BearFan PHX

good point, I hadnt considered compensatory picks angle, thank you for that. I wonder though, given all the cap space we have, whether we will qualify for compensatory picks, since we will be signing free agents too. Even still though, your point does make a rational justification for at least a 3rd round value. And that's right where I predict he'd fall too. I'm not personally on board with taking a top QB and keeping JF, but thats just my opinion, and I get the logic of what youre saying too. Also, if multiple teams are bidding, it could go much higher depending on what they are willing to offer to win a bidding war. But who knows what that market could be. Obviously the more teams are interested, the higher the price goes. It's not how badly we want to trade him that sets his value of course, but how badly more than one team wants him.

another set of former QBs that we all watched

Heres one against some other QBs we are familiar with

Hey Grizz, here's one site that will do it for you https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/

Im curious - can you guys do one where you keep the #1 pick and take MHJr, and still take a good QB no later than #11 and see what else you can get? I'd love to see how much value you guys can squeeze out of that scenario?

If we could even just get 30, that would be amazing. I would LOVE to be wrong on my guessed valuation.

interesting that Fields right now is right where Trubisky is right now. It's also super interesting to see that all of them start strong and then bottom out in the second half of the first season. That's something to keep in mind for any new QB - when it happens, not to panic too early, because it seems to be the norm. I think they start off without anyone knowing them well, and they do well, then defenses get a book on what they do well, and then they have to improve other areas of their game that the defenses arent expecting and hopefully dig themselves out of the hole. It may also be that I dont understand exactly what ELO is, so maybe you have to play a few games poorly before your number drops from the initial average, like a chess rating, so maybe they arent good then bad, it just takes a minute for this metric to track how bad they are when they first get started?

In my opinion, the probable trade value of JF is a high 3rd rounder, possibly to a 2nd rounder if there are multiple suitors, or if there is a conditional performance clause that kicks in if JF does well on his new team. Im not sure I agree that you keep or trade him based on what you can get for him, but these are all just my guesses and opinion. I definitely agree with the last thing you wrote "The NFL is down to no names lining up with the rash of injuries." it's SO true, and I guess it really underlines how in the salary cap era the coaching difference is even more important. It's freakin hard to put together a Super Bowl winner and continue to contend for seasons before and after. Without some luck, a true all time top 10 QB, and/or a legendary coach, maybe even impossible. I think about New England, and how amazing what they did was. I'd love a taste of that here in Chicago. Heck, even our 85 team was a one year thing, and to some extent the year prior (84) - but then fell apart quickly.

whether we root for them to win, or root for an increased draft outcome, we are all rooting for the Bears one way or another. I think it should also be said that if we are firing Eberflus, then whatever culture happened around winning or tanking gets reset when the new guy comes in anyway, so I dont think it carries over. Especially if your QB is gone too? Also, Eberflus has the worst winning percentage of any coach in Bears history, so not much of a culture to preserve? I do think the locker room is full of high character guys, and if anything that's where our culture lies, and thats Poles as much as anyone. But all that said, it's hard to root against them, especially when the defense is on the field. Personally at this point, I feel more like an observer than someone who is "rooting" - I want to watch every chapter of the story of this team, and I look forward to having them be winners in contention again.

it sure would. and as seductive as trading down for a haul of picks is, getting MHJr and Williams/Daniels would be amazing.

all good thoughts, and dont forget we have a ton of cap space too, so some answers might come in free agency. Maybe OC and FS in free agency? And if we are trading Fields, thats another draft pick too in the 2nd or 3rd round probably. Maybe 2025 though if we want it to conditionally increase in value if Fields plays a certain percentage of snaps for them or something? QB, OC, WR, FS, DL, TE, P Id look at MHJr at #1, and find our QB with our second first rounder assuming we dont win too many games in the stretch here and lose that 2nd first rounder down to where you cant get a QB anymore?

sure, and they (we) see the incredible potential that Fields obviously has as an athlete. Not to mention the exciting plays he makes to turn disasters into first downs. His hero ball is incredible. There must be a number of coaches in the league that think they can coach the guy up into a winner. And the corollary to that argument is his flaws which I wont bother listing again. A GM's job is hard.

I dont even think the people on that list are all saying definitively that Fields should be back. I youtube searched a few of the names, and watched the most recent videos and the opinions I saw were more balanced and nuanced than just "yes" or "no" For example, Kurt Warner said that he doesnt think reading defenses is Fields' strength. Dan Orlovsky said it was impossible to make a decision, and he thinks Fields should make it hard for the Bears to make a decision. That's really more rooting for someone than making a GM decision. I know from JT OSullivan's videos, he says Fields misses reads all the time. In no way am I saying that the people on this list are for dumping Fields either. Just that they are kind of being even handed and optimistic, and avoiding making definitive statements on it, which is smart for pundits who want to be around next year too. And I think in general, pundits aren't in the business of crapping on active talented players. If you say "keep Fields" then you arent crapping on anyone. It's a stretch to say that's disrespectful, for example, to Caleb Williams. But if you say "trade Fields" then youre dissing Fields. It makes a lot more sense to avoid saying that directly. And that way, you cant really be wrong either. If a rookie busts or Fields thrives somewhere else, then the pundit who said to dump him has a -1 on the scoreboard. But no one will remember if you say keep him and he is traded, and busts out in the second team. I CAN say that Fields himself is talking like he thinks there's a good chance he won't be in Chicago next year. And of course he doesn't know either. But given that, I'll bet his agent has prepared him for it, and how to answer questions without getting frustrated or hurting his own image. So Fields' agent must think it's a decent chance he is out of Chicago. And he would likely have some sort of inside information, even if it wasnt definitive. But a kind of read on the situation at least? I could guess that if Poles knew he was keeping Fields, he might tell him that for confidence sake, but I can understand why he wouldnt too. So there are no crystal balls. But as we have said before, there are reasons other than Fields himself to trade him too, like salary cap, and rookie deal windows, and we dont even know what the Bears think about the rookie QB class either. They each have positives and negatives too. So whatever a pundit might say is just sportstalk. It's not evidence. Whether they say keep him or trade him.

exactly. this is the problem. he's got all the tools, and its so seductive to think you could fix him. especially with that amazing arm. He is an amazing athlete, but not a QB.

and some of it goes on the OL, but a lot of of it goes on how long Fields holds the ball. Stats always have to be in context, and the context of Fields not making faster decisions is showing up in lots of different stats, including sacks. It's easy to say that he needs more OL help, and no OL is perfect so every team needs more, but at some point, if you have to put pro bowl talent at every position around a QB to see if he will succeed, then maybe you need a new QB. I'm not a Getsy apologist, but one thought I keep having is, if I was the OC, and I had a QB that just wouldnt pull the trigger, would I call more plays that dont have reads and force the QB to throw the ball in rhythm without making multiple reads like screens and rollouts?

I agree Poles has been doing a really good job. I think that even if the original plan was to give Eberflus 3 years, that you can also do analysis on him now. If he'd been coaching well, and the roster just wasnt up to it, then I could understand staying with him. But given all the unforced errors he's made, I think you need to do analysis on him now, rather than being true to a plan you made two years ago. It isnt about what's fairest to Eberflus, but what's best for the team that matters. And if you're gonna change QBs, best to do that with a new coach and not the last year of an existing coach. We did that the last two times with Trubisky and Fields, and it hurt both of those players. I think it's best to get everyone on the same schedule, and get the new coach involved in the draft choice decision making.

Just to be clear, I have both called Eberflus "terrible" and "competent" what I mean is that as a head coach, his record and a lot of his strategic decisions and 4th quarter strategies have been terrible. But compared to any one of us (or at least me) or the average Madden player, Flus is a competent professional. He knows how to organize practices and meetings, and how to coach up a cover 2 for one example. I'm sure Eberflus has a eye for details that a guy like me would completely miss. Spacing on a cover 2 for example. Hes a pro, and Im just a fan. Out on the practice field, he has a career's worth of knowledge, that makes him a professional. But compared to other winning professional head coaches, he is terrible.

yes, the era of the Tampa Bay Bucs smothering you 13 to 9 and winning a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer are over. The league has changed the rules to make this a scoring league. Now if your defense is really good and your QB is ok but not great, youre gonna win a bunch of regular season games against the bottom half of the league. But I think it's a mistake to see progress from 3 wins to 8 wins as automatically fortelling a playoff winning team right around the corner. Once you get to the top 10 teams, you gotta score points to beat them, because they are going to find a way to score on you too, no matter how good your defense is. Progress in stats is a funny thing, as you elevate from the bottom to the middle, it looks like the trend line is continuing upward, but thats where context comes into things. Getting into the top 5 teams is a wholly different thing than climbing out of the basement.

the brightest spot this year has been watching the rookies and second year players on defense develop. that definitely has our arrow pointing up. no matter how bad our offense is next year, we will win more than 5 games for sure, and I doubt we will be in the hunt for a top draft pick again for a while.

To be fair, Claypool definitely quit on the team. So there's speculation enough to go around on Poles too, but overall i think he's done well. But in general, I dont see brilliant coaching by Eberflus. I see a roster getting better and the players doing it. Now this may well be an endorsement of the position coaches, but given all the strategic errors that Flus has made, I dont think he is a difference maker to the plus side - not enough to be retained. And like Ive said before, its not like he doesnt know what hes doing. He has shown competence, he is a professional, not a guy off the street, but in this league i think youre looking for that rare genius that increases your chances to win. They are hard to impossible to find, but I think you gotta keep trying. I think the main difference of opinion on this hinges on whether you're thinking about what's fair or nice to Eberflus, or whether you are laser focused on building a dominant winner. If Flus is a 7 out of 10 for example (not saying he is, just hypothetically) then is it fair to him to fire him? Probably not. Does he "deserve" another chance? Sure. But if you're looking for a 10 out of 10 to lead your team for a decade, then you gotta be willing to throw a 7/10 back into the water and fish again. yes the next one might be a 6, but until you have a 10 (or at least a 9!) you gotta keep trying. So to me, it's not about fairness or loyalty to Eberflus of Fields or anyone, but about a quest for excellent where competence and decent dont cut it? The counter argument to what Im saying is that a player may still be improving. That's a tough bet, and one that you gotta evaluate all the time in the NFL, and it's tough. But a coach? By the time they get to be a head coach, they should be pretty much fully cooked. It's not like making decisions like going for it on 4th down, or calling timeouts, or getting too conservative in the 4th quarter are new ideas that the coach is just learning. Theyve been in the league a while and watched all of this. If we the fans know this stuff, a head coach ought not to have to be learning on the job. So the argument to stick with Fields because he is still growing is one I dont agree with, but it is a valid argument. But I dont think its one that really applies to head coaches?

I suppose the counter argument would be that Poles drafted and acquired so many players of good moral character that the locker room stays tight, no matter who the coach is? Or look at it in the converse - if we'd taken Jalen Carter (and players like him) would they have quit on Eberflus?

I wonder where Dexter will end up in terms of being an impact player. He may have developed and learned the most of any rookie this year. Remember how slow he was off the ball? it was a real concern. And then by about week 7 he was as fast as anyone on the line. Hes a physical beast too, and the pressure anjd sacks are starting to come now too. But all that said, we do at the very least need a rotational 3T to take Jones place in the next year or so? And if that player turns out to be dominant, and pushes Dexter back to 2nd string, that will only be a bonus. All this to say that 3T is a need, but i dunno if I have it as the #1 need?

please just let it END. please.

and yet I begged you over and over to stop fighting with me, to stop speaking to or about me, and you kept "rattling my cage" i think you described it yourself. yes, your constant years long condescension, sarcasm and personal jibes have been passive aggressive, and under the radar and constant for years, and yes after asking, then demanding that you stop and you didnt, I blew it up until it was so unpleasant that admins had to ask us BOTH to stop - my purpose exactly. So just stop. We dont need to prove anything else. We just need to stop the whole discussion about all of it. Thats ALL Ive wanted this whole time. With each increasingly unpleasant volley I included that you could end it all if you just STOP. So just STOP.

even more awesome. Tell us what you see!