BearFan PHX

Youre right, and every QB needs to make a huge incremental step up into the NFL. Predicting how that will go is why this is so hard to do. No one is ready for the NFL coming out of college. The first day of training camp is the first time they've seen NFL defenses and their speed, and how small the new passing windows are. As far as whether Williams had those skills you listed in college, the proof is already in hours of tape. The Bears and everyone else already know he can do all those things at the college level. He is as impressive a prospect as there is. What's left is character. Not just if they are troubled, but how competitive they are and how they will handle the transition and stress in the NFL. For example, one worry might be - since Caleb was so good in college, how does his ego react to not being up to NFL quality initially. Does his ego tell him he is and shut down, or does his competitive fire burn hotter to study and get better. I think it strongly looks like the latter, which is great, but this is where the uncertainty still lies, his on the field skill is already off the charts on the tape.

the Dad thing is old, but the not throwing is new. Then again, it's not uncommon for top rated Qbs to only throw at their pro days, there's nothing to gain, and some possibility to lose. Maye and Daniels aren't throwing this year either. Last year Bryce Young didn't throw at the combine - I think it's common for top rated guys not to.

right - the Eagles may have wanted Carter and helped stoke the character issue fire, but that doesnt mean that Poles got duped either. I agree he made the right decision.

if Caleb is a weirdo in some way, that either works for or against him. The obvious against is that he would play a victim role if negativity comes along, and become more activist than player. But that doesnt seem like his personality at all. Look at the other side - let's say hypothetically (NOT saying this is true at ALL!) that Caleb is a really weird fetish guy. There is some chance that he wants to prove to the world that the greatest QB who ever lives ALSO happened to like to dress up like a nurse and wrestle in jello. You could imagine that could motivate him even more in a Jackie Robinson kind of way. I couldn't stand Colin Kaepernick, but I LOVE Dennis Rodman. Now I think the nails thing is just because his mom is a nail tech, and doesn't even mean he is a weirdo at all. I think it's a giant nothingburger, but if my investigators told me there was more to it, it wouldn't be a positive or a negative inherently, it would just go back to the original most important question you ask any QB - what is your character, how competitive are you, are you a leader, is winning so important to you that it's almost unhealthy? If you get the right answer to those questions, it doesnt matter what the THING is, even if there is no thing at all, you still need the right answer to those questions. They and talent are literally all that matter for any QB.

some of these "Red Flags" are recycled things from months ago. Remember that we are in pre draft smokescreen land. Any negative piece on Caleb has the effect of getting lots of clicks AND you can imagine there are some other teams wanting to muddy the waters on Caleb hoping to maybe shake him free from Chicago. That may sound paranoid, but understand these teams hire private investigators and teams of researchers to find out everything about all of these kids. If you connect your franchise to a top QB prospect, and he grows into his potential, you are talking about eventually giving a guy like over a quarter of a billion dollars. They look under every rock, and they use disinformation and counterintelligence operations like any business worth billions of dollars would on their primary investment and product. Somewhere there are PR agents working for the Commanders and other teams, trying to prime the pump for reporters, feeding them scraps of negative information, hoping to goad that reporter into doing something that will make that reporter money by writing negative pieces on Caleb. It's not that hard of a sell.

you may well be right. he looks good from every angle. THe more I hear about and from him, the more convicned I am that he's the right move. But I cant help feeling some nagging feeling that somethings wrong, but I dont know where it's coming from. I have NOTHING to base it on. I dont care about the nails, in fact if he is different in some way, that could work as a chip on his shoulder and extra motivation if that's his character. I think the crying in his moms arms is a positive. Everything I see on tape looks incredible. The more i watch the more I think the common narratives about him are wrong. He plays in structure all the time. He makes fast decisive reads when they are there. His throwing motion is insanely fast and compact, like Marino. On the field, he is a rare specimen. His dad is being weird, but I don't even care about that. I like that he and they are competitive and want to milk the NFL for every penny they can get. I think he wants to win a lot of games. I think he wants to be the hero. You gotta love all that. So why do I have this weird feeling? Am I just scared something is too good to be true? Every other new Bears QB was a reach or they fell, and so I thought "wow we went up to grab Trubisky, or wow Justin fell to us!" this time you get your pick. Theyre all available to us. Maybe I'm just spooked by that. i dunno. But the more I research him, the more I try to disprove him watching film, the more he wins me over. It's possible that we are looking at the moment when everything changed for the Bears. This might be the next GOAT. It's exciting, and having had my Bears heart broken so many times before, maybe I'm just scared to believe. But even that is fading the more film I watch. Lets go. *also I havent seen enough film on Daniels, Maye and a couple others yet to be sure that one of them isn't even mightier, but Im not expecting that. Williams looks really really good.

yes, it does seem to be more his father than Caleb himself. But there were rumors flying around in November that Caleb didnt want to go to the Bears and that his father was seeking an ownership stake in whatever team drafted him. Thankfully neither is true, and Caleb does seem to be a good young man with his head on straight in his interviews. Ive still got lots of film to watch, but the more i watch on him, the more impressed I am with him.

that was an EXAMPLE of how to use the archive.is for ANY link. That wasnt a real link. It was directions for ANY link. "youcantreadthis" isnt a website, its a placeholder? Here is the real link to that article - nothing in it is new, thankfully its all rehashed from several months ago. https://archive.is/CfiZZ

heres a cool trick for articles on sites that you or we dont subscribe to. if the URL is (for example, this is not a real URL) http://www.youcantreadthis.com then add "archive.is/" after the "http://" and before the "www" so the new link would be http://archive.is/www.youcantreadthis.com and then you can read it without paying.

offenses would be sweating our sweaty duo.

finally! those cheesheads have NO idea how lucky they were to have those QBs, and how bad they choked not winning or going to more SBs with them. Brady and Mahomes were AFC too, so they should have been able to at least get there...

amen

there must be a way to make your point without being so argumentative in tone. I've never seen adam say a harsh word to anyone.

I feel like Brady nailed this. It's been a real problem for the Bears from Nagy through Getsy. Fields fans will appreciate this, and so will Fields detractors. It really fits the truth of our situation in Chicago, and shines a light on what is missing. It indicts the coaches and QBs both.

I don't think McCarthy has the physical traits the others have, but he only lost one game in college. The kid is a winner. Someone will take him and find out what he can do.

It's early for me to be sure what I think, but Maye may be the best QB in this draft. To get the best QB and pick up some extra picks would not suck.

Im still doing my homework, but maye looks pretty impressive, and some say he's the best of the crop. If he's evaluated as even as a prospect (different style but even) to Williams, then hell yeah take the picks and draft Maye. I just dont know what I really think about either of them yet.

I haven't done deep enough player evaluations to have an opinion on that, Im just saying generically, that LOT is a premium position, and if the draft falls in such a way that an excellent player at LOT is available, and that player grades out better than the players available at other positions, that having Braxton jones shouldnt prevent us from taking the player. Ditto at DE. If players of equal value are available, then you consider need. And i think part ot the issue is around words like "hole" or "need" so I think there are three tiers. 1) you have a premium player on the roster under long term contract = you dont draft another one. We all agree on that. 2) you have a gaping hole or need in the roster and an excellent prospect is available when you pick = you take them. We all agree on that too. 3) you have a decent player at that position, and an excellent prospect is available who grades more highly than any other available prospect and the player is at a premium position = you might still draft Braxton Jones' replacement (for example). I wont be shocked if the #9 pick goes to WR, TE or DE at all. but it might go to LOT if the right guy is there, and others arent. I dont think thats an immediate trade down. BUT if you have identified JPJ as a premium player, and you would take him at #9 if trade downs didnt exist, then yeah, sure, trade down to 15 or 20 and grab him. It'd be foolish not to get extra value if you could of course!

that is extremely clear, and it's what makes a winner too.

without addressing whether Poles keeps Justin or drafts a QB with a top pick, I think this approach is closer to what Poles should be doing. Having more players is not as preferable as having great players. We've been stuck with a limited roster for SO long that we are used to the idea of quantity over quality, but of course those players never achieve greatness and then youre stuck repeating yourself forever. When you take players, in free agency, trade and the draft who will be great, then your roster starts to fill. As that happens, you have fewer and fewer holes and then you're almost in trade UP territory. Of course players age out and you lose them to other teams as they want big paydays, so you never quite get to trading up, but the next equivalent is trading players away when they have one year left before their big deals. That keeps the draft pump primed, and allows you to continue the cycle of drafting talent rather than need in the top few rounds. So I agree with this way of thinking, even though I want a top rookie QB this year too.

so I agree in that hes not gonna draft a linebacker high. When a position is filled with a great player who is on a large long term contract, youre right that it would be nuts to draft talent at that position high. But, when you look at a guy like Braxton Jones, it's not a need, but neither is it a great player on a large long term contract. So what to call that? Not need, but still a key position you can draft if the right player falls and that's the BPA pick. Im not saying he'd choose an OT over a great WR or anything, certainly when players are evenly rated and both available, need plays a role. And also, the importance of the position does too. We NEED a center, and JPJ is a great prospect, but we wont likely draft him with pick #9 because center is not a key position the way left offensive tackle is. But if you reach to fill holes, thats how you squander draft value and end up with a subpar roster. Im guessing you agree with all of this, and it's about the word "need" more than anything else? Anyway this is why GMs usually sign free agents before the draft to fill "needs" not necessarily with the best players, and not necessarily on long term deals, but so that dont have to reach if the draft falls one way or another.

yeah, insane for sure.

sure, but as DABEARS just said so well, most years a QB like that isnt even available. And on the rare years one is, any given team likely doesnt have the pick to take them. But football IS the #1 team sport for sure. I just think there are lots of ways to build rosters, and only very rare chances to get a top 2 (in the league not the draft!) QB. Are any of those guys this year that guy? No one knows, but at best the scouts may be telling you that there is a decent chance Williams (or whoever) IS that guy, and a lottery ticket with even a 50% chance on a guy like that is worth buying at pretty much any cost. Especially when the cost doesnt come from your future, but just in missed opportunites for extra draft picks?

Oh for sure, most years there is no top 2 in the league QB in the draft! I just mean if Caleb Williams (or whoever) is that guy, and your scouts are SURE, theres still a 33% chance they will bust. But yes, most years there is not, I should have been clearer. But I also think unless you have one of those QBs, you arent realistically competing for a super bowl victory, so when (if) one comes along, and youre sold thats who he is likely to be, you gotta reach for it. And Im not even saying I think Caleb or anyone is that guy either. In a couple months I'll have my guess, but I dont even know what I think right now about any of them.

I think that a true top 2 in the league QB is worth whatever it takes. If I knew that Williams or Maye was one of those guys, I would easily walk away from the trade, or any trade unless it included a top 2 QB. Your point about now knowing is fair, but without a top 2 QB, youre not reliably and consistently going to the super bowl or winning it. So there is tremendous value in a 66% chance lottery ticket on a top 2 QB. You can build your team out all you like, but without one of those top QBs, youre just a playoff team, but not really in the hunt. So you cant win it all without one, or getting some stupid luck along the way, and you cant count on that, or repeat it. To me, as large a haul as that is, if you assume you need one of those QBs at any price, there are two reasons to trade the #1. 1) You dont think Williams or any rookie QB is a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB 2) You think more than one QB in this draft has a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB. and possibly 3) You think someone other than Williams is the one with the 66% chance to be a top 2 QB AND youre sure the team picking at #1 doesnt think the same. And that's a real gamble. But I dont believe in the plan of building a team around a lesser QB as a plan to consistently get to and win superbowls. Seven of the last ten superbowls were won by Mahomes or Brady. And one more by Peyton Manning. The two years a non top QB won the superbowl, only one beat one of the top QBs (Eagles beat Patriots) I think you can get lucky or unlucky in the league. Brady and Mahomes went/go to the superbowl consistently but not every year. If you build a team around a lesser QB, you might get lucky one year and miss having to face Mahomes. But that's not a plan. And honestly, thats less likely than that a QB you believe in and draft ends up a bust. It's much more likely that your super team with a lesser QB doesnt ever get you there and win it.