BearFan PHX

hahaha I saw that after I posted!

great info, thanks!

Flus runs a zone based scheme, and he started with a lot of cover 2, but now he runs a lot of cover 3 as well. But in either case he doesnt run a Tampa 2, just a regular cover 2, which is stupid because Edmunds is an excellent Urlacher size/length/speed combo type. I think the worst part of Eberflus' defense isnt so much the playcalling per se, every defense has the same 6 or 8 calls, and a couple exotics, but rather how he plays them - he seems to like to give WRs a bigger cushion and play bend dont break which wont beat the good playoff teams. hes got to be willing to trust his players a bit more and let them make plays on the ball and not just tackles after the completion. All in all the hallmark of the Eberflus era so far has been not trusting the players and trying to "out safe" the other guy, on both sides of the ball, which has resulted in a bunch of giving games away we should have won. I want to see the new DC coming in be more aggressive. Not just blitzing more, but more subtly, in how tight they ask the coverages to be. With a better pass rush from Sweat and whoever we add to the DL this offseason, and a more trustworthy FS over the top, it's time to let the coverage guys play tighter.

makes sense. they may also announce the OC hiring with the assistants, so it doesnt tip our hand and cause competitors to act faster on signing assistants?

they did say that, and youre right they can be. I was just thinking two different DB coaches, Hoke is the better one, but youre right about those mitigating factors.

We went 2-2 with Bagent and the same OC and OL and we didnt have Sweat yet. I dont think some hypothetical Jarod Goff would take us to the promised land, but I feel like with nothing from the QB position we are almost to the playoffs anyway. So I agree with ASHKUM that with just some decent play from the QB, we will get into positive territory. And that's not advocating a plan to get just a decent QB, you know my feelings about having a star at that position, but it is more of a comment on where the roster is for next year and whoever comes at QB. And they damned well have put someone else in at center too lol But all this to say - the roster will be ready to support a difference making QB if we can find one.

I think some people thinkt hat if we trade back this year, we will get next year's #1 overall again, and i think thats very unlikely.

My guess is, if they hire Harris, it will be as DB coach, and then they'd promote Hoke to DC?

I picked him as an example of a middle QB. I dont want him to be our QB. Im saying even with a guy like Goff, and all his shortcomings, wed be a playoff team. So I agree with you about Goff, and I also think we need a better QB than Justin is gonna be. And if we get in even just a good one, we would have gone to the playoffs this year on the basis of the rest of the roster.

well if you put Jarod Goff let's say on this year's team, we would definitely have been a playoff team. We ARE close to being relevant. My personal opinion is that the roster is greatly improved. I dont think the coaching was any kind of a plus for us this year. The position coaches on defense did a great job, but the play calling was terrible to vanilla on both sides of the ball. I dont think that meant we needed to bring Eberflus back, but that's already done. I do think a QB puts us over the top even more than we realize because I think Fields is the best looking bad quarterback ever, and I don't think people realize how much a real QB would bring and how much has been missing at that position.

yeah, I was agreeing with Pix (and now you too!) who said they should meet with him even if only for info gathering alone. And I wonder if part of the plusses they listed when considering firing Getsy was that they could have this process of interviews on this year where they have to make such a huge QB decision. It's all woven together: the passing offense isnt getting it done, who should we look at at OC and QB, including keeping Getsy and or Fields, and then you start playing out scenarios, and getting all this QB related info right when you need it is a consequence of firing the OC because you need better QB play!

For sure, and with Williams it's extremely necessary. Unlike most rookie prospects, Williams' film is incredible. It doesn't take long to evaluate his talent. It's "generational" BUT he does play out of structure looking for big plays and hold the ball a bit. Rather than taking the short first down receiver, he gambles that a longer route is gonna come open, and if it does he puts the ball right into the window from 50 yards away. But in the NFL, he's going to have to learn to take what the defense gives you, and that means taking coaching points. Can he listen to authority? Will he moderate his competitive nature? He might be Jeff George in this way. Killer arm, but doesnt know how to play smaller. When you add the possible mental issues, it becomes clear that knowing Williams the person is the hardest part of this evaluation. The tape is obvious, so more than any other prospect, youre gonna want to talk to EVERYONE and find out everything you can. Greg Gabriel has already said that there will be some not too flattering stuff coming out about Caleb, so they know some things already that we don't. It scares me. I don't know all the facts of course, so I wouldnt know how to balance those concerns against his potential. There are also questions about his sexuality, which on the surface doesnt mean much to me. I dont care about that stuff in specific. One of my favorite athletes of all time is Dennis Rodman, so being different doesnt concern me at all. What I wonder about instead is whether some social justice concern will get in the way of football, or if he has a victim narrative for himself at all. For example how Colin Kaepernick took his focus off of football. Some may say he did it for the greater good, and that's fine, but it didn't help the 49ers win games. And Kaepernick was never the athlete that WIlliams is either. But Rodman was all hustle. Nothing he did outside the game, no matter how flamboyant or headline grabbing ever eclipsed his game on the court. He was a beast getting boards. I also hear Williams is a ridiculously overcompetitive person. Thats a kind of mental unhealthiness as well, but one that I consider a strength in a player. By all accounts Michael Jordan is a miserable person. He NEEDS to be beating everyone all the time at everything just to feel normal. Ditka once threw a chair through a wall because he lost a hand of poker. If it manifests like that kind of drive, then it's a plus. If for example Williams is gay, and plans to come out as a pro, and in his mind he has a psychological NEED to win multiple superbowls to prove that a gay QB could be the GOAT, then Im all in. If on the opther hand, he might pull back like Cutler did when things didnt go well, and think "Im above all this BS and they just hate me because _______" then it's a tremendous negative. And I wouldnt possibly know if he even IS gay, or which way that might motivate him or at all. And if its a personality thing, but not sexual in nature, the same kind of questions need answers. So more than any prospect I can think of, the deep dive into Caleb Williams' psychology must be well under way. And if you can meet with Kliff Kingsbury and ask him "if you were OC would you want us to draft Caleb? Is he coachable? Do his teammates like him?" and maybe even "What could you do with Justin Fields?" then you gotta do it.

at the very least, theyre gathering info on Caleb

He had a great year, and especially so for a rookie

fair statement! None of us know. But that's a good nuanced answer.

yeah it's always a plus when you can get to know the players like that for a week. We got Bagent that way.

It's weird, as an athlete Fields is a total stud. But he doesnt play in structure. The stats are hard to compare for that reason. But I don't see Fields leading the team to scores. When certain QBs have the ball in their hands you think "OK here we go" and I never saw Fields take the team on his back and will them to victory. In some ways Stroud is inferior to Fields. But he is more efficient as a passer, and he's executing the offense, surrounded as you guys say, by a good team. Im not sure Fields would be efficient, even if you surrounded him with better talent.

the last team that won the Super Bowl that way was Trent Dilfer? Your analogy is for a monetary return. Your goal would be to safely increase the value of your portfolio with the lowest chance of bottoming out. So you're right about that for sure. But if your goal is to be the best out of 32 teams, then I think the math works differently?

ouch, and true.

youre right on all accounts. The (restrictive) rules were just to get a discussion going. For all we know Daniels will slide to 9, but if you NEED him at QB, you probably wouldnt want to chance it? Anyway, there are lots of scenarios outside of the ones I listed, I just wanted to focus the discussion for a couple reasons - one is to separate this discussion from the keep Fields or not discussion, and two was to see how people value the rookie QBs? I also agree that it is not certain that Williams will go #1. And anyone who says theyd take Maye at #2, my next question is whether they would take him at #1 if there were no trade partners, so youre right about all of that. This wasnt meant to say these are the only options, but just to focus the discussion on a certain slice of those options. For all I know, we will keep Fields, but now Im breaking my own rule LOL

sounds like it.

That stat is somewhat misleading tho. Williams didnt have great receivers or a good defense, so he was always having to look past easier quick throws and look downfield for bigger plays. One of the knocks on him is that he wont just take a first down, and looks for the homerun too much. Both of those factors will affect the TTT, but for different reasons. But you also see lots of examples of Williams doing what Fields wont, and that's hitting a slant or post in rhythm with no hesitation. So I think stats make them seem comparable, but tape shows it to be two different things. The plus side would be to call Williams a Rogers or Favre like gunslinger, and explain the TTT that way, but then the bigger question is, is Williams coachable? Can he be coached to take the first down? Or is it a selfish personality type?

OK here's some of that not fitting in stuff I worry about with Williams. This is from when he left Oklahoma, and followed Lincoln Riley to USC. So, December of 2021. Williams says: "Me and Spence, we weren’t best friends," Williams said. "I can say that. We weren’t best friends, but we didn’t hate each other either. There’s a bunch of other guys that I’m not best friends with and don’t hate them, either, on the team." OK Spence is the other QB he supplanted, so OK, fine. But a bunch of other guys? I really wish he didnt give me Claypool vibes. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2021/12/15/caleb-williams-spencer-rattler-relationship-oklahoma-football/8917719002/

He's got all the prototypical tools, and a proven arm. He played a lot more games than Trubisky did, and his numbers are good, but they lag behind Williams and Daniels in both total numbers (like yards) and percentages and ratings. The knock Ive heard on him is that he doesnt have that magic "it" factor to take over a game and bend it to his will the way the great ones seem to. But other than the stats, the rest is just me hearing other people's BS, I need to watch a lot more film on Maye before I have any real opinion on him. If he ends up looking like John Elway or Dan Marino to me or something, Ill be thrilled because of my concerns with Williams.

this is good to read. I know the least about Maye right now. Lemme ask you, if you couldnt trade the pick, would you take Maye with #1 over Williams?