BearFan PHX

at the very least, theyre gathering info on Caleb

He had a great year, and especially so for a rookie

fair statement! None of us know. But that's a good nuanced answer.

yeah it's always a plus when you can get to know the players like that for a week. We got Bagent that way.

It's weird, as an athlete Fields is a total stud. But he doesnt play in structure. The stats are hard to compare for that reason. But I don't see Fields leading the team to scores. When certain QBs have the ball in their hands you think "OK here we go" and I never saw Fields take the team on his back and will them to victory. In some ways Stroud is inferior to Fields. But he is more efficient as a passer, and he's executing the offense, surrounded as you guys say, by a good team. Im not sure Fields would be efficient, even if you surrounded him with better talent.

the last team that won the Super Bowl that way was Trent Dilfer? Your analogy is for a monetary return. Your goal would be to safely increase the value of your portfolio with the lowest chance of bottoming out. So you're right about that for sure. But if your goal is to be the best out of 32 teams, then I think the math works differently?

ouch, and true.

youre right on all accounts. The (restrictive) rules were just to get a discussion going. For all we know Daniels will slide to 9, but if you NEED him at QB, you probably wouldnt want to chance it? Anyway, there are lots of scenarios outside of the ones I listed, I just wanted to focus the discussion for a couple reasons - one is to separate this discussion from the keep Fields or not discussion, and two was to see how people value the rookie QBs? I also agree that it is not certain that Williams will go #1. And anyone who says theyd take Maye at #2, my next question is whether they would take him at #1 if there were no trade partners, so youre right about all of that. This wasnt meant to say these are the only options, but just to focus the discussion on a certain slice of those options. For all I know, we will keep Fields, but now Im breaking my own rule LOL

sounds like it.

That stat is somewhat misleading tho. Williams didnt have great receivers or a good defense, so he was always having to look past easier quick throws and look downfield for bigger plays. One of the knocks on him is that he wont just take a first down, and looks for the homerun too much. Both of those factors will affect the TTT, but for different reasons. But you also see lots of examples of Williams doing what Fields wont, and that's hitting a slant or post in rhythm with no hesitation. So I think stats make them seem comparable, but tape shows it to be two different things. The plus side would be to call Williams a Rogers or Favre like gunslinger, and explain the TTT that way, but then the bigger question is, is Williams coachable? Can he be coached to take the first down? Or is it a selfish personality type?

OK here's some of that not fitting in stuff I worry about with Williams. This is from when he left Oklahoma, and followed Lincoln Riley to USC. So, December of 2021. Williams says: "Me and Spence, we weren’t best friends," Williams said. "I can say that. We weren’t best friends, but we didn’t hate each other either. There’s a bunch of other guys that I’m not best friends with and don’t hate them, either, on the team." OK Spence is the other QB he supplanted, so OK, fine. But a bunch of other guys? I really wish he didnt give me Claypool vibes. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2021/12/15/caleb-williams-spencer-rattler-relationship-oklahoma-football/8917719002/

He's got all the prototypical tools, and a proven arm. He played a lot more games than Trubisky did, and his numbers are good, but they lag behind Williams and Daniels in both total numbers (like yards) and percentages and ratings. The knock Ive heard on him is that he doesnt have that magic "it" factor to take over a game and bend it to his will the way the great ones seem to. But other than the stats, the rest is just me hearing other people's BS, I need to watch a lot more film on Maye before I have any real opinion on him. If he ends up looking like John Elway or Dan Marino to me or something, Ill be thrilled because of my concerns with Williams.

this is good to read. I know the least about Maye right now. Lemme ask you, if you couldnt trade the pick, would you take Maye with #1 over Williams?

I was on the Penix train, but the championship game was awful. He didnt look the same at all against a quality defense. And there are the injury concerns. I think there is a scenario that some people might like that says trade the #1 for a treasure trove and use #9 to take McCarthy, some might prefer Nix. Williams is the obvious choice on the surface, and your point about not getting cute and just taking the player is a good one. I do worry about his height, and about his mental stuff, especially whether he is coachable. But on his tape alone, he is really good, and even though hes known for being too hungry for the big plays, he has shown an ability to play in rhythm too, hitting slants and posts and stuff like that in time across the middle. They had the same concerns about structure and coachability with Mahomes though too. And with Justin too. it's hard to know this aspect. This will be decided on phone calls and discussions with coaches, like the interview with Kingsbury. "if we hire you as OC, do you think you could be successful with Caleb Williams as your QB?" (Im sure they asked about other QBs too) but for example if Kilngsbury wants the job, and wants to be successful and thinks Williams is a head case or not so coachable, he'd probably have indicated that in some way. I wish we knew those things. usually its a matter of tape, but with Williams, I think he's killing the tape and my concerns are with his head. How do you weight that?

OK. The Fields thread is killing me. This thread is for the rookie QBs. If your argument is that we should keep Fields, that's cool, but this thread isn't for that scenario. The rules of this game are that you have to take a QB with pick #1, OR you can trade down to #2 and take any QB except for Williams OR you can trade down to #3 and take any QB except for Williams or Maye OR you can trade the #1 pick away for a fortune, but then you have to take a QB with pick #9 and it can't be Williams, Maye, Daniels or Penix This is also a good thread to just talk about whatever you do or don't like about any of the rookie QBs, even if you don't choose to make a pick. And participation in this thread doesn't mean that there aren't better draft strategies that people prefer. You could still prefer to keep Fields and also play this game for fun. But this thread is just to talk about the rookie QBs!

but apparently we don't all see it. Most of us do, and then there are a few who see it completely differently, and (from my point of view) will spin arguments that make no sense to defend him. Not all who like Fields do that to be sure, but there are at least a few faithful here that won't budge an inch. Personally, i have always had a mixed view on him. In 2022 his running was amazing. In 2023, they obviously coached him not to put moves on any defenders, but just to slide, so that took away the best part of his game. And if he kept doing what he was doing in 2022, he'd get injured. So it's a skill that doesn't fit the position because no one will let you use it. Like Hester, he has pure open field running talent, but just as Hester couldnt learn the technical aspects of playing wide receiver to bring his talents into a part of an offensive structure, so does Fields struggle to play in structure, even as his athletic ability is amazing. Fields hasnt won big games, he hasnt led 4th quarter comebacks, he hasnt won many games, and he hasnt broken 300 yards except for once. The best you can say for Fields is that he may develop into a functional QB and then those skills will be extra gravy. And that nothing is his fault, so he will be better if you put Pro Bowlers at every position around him. But I give him respect and credit for his leadership, his personality, his work ethic and his athleticism. I just dont think he will ever win a Super Bowl with this team. And if you know that, then you gotta move on. But I dont hear the other side of this argument on this board giving any middle ground. I don't hear a lot of "Justin has real problems with reading defenses and playing in structure but..." and it's getting SO repetitive. We should all be debating which rookie to take instead of still hashing out Justin Fields. It seems way past time. We kept hearing "just a few more games" and then "well the last game maybe he can do something" listen, if JF was the man, youd know it before the last game this year. That was ridiculous. But we kept on hoping just one more time come on baby please just do it. It's mind boggling. It was desperation. If Justin was a good QB, he'd have been a good QB. Can we have a discussion on which rookie to draft? that's much more interesting, and every opinion across the board is respectable because no one knows anything yet. We can have totally different opinions on them all and I don't see the conversation getting this silly or exasperating.

Are there a lot of examples where former QBs who are now pundits say that a current NFL QB is trash and they should move on from him? It stands to reason that some NFL QBs should be kept and others should be traded or cut. Maybe people have different opinions about that, which is fair. But do these former NFL QB pundits ever say a current NFL QB should be replaced? And if not, then maybe that's part of doing that job, but it also makes their support of Fields questionable? Can anyone find me an example of Brock Huard ripping a current NFL QB on one of these shows?

I get the feeling he'd like to return to the NFL if the situation was right, but there is no doubt he uses this as leverage with Michigan too. The guy gets paid there, and the kids (so far) arent worth millions or uncoachable in his tough style. I can totally see why he likes it there in Michigan.

OK, if were gonna talk sports, thats fine, but somehow this had kind of a nasty tone. You have heard the word generational passed around in relation to Williams from any number of sportswriters and talent evaluators. I simply said that there is a lot of that kind of evidence out there, and I also said at the same time that there is risk too. You clipped that half of the sentence off as if I was asserting that Williams was a known quantity, when I never said that at all. If you want to debate, you have to be intellectually honest. You asserted that there is "little evidence", as if Williams is a complete unknown, and thats just not true. And similarly, no one knows anything for sure, and that is also true. And it's like square one, so I'm surprised you're starting there as if that is new? Also, I said Peyton Manning. I was starting my argument there. What is a great QB worth in first round picks in your opinion? We can get to the next steps of the logical argument after that first question. What is a top 5 NFL QB worth in first round picks in your opinion? If you were the KC GM, how many first rounders would it take before youd trade Mahomes?

First off there is a lot of evidence that a #1 pick QB will be great, and a lot of evidence that Williams will be great - and yes there is risk. There is risk in every draft pick, and every scenario. Secondly, I am sure trading down our #1 overall will net a 2025 first rounder. How sure are you that it will be a #1 overall? That's what he's saying. Let's start the analysis here - what do you think the best QB in the league is worth in first round draft picks? Bill Polian said Peyton Manning was worth 10 first rounders. Where do you value a player like that?

A freakin MEN - I swear it's like the emperor is stark naked and people are talking about how amazing his robe is. Ive never seen it like this before. To me, it's completely crazy.

Some of these clips are from the 2022 season, and some are from the scripted plays too. Some are rollouts or screens where the ball comes out without a read. Some are play action where the ball comes out to the primary receiver again without much of a read. In every game this season, you could see his performance just fall off of a cliff as soon as they were through the scripted plays. If Fields was routinely doing this in mid games, I'd be a strong voice for keeping him, but he isn't.

Good one! I just googled it and Mahomes worked with Kingsbury at Texas Tech.

I think we've all watched enough football to be able to at least do a little of our own opinion building. I'm not one that thinks there is a ton of special sauce that we cant see. I mean, I know there are finer points of footwork etc that I wont pick up on, but any of us can see the main stuff, and it's a lot to make a good opinion from. I almost feel like if all we do is read newspapers and stats, then we get caught up in bubble of narratives, as the reporters parrot what they read from each other. It can get nuts! It WILL get nuts around Caleb. He's already an enigmatic figure to be sure. So for me, I try to find all 22 footage. And this is what I look at: Did he throw off of a good base if he was able to (mechanics) Did he hit a receiver in stride when their route broke open i.e. on time (timing) Did he lead the receiver to help YAC or away from a defender (accuracy) Does he look confident and have a smooth throwing motion (confidence and athleticism) Can he throw all the routes without rainbows (arm strength) Does he make good situational decisions like throwing the ball away, managing the clock etc (leadership) On plays where he didnt play in rhythm, was someone open or did he have to break for some reason (structure) On plays that broke how is his improvisational ability (improvisation) I know everyone already knows this. Just saying this process ain't rocket science. I'll watch each play 2 or 3 times to answer all that, and you can get a feel for how many plays are successful and how many are not. You can see if he gets rattled by pressure, or fooled by coverages. I dont keep score or anything, but if you look at 30 passes, you'll have an idea. And best if they all come from a single game against a quality opponent, rather than a highlight reel. So I see the good ones and the bad ones. And if I watch a few games against good opponents, then it's a good view. And then of course I have a ton of good examples and bad examples and you gotta make some kind of guess as to where his average ability level is, and how consistent he is. That's the tape and we can all form informed opinions on it if we take a couple hours across the next few months to look at it.. But I dont even think that's what the core of what the Bears are still looking at now. I think they want to know everything about Caleb Williams. I bet the have investigators doing all kinds of work. And theyre making phone calls to ask past coaches and anyone about him. You gotta find out if he's coachable. And make a guess at what his ceiling is, and whether he will reach it. He's a hell of a prospect, I can already see that, but you gotta make sure hes the right guy too. Its a hell of a hard problem.

oooo French! This place is getting classy! LOL