BearFan PHX

Youre right on both accounts. Fields showed some things I hadnt seen from him before against Atlanta, and if Fields is our QB next year, Im gonna root for him, until (if) he starts paying poorly at least. I just havent really seen enough evidence to think that Fields is a good bet, and if they keep him and Eberflus, and they dont come out of the gate humming, I'll start thinking we really messed up pretty quick. And also, I need to see us beat GOOD teams. And of course with Mahomes, the reason we talk about him is because of all the good games he's had, and Justin just doesnt have them on tape. We won half of the games that Bagent started. Im not suggesting that Bagent should be our presumptive starter, but that the team CAN win without Justin. For all his flashy plays, Im not sure he increases our ability to win games more than any of the rookies would. And thats kind of my main point - a new QB doesnt put you back to 0 wins. Justin isnt that far over baseline. Play to play he is - he makes amazing escapes. But at the end of the day, on the scoreboard, I dont think Justin's added value over the median QB is much at all. But more to the point - the rookie will get better, whereas I dont think Justin is ever gonna be that guy to play in structure. If we have a rookie QB next year, it shouldnt be awful. If the OC is good, we should be able to win as many games as we won this year. QB aside, I think the schedule we would like to be on is playoffs this year, NFC Championship game in 2025 and Superbowl contender 2026 and 2027. You have to grow into that. If you have a rookie, that probably pushes that back a year - but its one that can be made up in 2025 if the team is clicking. I think it's a mistake to take a trend line and predict the future from that. Its not a line, its a curve as diminished returns kick in when youre looking to unseat the good teams. I dont think you can look at Fields' growth curve and expect a Superbowl at the end of it. You cant say "we went from 3 wins to 7 wins so I expect 10 wins next year" Going from awful to mediocre is growth but it doesnt imply better than average is next. If you plug holes you get to mediocre, that doesnt imply that greatness is next. I dont know if any of the rookie QBs will be good. I expect at least 1 will be great. i dont know which one though. Poles gets to stake his reputation on that, or on keeping Justin. But if you dont try, youll never get a great one, and I dont think Justin will ever be great on the scoreboard. I think that the floor for rookie QBs isnt as low as you think either. If you pick the wrong one, I doubt they will be unserviceable. I doubt that if they dont hit that they will be functionally that much worse than Fields has been if at all. You wont get the highlight plays, but youll get an offense that is recognizable as football. So I dont see a lot of upside to Fields, and I dont see as much downside to a rookie. The biggest selling point for keeping Fields is the haul you get with that #1 pick. But a franchise QB is worth even more, if you can get it right.

So youre saying that because a good QB has bad games, that means that a QB who has only ever had one game over 300 yards is as good as Mahomes because Mahomes is bad like Fields sometimes? I just dont get it. Weve seen 3 years of Fields, and Im not judging him on stats, I know the context he was in - I just watch the film and see that Fields doesnt show he has it to play QB within a system. And Its not me saying it, all kinds of pundits, those who like Fields too, know that this is his problem. Why do you want to hitch the Bears future to a QB who hasnt shown he can play the position?

I mean Kmet. He can block a safety. But more to your point, Bowers would be great helping clean up trash in the flats and on the perimeter.

for sure a good TE that you utilize well in the offense can be a huge weapon, and all the great QBs and teams had them. Ever since the west coast routes were discovered, and body position became as important as getting free into space, the big power forwards at TE in the NFL have increased in value to their teams a lot. Kmet has taken a while for the light to come on, but he seems to be ascending and he is still young. Bowers is another level of athlete though. And to your point about blocking on the perimeter, why didnt Getsy ever do that? No matter what I say about JF, Getsy is a turd in his own right too.

I totally agree. I think Wright is going to be a Hall Of Famer before it's all over, and i said so before his first snap. 25 years from now I'll remind you all again LOL Stats are funny, with some players they tell a story, with others they actually hide the story. And if it's PFF doing the stats, then all bets are off! You gotta watch the all 22 and/or the behind the QB tape, and you gotta watch the player you're judging. And you need to have some decent guess at what they were supposed to do on that play too. But yeah, Wright is a beast you can build around for a decade or more. I was very pleased with all of our rookies really. Scott needs to get more dialed in, but who knows really, the whole passing game was screwed. Whatever the reason. But Scott aside, the rookies all got significantly better across the season.

Yeah there were individuals who played hard and well, but it was hardly the HITS philosophy in action. I liked Wright's season for sure, and Jenkins is a beast. But yeah, we need better. I know I still think Fields had his issues, regardless of the line, but we agree the line needs more.

for sure, definitely written by a PR agent

Oh well thats much easier to answer. I have seen Fields dozens of times when he was not being rushed look at an open receiver as they came to the break in their route, have his hips open to that player and just not throw the ball. The idea that Justin couldnt do it because he was always being rushed is false. he may have seen plays with pressure, and every QB does, but he had literally dozens of times where what I describe happened. He had plenty of opportunities to show it and didnt, on plays where he had time. I even diagrammed some about a month back, you could see the pocket. Here's a good one. Think Mahomes wouldnt have made this play? Justin just didnt pull the trigger on Moore. Or the other open WR either. Instead he ran to the left out of the pocket. Why? Dozens of times Im saying out lout to the TV "THROW THE BALL!" So come on.

If they take a QB at #1, I will be excited for sure, and I will root for them to develop and ball out. I was over the moon when we got Justin Fields. Even as recently as the beginning of this season I was telling everyone this was Fields' year and he was gonna destroy the league. I'll feel the same about whoever we draft. But Im not gonna lie. If we trade down to #3, and get Daniels or Maye Im gonna be just as excited and a little less apprehensive. BUT after I watch all the film in Feb and March, I might become a total Williams fan too. Right now I only know the extra stuff, and I surely dont like it. But if Caleb is the man, and he is a Bear, I'm gonna be hopeful for that too.

I think he had a four year deal, and the Bears are only ever willing to eat one year of salary. We kept Nagy too long, we are keeping Eberflus too long etc. And it's DUMB because youve got a quarter billion dollars of players money on the field EVERY year, and if you eat an extra year of Eberflus, its nothing comparatively, but if you WIN with a better coach youll sell shirts and your franchise value will go up. With Harbaugh out there sniffing around, and some other big names available, to not even consider them is just malpractice.

it'll be mixed. my GUESS is that by March we will be in love with him as an athlete, and tell ourselves hes not a character risk. One one hand i could easily allow myself to be really down on him, and hope for Maye or Daniels or something, and on the other hand, he might really just be that good. But he could have kept his ego in check just a few times and been Captain America instead. And that's a mistake no matter what happens from here.

that he had to add "enters the process excited for whoever ends up selecting him." is spin for a problem Caleb has created.

Its a well crafted piece of PR. Im sure it has truth in it as well, and I doubt very much that he wrote it. First off I am very glad he is remaining in the draft and not pulling a supplemental draft stunt. If he had not entered the draft, it would have put a serious crimp in the value of our first pick - whatever we choose to do with it. Unless we are taking Maye or Daniels with #1, Williams' absence would have cost us plenty. Secondly, I'm not sold that he's a team player. I think the things he's said and the things his father has said are red flags. Im not saying they would prevent me from taking Williams - I still need to see a lot more film before I have an opinion on any of that. But he's been arrogant, selfish and egotistical, and it does cause me more than some concern. That fact that he even had to write this letter is evidence of the problem. This will require more watching and attention - but I'm glad he is in the draft for sure. it would have been much worse if he wasn't. Sheesh what a mess.

If you hire a coach on a four year plan, and they make a ton of unforced errors, you fire them before the plan is over. If the coach was making good choices, but losing because the roster wasnt there, thats one thing, but when they are making bad choices on their own, there is no reason to keep them. If Im at a restaurant, and the appetizers are massively undercooked, and the entree is completely undercooked - I dont need to order dessert to know the meal sucked.

Oh for sure - I dont think anyone is saying Bagent should have started over Fields - just using Bagent as a baseline to show that Fields being sacked so much isnt just the OL and WRs, but Fields holding on to the ball too long - compared to Bagent who didnt hold it too long, but threw more interceptions.

This is great

Im not trying to avoid the question youre asking, I promise - I love a good debate - I guess Im not understanding what im missing? If i hear you right now, maybe this answers? Yes Mahomes would absolutely succeed in the system we ran for Justin AND we wouldnt have run such a limited system if we werent so scared of Justin's shortcomings. Getsy would have called more pocket pass plays if hed trusted Justin. Now we are going to agree, that if that is true, it could be said that the coaches were being TOO scared. Id have rather let Justin have more regular pass plays, even if to prove himself not the guy, but at the same time, on a large percentage of the ones they gave him, he wasnt able to pull the trigger within the design of the play. And if youre Getsy, you dont want to keep having Justin fail in front of everyone and lose games, so you dial it back and try to find ways to win with him. It just means a lot of screens at the end of the day cuz those were the only plays they KNEW Justin would throw the ball in rhythm. So its a chicken and the egg thing. So yes Mahomes would make any system work, and Getsy wouldnt have throttled down Mahomes the way he probably felt he had to with Fields? ANd yes you can blame Fields and Getsy for that of course. Jackson is Jackson, so I dont know what he'd do. I do know that the quick shift Herster-like homerun runs we saw from Fields in 2022 were missing this year. My guess is they gave him a rule to slide rather than try to put a move on defenders. For injury concerns thats understandable, but i dont think Jackson would listen to that coaching, so hed be successful in this offense maybe by not listening to the safe aspects of the coaching? Do I blame Justin for listening? No that wouldnt be fair. So I think some of the limiting factors of the offense were attempts to deal with Justin's weaknesses. Did I address what youre asking about? If Im still missing it, say more please?

or even try. "Eberflus is not only worth keeping, he is the best option out there" really.

Im with you. I havent seen anywhere near enough, and a lot of what I need to see, no one has edited yet LOL And I look forward to your first hand accounts of their body language - do they stand apart from, or joke around with the other QBs etc. I wanna see if the other QBs like him on a personal level while they are there?

Exactly. We dont object to running QBs, we object to QBs that cant read defenses and throw in rhythm. Mahomes does that all day.

I think its a wasted year, but if it gets rid of Eberflus then as long as we get a 2025 first round draft pick out of it, to package with our first rounder, to go up and get a rookie QB next year, then it wont be a franchise kill shot. Just a waste of a year on the window of the roster weve built. If on the other hand we stock up the team around Fields, and leave no ammo to replace him in the 2025 draft, then I think we lived through 2022 for nothing and will be right back to the same awful place we've been for 30 years. 6 to 9 wins. Good enough to not get a top pick where the difference makers are, but bad enough not to win anything in post season. If they trade Fields, then Im still not thrilled with keeping Eberflus, but at least we'd still be on schedule with the roster. Fields had this year to prove his case, and all he did was prove that he doesnt belong as a starting QB. Will he grow next year? Who knows? Maybe! But I wouldnt bet on it personally. And i wouldnt pay him the big money right now, i think that's a huge error. Put another way - what is the fair market price for CJ Stroud right now? at least 3 first round picks. You couldnt offer the Texans just our #1 pick for Stroud. Why take a risk when they already have what they have, right? So whatever you get trading that thing down, no matter how amazing, no matter how many positions you fill, it isnt worth a CJ Stroud, no less a Pat Mahomes or a Payton Manning etc. Now, if there is not a great QB in this draft (maybe there isnt) then just taking a guy with the first few picks doesnt magically make him CJ Stroud. I agree. But there are 4 or 5 tantalizing prospects in this year's draft, and one of them at least is gonna be good. Which one? That's the tough question. But keeping Fields isnt a tough call at all - for me. Also, having your cake and eating it too could be just trading down to #3 or so, and still taking a QB.

Justin Fields wants to tell a pretty girl hello, but he hesitates until the moment has passed, and then either deftly runs into a bar to pick up someone else, or asks her too late after shes already married. 1 in 10 times, the girls husband beats him up too. And at least once a game, he fumbles too. I dunno what he fumbles in this metaphor - his phone? His testicles? LOL

I do think any player can develop, so i wont make unsubstatiated guesses at what he could become, but so far no way. He is neither of those QBs. I think you have the argument backward. There are two different abilities. One is reading defenses, and getting the ball out to the right guy in rhythm. Let's call that Pocket Passing. Then there is exceptional extra athleticism. Some QBs have it and some dont. Justin has about as much of it as any QB ever. The guys you listed have BOTH. So when I say you need to be a capable Pocket Passer, you hear me saying that Exceptional Athleticism doesnt work. But Im not saying that at all. Im saying it has to come along WITH Pocket Passing. Mahomes has a ton of it. And Jackson is a lot better at it too - more than JF has ever been able to do it. Im not against running, but I am against QBs who cant read a defense. Running alone isnt enough. You heard the Packers LB say that their plan was to take away JFs first read because then he gets flustered and runs. They know it. You saw our coaches take the ball out of Fields hands and limit his plays where he reads defenses. They Know it too. The reason we called so many roll outs and screens is because those are passes where the QB has to throw the ball, and doesnt make a read. Yes, some of the roll outs have a high low concept so you make a single read. But our opponents know it. Our coaches know it. The pundits know it. The GMs who wont trade a first rounder for him know it. Saying Fields has shown that he can execute an offense from the pocket is simply false. Saying that he is very athletic and can still grow to do better at reading defenses is an opinion. I dont share it, but anyone is entitled to it. But stop telling me that Fields is already great at that or even serviceable at it and its just everyone else's fault that we havent see it, cuz that's nonsense LOL

I think we've all seen many many clips of Fields staring down open receivers and not pulling the trigger in time. He hesitates, and the window closes, then he runs. This isnt new or controversial at all. It's a lot of excuses out there for Justin, but it's been the #1 criticism of him even before the Bears drafted him. All the pre draft analysis of him says it. So does three years of film. Hes got a ton of athleticism, but he doesnt execute the offense. This isnt just my little pet theory, it's widely discussed, even among those who think Justin will eventually break through. Some may think that Justin will grow and become a great passer. I have my opinion, but no crystal ball. But you cant say that hasnt been his primary issue up until now - thats just peein on me and telling me its raining? The future is unknown, but the past is written and on tape and the truth is the truth. Justin is not secretly already an awesome executor of the offense, but we just cant see it because of the OL and WRs. Thats ridiculous.

oh Id settle for just one of them LOL