BearFan PHX

I dont have an echo chamber, because I dont care what any of them say! I just look at the film, and make up my own mind. Maybe I'm wrong on my own, but it's not because of an echo chamber! When you (or anyone!) reads the writers, then the narratives start to pile up, and people find patterns, like faces in clouds. We cant help it. Its the nature of believing there are such things as draft experts, and that what they say is data. It isn't. Brugler (for example) doesnt know any more than the other experts do. And I can prove it: If you ask 10 chemistry experts a chemistry question, they will all give you the same correct answer. That is a strong indication that being a chemistry expert means you know about chemistry. This goes for many fields of study and expertise. BUT if you ask 10 top draft experts who the Bears will pick at 10, they will all disagree! Therefore, even if one is right, then you can say 9 out of 10 draft experts are wrong about any given question. Maybe even 10 out of 10. When all the experts disagree, that means being an expert doesn't mean anything. So their opinion is as good as anyone elses. And Im surprised at it frankly. When I look at film of Campbell and Banks it isnt even close for me. It just pops out. I feel like any random person if they watched the film I watched, and looked for the traits i listed a few posts earlier, or even just how smooth they look doing it, would see it too, as clear as day. It's really obvious. How these experts can possibly say Campbell is the better prospect is confounding. It's like saying 2+2=5 - to me it isn't murky, or "one guy is better at ______ and the other is better at ________" it's just so obvious. Banks is better than Campbell in every way. So the experts are reading too much, or theyre looking at 40 times or something. I haven't looked at Campbell's or Banks' combine numbers once. I dont care what the common single phrase about a player is "short arms" or "hasnt progressed" and we all know how deceiving stats can be. These arent data points, they're STORIES for an audience that wants to read them. In an example you'll agree with, look at Erik Lambert! In the past 2 weeks he has stories that claim we're definitely taking at least 15 different players, including Jeanty, Omarion Hampton and TreVayon Henderson at RB with pick 10! He's got CBs, DTs, all three OTs. 15 different answers and rumors. This isnt informative journalism - it's not even MEANT to be - its STORYTELLING. And being right isnt as important as being entertaining. Being provacative is more important than being right! We live in a world of sports writers, many of whom write, as if it were the truth, that Caleb had a really bad rookie year, I have to call BS. I dont know why theyre so stupid. I dont know what affects them so that presumably intelligent people start saying these things. It's kind of scary really. So far from reality. Makes you wonder about other experts in politics, or economics, or medicine or anything! But no matter how many experts say that Membou or Omarion Hampton are top notch football players, I can see the emperor is naked. He just is. Can they possibly develop in the NFL? Of course. Theyre kids. Who can say when the light might go on for a 23 year old and suddenly they get it? But we CAN value where they're at right now as a prospect, what traits they show, what they put on the film. and if you look past how may sacks they're deemed responsible for by PFF, and instead just look at how they do their blocking on film as an athlete; anchor, bend etc etc then the good ones are easy to see from the bad ones. I dont have a show or a way to get clicks on this. I'm just a Bears fan talking about what we should do. So stories aside, I can tell you factually that Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou as a LT prospect. And I can tell you that Banks has everything he needs to become a great NFL player. at LT The rest is just insane. Now, we CAN debate things like whether Jeanty is a better pick than Banks. That's not something you can see on tape. That's a much more complicated, because it's two different positions, etc. But player evals themselves at the top of the draft should be easy. If youre a top 10 pick, it should shine in an obvious way on the tape. And it does. He's not even "OT1 in a draft that is lacking in OTs" thats a narrative. Who the other OTs are doesnt change him as a prospect. He's just a singular person, and you can watch his tape and project him into the NFL based on his current level. Banks is a lot better than Campbell or Membou. It's not really an opinion. The film is the film.

I think a lot of this is an echo chamber too. Your sources tell you a point of view, and then they re-enforce it, until you (anyone not YOU) feel like its true because its confirmed, but the confirmation is really just the same echo chamber. After all the dust clears, dont sleep on Banks. i just hope he is still there when we get our pick.

and on draftbuzz he doesnt make it out of the 1st round now, usually going in the 20s. I think it's hard to know where these guys will go. And its hard to trust the experts on this too, because if being an expert made you right, then the experts would agree, and they dont.

I mostly look at these things: Pad Level Footwork = keeping a base under you as the rusher moves Back Bend = sinking the butt and pushing up to absorb energy Fluidity in the hips = getting reestablished as the angles change Raw Strength = country strong Hand Fighting Punching vs catching = rhythm. when you engage Intelligence = reading stunts, finding the right guy to block Speed in pulling and getting to the 2nd level, if necessary for the position or scheme Desire = play to the whistle or give up And then in doing all this, is it fluid or clumsy. Does it look under control or like chaos is about to erupt at any moment. Also to the idea of how they will pan out, no one can know that of course! All we can do is evaluate where they are right now. How a kid will be in 2 years with NFL coaching is hard to say, but what traits they have, and what problems they have should be apparent in the tape.

Im afraid youre right. I just think its funny that the machine has to go through so many iterations just to land on what the film said from the beginning. DDPhil likes Campbell too, has him as his #2 OT, I think he's got real problems. That's one I disagree on. If Banks is gone, we are free to look at any of the other options like DL or skill position after all. But i really think that Banks is the right choice for us if he falls to us.

youre right! I should have said a pressure. Caleb has great escapability, so a lot of times that Braxton got pushed back it wasnt a sack per se. I do know that on key downs Caleb didnt have as much time as I (or he!) would have liked. I should have said it like that.

The book is out on Braxton now - if you need a sack, you bull rush him. Teams were able to choose which down they wanted a sack on last year. Obviously you cant bull rush someone on every down, it gets predictable and you can scheme in help, but by the second half of the season, on critical downs, it was all bull rush.

exactly and hes only 20. Banks is going to be a plus player in the NFL, especially with a guy like Roushar to guide him - I just worry hell be gone before pick 10.

Draft Buzz has changed their rankings and now Banks is their #6 ranked player overall, OT1. In mock drafts on that site it is almost impossible to get Banks at 10 anymore. I think Banks is light years ahead of Braxton Jones right now, and has room to grow. I think Amagadje has a better chance to be our starter in 2 years than Jones does. And Banks is significantly better than each.

I generally agree, I just find the tape analysis so much better than anywhere else that I put up with it. I agree with him a lot, so when he rants it's less offensive i guess because i agree with the point even if the show is over the top.

Lots of good names there - they would give us better depth and make us more solid in lots of ways. I also think there is something to be said for those core 6 guys on your team who are superheroes. We wont be back here again any time soon (we hope) so we should probably grab an impact player here to be a superhero. And dammit thats a good argument for getting a dominant DT at 10.

he REALLY is. but I also think he's got about as good an eye for analysis as I see on the web. His reads on JF and Caleb were much better from my point of view, than Kurt Warner, and the others included. I do think JT OSullivan does a good job too. But Phil's are just as good, and often more insightful or educational that the youtube ones. Probably because Phil is a giant nerd, and the youtube pros are calibrating the level of detail to what people have the patience to watch. He is particularly good on OL, HB and QB breakdowns. But like with anyone, I dont always agree with him, he claims something, and the film is running, and you can see if you agree with him, or think he's calling it wrong. So I don't hear it like preaching, it's more like a guide to your own analysis. I also like how for draft evaluations, he will show you a complete half of a game, not cherry picked, and he will show you like 4 different opponents, especially the ones where they go up against other good players. And they will leave in and call out the bad reps too. No one is perfect. So it gives a fuller view of the players?

I think that's all fair. If someone thinks Jeanty is a better choice for example, I can't say they're wrong. All I can say is that Banks is a hell of a LT prospect, and the film doesn't agree with the weird media narratives I've been reading. I'm glad you watched it. You can see they really know what they're saying, and I've learned so much watching them over the years. And like i said, DDP has a huge ego and he is a total blowhard. When the tape is rolling, I love him, the rest of the time, it's like a WWE wrestler talking trash LOL And like you said, when you see him against the great pass rushers, you really get to see it. He also shut down Will Anderson when he was a freshman. But moslty, i just see his pad level, his intelligence, his desire, his excellent feet and hips. He looks really good to me, and at 20 years old, he can still put some weight on and get coached up to be even better. His ceiling is sky high I think, and his floor is capable. If we want a LT, he'd be my pick.

OK so here is the TTNL breakdown of Kelvin Banks vs Georgia. Im only part way through it, but what Im seeing is SO good, I thought Id share it already. Do yourself a favor and start it around 19:00 - it's all self serving hype BS before that. But they realyl do know OL play and you can really see how good Banks is. And he's only 20! Anyway, I think you generally need to be a paying member to get the hidden link. I'll share this one as an example of how good their videos are I pay $10 a month to subscribe to them. GREAT pre draft film breakdowns, and great in season Bears breakdowns too. Both Phil and his Dad have coached OL, and if you listen and compare to whatever experience on education you (or I) have in football, it all lines up. These guys know what they're talking about, and you get to see it with your own eyes as they make claims to see if you agree. I will also admit that DDP is a blowhard. Im not following him because I want to be his friend or think hes an awesome guy. I only listen to his film analysis, and it's usually excellent. But how can anyone look at this film and say Banks plays too high? See if this link works for you guys without paying?

Interesting you say that because DDP just posted that game with commentary by him and his dad (who was a big time coach who was offered multiple OL coaching positions in the NFL) - Ill watch it int he next couple of days and tell you what i saw?

absolutely. if he is just average, then picking him at 10 is a big mistake. It comes down to player evaluation. I have my opinion, other poeple have theirs and Poles and our staff have theirs too. i wish I knew what it was, but we cant. Everything I see on film tells me he is the best LT in this draft, and while he still has some work to do (no one is perfect) he looks like a day one starter to me with really high upside. Hes still young, and he doesnt seem lazy at all. One of his biggest knocks is that he is too aggressive and reaches to deliver his punch rather than waiting another half a beat. Thats the personality of a worker and not a lazy catcher type. That tells me he will want coaching and his heart is in it.

One wonders where Austin Booker is left in all of this. He's still young, and maybe he can come on this year, but it feels like his window to impress was only open a very short time. I know DA likes em bigger, but as a pash rush specialist, Booker could have a role on this team IF he is productive. He'd better bring it quick or he's gonna be gone before he even got a chance to get his footing. Pressure is on, Booker. Prove us all wrong!

I think he was talking about Campbell playing upright, which is what I see too. around 2:35?

I know that he would make a great OG, but Im saying why consider that when he plays LT really well? I mean, you could probably take any really good starting LT in the league, and put them at OG and theyd be even better because LT is harder, you have no help. But why would that be any kind of negative on them playing LT? That they could be a better OG doesnt make them any less good as a LT than they are? Like saying Banks is a top notch LT, but he would be even better at basketball so we shouldnt draft him at LT? And Im saying, my opinion, Banks is a really good LT right now, and has TONS of untapped potential. I think with Roushar's help, if he is dedicated, the sky's the limit for him. Hes good now, but he has traits to be even better if he polishes up. And he's young. As to competing, yes. Whoever is the best player should start of course. If Banks is everything I say, and Jones shows up and kills everyone and dominates, then of course he is the starter. But Im saying I think that is less likely than Banks being that guy.

I think by the tape, Banks is a considerably better LT than Jones, and will grow. I dont think we will move him to OG. He would do well there too, but hes got the goods to play LT at a high level, so why move him inside?

Outstanding. This is basically my preferred draft, although i dont usually find a trade down, so id have to choose between Saywer and Fanning. I also oscillate on which DL it'll be in the 2nd. But this is the way.

Of course. Any player that kicks ass on the field earns the respect that this is currently their level. Nothing said before can ever overshadow what they do on the field, or put on tape. The only caveat to that is that a couple good games doesn't overshadow a long history. If you do it, and do it consistently over multiple weeks, or the whole season, especially when against good opponents, then hell yeah.

Yes, I was probably over speaking in passion in regards to the #10 pick, Warren will be a starter in this league somewhere. I just dont think he will shine in the NFL. I dont think his game translates to the kind of numbers he had in college. Id jump at him in the 3rd round, thatd be a no brainer, so his real value is somewhere between 70 and 10. Id say below 20, maybe lower. But I also want to repeat that Im just projecting how the player I saw on film will do in the NFL. So how their current toolbox will apply. There will be some players who will learn from NFL coaches and become a lot better. You can guess at who those will be too based on attitude, flashes of tools that they arent consistent with etc., but some player in the first round will shine and prove any doubters wrong. So Im not saying I KNOW Warren is gonna just be average in the NFL, but if I had to bet right now, that'd be my bet. I also think he's a bit of draft smoke all the GMs are using to disguise their true intentions. Maybe he will go early, but I wont be shocked if Warren slides on draft day.

Oh yeah, I forgot to include him, he's amazing too. I would love to us go R1 LT Banks, R2 DL/S, R2 HB Kaleb Johnson, R3 TE Fannin, and pick up WR Jack Bech and then go for depth. And in the 5th round TE Oronde Gadsden is pretty good too!

and Courtland Loveland is a true middle field matchup problem, just like McMillan is. Either one could play the LaPorta role better than Warren. And I know Johnson isn't going to replicate his Detroit offense here, but Warren doesnt really do anything that well. he just has big production numbers. He doesnt body people to get the ball well, and he certainly doesnt get away from anyone. he doesnt break well at the top of his route. He's just a poor man's Kmet. At least Kmet bodies people. They both run like Frankenstein. lol