BearFan PHX

even more awesome. Tell us what you see!

is it open to the public? thats awesome.

and how many of those came on hero ball plays? Fields is the best at that. I'd feel much better about his future and the comparisons to Brees etc. if his stats were coming in the normal course of the intention of the plays. Then it'd just be about getting better, not having to learn a whole new skill that is central to being an NFL QB?

yeah, I sent you a PM, Im not trying to keep it alive here on the board. All i wanted was for it to stop, and then we can all just talk about the Bears.

very cool - also Adam I wrote you a PM...

To me, the thing about Fields is that it's not just his stats that need to progress, but the specific skill of throwing the ball to the right receiver in context of your progressions in the intended timing of the play. I don't see him doing that much at all for plays that have reads. So he can throw for more and more yards on broken plays, and forced reads like screens, but that isnt progress in terms of the main skill for a QB. I don't think that Brees had that problem, he just needed to get better in general at a skill he was already showing, Fields needs to acquire that primary QB skill, and really hasnt. To be clear, Fields may be the best broken play QB of all time. And it is a valid opinion, even though I don't share it, that that style could win playoff games. But I'm not seeing much development in the area I'm concerned about, so stats alone don't really tell the story, and the 4th year development of other QBs don't really set a pattern here either, since they didn't have that problem, they were just increasing overall, and not relying on hero ball needing to learn how to play QB?

That's very cool info.

Thanks so much for this. I'll just say this one more time, since it seems to be lost in the noise. Anyone can disagree with me about anything - doesnt make you dumb, not in my eyes. This wasnt about disagreeing. It was about a years long pattern of personal attacks and slights. And they built up and built up, and i asked him to stop, and then i warned him to stop, and then i escalated until someone had to say something to both of us so that he would stop. I realize none of the rest of you saw it. i get that. But i promise you, if you went thru it, youd find your limit and finally say something too. But no, it has nothing to do with disagreeing about Justin Fields or anything like that - it only has to do with being disrespectful and personal. And like i said, for the first hundred times, i didnt even say anything. And then i think he got emboldened, and wanted to see how far he could push me. The other day, I was sending a PM to someone and I saw another PM message about him and his slights from 2020 - so it went on for at least 3 years, and you know you didnt hear anything about it from me for at least 3 years. This wasnt a quick reaction. Of course I have my ideas about Justin and all that, we all do, but that had zero to do with this. And for example, I'm not getting pissed off about this killa, you havent been poking me hundreds of times for years - this is just natural give and take, and that's all good. I hope people understand, but if they dont its OK, I just wasnt gonna sit around and take it anymore, and neither would anyone else here.

Ill tell ya what. Ill stop posting about the Bears here, and just post about your sex tourist molester ass. How about that you piece of shit? Does everyone really want to read all this every day all the time? How about for THREE YEARS? At what point would ANY of you have had enough? Maybe Ill be booted, or maybe someone will tell you to just stop. I wonder you little pussy. Someone somewhere needs to kick your ass.

F*ck you

God DAMN youre an idiot. Is there not a single one of you to tell this guy to stop?

again your lack of reading comprehension is astounding. I am not mad about something that happened three years ago - I am sick of your little digs that have been constant for over three years. They are unacceptable. I had hoped by underlining them so hard youd be shamed into stopping. But no, youre too stupid to even know when youve gone too far. Also in the category of how f*cking stupid you are - I have never been offended when anyone ever disagreed with an opinion of mine. They are opinions. Everyone has them - this is not a new concept to me, again especially having worked in a creative job for decades, its ALL opinions. Obviously. I am not upset if someone disagrees with me about whether to keep Fields or not. That's ridiculous. But there are facts as we go. The plays I diagrammed for example. In those plays Fields didnt make his read. Thats not an opinion. But again, even if you think facts arent facts, thats just your stupidity. It doesnt provoke a reaction. What I am done with is the fighting. The personal little asides. Your continued fighty attitude. I have had enough of it. I told you , then i warned you. Each time you doubled down, so then I went after you in hopes that finally other might say "OK you two settle down" and then the next time you did it, people other than me would tell you to stop. Instead, people want to f*ck with me now. Fine. Like i said, Im done. I only came back here so no one was mistaken thinking I am mad about some single slight from three years ago. Its not a single slight, its literally hundreds of them. Unacceptable, and like i said, Im gone.

you can be pro or anti Fields and still understand that 81% positive also means 19% negative in a class. And you know this. So youre trolling me. You also know (I HOPE) that 81% refers to the #1 pick QBs ONLY, and not #11. I have been debating whether higher picks generally net better players for over a week here now. It's CRAZY. I dont even really believe most people think that they're just trolling. I mean what's next? That heavy things are easier to carry than light ones? Where the hell am I? It's either the dumbest people in the world, or it's trolling. So Im left with what? Im dumb because people can fool me by pretending to be dumb (trolling) in between times they are actually dumb? And Im supposed to what? react with politeness like its not dumb and explain it again? so Im dumb because i dont want to call it out as trolling, and instead give the benefit of the doubt? or prove that Im not dumb by being rude and calling it dumb trolling? and then Im the fighty guy - which is something people would like to think of me right now because i finally had enough from Stinger whos been a little bitch to me for literally years? I found a private message between me and another member from 2020 discussing his tone with me. This was back when I WASNT responding to it, and being polite and just letting go. I did that for a long long time, as any confident adult would. But Im telling you no one on this board would put up with what hes done, and I realize none of you noticed it or saw it, so you think Im just overreacting now. So whats left? Fight and prove Im a dick? Dont fight and cower for acceptance? All thats left if I want to keep my self respect is to check out, and I hate that because I have loved the discussions here, but Im not loving them anymore. I cant believe it is a debate about higher picks being more likely to net successful players. If you actually think thats wrong youre a moron of epic proportions, and if you dont think that and just want to prove that you can make me respond politely and try to explain it AGAIN as some sort of evidence Im dumb and easy to fool, then youre just abusing my respect. So, i think Im done for a while. Not because Im mad, but because its unpleasant, and I dont WANT to fight. Its hard enough to simply debate the realities here. But this is just stupid. Stinger is still a giant dick. The rest of this is just juvenile and Im not even trying to push back because thats not who I am, despite what you saw when I gave Stinger what he deserved. But if your instinct, when you see someone finally push back against a bully, is to jump on them and try to tease them yourself, then you must think Im weak and want your turn. And If Im not weak at all, and youve fully miscalculated me and my personality, then I have two choices. Fight with you too, which I simply wont do, because I am an adult man who can actually control himself, despite your wrong interpretation of my response to Stinger, or i can withdraw. So, Im out, at least for several weeks. Well see if i can find another board thats less fighty. Probably not on the internet. Thats why I used to like this place. But whatever the outcome, Im sure as hell not gonna stick around with people who are disrespectful. I'll add this. Im 58 years old. Ive raised happy confident successful children, I had an extremely successful creative career at the highest tiers of the music business in NYC. It was ridiculously competitive, and I ran up against more than a few lawyers for giant media conglomerates and mafia figures in my time. I managed to hold my own and get paid by them, even when they wanted to BS me. None of them, no matter how threatening or combative they were ever disrespected me like that. They knew who I was as a man. And in the end I got paid. Why Id hang around here, no matter how much Ive enjoyed it, and sell all that out makes no sense to me at all. So Im out, and Im sure as f*ck not gonna explain how first round players are better than 3rd round players on average again. i dont even know why I would ever speak to anyone who was that stupid. And when they say "well thats your opinion" and try to make it as if Im so arrogant that I think my opinions are facts - I cant even begin to know how to respond to that. 2 + 2 = 4. If you dont get that, thats on you. And that doesnt make me arrogant. If anyone with half a brain reads what I wrote, theyd see I am always leaving caveats for my opinion, and that I could be wrong and cant predict the future. And if youre offended that I said half a brain, but you still cant tell the difference, than Im sorry if you feel I have revealed some level of your stupidity, but it aint my fault if someone is dumb and cant figure out the difference. But youre not dumb, you know the difference, you're just poking at me. In fact you know my character too since I private messaged you to make sure you knew i wasnt talking about YOU when in one exchange you werent sure. That was me showing you respect. Remember? And sticking around to battle that out sounds like no fun at all. The timing of this was really poor on your part. So i dunno when Ill be back, but my advice to the rest of you is to try to respect each other more here - cuz thats what made this place so great. And to Stinger, you're an assh*le for causing all of this. After all these years, I dont think you have any idea how much I'd love to show you who youve been taunting. I swear, in person, energy to energy, you'd never say any of it. You have no idea how many CEOs, stars and powerbrokers I have interfaced with, or the mutual respect that our energies found. They knew my implicit "rank" - they let me lead them. Not in contention but in TRUST. Im not saying that makes my opinions about the Bears any more worthy than anyone else's - but it does mean Stinger wouldnt have spoken to my face like that. Never in a million years. Hed know his place just by the energy. Like when two successful confident men meet - they never pull that crap on each other. And if the rest of you didnt like how I handled him, and want your turn to shut me up, well, youre not gonna get it. Because that holds no interest whatsoever for me. Id rather respect you all and debate like men who respect each other. And if thats not on the table anymore, then there is nothing left for me here. And I admit I am very sad about it. But not enough to play submissive bitch games.

Ok, i get it. Whatever, I wont bother posting here for a while. I dunno why everyone is being such an asshole, but whatever you need to do. Too bad too, because I have really enjoyed this place in the past.

This place is a hall of mirrors. I cant keep repeating. I agree with what DABEARS wrote above. I have said the same 5 things at least a billion times already. if you're trolling, I'm too polite to assume that. If you're really not sure, then I dont mean to be insulting by suggesting you're trolling. This board used to be fun.

Totally. I may change my mind as I do research in February etc, but right now, Williams does not look like the answer to me either.

Well I almost always agree. I always prefer watching film to parsing stats, Often the stats are misleading, especially out of context. In this case Im just saying that the higher the draft pick, the better the chance that the player will be good. And that's self evident like I said. The 30 year Harvard study from 2011 said this: 81% of #1 pick QBs are elite 39% of first round QB picks are elite 22% of first round QB picks are middle 39% of first round QB picks are busts 21% of second round QB picks are elite 6% of third round QB picks are elite Of the list Adam compiled of the best 16 (was it 18?) or so QBs in the league right now, 75% were top 10 draft picks. So we know there is risk in any pick, but we also know clearly that the higher the pick, the lesser the risk. You cannot use stats alone to predict a player or to even understand their performances out of context. But you CAN use stats to talk about commodities like draft picks, which are not individual examples, which can be outliers to any statistic, but instead a collection of picks over many years. And the point about gym class, was that each person picking players always picks the players they think are best. The more people (who have their own ideas of who will be good) pick, the fewer likely hidden gems there will be. Yes, there are hidden gems, but no you cannot look for them on purpose, because you dont know they will be outliers. If you did, you would have already picked them earlier. If for example anyone thought Brady would be who he turned out to be, even if EVERY OTHER team missed it, then that team would have taken him in the first round! ANyone would! So the fact that you can sometimes find a hidden gem BY ACCIDENT is no STRATEGY for finding quality starters at the QB position. That's all facts - no opinion included.

I totally see your point. Right now Im assuming (on nothing) that there is more than one QB option, and Im also not even sure that I like Caleb Williams as my #1. So if youre right, and there's only one great one, and the rest grade out average, and you dont hvae the pick to get that player, that does definitely screw the whole plan up. And then I dunno what you do. Youd have to have a name for next year that youre already excited about. And it doesnt make Fields any better either. But if you believe in at least one QB that you have the pick to take, then I think it's a no brainer to cut Eberflus and Fields loose. I still think Im gonna like more than Williams, but I dunno anything about that yet for sure.

Boo!!! Me too. Go Bill! Thankfully Aaron Rodgers announced that he isnt going to return this year, so that should help too.

Absolutely. You always want to be developing the QB position, and others too. In this case, with Bagent on the team, I think we can skip that for this year at least. He's about the best you can hope for in a later round QB pick, and he has tons of upside that we havent seen yet. he is the perfect developmental backup QB right now.

This is all correct. And it isn't an opinion - it's what GMs have done consistently. When they took Brady, they werent looking for a GOAT, they had Bledsoe. Sometimes GMs get lucky, but it's not like it was their STRATEGY to find the goat in the 6th round. We might get struck by lighting, or win the lottery, but for most of us that will never happen. Facts. And thank you for posting it! The opinion comes into it when you ask for an eval on Justin. Some think he's great. Cool. I totally disagree, but if Poles thinks that, then he shouldnt draft a QB #1. That's where the opinion comes in. But the rest of this draft a difference maker in the 4th round is nonsense. It just is. The fundamental misunderstanding in the argument "a lot of first round QBs bust" as a reason to take one later is just insane. The stats are clear. 81% of first pick QBs become elite. 39% of first round QBs become elite - top 10 even better, and another 22% of first rounders are decent. This is all according to the Harvard 30 year study Ive linked here a few times, including their definition of "elite" - it's arbitrary, but it's a set threshold to measure by, and it's the same threshold for every player evaluated, so it does provide a relative score that all play under equally whether you like the word they use for it or not. It's a loaded word, but it's a mathematical outcome no matter what word we might prefer to use as a descriptor for their methodology. Adam also made the list of good QBs in the league right now. 75% of them were TOP TEN picks. These are facts, and they are self evident. The best athlete in gym class isn't the guy taken last. Everyone knows it. It's crazy that we even debate it. Yes, 19% of #1 pick QBs aren't elite. 39% of the rest of the round are busts. And that includes the whole first round it's better at the top of course. But 80% of second round QBs arent elite. Is that better? No its 400% worse than the #1 pick! That's math! The argument for taking a franchise QB later is basically saying "theres no sure thing in the first round, so Ill dramatically increase my risk of failing to address that smaller risk in the first round." WHAT?!? The argument that Fields is awesome is one I disagree with, but thats opinion. It isnt the same kind of WRONG as this STRATEGY to pick a franchise QB in a later round. It truly boggles my mind. Other than thinking Fields is the man, the other reason to wait to take a starting QB until later rounds is to make the online draft games more fun. You can get a lot if you dont spend that first pick on a QB. And that's really fun. I like Madden too. In fact, depending on how I end up grading out the rookie QBs, I might be cool with trading down the #1, or taking MHJr, and getting the QB with our second first rounder. All that depending on where we finish, and what I think of the QBs after I study them. But to me Justin is NOT the man. He doesnt make the reads in time. He does everything at a high level except the core job of being a QB. And I dont think you can ignore that, or win big games with that, so I'm definitely trading Fields, and taking a QB in the top 10 or 15 picks of the 2024 draft. This aint a movie, and no heroes ending to the season is gonna change the tape we now have on the guy. it is what it is. Fans can and will ignore it, but I think if you watch the film looking for reality and not a narrative, you gotta come to the same conclusion. It's there every week. I think Poles fires Eberflus and trades Fields this year. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll make it past next season as GM, and we will all be miserable next year watching the rest of the team develop and lose games because our video game QB cant make the throws the way they're drawn up. There will be lots of highlights, but no playoff wins.

wait for the QB hype machine to roll around in February lol If Poles can identify that and they actually fall there, then he is a hell of a Poker player. Id be scared theyd go too fast. When we see draft predictions in February etc, then we might have a better idea of what the common wisdom is anyway. Any one team might jump in early on someone too, but if we can hold our QB powder until then and still get one of those guys, that would be great - assuming we think that guys gonna be good, all the scouting and combine yet to be done etc

hahahaha

says the guy that got, what, SEVEN of them? LOL

I didnt realize that. That's good news.