BearFan PHX

Eh you guys are just being stupid. Youre caught on one side of an argument and you cant back off the territory you staked out. You got into it because youre defending Eberflus which is FINE. That's an opinion. Dick Vermeil was a bad coach who became a good coach. There is a list a mile long of bad coaches who stayed bad. Youre right its not 95/5 that would be WAAAAAYYYYY too high. It's more like 99.99/ 0.01 - almost all bad players and coaches stay bad. And you all know it. NOW, if you can actually listen and get past your egos, there are PLENTY of good arguments for keeping Eberflus. So Im not saying youre dumb for wanting that. YOURE NOT. That's just a simple difference of opinion. But if youre gonna seriously pick this hill to die on - that Vermeil did it so it's POSSIBLE, and that anything thats POSSIBLE is worth doing, then what about all the other coaches? They could POSSIBLY win a Super Bowl for us too. Maybe we should hire Matt Nagy or Mark Trestman. They were bad, so Vermeil means they could be good in the future! Hooray! That's just is not a logical argument. If 3 of you or 5 of you or all of you insist that the earth is flat, youre not gonna get me to agree. because its WRONG. Its not an opinion. Its just wrong. Saying you want to keep Eberflus for all the reasons that you wrote before Pix is FINE. It's not dumb at ALL. Keeping Eberflus is an opinion. Saying Vermeil predicts his future is DUMB and WRONG. Saying that anything that's possible is a good strategy is WRONG. It's actually shocking that you'd say it with a straight face. But now youve picked a side and cant admit youre wrong, and the silliness starts.

I think that's a really true statement. Whether about Harbaugh or whatever, they surely will disagree about something, and they do project a united front to the outside world for sure. I'll say this too: If Waldron is allowed to run the offense, and we get Caleb Williams, I do believe this team can do well. I still think Harbaugh would have been a MUCH better choice, and is a real missed opportunity. Poles has done well building the roster and playing the draft game so far. I keep saying that. But my concern is whether he will have the character to get rid of people when better alternatives come along. I think he may be too loyal. If he keeps Fields, that will be the final straw for me, and I'll know which way we are headed. If he trades Fields, and takes another QB, I will go along for the ride and see how Eberflus is. But even if he does well, I would bet that the Chargers win a Super Bowl before the Bears do. And that will be because we kept Eberflus, and didn't get Harbaugh. Loyalty and fandom aside, if you were Bears GM and you could choose between Eberflus and Harbaugh, how many here would actually choose Eberflus?

right, so the first point is: does it prove it's LIKELY or just POSSIBLE. That something is possible doesnt mean it is likely. We can all find many more examples of coaches and players who were bad and stayed bad. So it is a logical fallacy to say one predicts the other? That's what's inane. It is possible Trubisky will be a better QB next year. Other QBs have gotten better after being bad. Is that a reason to sign Trubisky, just because it is possible? Of course not. Youd want some reason why it was likely hed be better. Saying you have some indication Trubisky is going to grow is a fine opinion. Saying it's because another QB grew isnt a logical argument. My beef is with the argument, not the conclusion. Again, if I say "Cows are blue, so I think it's a good idea to keep Eberflus" and someone says "Cows arent blue, thats dumb" that doesnt mean they are saying that keeping Eberflus is dumb. It means that promoting that reason as WHY is dumb. When I say "Fields is bad because hasnt done well in the passing game" and someone else says "thats because he hasnt had protection" are they disrespecting me or my opinion? Of course not. They are arguing with whether my assertion is true, that he is bad BECAUSE of his passing stats. And they are saying those STATS arent a predictor because of OTHER factors. It's normal, it's how debates work. Dick Vermeil does not predict Matt Eberflus, and you need more than the idea that something is POSSIBLE to argue for doing it, you need to support the position that it is LIKELY. That is why it is a logical fallacy, and as repeated so many times, inane. If people cant win their points with logical arguments and have to resort to pretending to be offended, thats silly and weak.

It's not in the mainstream press, but I am a Patreon follower of a guy who has a YouTube channel. He often has Bears beat reporters like Adam Rank and Courtney Cronin on his show, and he has been on Adam Ranks show too, he also has current and former players on his show. He does excellent tape breakdown too. I've followed him for quite a while, and he doesnt usually do breaking news type stuff, and he hasnt been wrong about anything hes reported in the last few years Ive been watching him. He's never been a click baiter that I have seen, and hes not a narrative guy - he gives even handed analysis and says both good and bad things about whoever he is discussing. He says he had two separate sources inside Halas Hall that told him that Warren disagreed strongly with Poles about keeping Eberflus and that is got "heated" between them, and McCaskey and Poles overruled him. There was nothing specific about Warren and Harbaugh in the report. He also said he couldnt reveal his sources. We do know that Warren is angry about leaks, and that was part of Cliff Steins firing. People can dismiss it if they like, but personally I bet it's true. Like I said, he is not known for sensational stories or inside info or anything like that, and he let it slip inside a discussion, it wasnt the headline or anything, so it wasnt clickbait, because no one would have seen it unless they were already reading his article which didnt say anything about it in the headline. He kind of let it slip as evidence that he thought Eberflus was coming back (this was before the announcement).

I hope so because if it isn't a ridiculously high number, then Im gonna be even more mad that we didnt snag him.

Reports say that Warren was heated with Poles about Poles keeping Eberflus. If those reports are true then maybe Warren wanted Harbaugh? I agree that if we offered Harbaugh the job he would have seriously considered it.

For the record, again, I did not call anyones opinion inane or insane. I simply said that arguing that because Dick Vermeil was bad then good means that Eberflus who has been bad must then then be good is inane. If you like Eberflus that fine. I respect and disagree with it. Especially given other options like Harbaugh. But if you say "cows are usually blue so therefore Eberflus will be good" THAT would be inane. Not the Eberflus will be good part, the cows are blue part. Is literally no one understanding my point? And choosing instead to misunderstand me as being disrespectful to people's opinions? I am calling the logical argument if A then B inane, not the opinion it supports.

OK. We really suck. Jim Harbaugh was actually available and we didn't persue him. We didn't even try. Wow. This IS a clown show. Whatever you think about Eberflus you can't tell me Harbaugh wouldn't be better. Is this who Kevin Warren wanted when he supposedly argued with Poles? Did Poles not want to give up on his hug friend? This is such a giant error. How many years will we need to wait until we can fire Poles? I'm telling you right now, you may think I'm crazy right now, but you will all eventually wish we had Harbaugh instead of Eberflus. Every one of us will eventually know this no matter what you think now. And we can fire Eberflus, but Harbaugh is gone forever to us. And yes, if you can't tell this is my opinion. I can see it now. Harbaugh is winning, we're mired in mud, and the discussion here will be "Well if Eberflus had the Chargers roster and Justin Herbert..." Clown show.

no I have never said that anyones opinion doesnt count. You just never understand anything i say on here. Opinions are awesome. No one knows the future. Ive said that about a million times. Bad logical arguments like Dick Vermiel was bad then good, so Eberflus will be too are inane. Not because they support or reject Eberflus, just because they are illogical. For example, I wanted Eberflus fired. OK. If I say "he made bad decisions and lost games" thats a logical argument for firing him. But if I say "We kept Nagy a year too long and that didn't work out, so it cant possibly work out for Eberflus either" THAT would be inane. Can you understand the subtlety of the difference between rejecting someones opinion, and saying some particular argument or evidence is illogical regardless of which outcome it supports?! It's like all you hear is "Eberflus good / Eberflus bad" and no attention at all to the various facts, arguments, reasoning etc. "Mitch Trubisky was bad and didnt get better so we should definitely trade Fields" - does that make any sense? No right? Because it's anti Fields you can see that the logic is faulty. Well its just as faulty to say that Dick Vermeil means anything about Eberflus. And you gotta admit it is POSSIBLE that Fields will be much better next year, just as it is POSSIBLE that Trubisky will be better next year. But that's not a reason to go sign Trubisky. Now if the reasons are that you like some aspect of Fields' game, or his leadership or whatever those are VALID arguments. I dont agree with them, but they are not illogical. That's about balancing various true things about Fields good and bad to come to a decision. Is that getting through at ALL? No one needs to agree with my opinion, no one needs my approval for anything. You're just not understanding what Im saying at ALL. If you say "2+2=5, therefore we should keep Fields" thats not an opinion, it's a logical fallacy that supports an opinion, and while I only disagree with you opinion, that reasoning is whats WRONG. And not because Im arrogant or know better about the future than anyone or that my opinions are fact and everyone elses are trash. That's totally misunderstanding me - it's just that 2+2 does not equal 5. So you can't use it as evidence in supporting your opinion - even as you have every right to your opinion and Ive never said otherwise. The argument that is repeated a million times a day by Grizz that is illogical is "some player or coach used to be bad then became good so it is LIKELY that Eberflus or Fields will be good" The argument that you repeat a million times a day that makes no sense is "Poles isnt listening to us, so our opinions mean nothing" because no one thinks Poles is reading this, and we give our opinions and debate stuff here because its fun and we learn from each other. I am not, and never have been, the guy you misunderstand me to be. I have said a million times: Everyone has a right to their opinion Fields has a lot of athletic and leadership skills No one can predict the future, and Fields might become a good QB, I just doubt it will happen based on previous performance No one can predict the future and Eberflus might become a good HC, I just doubt it will happen based on previous performance So if you still read everything to say that Im disrespecting peoples opinions, and being arrogant about thinking I know the future, then reread what I just wrote above, and if you still cant get past it, then maybe youre the one not respecting people who disagree with you, and not me.

So while I disagree with all or most of this, everything you said are all still valid opinions and arguments. What is inane is offering as evidence that some bad players and coaches became good later, so it is likely that these players and coaches will too. Now you may well disagree that either or both are bad in the first place, and that is also a valid opinion. The only thing that's inane here is the argument that "some bad players got better, so therefore most or all bad players will get better." in other words giving evidence of some coach or player who was good after being bad. It only proves it's POSSIBLE, but not that it's LIKELY. Disagreeing with me about Fields or Eberflus is not inane. I think you're wrong, but thats just MY opinion too, but either way, youre not saying "2+2=5, so we should keep Fields" instead youre saying "I see talent, and he didnt have great protection or WRs, so Id give him another shot" and thats FINE, and not inane at all. It's just that particular argument that keeps getting repeated here that is inane. Not anyones guess at Fields or Eberflus' future. No one can predict the future, all we have are these opinions. Thats all cool. I was just saying the argument that is someone is bad then they WILL LIKELY be good later is inane, and if the point is only to prove that its POSSIBLE, then i think you need more than that to justify keeping either of them. And as a great example, you gave a bunch of reasons why you believe what you do above. And that's all cool. You didnt say it was because Dick Vermeil did it, that means Eberflus WILL. And if it just meant that he MIGHT, well anything is POSSIBLE and that's not a reason either. Dick Vermeil is not Matt Eberflus, and bad coaches mostly stay bad. Only a rare few were bad and then great. Vermeil is not evidence of anything about Eberflus at all. Only that it's POSSIBLE. And I think you need more reasons (like the ones you gave!) to argue that Eberflus will be better and should be kept, than just that it's POSSIBLE he will be better.. What you gave, were actual reasons, and thats fine. Agree or disagree, nothing you wrote was inane.

Now do the percentages. How likely is that? Or is the point just "ya never know" and "anything's possible" - if thats it, why doesnt a NEW QB or coach also get the "ya never know" benefit? I mean they could turn out to be amazing too right? It's also POSSIBLE. The "factual" examples only prove its POSSIBLE (which everyone already knows and agrees) not that its LIKELY. Make a different argument about why you like Eberflus or Fields. Tell us why you think it's LIKELY they will succeed. Otherwise, why not just bring Cutler out of retirement because Kurt Warner? Or just run naked through the neighborhood? Someone might be impressed by it and give you a million dollars. I mean it's POSSIBLE so that means its a good idea right?! It's mind boggling that the difference between possible and likely escapes anyone's understanding.

Here are some hints. Don't argue that because a handful of successful people had bad starts that everyone who has a bad start will be successful. Instead, say what you see of Fields or Eberflus that you like. Tell us WHY you're betting on them. I've been clear this whole time that Justin has strengths. I dont see them overcoming his weaknesses, but it isn't stupid to say you believe in him, or you think the problem was all Getsy etc. Those are arguments. I dont agree with them, and I would still argue against them, but they arent inane arguments. But the ongoing thread of people who were bad and then good is not a good argument at all. It's not predictive. It's like the argument that because Brady was found in the 6th round, you should pick a 6th round QB. Or similar with Brock Purdy. Youd have to take 50+ 6th round QBs to have the likelihood go your way on finding a great QB there. The fact that Brady exists doesnt predict the overwhelming number of QBs in the 6th round who are not good. So it takes more than an argument of "it's POSSIBLE" to support making a strategy. It should include some component of "it's likely" and that doesnt exist in those "once bad now good" arguments. They just dont hold logical water. You like Eberflus or Fields? Fine! It's sportstalk! Just tell us why instead of using arguments that are illogical. The other one I have mostly blocked but still see in quotes is "no ones opinion matters on here Poles is gonna do what he does" well YEAH, everyone knows this. Why have the board? Because it's fun to talk about and think about different scenarios. The "no one knows" argument seems mostly to be deployed to invalidate someone's assertion the person using the "no one knows" argument disagrees with. The irony of course is that "no one knows" also defeats their own argument, and all arguments. Why eve nhave a sportstalk board then? I prefer people come with facts, or even rumors, pro or con, and then we all learn something. And if we dont agree, then it helps us check the math on our own points of view at least?

good point about Dexter. I think we're gonna stay a 4-3, but good thoughts.

funny that having an opinion that isnt yours is absolutism. This is sportstalk - people have opinions. Mine is that Fields will never be great. You also missed the point I was making entirely. That you identify people who have been bad and then good later doesnt take into account all the people who were bad and never got good. You cant possibly be arguing that anyone who is bad will then be good. All youre saying is "you never know" and that is a ridiculous way to make decisions. Also, I dont need to be int he room with Poles to criticize the argument YOU keep making. What does Poles even have to do with that? Let's sign Trubisky to be our QB, because Geno Smith had a resurgence, and hey ya never know. Let's bring back Getsy because other OCs have done better in their second stint, because hey ya never know. It's inane.

A few things. First off Breer spoke directly to several of the OC candidates, so it's likely that the info came from them. Also Breer's personal prediction about Eberflus is different than his reporting on what key people have told him first hand. Secondly, the word defend has a lot of meanings. I took it to mean that he said good things about Fields. That doesnt mean that they are keeping Fields, in fact i said in my original post about this that it could be a pre trade/draft/free agency smokescreen. So nothing can be "known" The rest of what i said was *IF* they keep Fields. And if they do then i stand by everything I said. But even just keeping Eberflus, they are already getting out the big shoes and red noses, even if they havent fully applied the white facepaint and mutlicolored curly wig yet. The earlier you call something, the more people say "noooo you dont know that, that cant be true" - but I said what I said about Poles hugging and wanting to be accepted by the players and coaches before the Eberflus decision. If they get someone other than Fields, Im along for the ride, but if they keep Fields it's just the same damned Bears movie we've been watching since the 90s.

Albert Breer had a bunch of information today. He tells us that: Multiple OC Candidates that the Bears interviewed told him that the chance to coach Caleb Williams was a drawing card for considering the OC position with the Bears for them. AND Matt Eberflus defended Justin Fields in the interviews. Now maybe that's just some smoke going into trade and draft season, but maybe it's a clown show too. I REALLY don't want to be right about this. I don't want to get this rebuild all out of rhythm and miss the chance at a #1 pick QB. Saying i told you so will be a poor prize for getting thrown back into mediocrity for several more years, and watching this roster age out and move on to better free agency deals while we scramble to keep some together. Getting your rookie QB in 2025 if you even CAN get a sniff of the #1 pick, (and who is coming out then?) is gonna require anotheryear of development into 2026 and then youre losing Sweat soon and god dammit why the hell did we keep Eberflus. We had better have a new QB next year. This franchise is the NFLs version of the Washington Generals, and they never beat the Globetrotters. Theyre just there to be a foil for the Packers. Havent we had enough mediocrity?! Oh, and if we keep both, that thing i said about Poles hugging and getting too close to make good decisions about letting "friends" go - is gonna start sounding pretty right. Grrrr

Albert Breer had a bunch of information today. He tells us that: Multiple OC Candidates that the Bears interviewed told him that the chance to coach Caleb Williams was a drawing card for considering the OC position with the Bears for them. AND Matt Eberflus defended Justin Fields in the interviews. Now maybe that's just some smoke going into trade and draft season, but maybe it's a clown show too. I REALLY don't want to be right about this. I don't want to get this rebuild all out of rhythm and miss the chance at a #1 pick QB. Saying i told you so will be a poor prize for getting thrown back into mediocrity for several more years, and watching this roster age out and move on to better free agency deals while we scramble to keep some together. Getting your rookie QB in 2025 if you even CAN get a sniff of the #1 pick, (and who is coming out then?) is gonna require anotheryear of development into 2026 and then youre losing Sweat soon and god dammit why the hell did we keep Eberflus. We had better have a new QB next year. This franchise is the NFLs version of the Washington Generals, and they never beat the Globetrotters. Theyre just there to be a foil for the Packers. Havent we had enough mediocrity?! Oh, and if we keep both, that thing i said about Poles hugging and getting too close to make good decisions about letting "friends" go - is gonna start sounding pretty right. Grrrr (reposting this in the OC thread)

You keep making this argument in many different forms. It goes like this: "Someone who is great was once bad, therefore someone who is bad is likely to be great" It's completely wrong. What percentage of people who were bad became great later? There are some, but being bad is almost certainly an indicator that youre going to keep being bad. All you're proving is that nothing is certain. It'd be like saying "It's possible that if I give all my money away I will impress someone who will bring me better opportunities to recoup my money and more" OK yes. It is possible. Mr Beast did it. Now go throw your money away and see the difference between possibility and probability. Can I say for sure that Eberflus will not be great in the future? of course I cant. But that doesnt mean that he will. Not at all. He made a ton of bad decisions, and is lauded for some pretty vanilla ones on defense that lost us games. Keeping him is a mistake, and if they keep Fields too, it's going to blow up and then everyone is going to be mad as hell for the wasted year and the lost chance at a top QB. I cant just sit around an nod my head about it because "hey ya never know" - it's a foolish way to run a football team.

OK! Now let's get some free agents!

When I was 13 I grew 2 inches that year. I was expecting at that rate to be 12 and a half feet tall by now. If you just graduated high school, were unemployed and then got a job at McDonalds, you might think at that rate of increasing salary, youd be a billionaire by 40. When you are below average it is not unexpected to move up. But to think that moving toward average means you are improving, and therefore will be great someday is a logical fallacy. Especially when the quality of your roster is improving, Eberflus and Fields are not going to win Superbowls for this team. Yes they went from crap to eh. And that was a big improvement. So what? if Eberflus had gone missing and they got another head coach in before preseason this past year, any NFL coach would have gotten at least 7-10. The McDonalds worker hasnt had to compete with an MBA yet. As you get closer to the middle, the law of diminishing returns kicks in. You need to be great to be great. Going from 3-14 to 7-10 is not a show of greatness.

I hear ya. they are leaving the door open to someone else outbidding us. they shouldnt have leaked this.

this is good to hear for sure

Funny Pace was willing to give three firsts for the guy a few years ago lol

Look, youre always going to do your due diligence, and things CAN change, but i bet if Poles had to make his best guess right now about what he was gonna do with the first pick overall and Justin, that it will be exactly what his strategy is going to end up being when he finalizes that strategy. Now could bombshell info come along and change things? of course. Caleb and Justin could both get kidnapped, and then theyd have to do something else. or some awful info could come out to blow it all up. But he already knows, and hes gonna go through the process and prove it, but 95%+ it'll end up being what he thought it would be. Now once he tries to put the strategy in motion, teams may offer more or less, players may become available etc, so all that changes everything too. But the moment before he opens the phone lines, what hes thinking hes gonna do is almost certainly what hes thinking hes gonna do now. It's like this "wait for the last game until you know" stuff. It's just not like that - this isn't a movie. You are who you are, and they are either inclined to take it or leave it.

the stars do seem to be lining up. find me an amazing undervalued center in the 3rd round!