BearFan PHX

Allocating salary cap $ to players is the most costly thing a team can do, so it makes a pretty good metric to judge how important a player or position is to teams. Looking at Average Annual Value of contracts takes everything in the contract into account, and then averages it across the length of the deal. it's a good way to compare apples to apples so to speak, and even out effects from years with signing bonuses and cap front-loading etc. The top 15 AAV are ALL QBs. 17 of the top 20 are QBs. Some starting QBs are playing on their rookie deals, and won't even show up on the list, so even players like Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are more highly paid than any non QB in the league. The top 4 paid players in the league in 2024 are each QBs making over $50 Million dollars AAV. The top 5 paid non QBs are: Nick Bosa $34M (16th) Aaron Donald $32M (18th) Tyreek Hill $30M (19th) TJ Watt $28M (21st) Davante Adams $28M (22nd) The top 5 paid offensive linemen are: Laremy Tunsil $25M (25th) Andrew Thomas $24M (36th) Trent Williams $23M (40th) David Bakhtiari $23M (41st) Chris Lindstrom $21M (51st) The top 5 paid Bears are: Montez Sweat $25M (29th) DJ Moore $21M (50th) Trem. Edmunds $18M (78th) Cole Kmet $13M (169th) Nate Davis $10M (202nd) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

for sure. anyone who has watched teams get picked in gym knows this instinctively. It's obvious, and we agree. But not all positions are equally important to winning championships. That said, the weakest link on any team is an issue, and football is the ultimate team sport. So every position matters. And as I've said before, I agree with you that the offensive line is extremely important to a football team's success. But I think you can more reliably find good offensive linemen, especially interior players, in the second round than you can reliably find championship QBs there, with the possible exception of left offensive tackle. There is a reason that the best QBs get paid more $ than any other position by far. General Managers know this truth about the importance of the position and what a dominant one is worth. Right defensive end is one of the most important positions on the defense, because they are the anti QB. They rush the QB to stop him from being able to throw. Their importance is a reflection of the QBs importance. And of course then, to your point, the left offensive tackle is important because he blocks the DE who is trying to stop the QB. Again, all worth directly relative to the importance of the QB position. Now it is also true that we have seen difference makers at every position in football history. You wouldnt normally think of safety as a position from which you can dominate the outcome of a game, but Ronnie Lott, Ed Reed and Troy Palumalu have shown otherwise. So real generational difference makers can come at any position. But even when they do, at the height of their powers, they are not the most highly paid players in the league. That distinction always goes to a QB. And that value, expressed here as salary cap %, relates directly to effect on winning. So if you think there's a hall of Fame QB available in the draft, you pay almost any price to get him. And I do think the Bears roster building is far enough along to support a Caleb Williams, and I also think we will put more on the OL this offseason to make that even more true. It isnt a true choice between a top rookie QB *OR* an offensive line. i think we can have both. And I think every metric and study shows that the top QB is the most important thing in football. Not the only important thing, but the most important.

sure, and if you identify that Spencer Rattler or something is the guy and you think you can reliably get him at 1(11) then I understand that plan. But if you've identified a sleeper, you dont know who else might have. And even worse, the top guy(s) you evaluate are almost certain to be everyone else's top guys. If youre looking to draft that real difference maker, you dont want to get too cute and miss on him. And I just think that the real difference making QB in this draft, if there is one, is gonna be gone by pick #4. And I dont think passing on a guy like that is worth the extra players you get in return. I think rare difference making QBs are what the league is all about, and without one nothing else will matter. Of course you want to put everything you can around a player like that. OL, WR, TE, RB, Defense all help a QB win games. But not to the point where its worth passing on the stud QB and thinking youll get one down the list who will be OK. There are so few of these difference making QBs and they win most of the superbowls.

It's a compound question. A better set of questions might be: 1) How important is the QB in getting to and winning a superbowl? 2) Where are you most likely to find a QB like that? I think the obvious answer you'll come up with is that the QB is easily the most important position in football, and the higher you draft them, the more likely you are to get a good one. Honestly I'm surprised this is at all controversial. It seems really obvious to me. Yes, good players are sometimes found later in the draft or free agency, and yes top picks sometimes bust, but statistically speaking, the best players generally go earlier in the draft, of course.

the truth is in the middle, I think. You absolutely need that top QB to really compete, and you need a good team around him too. the Bears have not given their QBs very good opportunities, across the board weve been a pretty bad team for a while. Protection has been a problem for, and ruined the confidence of, more than one QB for us. But which is rarer to find? Every year has good offensive linemen in the draft, but not every year has a true future top 5 QB. If you want a gunslinger to go against Mahomes, many years there just isn't one in the draft at all. The good news is, that even as Poles is not finished with his roster build, there are some pieces in place on this team for a rookie QB to come into, and I predict jason will be happy with changes the Bears will make this offseason to the OL. Im cant predicting youre gonna like whichever players we get, I couldnt possibly know any of that, but I predict youll see several new faces, and a real concerted effort to upgrade the line, even as we take a rookie QB too. It's nice to finally be back to a team where we can see the holes in the roster so clearly now. It used to be everything was shaky, but now there are holes we can identify, and areas that are covered.

Well I cant argue against the importance of the offensive line, you're right that it's extremely important. It's the only reason Walter isn't still the career rushing yards leader. We put a first round draft pick at OT in Wright, and we are going to address the center position this offseason one way or another for sure. So what's left is Jenkins, Davis and Jones. I think Jenkins and Davis can both be excellent, but Jenkins has injury issues, and Davis was really spotty last year. I figure we are getting an interior OL this offseason too. Between the three of them, hopefully we can field two good ones. It would be really great to spend the #9 pick on LT too. WR and DE are other strong options. I suppose free agency will make that clearer. But all this to say, I think we can take a QB and still boost up the OL this offseason both. I do happen to agree with you about how important the OL is. Im just not sure this is an either or question?

I agree except of course Washington wouldnt be bound by whatever they said, so youd have to have two QBs that you value similarly. I suspect after all the analysis they will do and we will do, we will think Williams is the only one, and therefore no trade. But I need to watch a lot more film to be sure. But after i do, I wont be at all surprised if Williams is the guy all alone on the top of the pile.

By far the most important thing in having a superbowl contending team is the QB. There are only a small handful of QBs who you can consider likely to take your team to the superbowl and win it. Everything else is secondary. Therefore, if you believe there is a QB of that caliber in the draft, you take him whatever the cost. Teams often trade future first rounders to move up to get a guy like that - that's how valuable they are. If someone offers us a haul of picks for the #1 pick that's because they think it's WORTH it. And they are right. Now it's true that you never know what a draft pick will become, but if you don't try then you'll never have a QB worthy of taking you to the big game and winning it. Justin Fields is so far from that it's silly we even discuss it. We need someone to stand toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes. Every team does. Most years there isn't someone like that available in the draft at all. This year there is at least one. If Poles doesn't take a QB with a top pick, he will get fired and deserve it. And we will suffer through another decade of awful teams.

That's exactly right. This is the year to take that difference making franchise QB. It's OK if they think it's Maye or whatever, but whoever you identify as the best QB in the draft this year, you gotta take him. If you identify it is Maye would you consider moving down one slot with Washington? Sure. But youve got to take the #1 guy youve identified this year, and in all likelihood, it's the obvious choice - Caleb Williams.

Update: it is apparently a UTI, and he is on antibiotics now, and going into the ICU. Hes so weak anything is a big problem. All good thoughts to him.

agree. and our team will be better with other guys in their positions too. and younger.

Apparently Mongo went to the emergency room a few hours ago with suspected pneumonia. I hope he is ok, Id love to see him make it to the Hall of Fame induction this summer. Life is short, enjoy your families and loved ones as much as possible.

This is expected and a good move, but it's nice of the Bears to do it now so both have a chance to get in on free agency as early as possible. Classy move by the Bears.

Cracker, I agree. It shows that the top drafting teams are the worst teams, and it shows that WR isnt the position that takes over a game. QB is. But of course, there have been major difference making WRs. Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Calvin Johnson - theres a long list. But if you were to choose between a generational WR or a generational QB, QB is the way to go. Mahomes is still winning the super bowl, while Tyreek Hill is not. Kelce is the 16th in receiving yards this year. DJ Moore was 13th.

no one. I am trying to say let's STOP fighting. I'm asking people NOT to fight. But lawsuits? Private Investigators? Libel when our identities are hidden? How can anyone's reputation be damaged when they are masked and less than 20 people read this? Everyone knows this is all internet nonsense. But now it's just SO over the top. And it needs to stop. It's ridiculous. If this guy is seriously threatening members with lawsuits, that's a lot worse than calling a bully names to get him to stop bullying. I think he should be removed for the safety of everyone here.

it is the season of smokescreens for sure.

truth. its a very difficult job, and being lucky is part of it. but i think people that want a job like that know how it is. its probably a lot of fun!

Mods, this guy is threatening me now. In fact, threatening someone with a lawsuit unless they do what you want is called extortion, it is a felony. I think this is all way out of bounds. I think the mods need to step in.

people here may choose not to speak to someone who would hire a private investigator and sue them over internet posts, especially when he is so nasty all the time. Maybe he should be removed from the site for member safety.

it DOES have an ignore button! I found it a few weeks ago. Since then I only see him in quoted responses, or occasionally when I choose to open a post for context. Just find your own screenname at the very top right of this (or any) window, and click on it to reveal the menu. At the bottom of the menu is "Ignored Users" then just enter "Stinger226", and life gets much better. I seriously cant believe how fighty the guy is. Constantly. With pretty much everyone. The nasty comments, like "dont get your panties in a bunch" and all sorts of really disrespectful stuff because you dont love Justin or whatever. He's a fake alpha, and that's the worst. But whereas the rest of us seem to be mostly arguing about what the Bears should do, he seems to be more interested in who was right, and covering his rhetorical butt so that whatever happens he wasnt wrong. And if you start following it, the pattern is really clear and pathetic. But most of the kind of stuff he says now wasnt what provoked that response from me. He had become emboldened over the year to speak really poorly to me, because I had been being polite and not fighting back. Then when I had enough, I told him it was enough, and then he doubled down, and that why I had to whoop his butt, which completely destroyed him rhetorically, because his arguments are really dumb and weak, but I also made myself look really bad in the process. I sent an apologetic note to Pix about it, and since then, Im not looking to fight with anyone. In fact I will still apologize to anyone except Stinger who didn't like it. I get it. It sucked. I felt it had to happen, but no one else needed to see it, and if it offended anyone, i apologize. I'll still respond where I feel I need to, but Im not looking to start ANYTHING other than Bears debate with respect to each person, and only critiquing ideas, not people. But it's pretty clear where the acrimony starts on this board. And it ain't me.

lol nah. theres no need for a rematch and he isnt speaking to me like he used to either, so its all good. I keep hoping to just move past all that now.

Ah so here's a good trick for you guys. The link adam posted requires a membership to read. A lot of sports sites are like that, and heading into draft season, we will probbaly all want to read lots of sites that we dont have access to. So anytime you are blocked on a website, you just add "archive.is/" in the URL just after the "http://" and you can read an archived version of the article without the paywall. so for: http://www.someblockedsite.com use http://archive.is/www.someblockedsite.com (those are made up examples of course, dont click them LOL) and here's adams link, fixed: https://archive.is/theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/

so true. by the time a media narrative is set, the info is months old, so you gotta win first, then they overpraise you. I agree with you about not screwing this up too. We still have to get it right, and coach up the players to the result. We do seem to be on the right path, finally, and that feels good. But we have to pick the right guy, and that's not always easy. But we are definitely at an inflection point for the franchise. Poles has done pretty well so far. If he gets this one right, not much else is gonna matter. Same if he whiffs.

Well since I straightened Stinger out, youve been pretty much sniping at me. I get that you didnt like it, probably didnt understand it, since no one really noticed it until I made it noticeable so that he had to stop. But since then, the only negative things Ive said are - let's not fight and be respectful. And that isn't really fighting. You really should either forgive me in your own mind, and move on with mutual respect, or keep being sarcastic and stuff and then dont be surprised if I say "dude, why the hate?" But what you cant honestly do is keep coming at me and then pretending I'm overreacting. That game is finished, cuz im not mad, Im not using bad words, and Im not even returning sarcasm to you. But pretending that Im so fragile and upsettable, and youre just being fun, when literally a couple days ago you were leaving the site because Im so fighty, and then posting this? Well, the term gaslighting comes to mind. You dont have to like me, but you cant keep sniping and pretend youre not. I mean, I even wrote you a really nice and respectful letter a month ago to try to resolve this, and you read it, but didnt answer. And youre right, Ive always liked you too. So can we let the Stinger crap go? Let's just be cool and not personal. Is that ok?

So a few things. First off it's great when coaches hug players. In my view it's the GM that should have more distance from the players. If youre gonna mock me, at least mock what I've actually said. It was about the GM. Secondly, Kelce was showing emotion. That is GREAT. It's competitive. It's what I think Eberflus is lacking, So again, if you're gonna mock me, at least try to understand what I've said. I LOVE when players and coaches yell and hug. And they dont have to yell to motivate either. But I am sure Andy Reid is not laid back during halftime when they're down. Andy Reid is MUCH more alpha than Matt Eberflus is. So were Landry and Shula. If you ask their players for the first thing that pops into their head about those giants, it wouldn't have been "laid back" And third, if you're gonna mock me, then please spare us the "I hate all the fighting" crap. If you want more nastiness, then by all means continue and provide it, but if not, then why do it? There are many ways to say something without the sarcasm. Seriously though, why so mad at me? If Eberflus needs his feelings protected from me by you, how fragile is he?