BearFan PHX

what hes wrong about is that hes saying we here on the board look to criticize Fields unfairly. He is saying that we take things out of context to blame him unfairly. But I havent seen much of anyone attacking Fields on stats. I've been talking about reading defenses and they dont keep a number on that. Im talking about plays where Fields has guys open and doesnt pull the trigger. If we are running more that doesnt affect that, so the snide comment makes no actual sense. It's just like he's taking criticisms of Fields personally. It wasnt a comment he was making about Fields or even answering a specific criticism, it was just a fighty, sarcastic personal attack on the character of people on the board. It's a small thing, but for many years they were aimed at me by name, and after a while and hundreds of them they build up to become very childish and unpleasant not to mention disrespectful. On pretty much every post I make about Fields, I also say he is one of the best broken play QBs of all time. I routinely say that if he added reading defenses, hed be one of the best QBs in the league. I talk about his athletic skills, and his personality. He's likeable. Ive said all that dozens of times. I've even said you can beat lesser teams with hero ball. I just wish we could keep the debate to the players and such and not to the character of members of the board. Last thing Ill say about this: I ramped up obvious over the top personal attacks against this stuff on purpose so that we would finally be told to all stop. If it seems ironic that im calling for no personal attacks, maybe that helps explain it.

That was the most in rhythm throw from Fields maybe ever. The ball was out FAST. Nice.

he is

fully agree! Im only saying if the new coaches want them. What youre saying here is 100% right.

he's had a couple ofgood passes from the pocket, and a few more he was late on. DJ Moore on the play he was injured on, and a nice timing throw to Kmet on the left sideline (not the long pass) were the two examples I saw. They were both in the first drive scripted pre-digested plays though. I am looking forward to more of them - they are so valuable.

are there many precedents for keeping position coaches thru a staff change? I seem to remember some when Lovie left. Does anyone know if its common at all?

and Fields did a great job of slowing down to set up Kmets block too.

lol - itd be nice to be able to pick and choose coaches, but if you fire Eberflus, I dunno how defensive backs coaches feel? Would we still have them under contract? Thinking out loud here - maybe we do. Usually new coordinators want their guys, but I do think we have some good ones.

our secondary is stocked. the rookies have been playing really well, and last years rookies are leaders. Put in someone for EJax, and you have nowhere to really pick on at all, while Sweat is coming down fast. Nice. I think you have to give credit to the Bears' defensive position coaches.

the light has really come on for Kmet this year.

please stop being fighty, sarcastic and making this about the people on the board.

If you do find stats on that please share them, because i would love to see them - it would answer a lot of questions for me.

all good points. I agree with all of it. I really need to do my offseason film time before I can have a real opinion on these QBs, but right now, I think Williams is overrated. I am especially worried about his being only 6' 1" - but maybe thats because all I have right now are stats, and I havent seen much film, and no all 22 yet. To me, the player to wonder about with the #1 pick is Marvin Harrison Jr. - even if he is the second coming of Randy Moss (not saying he is) I'd still trade him for 3 firsts and a player at a position of need, so maybe it doesnt even matter. If the haul is big enough, you gotta look at it, and that is in line with what a lot of people on this board have done in these simulators. On the other hand, having Randy Moss and DJ Moore is gonna make any rookie QB a lot more comfortable. Brock Purdy looks great, but he also has great receivers getting open too.

I agree with you about style ceilings. I do want to make this distinction though - there is nothing wrong with being a great runner, extending plays etc. All the things Fields does well are incredible positives. Given two QBs of equal pocket ability, one with Justin's extra skills and one without, Ill take the one with all day long. Justin's extra skills are incredible. But a QB also has to be able to make reads in rhythm, otherwise theres no point to even having plays or routes or anything. I havent seen Lamar play much at all, so I dont know if he is better than Fields at reading and throwing in rhythm. Basically, Im not against QBs that are great at hero ball when the play breaks down at ALL. It's an amazing thing to add to your arsenal. But it has to be in addition to the core skills of being a QB, it cannot replace them. If Lamar makes reads and runs, then that's awesome. If he only runs like Justin, then I think your point about testing ceilings is dead on. I'll add this too - simply comparing completion % stats and stuff wont really tell the story on this. If Fields is on the run and makes a completion, it's an incredible positive, but it isnt the same as making reads in rhythm. If Justin could do that too, he would be one of the best QBs in the league and I'd be for signing him to a big long terms deal.

if you can do it regularly against good teams, yes. But my point is that you can beat bad teams with hero ball but will never beat good teams in the playoffs that way. So if Fields manages to have a game or two where he does that, I cant really call that progress. If on the other hand, he throws only 2 TDs, but moves the chains consistently with on time reads and throws, THEN I will definitely call that progress. Thats where the difference between stats and context are for me.

very cool - thank you. I was just wondering what kind of draft hauls people could get while not trading the first pick. I see a lot of incredible drafts where we get 7 first rounders next year and all that, and Im wondering if that kind of magic is available in these draft games if you trade down the 5th (or whatever) pick but not the #1 overall. I do admit that no player, QB, MHJr whoever is worth 7 2025 firsts. So if that really is on the table in the real world, you gotta take it. I dont think it is, but these draft games are fun, and Im just wondering if you can get a haul in the game without trading the #1.

this is also part of the argument for having new coaches if you draft a new QB. when the coaches are failing and on the way out the door, you just ruin the confidence of young QBs. All that said though, there are myriad examples of Fields with a clean pocket looking right at wide open first read WRs and not pulling the trigger. And you cant just put this on the Bears since it was the number one criticism of him coming out of college too. If he throws for 4 TDs on the run today it isnt going to change my mind. But if he sits in the pocket and makes reads consistently, that is going to be the road to success for him here or wherever he goes.

I still dont see Fields regularly reading through his progression and throwing the ball to the open man at the point the route is designed to break open.

Good one - yeah I think you're right, and it proves it's a cumulative rolling average kind of thing, not a week to week raw data thing. Thank you. Rodgers and Manning's slopes are amazing. The lack of valleys probably means they not only play at a high level, but they do it consistently week to week. And however it works, if you consistently put up good performances, that's gonna make your line go up for sure. If Fields can consistently have 300+ yard 3 TD games, he would start to elevate, and of course if he did that, we'd all want to keep him! So far in his career, he's gone over 200 seven times, and only got over 300 once, against Denver this year, in a game we lost, the week after Denver gave up 70 points. And that seems to have made his bump go up there for a while. But Fields is talented, and there is no way to know what tomorrow brings, I admit.

I dunno, it looks like Justin's line is pretty far under Trevor's except for that one hump where they crossed before Trevor took off? And I admit I really don't know what elo IS, so I may be missing something fundamental? If JF wins out, do you know what his elo number would be? I think it includes a bunch of stats too, not just winning, more like a different kind of QBR, but I am pretty ignorant of what it is, or how the chart works. For example, if you could have one game with a QBR of 0 and the next week of 150, would the ELO jump vertically, or does it slope like a chess rating, like a rolling weighted average? In any case, you know my argument about reading and timing and all that, and that JF winning games in different ways doesnt really address this concern directly? We get to see another one tomorrow, for sure.

Oh man, i think translating from college to the pros is impossible to do reliably. I think every QB has to grow in the NFL to survive, and you can guess at how well they'll take to the new league, but until they actually do it, that's literally the billion dollar question. If someone could do just that, they could charge a ransom for the information. GMs get paid pretty well to approximate nothing more than a decent guess at this, and they get full staffs of scouts and analysts to do it. And they're still so hit and miss. I'd love to see a set of numbers that you could trust on this, a trend you could apply, but i dont think one really exists. i know a lot of people try to find a way to crunch the numbers to get a definitive answer to this, but they cant. I do think it's easier to guess at who won't make it, you can rule some out, but this is THE big question in a league full of multi billion dollar franchises. You could find a college version of this, but as far as how they relate, I doubt there is any algorithm that could find any reliable predictive trend.

a freakin men. and just like the New England fans, people will be upset as favorite players are traded away, but that is the winning formula if you can pull it off and make the right replacement choices.

That's what I think too. The acquisition phase burns out pretty quick. I think that's why teams like New England were trading away good players before their second deals, like Akiem Hicks. It kept them in rookie contracts and constant draft acquisition mode. It's risky, but if you are great at talent evaluation, it's the way to go to keep yourself in the hunt year after year - assuming you have a great QB all sewn up of course. But it's hard on fans who grow attached to players who are playing well. It's a brutal business.

LOL fair enough.

Its interesting. I added those other Bears QBs from over the years and Justin looks just terri ble beneath even the worst of them, but then, Trevor Lawrence is in the same neighborhood before getting better. I know the data is adjusted in some way for different eras, and I wonder if that is making Fields look more terrible in the charts that I posted than is fair, since everyone from this modern class is so far below. Makes me wonder if the adjustments are fair. I still think what i think about Fields from having watched the film, but Im wondering if the era to era comparisons on this site are fair. Even still Fields now is at Trevor's lowest point. And Zach Wilson - wow.