BearFan PHX

What if all the GMs secretly agree with us and Maye and Daniels are off the board 1 and 2 - and trading down damns us to Caleb Williams. This is a real inflection point for the next 10 years of this franchise. I cant predict it - Poles needs to get it right. He needs information, vision and some luck too.

Ugh. Here is what Rappaport said on TV "Specifically, Ian Rapoport said, "I would be surprised as of right now if Matt Eberflus was not back for the Chicago Bears. They've looked much better... They certainly seem to be headed in the right direction... I hear nothing but positive vibes from Chicago."’ So the person who "expects it" that makes it "expected" is Rappaport's own guess, and rosy talk from his insiders, as opposed to say... information. So nothingburger.

yes it is. I have heard that the way this works sometimes (not saying this time) is a GM or agent will tell a guy liek Rappaport a rumor, that may not be true. If he tries to trick Rappaport, then Rappaport will never trust him again, so instead he tells Rappaport its a rumor, and tells him that if he publishes the rumor, he will give him the exclusive when the actual story breaks. And then reporters float the rumor. I can only imagine Eberflus' camp doing this tho. No other benefit I can think of other than blowing smoke to cover for new coach negotiations, and thats such a tenuous benefit, that it'd be really crappy to do to Eberflus, and if word got out, coaches would avoid Poles. So Im guessing this didnt come out of Halas Hall. Now, what if Poles is talking to Eberflus' agent about extrending him so he isnt int he last year of his deal, and can get a good OC and draft a QB high - then maybe the agent knows Flus is likely back. But Poles would be telling the agent this was conditional, and not for sure, or else he weakens his position, and so the agent leaks this, telling Rappaport that Poles is asking around the price, and tries to put public pressure on Poles to make the deal. OR... could be a trial balloon from Halas Hall to test public sentiment OR who the hell knows.

I need a raise for posting around here too. Currently I get $0, and I'm asking for a 300% increase.

for sure. but look at the branches of this decision tree. The main branch is that whether it is true or false. If you take the true branch, then Poles asks "do I want this known?" if yes then just announce it yourself, and everyone is 100% sure. But it is leaked instead. So there are these scenarios: Poles has been loose with the info, Eberflus already knows, and someone leaked. That would be really dumb. IF the person who leaked it DOESNT KNOW, or it is Poles choosing a leak over an announcement, then it is a strategic leak. And could mean anything. Not to necessarily be taken at face value. The video of Flus talking up players comes from the Halas Hall media department though. Why would Poles or Halas Hall want that? Maybe hes keeping Eberflus and wants the announcement not to be a shock, but ease us into it? Could that be it? I just think I still dont know.

If its true there is literally no reason to do it this way. If it's smoke, I could imagine a bunch of scenarios, mostly around cooling off the idea that were going to jump ahead of someone to sign a coach, so they dont beat us to it. It also might be to make people think something to help with draft smoke. But Im not selling any of these, disinfo smoke could mean anything. Maybe he wants to see Eberflus fight the last two weeks for a complete evaluation. All my ideas are dumb. But if you wanted this info out there as solid truth, youd just call a press conference and announce it, so theres some other reason, or its not coming from the decision makers. Rappaport has been wrong before, but he's usually not. Again I say... shit.

But if Poles wanted this out, he could just announce it. it has to be rumor or disinfo smoke. Not saying it isnt true tho.

Ian Rappaport, who is pretty well connected said that Eberflus is "expected to return" in 2024. Who it is that is expecting it I dunno. GMs also float false stories with big names like this. If they dont tell them its fake, then they lose the ability to do it again, but supposedly, they call the reporter, tell them its a rumor and if they post it, they will give that reporter the exclusive on the story when the decision is actually made. Now I cant for the life of guess why Poles would want to put that out there and lie. Maybe he wants other teams not to be as worried and try to get to his guys faster? I dunno, but it turns into a giant conspiracy theory pretty quick, so Im not making a guess as to why. If its someone else in the organization, or maybe Flus' agent, then they dont know but theyre manipulating or guessing. Maybe Poles is taking the temperature of the fans to see how much of a hit hes going to take if he keeps or dumps him? Like a trial balloon? All this to say, Rappaport is often right, but I cant understand what it is he could really know. And his words were expected so that makes it even less definitive. Still, it was enough to make me say "shit" out loud.

It's like no one going to Bo Callahan's birthday party in "Draft Day"

I put this on another thread just now too. PFF is random. They told us Charles Leno was the best OT in the league, while we watched him be a turnstyle every week. A lot of times Leno was just plain blocking thew wrong guy. So if the guard and Leno each have a defender in front of them, and the the guard takes his guy, and Leno doubles the guard's guy and leaves his own assignement completely unblocked, and that guy comes in and destroys the QB thats a positive grade on Leno because they guy he made contact with wasnt the one getting the sack. In fact its probably a + play because the doubled defender didnt sniff the QB. Good job Leno! PFF is a total joke. They are random.

PFF is random, especially when it comes to linemen. Remember when they told us Charles Leno was one of the best OTs in the NFL? We were watching him be a turnstyle every week and those PFFers said he was the best. Obviously there are major flaws in their methodology that render their opinions completely unreliable. Like a coin flip, they can be right or wrong at any given moment.

Interesting I had read and heard the opposite, but in a quick google search Im finding nothing. i did read your link and it does look that way. Ill dig more tomorrow.

the team trading for him doesnt have that option. I think the bears have to exercise it, and then the $ is guaranteed, and i think it counts against our cap when we trade? I do know for sure that you cant trade the option to the new team. But maybe you can trigger it and then trade. But then who pays the $25M cap figure?

do you think a team trading for Fields would want the 5th year option in place? i would assume they wouldnt, that would give him year 4 to prove himself and then they sign him to a long term deal during next year? If youre a team taking on Fields after he didnt work out in Chicago, I would think youd be more afraid of the $25 Mil commitment without seeing how he does in your system? I still think that money would count against our cap too but i cant find anything either way on that scenario

yeah that does address my point for sure, but yikes.

Here's Eberflus chatting up the players during warm ups. i have it time stamped at :40 which is where the Fields portion is. Flus says to Fields "You got it 1 - Hey - every play's your play to make right?" and Fields is looking up at him in a positive and glowing way. Then Flus continues... "the simple ones" (and this is where he pounds Fields' chest for emphasis) and then he adds with less enthusiasm "and the amazing ones lets go" and at this point Fields looks embarrassed or disconnecting - not happy. Wanna know what Eberflus thinks of Fields? that says a lot right there. Eberflus: "You make the amazing plays, but just execute the simple ones ok?" Fields: " ah man I know Im so sick of hearing it. arent the amazing plays what this is really all about? dont burden me with this corny small execute the play stuff" I have no doubt others will interpet this all differently, but the moment Flus chooses to touch Fields, the change in Fields face and body language, and the tone and speed of Flus' words are pretty obvious. I fear we will trade Fields and keep Eberflus, joining a THIRD rookie QB's entree into the NFL in a row to the last year of an outgoing coach's tenure. If the timestamp doesnt work, its at 40 seconds

I like that name for sure. It's all up to whatever the head coach wants. Whoever that is LOL

Youre right about the process, but i would bet Poles is already making lists of coaches, head coaches, defensive coordinators, offensive coordinators to cover every eventuality. The college coaches will all be in play shortly too, so he does need to do his due diligence on all his options right now. Of course making a decision is different than setting out your options, especially if he's 100% keeping Eberflus. But if he isn't keeping him, or isnt sure if hes keeping him, then I would bet he's already well along making lists of coaching names, maybe even sending unofficial feelers. Coaches are deep in the season, but GMs are already looking to the next several months i would think. As for players, which is what youre talking about, they would need to already know who the head coach is going to be, and likely the OC before they can make full decisions on QB. But I would also think that whatever Poles is expecting the outcome of all that process will be right now, is what it's gonna be after they go through all the motions. So he knows, but he doesn't KNOW. To be logical, Poles doesn't even KNOW hes gonna be GM next year, but I think we all pretty much know he will. And he knows that too.

No way Poles announces either way about the 5th year option until after the draft.

OK, good optimistic take. Certainly if Eberflus is retained, they'll get SOMEONE to be OC, and maybe they will be great, and save Fields and all of that. I guess i just think there would be some candidates who would be out of the running for OC next year under Eberflus, who would definitely join a new coach here next year as OC instead, but no one who would come here next year under Eberflus would avoid the job because it wasnt Eberflus? So I guess Im saying the talent pool is smaller if you keep Eberflus. But youre right, there are probably some very talented guys who would take the job, and maybe one would be the next NFL genius. And you supplied names too, which is more than Ive got.

I dont think anyone has been told anything definitively? It seems like in every business everyone is hired until they're fired. You surely dont tell any employee that they are going to be fired until you actually drop the axe. I suppose it's possible that Poles has told Eberflus that he's back already, but that would be kind of foolish since you never know what the future holds and you dont HAVE to say anything even if Poles is internally 95% that Flus is coming back. I think whenever that kind of question comes up, and probably they are both smart enough to avoid talking about it, the answer is "after the season we do our season review of every player and coach." and that takes the topic off of the table. So Flus is right, he doesnt know if Fields will be the starter, because no one "knows" anything yet, including Poles. I mean Poles might be thinking he is 100% on keeping or trading Fields, but if he has a new coach, that guy will have an opinion you gotta weigh too. You all know I'm in the trade Fields camp. But If I was GM, and somehow I ended up hiring Jim Harbaugh, or Andy Reid by some scenario etc, and they told me they disagreed with me 100%, I'd be a fool not to listen and figure out the best way to accommodate my incoming genius coach. And that'd be true if I was all in on Fields and they wanted him out too. I think Eberflus and Fields dont "know" anything directly, but probably get best professional guess advice from their agents, who are also smart enough not to be definitive one way or the other, and probably discuss scenarios rather than certain outcomes? But they might well be telling them "theres a good chance youre back" or "theres a good chance you arent" and that's all about reading Ryan Poles and Kevin Warren, and I wouldnt want to hazard a guess personally. I know what Id do, so I might be tempted to say "theyre smart, theyd do what Id do because i think Im right" but they might also do what it hink is wrong, so what the hell do I know about what Poles thinks?! LOL

thats the most straightforward way. If you want someone other than Caleb Williams, you might be OK trading out of #1 to #3 or something and taking a QB there? Not as big a haul as going to #11, but still.

as long as we are doing all of this, Ive been wanting to make one point, because I am worried about what the Bears are gonna do. Everything I'm saying on this board about Eberflus and Fields is what I want them to do - I am pretty sure in my decisions at this point, I have convictions about them. But I'm not predicting what the Bears are GOING to do. I'm a lot less certain about that. And I really hope they do the right thing, but this IS the Bears.

well first off youre right of course that nothing any of us says will make a difference! Still its fun to debate it and think about the different scenarios. I also agree that Poles knows what he thinks. But if we're getting a new coach, their opinion will play into this too. So he cant 100% know what hes going to do. But if he wasnt 90% sure already, he'd be a terrible GM for sure. And locker room is definitely a part of it. But so are skills, development, all kinds of stuff. I want a new coach and a new QB and I want our GM to hit home runs on both decisions. I want to go from bottom third to top 5 teams and be feared. I'd also like to find a billion dollars in a suitcase by the side of the road. Or maybe better a rich uncle. Thinking of inheritance taxes, let's make it 2 billion LOL

from another couch idiot (me) - well said.