BearFan PHX

OK, so Justin was on Ahman Ra and Equinimeous St Browns podcast yesterday and he was asked about unfollowing the Bears. He said that he not only unfollowed the Bears but the NFL too - he said he doesnt want to have to read about him and Caleb Williams every day when he looks at social media to relax. Makes perfect sense. who could blame him for that?

I totally agree. Anyone should be allowed to do anything they are qualified for. If a woman is good enough to play in the NFL for example, then I havent really heard anyone object to that. There have been some female goalies in the NHL for example. Cool. But if you're not qualified, then I don't think this trend of giving out spots just for increased representation is a good idea at all. It's the different between equality of opportunity vs equity of outcome. Everyone deserves a good shot at opportunity, but you dont gain anything by ignoring merit, ability and experience just to make the outcome look diverse.

mm hmm but even me, Mr Hug-gate thinks this is a nothing burger LOL

agree. I wouldnt be surprised if we sign a free agent to be the starter until Williams is ready, I dunno if that's Bagents role yet? But i think Bagent is an excellent QB, but he needs to develop more arm strength, which I think is possible. But even so, I dunno if Bagent is ready to be the starter until Williams is ready. But all in all, I think Bagent is eventually going to be the best backup in the league.

Is it possible Fields was never following their account? I can imagine that when you talk to the coaches day to day you dont really need to follow the media department of the team. Of all the things to love about Justin or worry about Justin, this is a nothing burger I think?

Jordan Reid is really smart, and does a great job answering some pretty smart questions by Courtney Cronin.

Im not saying a LOT is a more important need than those other positions right now, but it's on the upgrade list, and if the draft aligns a certain way, I could see it. I could also see a WR, Bowers, 3T, DE, etc for sure as well

sure, but hes going to fix the middle of the line now. A free agent center, a lesser free agent OG...

I was including LOT not as a position of need per se, but just as a premiere position, especially for those that question Braxton's skills. If we get a top notch DE in free agency, and dont trade the #9 pick, Id expect it to go to WR or LOT, or Bowers. Center, OG and safety are unlikely positions to take so high, and Ill bet our center issue is addressed in free agency too. If there's a stud 3T, thats a possibility too. But a great LOT is a great thing to have, and if it falls that way, i could see us doing that.

I can see them trading #9 down, but there will definitely be a legit quality WR, OT or DE there. If we get a top notch DE in free agency, I can see them taking the best WR or OT at that spot too. I think the roster is getting near the point that we arent looking to add a lot of functional players, but more looking for fewer excellent ones now? Free agency should fill a lot of holes to allow for that kind of thinking too.

so far Poles has been very disciplined and hasnt been over active in free agency for sure, but I think that narrative a little bit deceptive too, since he has acquired the two most important players on our team in trades as well as spent quite a bit on free agents. Our top 10 paid players (by contract AAV) are: Montez Sweat $25M (trade) DJ Moore $21M (trade) Tremaine Edmunds $18M (free agent) Cole Kmet $13M (re-signed draft pick) Nate Davis $10M (free agent) DeMarcus Walker $7M (free agent) TJ Edwards $7M (free agent) Darnell Wright $5M (1st round draft pick) Justin Fields $5M (1st round draft pick) Andrew Billings $4M (free agent) I think it's more that Poles doesnt throw money at people, and waits for excellent players to become available by whatever method possible. I dont think he avoids free agents, but I DO think he avoids big money free agents that he doesnt want to be married to. He's been willing to wait an extra year to complete the rebuild rather than reach too far too fast. We had a string of GMs that got the best free agents available that they could afford every year. And they often underperform. Davis is a good example of that right now. Poles has not done too much of that, and thats good. It's much more cap healthy to make great picks in the draft. And Poles has done a LOT of that for sure. But we have a lot of free agent money this year to spend, and we have holes at FS, OC, WR, OG and DE. We will sign at least one impact free agent at one of those positions, and likely at least two before the draft. Poles will also sign inexpensive free agents to fill out all of those positions headed into the draft, so we arent stuck picking for need, and can take something like best player available at pick #9 of WR, DE or OT. We might even see a free agent RB if we dont keep Foreman.

Poles has shown an understanding and willingness to upgrade position groups that needed it, and the OL rebuild began last year with Wright and Davis. Davis hasn't played up to his potential in Chicago, but he has played very well before. Im sure Poles attention on that group is going to increase this offseason. Poles is a former offensive lineman too, so I think he'll be active in upgrading that group - especially so if he is taking a rookie QB, and I guess especially so if he is keeping Fields too. It's a clear need now. Wright is solid at RT. We will absolutely be picking up a new starting center too - that's a no brainer. Jenkins is good, but has been injured, and Davis is talented, but has been inconsistent, so I expect we will bring in an OG too, and between the three of them, we should manage to get two good ones on the field. That OG should probably be looked at as a future starter if not sooner. So only question is really Braxton Jones - do people think he is good enough, or does he need a replacement? that #9 pick is almost certainly going WR, DE or OT. Maybe a trade down to get two of those positions? And we have a lot of free agency cash to spend too. I bet we will have at least 3 new players on OL this year who can compete for starting roles: 1) a new starting center, most likely from free agency 2) a rookie OG to compete with Jenkins and Davis 3) a free agent OG 4) a possible LOT from pick #9 or free agency.

Well you want to make sure you have some picks for other positions, but Williams, Moore and Harrison Jr would be a dream scenario for sure. Can you imagine? We'd be amazing. It's interesting that this is an NFL mock, and not a Chicago-centric one too.

Franchising Justin does not save you money. It gives him a salary equal to the average of the top 5 salaries. That means it would be more (because new players get signed to higher contracts) than $51.8M a year for Justin. It basically makes him the third highest paid player in the league. That's a very foolish idea to pay Justin that no matter how much someone loves him.

I see the basis of our disagreement, and we dont have to agree. that's cool. I think getting that stud QB is the hardest thing to do, and i think there are lots of ways to build a roster too. So I dont agree that drafting Caleb would automatically mean other flaws, especially since every draft pick is a gamble. Also, a rookie QB isnt a financial burden for at least 4 years, and at that point you can decide if you have the real deal worth paying or not. But mostly, I cant see how you can prove that your strategy "provides more consistent success" - Im totally open to a statistical argument if you have one you'd like to provide, but i dont think it's a proven fact at all. But like i said, im willing to listen to what youve got?

Allocating salary cap $ to players is the most costly thing a team can do, so it makes a pretty good metric to judge how important a player or position is to teams. Looking at Average Annual Value of contracts takes everything in the contract into account, and then averages it across the length of the deal. it's a good way to compare apples to apples so to speak, and even out effects from years with signing bonuses and cap front-loading etc. The top 15 AAV are ALL QBs. 17 of the top 20 are QBs. Some starting QBs are playing on their rookie deals, and won't even show up on the list, so even players like Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are more highly paid than any non QB in the league. The top 4 paid players in the league in 2024 are each QBs making over $50 Million dollars AAV. The top 5 paid non QBs are: Nick Bosa $34M (16th) Aaron Donald $32M (18th) Tyreek Hill $30M (19th) TJ Watt $28M (21st) Davante Adams $28M (22nd) The top 5 paid offensive linemen are: Laremy Tunsil $25M (25th) Andrew Thomas $24M (36th) Trent Williams $23M (40th) David Bakhtiari $23M (41st) Chris Lindstrom $21M (51st) The top 5 paid Bears are: Montez Sweat $25M (29th) DJ Moore $21M (50th) Trem. Edmunds $18M (78th) Cole Kmet $13M (169th) Nate Davis $10M (202nd) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

for sure. anyone who has watched teams get picked in gym knows this instinctively. It's obvious, and we agree. But not all positions are equally important to winning championships. That said, the weakest link on any team is an issue, and football is the ultimate team sport. So every position matters. And as I've said before, I agree with you that the offensive line is extremely important to a football team's success. But I think you can more reliably find good offensive linemen, especially interior players, in the second round than you can reliably find championship QBs there, with the possible exception of left offensive tackle. There is a reason that the best QBs get paid more $ than any other position by far. General Managers know this truth about the importance of the position and what a dominant one is worth. Right defensive end is one of the most important positions on the defense, because they are the anti QB. They rush the QB to stop him from being able to throw. Their importance is a reflection of the QBs importance. And of course then, to your point, the left offensive tackle is important because he blocks the DE who is trying to stop the QB. Again, all worth directly relative to the importance of the QB position. Now it is also true that we have seen difference makers at every position in football history. You wouldnt normally think of safety as a position from which you can dominate the outcome of a game, but Ronnie Lott, Ed Reed and Troy Palumalu have shown otherwise. So real generational difference makers can come at any position. But even when they do, at the height of their powers, they are not the most highly paid players in the league. That distinction always goes to a QB. And that value, expressed here as salary cap %, relates directly to effect on winning. So if you think there's a hall of Fame QB available in the draft, you pay almost any price to get him. And I do think the Bears roster building is far enough along to support a Caleb Williams, and I also think we will put more on the OL this offseason to make that even more true. It isnt a true choice between a top rookie QB *OR* an offensive line. i think we can have both. And I think every metric and study shows that the top QB is the most important thing in football. Not the only important thing, but the most important.

sure, and if you identify that Spencer Rattler or something is the guy and you think you can reliably get him at 1(11) then I understand that plan. But if you've identified a sleeper, you dont know who else might have. And even worse, the top guy(s) you evaluate are almost certain to be everyone else's top guys. If youre looking to draft that real difference maker, you dont want to get too cute and miss on him. And I just think that the real difference making QB in this draft, if there is one, is gonna be gone by pick #4. And I dont think passing on a guy like that is worth the extra players you get in return. I think rare difference making QBs are what the league is all about, and without one nothing else will matter. Of course you want to put everything you can around a player like that. OL, WR, TE, RB, Defense all help a QB win games. But not to the point where its worth passing on the stud QB and thinking youll get one down the list who will be OK. There are so few of these difference making QBs and they win most of the superbowls.

It's a compound question. A better set of questions might be: 1) How important is the QB in getting to and winning a superbowl? 2) Where are you most likely to find a QB like that? I think the obvious answer you'll come up with is that the QB is easily the most important position in football, and the higher you draft them, the more likely you are to get a good one. Honestly I'm surprised this is at all controversial. It seems really obvious to me. Yes, good players are sometimes found later in the draft or free agency, and yes top picks sometimes bust, but statistically speaking, the best players generally go earlier in the draft, of course.

the truth is in the middle, I think. You absolutely need that top QB to really compete, and you need a good team around him too. the Bears have not given their QBs very good opportunities, across the board weve been a pretty bad team for a while. Protection has been a problem for, and ruined the confidence of, more than one QB for us. But which is rarer to find? Every year has good offensive linemen in the draft, but not every year has a true future top 5 QB. If you want a gunslinger to go against Mahomes, many years there just isn't one in the draft at all. The good news is, that even as Poles is not finished with his roster build, there are some pieces in place on this team for a rookie QB to come into, and I predict jason will be happy with changes the Bears will make this offseason to the OL. Im cant predicting youre gonna like whichever players we get, I couldnt possibly know any of that, but I predict youll see several new faces, and a real concerted effort to upgrade the line, even as we take a rookie QB too. It's nice to finally be back to a team where we can see the holes in the roster so clearly now. It used to be everything was shaky, but now there are holes we can identify, and areas that are covered.

Well I cant argue against the importance of the offensive line, you're right that it's extremely important. It's the only reason Walter isn't still the career rushing yards leader. We put a first round draft pick at OT in Wright, and we are going to address the center position this offseason one way or another for sure. So what's left is Jenkins, Davis and Jones. I think Jenkins and Davis can both be excellent, but Jenkins has injury issues, and Davis was really spotty last year. I figure we are getting an interior OL this offseason too. Between the three of them, hopefully we can field two good ones. It would be really great to spend the #9 pick on LT too. WR and DE are other strong options. I suppose free agency will make that clearer. But all this to say, I think we can take a QB and still boost up the OL this offseason both. I do happen to agree with you about how important the OL is. Im just not sure this is an either or question?

I agree except of course Washington wouldnt be bound by whatever they said, so youd have to have two QBs that you value similarly. I suspect after all the analysis they will do and we will do, we will think Williams is the only one, and therefore no trade. But I need to watch a lot more film to be sure. But after i do, I wont be at all surprised if Williams is the guy all alone on the top of the pile.

By far the most important thing in having a superbowl contending team is the QB. There are only a small handful of QBs who you can consider likely to take your team to the superbowl and win it. Everything else is secondary. Therefore, if you believe there is a QB of that caliber in the draft, you take him whatever the cost. Teams often trade future first rounders to move up to get a guy like that - that's how valuable they are. If someone offers us a haul of picks for the #1 pick that's because they think it's WORTH it. And they are right. Now it's true that you never know what a draft pick will become, but if you don't try then you'll never have a QB worthy of taking you to the big game and winning it. Justin Fields is so far from that it's silly we even discuss it. We need someone to stand toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes. Every team does. Most years there isn't someone like that available in the draft at all. This year there is at least one. If Poles doesn't take a QB with a top pick, he will get fired and deserve it. And we will suffer through another decade of awful teams.

That's exactly right. This is the year to take that difference making franchise QB. It's OK if they think it's Maye or whatever, but whoever you identify as the best QB in the draft this year, you gotta take him. If you identify it is Maye would you consider moving down one slot with Washington? Sure. But youve got to take the #1 guy youve identified this year, and in all likelihood, it's the obvious choice - Caleb Williams.

Update: it is apparently a UTI, and he is on antibiotics now, and going into the ICU. Hes so weak anything is a big problem. All good thoughts to him.