draft picks that haven't played in the NFL yet. I have strong opinions, but I am not convinced that I am RIGHT the way I have been a few times after seeing a couple seasons of NFL work on players and coaches. Any rookie can learn, grow and surprise us. That's not a reason to draft someone just on that hope, but it is a reason for me to admit that I cant be SURE that Campbell wont become a great OT - just that I wouldnt make that bet right now. Hope that all makes sense.

Gabriel was head of scouting during a period of time where we had so many misses in the draft - it is only logical to assume the scouting info was trash. Then as I have read his takes since over the year he sticks out as one of the worst prognosticators of the entire world of sports commentators, which is really saying something. I feel perfectly comfortable saying that he is a total idiot.

I dont understand the faith in Braxton Jones. If you watch the tape from last year, he can be bull rushed into the QB on any down the defense chooses. LT is our biggest hole, and RB is #2.

LOL Gabriel was against drafting Caleb - he is a total moron who fights with users on twitter LOL He was director of scouting for the Bears from 2001 to 2010. Let's look at the Bears top 3 picks during his time directing their scouting department. It's a litany of ineptitude. We should literally do the opposite of what this guy says. Especially when it comes to Offensive Linemen - his eye is just broken. 2001 David Terrell Anthony Thomas (decent pick) Mike Gandy 2002 Marc Colombo Roosevelt Williams Terrence Metcalf 2003 Michael Haynes Rex Grossman Charles Tillman (good pick!) 2004 Tommie Harris (good pick) Tank Johnson Bernard Berrian 2005 Cedric Benson Mark Bradley Kyle Orton 2006 Danieal Manning Devin Hester (good pick, but only a KR) Dusty Dvoracek 2007 Greg Olsen (good pick) Dan Bauzin Garrett Wolfe 2008 Chris Williams Matt Forte (good pick) Earl Bennett 2009 Jarron Gilbert Jauquin Iglesias Henry Melton 2010 Major Wright Corey Wooten Joshua Moore

I agree, Banks would be an upgrade at LT, and if you see a better LT next year or the year after in the draft, then Banks is an All Pro guard. If he's there at 10, I think he's the smartest pick. My only caveat to this plan, is if you love Ersery, and can package our two 2nd rounders to move up into the late first round to grab him, then you can spend 10 on Jeanty or the DT from Michigan. But you gotta KNOW you can get Ersery then. Otherwise you can take Banks or Ersery at 10, and grab a HB like Kaleb Johnson in the 2nd along with DL, S, WR or TE. Either way thats a very solid draft.

to compare, here is Campbell, look how stiff he is, how high he plays, and his bad handfighting, plus how he is leaky inside. Yuck! This film is 1:38 long - well under 2 min

I think in the end, this all comes down to player evaluation - this is the nature of our debate. We all say we would take a blue chip LT if he was available, so the question is whether Banks is one. Here is a highlight film. There are some bad reps on it too. He is young, only newly 21. But if you look at the good reps, against premium competition, you see the makings of a Pro Bowl LT. He looks fluid and his hand fighting is excellent. He plays with great bend and pad level. Good anchor. He delivers a good punch and absorbs and tames violence at an elite level. He seeks out contact, not a catcher. He is a beast. I think we should consider that he is a blue chip prospect, coming out young as a Junior, who could really benefit from being molded by Roushar. Draft Buzz says ceiling is All Pro LT, and FLOOR is All Pro OG: (from Draft Buzz) Banks projects as a high-ceiling prospect who could excel at either tackle or guard, with the versatility to be a day-one impact starter at either spot. His advanced pass set technique and fluid movement skills translate beautifully to tackle in systems emphasizing quick-game concepts and RPOs, while his natural leverage and explosive power could make him an elite interior force. Though slightly shorter than ideal for tackle, his technical mastery and exceptional awareness more than compensate for any length limitations. His processing speed and technical foundation project particularly well to zone-based systems where his fluid movement skills and expertise in combination blocks can be maximized. While he's shown clear starter ability at tackle, his unique skill set could reach even greater heights at guard, where his natural leverage and explosive power could make him one of the league's premier interior linemen. His quick mental processing and natural feel for angles should allow him to dominate at either position. Banks has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player at either spot, with his ceiling potentially even higher at guard. His floor appears to be that of a quality starting tackle, with All-Pro potential if kicked inside. This film is 1:49 long - under 2 min.

when I talk about reaching, I mean drafting earlier than the average team might, but I dont think Ersery is a lesser talent or there would be no point. But I understand the fundamental difference of opinion. I dont want Jones, and some people think he is decent and a good placeholder for a year. And if i thought that, I'd probably be talking about Jeanty right now. So I get it, and I respect the difference of opinion. And if we do go into the season riding Jones and Amagadje, I sure hope that they outperform my expectations, maybe due to a better system and better coaching. And I will be thrilled to see it if thats what happens. But just in my gut, after watching some film on all these guys, I would rather see Banks or Ersery than Jones next year, even if it meant taking a guy everyone thought would go at 25 at 10. If Ersery is worth the 10th pick, and no trade downs were available, it's OK to spend the value on him thats your evaluation of him i think. So it just comes down to our differences in eval on Banks, Ersery, Jones and Amagadje, and that is the stuff that makes the world go around.

exactly. we disagree about this. I do see LT as a gaping hole that needs filling. so much about this roster is first class, Braxton Jones is the odd man out.

On nfldraftbuzz.com, they had a setting for picking not by draft buzz player rankings, but "consensus" rankings, whatever that is - sounds like a lot of opinions averaged out, I dunno whos opinions but they arent smart. Look at this ridiculous, insane, impossible draft. Whoever is making these consensus evals is really dumb LOL

yes BPA is always the best way to go, but we were unable to fill that LT need in free agency. Its a hard position to fill, and maybe this is the year to do it, and get a guy to protect Caleb for the next 10 years. i think Banks or Ersery could be that guy. Maybe Conerly?

And just to clear that picture a little bit, their player rankings arent necessarily supposed to predict the actual draft order, because raw playing rankings dont take into account teams needs and styles. If they get it generally right, that means the evaluations were right, but draft order is something else. I love the DraftBuzz simulator on random 2 setting. It does seems to have Travis Hunter and some others dropping, maybe unrealistically, due to team needs, but they do take the guys i think are more reasonable for us early, so its like a worst case scenario simulator. I guess thats kind of like having 12 players go before your pick at 10 in a way, if im not taking Hunter if he falls because its not realistic, because if he was taken, someone else would be available instead, but I think its a good way to make sure you can get what you need no matter what happens. It helps answer questions like: who are the 2nd round and 3rd round HBs you KNOW will be there? What defensive help is available in rounds 2 and 3 on the DL or at S What skill players, WR or TE are available in 2 and 3 and for me, the question that slants everything else for me this year: Where can we get a starting quality LT at pick #39? And I think the answer to that is it's too late by then. That's the main question I hope the simulators and mock drafts can answer. I have a feeling Ersery is going a lot earlier than people think. So Ive been running scenarios where I take an OT at 10 no matter whether its Banks or a reach. ANd Im finding lots of good talent at HB, S, DT, WR and TE in rounds 2 and 3. But no reliable OTs.

That makes a lot of sense generically in an average draft, and Jeanty is definitely the best back in the draft by far, and a good pick at 10, but I dug into that idea, and no one I like at OT falls to the 2nd round reliably. Often i had to go to Grant from W&M and he's definitely an intriguing project but he isnt gonna start at LT on day one the way I think Banks, Ersery or Conerly could. This is what keeps painting me into the corner about taking an OT at 10 and even reaching if necessary to get one who is slotted in the later part of the round, and having to take him early. The truth is there are some very good backs available in round 2, and defensive help too, especially at safety. None of those players is Jeanty, but the falloff there is a lot less than OT. To me, the only way to take Jeanty, would be if we could package our 2nd rounders together and move up to snag Ersery at 20 or 25 or something like that. If we had that pick there locked down, then Id feel very comfortable taking a non OT, especially Jeanty. But without that certainty, I feel like we're boxed into taking OT. Our two holes are OT and HB. After that we could add talent, but the starters are filled if we dont get a guy at any position. But right now, OT is wide open, and Swift aint gonna cut it for me. So OT and HB in the first three picks. (I say three picks becasue we pick #39 and then again #41, and New Orleans between the two is looking for the same kind of safety we are, so Id take the S at #39 and the HB at #41 right after, even though the HB is more important to us.

and we can debate and criticize things we dont agree with too.

I do think Bagent has trade value. QBs also get hurt, and having a good backup can save a season. You might be right that a 6th is what others might pay for him right now, but I wouldnt let him go for less than a 3rd or maybe even more because of what he is worth for us. I think Bagent could be a starter somewhere and be in the 15-20 ranked QB in the league in the right situation. I think the Jets would do better with him than JF, for example. Im in no hurry to get rid of him. I think he's pretty damned good. Not Caleb Williams good, but pretty damned good

we need 4 or 5 first round picks every year.

If Bagent is really still QB2, and Keenum is supposed to be a veteran voice for Caleb, then he doesn't really need to be on the 53 man roster to do that? I suppose that opens him up to being poached off the practice squad, but unless there is an injury, why would a team do that and pay his contract, when they could have just signed him already at the same amount? and as QB3, he can already play as an emergency QB if necessary without being on the 53 i think?

I like DraftBuzz's ratings as well. In any draft year, whichever site makes it hardest for me to get the players I want is the one i use. Call it worst case scenario planning. But thats just another way of saying they value the players I like the same way I do. As for next year's draft, my crystal ball is already getting bad reception on this one hahaha