BearFan PHX

hes still an anomaly. but I dont think Justin Fields is that high of a threshold, thats probably the difference in our opinions? And hes an anomaly in that hes doing it year one. But could I see Williams do the same next year with the Bears team? For sure. Am I confident he WILL be that guy? Not right now, but maybe after i watch more film. But I am confident Williams will be at least as good as Fields is now, right out of the gate.

I guess Im gonna have to get over the drama BS and see if I cant fall in love with Williams the player.

yes, and of course it isnt picking them #1 that makes them great, but just all the GMs who see the player the same way. In a year like this, where the consensus #1 may play outside of structure, and there are so many good options, it may be that the 2nd QB picks outplays the first one, or is also good too. I wonder what the numbers look like #2 pick vs #9 etc. EDIT - click on the tweet and read the whole thread, theres a LOT there, and it is a strong signal vs noise. Like look at this! 6th - 10th picks doing better than 2nd - 5th I need to watch a lot of film on Williams.

well you know I agree with everything you said, Im just saying if you have a GREAT QB they are worth the money. I dont think Justin is better than a rookie. And he wont be better than them in 2025 for sure.

all true, but secondary to the fact that Justin just isnt a very good QB.

But said more simply: what is it about Justin's play so far that makes you think he would be a better overall QB, from the point of view of points on the board and wins, than a rookie QB in their rookie season? I dont even think there would be regression at all. I dont think Fields has done anything consistent that moves the needle on points and wins.

Youre right on both accounts. Fields showed some things I hadnt seen from him before against Atlanta, and if Fields is our QB next year, Im gonna root for him, until (if) he starts paying poorly at least. I just havent really seen enough evidence to think that Fields is a good bet, and if they keep him and Eberflus, and they dont come out of the gate humming, I'll start thinking we really messed up pretty quick. And also, I need to see us beat GOOD teams. And of course with Mahomes, the reason we talk about him is because of all the good games he's had, and Justin just doesnt have them on tape. We won half of the games that Bagent started. Im not suggesting that Bagent should be our presumptive starter, but that the team CAN win without Justin. For all his flashy plays, Im not sure he increases our ability to win games more than any of the rookies would. And thats kind of my main point - a new QB doesnt put you back to 0 wins. Justin isnt that far over baseline. Play to play he is - he makes amazing escapes. But at the end of the day, on the scoreboard, I dont think Justin's added value over the median QB is much at all. But more to the point - the rookie will get better, whereas I dont think Justin is ever gonna be that guy to play in structure. If we have a rookie QB next year, it shouldnt be awful. If the OC is good, we should be able to win as many games as we won this year. QB aside, I think the schedule we would like to be on is playoffs this year, NFC Championship game in 2025 and Superbowl contender 2026 and 2027. You have to grow into that. If you have a rookie, that probably pushes that back a year - but its one that can be made up in 2025 if the team is clicking. I think it's a mistake to take a trend line and predict the future from that. Its not a line, its a curve as diminished returns kick in when youre looking to unseat the good teams. I dont think you can look at Fields' growth curve and expect a Superbowl at the end of it. You cant say "we went from 3 wins to 7 wins so I expect 10 wins next year" Going from awful to mediocre is growth but it doesnt imply better than average is next. If you plug holes you get to mediocre, that doesnt imply that greatness is next. I dont know if any of the rookie QBs will be good. I expect at least 1 will be great. i dont know which one though. Poles gets to stake his reputation on that, or on keeping Justin. But if you dont try, youll never get a great one, and I dont think Justin will ever be great on the scoreboard. I think that the floor for rookie QBs isnt as low as you think either. If you pick the wrong one, I doubt they will be unserviceable. I doubt that if they dont hit that they will be functionally that much worse than Fields has been if at all. You wont get the highlight plays, but youll get an offense that is recognizable as football. So I dont see a lot of upside to Fields, and I dont see as much downside to a rookie. The biggest selling point for keeping Fields is the haul you get with that #1 pick. But a franchise QB is worth even more, if you can get it right.

So youre saying that because a good QB has bad games, that means that a QB who has only ever had one game over 300 yards is as good as Mahomes because Mahomes is bad like Fields sometimes? I just dont get it. Weve seen 3 years of Fields, and Im not judging him on stats, I know the context he was in - I just watch the film and see that Fields doesnt show he has it to play QB within a system. And Its not me saying it, all kinds of pundits, those who like Fields too, know that this is his problem. Why do you want to hitch the Bears future to a QB who hasnt shown he can play the position?

I mean Kmet. He can block a safety. But more to your point, Bowers would be great helping clean up trash in the flats and on the perimeter.

for sure a good TE that you utilize well in the offense can be a huge weapon, and all the great QBs and teams had them. Ever since the west coast routes were discovered, and body position became as important as getting free into space, the big power forwards at TE in the NFL have increased in value to their teams a lot. Kmet has taken a while for the light to come on, but he seems to be ascending and he is still young. Bowers is another level of athlete though. And to your point about blocking on the perimeter, why didnt Getsy ever do that? No matter what I say about JF, Getsy is a turd in his own right too.

I totally agree. I think Wright is going to be a Hall Of Famer before it's all over, and i said so before his first snap. 25 years from now I'll remind you all again LOL Stats are funny, with some players they tell a story, with others they actually hide the story. And if it's PFF doing the stats, then all bets are off! You gotta watch the all 22 and/or the behind the QB tape, and you gotta watch the player you're judging. And you need to have some decent guess at what they were supposed to do on that play too. But yeah, Wright is a beast you can build around for a decade or more. I was very pleased with all of our rookies really. Scott needs to get more dialed in, but who knows really, the whole passing game was screwed. Whatever the reason. But Scott aside, the rookies all got significantly better across the season.

Yeah there were individuals who played hard and well, but it was hardly the HITS philosophy in action. I liked Wright's season for sure, and Jenkins is a beast. But yeah, we need better. I know I still think Fields had his issues, regardless of the line, but we agree the line needs more.

for sure, definitely written by a PR agent

Oh well thats much easier to answer. I have seen Fields dozens of times when he was not being rushed look at an open receiver as they came to the break in their route, have his hips open to that player and just not throw the ball. The idea that Justin couldnt do it because he was always being rushed is false. he may have seen plays with pressure, and every QB does, but he had literally dozens of times where what I describe happened. He had plenty of opportunities to show it and didnt, on plays where he had time. I even diagrammed some about a month back, you could see the pocket. Here's a good one. Think Mahomes wouldnt have made this play? Justin just didnt pull the trigger on Moore. Or the other open WR either. Instead he ran to the left out of the pocket. Why? Dozens of times Im saying out lout to the TV "THROW THE BALL!" So come on.

If they take a QB at #1, I will be excited for sure, and I will root for them to develop and ball out. I was over the moon when we got Justin Fields. Even as recently as the beginning of this season I was telling everyone this was Fields' year and he was gonna destroy the league. I'll feel the same about whoever we draft. But Im not gonna lie. If we trade down to #3, and get Daniels or Maye Im gonna be just as excited and a little less apprehensive. BUT after I watch all the film in Feb and March, I might become a total Williams fan too. Right now I only know the extra stuff, and I surely dont like it. But if Caleb is the man, and he is a Bear, I'm gonna be hopeful for that too.

I think he had a four year deal, and the Bears are only ever willing to eat one year of salary. We kept Nagy too long, we are keeping Eberflus too long etc. And it's DUMB because youve got a quarter billion dollars of players money on the field EVERY year, and if you eat an extra year of Eberflus, its nothing comparatively, but if you WIN with a better coach youll sell shirts and your franchise value will go up. With Harbaugh out there sniffing around, and some other big names available, to not even consider them is just malpractice.

it'll be mixed. my GUESS is that by March we will be in love with him as an athlete, and tell ourselves hes not a character risk. One one hand i could easily allow myself to be really down on him, and hope for Maye or Daniels or something, and on the other hand, he might really just be that good. But he could have kept his ego in check just a few times and been Captain America instead. And that's a mistake no matter what happens from here.

that he had to add "enters the process excited for whoever ends up selecting him." is spin for a problem Caleb has created.

Its a well crafted piece of PR. Im sure it has truth in it as well, and I doubt very much that he wrote it. First off I am very glad he is remaining in the draft and not pulling a supplemental draft stunt. If he had not entered the draft, it would have put a serious crimp in the value of our first pick - whatever we choose to do with it. Unless we are taking Maye or Daniels with #1, Williams' absence would have cost us plenty. Secondly, I'm not sold that he's a team player. I think the things he's said and the things his father has said are red flags. Im not saying they would prevent me from taking Williams - I still need to see a lot more film before I have an opinion on any of that. But he's been arrogant, selfish and egotistical, and it does cause me more than some concern. That fact that he even had to write this letter is evidence of the problem. This will require more watching and attention - but I'm glad he is in the draft for sure. it would have been much worse if he wasn't. Sheesh what a mess.

If you hire a coach on a four year plan, and they make a ton of unforced errors, you fire them before the plan is over. If the coach was making good choices, but losing because the roster wasnt there, thats one thing, but when they are making bad choices on their own, there is no reason to keep them. If Im at a restaurant, and the appetizers are massively undercooked, and the entree is completely undercooked - I dont need to order dessert to know the meal sucked.

Oh for sure - I dont think anyone is saying Bagent should have started over Fields - just using Bagent as a baseline to show that Fields being sacked so much isnt just the OL and WRs, but Fields holding on to the ball too long - compared to Bagent who didnt hold it too long, but threw more interceptions.

This is great

Im not trying to avoid the question youre asking, I promise - I love a good debate - I guess Im not understanding what im missing? If i hear you right now, maybe this answers? Yes Mahomes would absolutely succeed in the system we ran for Justin AND we wouldnt have run such a limited system if we werent so scared of Justin's shortcomings. Getsy would have called more pocket pass plays if hed trusted Justin. Now we are going to agree, that if that is true, it could be said that the coaches were being TOO scared. Id have rather let Justin have more regular pass plays, even if to prove himself not the guy, but at the same time, on a large percentage of the ones they gave him, he wasnt able to pull the trigger within the design of the play. And if youre Getsy, you dont want to keep having Justin fail in front of everyone and lose games, so you dial it back and try to find ways to win with him. It just means a lot of screens at the end of the day cuz those were the only plays they KNEW Justin would throw the ball in rhythm. So its a chicken and the egg thing. So yes Mahomes would make any system work, and Getsy wouldnt have throttled down Mahomes the way he probably felt he had to with Fields? ANd yes you can blame Fields and Getsy for that of course. Jackson is Jackson, so I dont know what he'd do. I do know that the quick shift Herster-like homerun runs we saw from Fields in 2022 were missing this year. My guess is they gave him a rule to slide rather than try to put a move on defenders. For injury concerns thats understandable, but i dont think Jackson would listen to that coaching, so hed be successful in this offense maybe by not listening to the safe aspects of the coaching? Do I blame Justin for listening? No that wouldnt be fair. So I think some of the limiting factors of the offense were attempts to deal with Justin's weaknesses. Did I address what youre asking about? If Im still missing it, say more please?

or even try. "Eberflus is not only worth keeping, he is the best option out there" really.

Im with you. I havent seen anywhere near enough, and a lot of what I need to see, no one has edited yet LOL And I look forward to your first hand accounts of their body language - do they stand apart from, or joke around with the other QBs etc. I wanna see if the other QBs like him on a personal level while they are there?