BearFan PHX

I agree, free agency or maybe a 3rd rounder could go to OG, after OC and FS are addressed, and not including the 2 first rounders for QB and WR. And that OG could be a developmental player, someone who needs a year. They will be the "Swing guard" it wouldnt hurt if they had some center experience too in case our OC solution gets injured. But hopefully you'd take someone who could challenge Davis for starting time. get those three players competing for two spots and the odd man out is injury duty, which seems likely given our two guards. Id also like to see us pick up a TE2, and some help on the DL. Thats probably in free agency, and possibly lower in the draft. Id expect our last couple picks to be developmental guys on the OL or DL too. If we dont take a QB or WR with the first two picks, or trade down and gain extra picks and player(s) then all bets are off of course.

That's exactly it. No doubt the odds of getting Payton Manning are low. And AZ54 is right that everyone looks backwards and blames GMs for not predicting the future. And of course if you could predict the future, youd be the richest man in the world, and no one ever can. But people can assess risk and reward, and surely buying a lottery ticket that has a 33% chance to payoff a franchise QB is definitely worth buying, and all things being equal you can expect to win about 1 in three times. If you take two swings at it, you might well get it, if you take four, youre very likely to get it. And if you do it ten times, you might reliably get a Payton Manning out of that, which is why his price is 10 firsts (or whatever it is). You gotta take the chance. It's 1 second left in the 4th quarter of the Superbowl and youre down by 5 with the ball on the 50 yard line. A screen has a much higher percentage chance to get at least 20 yards, but will almost certainly not score on the prevent defense. The Hail Mary has a low percentage chance to score a touchdown, but a touchdown is the only thing that will win it for you. Who calls the screen? We all call the Hail Mary. And taking a top QB in the top few picks is a better bet than the Hail Mary, and the same prize is on the line - Super Bowl Victory. You gotta take a QB somewhere in the top 5 ish.

oh thats for sure, Bagents sample size is small. But i think Bagent's problem (in addition to the weaker arm?) is that while he never held on to the ball too long, or got sacked much, the flip side is that he might have made some too quick reads he shouldnt have and as a result has increased interceptions. Hes the opposite of Fields in that way. Bagent will learnt hat with more game experience if he ever gets it, and apparently arm strength can be built in the gym - Tom Brady being an excellent example. I wonder about Bagents future. I think he has a lot more in him.

thats not as far fetched as it may seem. They almost certainly discussed the draft, and while I doubt they said "heres what were gonna do" Im sure the questions they asked tipped their hands a bit. Good point.

There are reports that Williams may wish to game the system by avoiding the NFL draft and then coming into the league in the supplemental draft, in which the order of things does not favor the Bears. Im gonna say this, if Williams is not a Bear, Im gonna hate him for his whole career with a passion. Im not saying I want him to be a Bear, but dude, you and your painted fingernails are not bigger than the NFL. Now take a guy like Dennis Rodman for example, who I absolutely love. He is painted, pierced and even dresses in womens clothing, and he hustled his ASS off for his team and never pulled that kind of crap. So I dont care about the nails or whatever per se - but when they are a symptom of a personality disorder that shows the player to be selfish and entitled, then I think that guy can go to hell. Whatever anyone could say of Rodman, no one would call him entitled. No one hustled harder than the worm. I freakin' love that guy. Williams seems like an entitled baby, and I'd love to see him get destroyed int he NFL, assuming he is not a Bear of course. As someone here just eloquently said "he gives me Claypool vibes"

yeah but they are percentages, not raw numbers, so they scale to take into account the number of starts?

well 3rd round eltie QBs are like 5%, and that means you hit one out of 20 times, so there is that one, you just cant count on it. So stats arent wrong because of the exceptions, they quantify the likelihood of finding exceptions.

yeah this is what I was saying above. By all accounts he is very valuable for us, and of all years we need all the analytical help we can get going into the draft, this one has to be tops.

I just googled, and the modern game has really changed. 10 of the top 11 all time career completion percentage leaders are currently playing in the NFL. I mean hell, Trubisky is 29th all time with 64.1%, while Brady is 24th at 64.3%. Marino is 79th with 59.4% - but by eye, Brady and Marino were known as surgeons on the field, getting the ball out quick to the right receiver. Fields didnt make the list because he hasnt played enough games I guess, and stands at 60.3% I guess pure career completion percentage isnt gonna be the stat to use, but there must be a related one that tells the story, because we all know the Montana, Manning, Brady, Marino type of all time greats who didnt move and got the ball out quick to the right guy. Whatever that stat is, it will tell the story of what Im saying about being mobile being a great multiplier, but not enough to substitute for the core skill of executing the offense.

for sure all the extra skills are multipliers, and there are lots of ways to play the position. But I would argue that with or without those extra skills, if a pocket statue could complete 70% of their passes in rhythm, that alone would be greatness. And conversely, if you complete 50% of your passes, no matter how good you are running, you will not be great. Think of Dan Marino, Payton Manning and Tom Brady as pocket statues. If any of them could have run like Josh Allen even, then theyd have been even more dominant, but they didnt have to. Executing the offense is really all that is necessary. I havent done my homework on Drake Maye at all, am I already sounding like a Maye proponent? LOL

unless they are all in on Williams and want to run the same type of offense that would work with Fields. But for me, yes, I want to see a QB who can make reads and execute the offense in rhythm. And then whatever other skills they have are an added bonus that gets you a first down or two on every drive.

I think Poles listens to my comments the most LOLOL

Its a good point. I think you need a mix of both. As you build the roster you need a bunch of decent players, but then you also need those few difference makers. At the beginning, trading down makes all the sense in the world. You have nothing, and bringing in a single blue chipper (if you can even get that right!) will just result in that blue chipper having no one around him to work with. Later, as your depth fills out, you need those few difference makers, and even though the risk is great, eventually you need a QB who is one of the best in the league. Without that, it's almost impossible with the current rules to reliably contend for a Super Bowl Championship. You might luck into an appearance, like Lovie did, but even with Hesters 7 point handicap returning the opening kick for a TD, we still had no chance of beating Payton Manning through the rest of the 59 minutes. I think we are getting near to the point where it's time to get that blue chip player. The Draft haul available by trading the #1 pick will be substantial. Maybe we will split the difference and just trade down a few spots and take a QB at #3 or #4 or something. Next year for sure we will be in blue chip territory, and if it's gonna be a QB, we can give him this year to learn. But I definitely see the logic of what you're saying Jason, and I agree with you about building the lines too - it's kind of a related argument, and it makes sense. But I also think at some point you need that world beating QB, and as difficult as that is to find with a top pick, it's even more difficult when youre stuck at 9-8 every year, too good to have a top pick, and too bad to actually contend? this is what Im saying too, and as usual I needed too many more words to say the same thing LOL

If Cunningham stays another year, maybe thats good, so he can help with QB decisions.

Oh man it couldn't be said better. That is 100% it. yeah it really feels that way For all his issues, Justin Fields has never given less than all he has, and never had crap like this. And speaking of, how about Jameis Winston making a unilateral decision to score against the Falcons on what was called by the coach to be a kneel down? I think with NIL and egos running wild we will see more of this lack of discipline in some of the players in the draft. I can see there being bad boy teams like the Raiders once were, and teams that have more discipline. It will be interesting to watch them compete too. Sometimes that attitude comes from being really good, and we all remember a certain punky QB that won us a Superbowl. There will be bad boy heroes and villains. But Justin has never been like that, and I would prefer smart, disciplined excellent QBs in the future to a headcase every time.

and if he has to pay Justin, then he presumably traded the #1 pick down and got more high picks, so hed have more impact players on rookie deals at other positions to balance out some of the extra money to Fields? Is that a wash or how one sided is it?

LOL everything is the best or the worst. Every player and coach is loved or hated. Not much nuance at all out there.

I havent done my homework yet, but right now, Im out on Caleb. I agree he is short, and his mystique is not gonna last through the combine - I bet he will only throw at his own pro day etc. His ego is too big, and i cant wait to see him get hammered in the NFL. Where Justin is easy to root for personally, Caleb is not. But all that aside, who is the gem QB in this years draft? Is there one? Can they be identified? I thought it might be Penix, but after the National Championship game, Im looking at Daniels. And I have never given Maye a fair shake at all.

LOL

They may be looking to fix Justin, and they may be looking to ease fears of a rookie (Williams) coming into the situation, since we kept Eberflus. The same guy (whoever that is) probably fits both bills. In keeping the OL coach, the incoming guy will almost certainly be a passing specialist. I hate that Williams has made noises like he might choose not to play for a team that drafts him, and all the other silliness. If he isn't a Bear, I am really going to enjoy hating him for his career. I will like him less than Rodgers. If he is a Bear, and plays well for us, I will love him like and elderly rich wife I married for her money LOL

I don't have faith in their morality - I have faith that they want to win and make money at any cost. That they are greedy and self interested. To call it faith as if i think they are good and interested in moral decisions is very different from what I said in my post. It's a semantic trick on the word "faith in" I totally agree with you that I dont have faith in them to choose right over profit. My point was the total opposite of that? I think there are levels to this. Level 1 is overt conscious racism i.e. explicit racism. That would mean an owner or GM knew that a minority candidate was better but refused to hire them because they are black or asian or whatever. That makes no sense to me, but if I am naive and such creatures do exist in the NFL, I cant believe theyd hire the guy for the extra 3rd rounders, if they are that hateful. Level 2, is more likely, that would be unconscious bias where the decision maker doesnt realize they are racist, but are seeing people wrongly because of implicit bias. that's implicit racism. In that case i still dont think 2 3rd rounders would make the difference - who is gonna hire someone they (wrongly) think is less able for a couple 3rd rounders? This is why Id favor a Rooney rule for GMs and assistant GMs instead, it puts qualified minority candidates in meetings with decision makers so their ability and personal energy can win the room. Level 3 is where the decision maker has no bias, and chooses a minority candidate who is equally qualified as other candidates just to get the picks. That's no racism. And if the rule exists, this is what I hope the Bears will do. But what it means is that you didnt overcome a racist (explicit or implicit) decision maker, you just increased minority representation. i think this is illegal, although Im sure no politician or prosecutor wants to touch that issue. But the white guy thats getting passed over, he isn't benefitting because some other white guy has a job? And you havent changed anything because this decision maker in this scenario isnt level 1 or 2 anyway? At any rate, I have no doubt that minority representation in GMs will increase with or without these rules, because there are a lot of well connected, football experienced minority people in the pipeline who will get jobs on merit alone. All it really does is perhaps cheapen their personal accomplishment by adding the question of whether they personally would have still gotten the job if they were white? Im saying lots would still get the job, and didnt need the rule. But like I said, a Rooney rule for GMs and assistant GMs would be welcome. Nothing at all wrong with that in my eyes.

So far I think Poles has done an excellent job. He tore down the bloated roster. Took the heat for having an inept 2022 season, built a large part of the supporting roster out while maintaining discipline, not overspending or overreaching. All excellent. But Poles is at an inflection point now. All of what he's done so far was reasonably obvious strategically, even as it required a deft hand in execution and choices. He did well. But now the big decisions come. Coaches and QB. he will be remembered for what he does going forward from here, more than for trading Roquan, or giving Fields last year to prove himself. In my mind, he's already stumbled on the coaching decision. For sure it can be mitigated with successful coordinator hires. But up until the Eberflus decision, I would be giving Poles an A+. But all those things, difficult as they were, are small compared to this upcoming round of decisions. Who will be the Bears Head Coach and Starting QB in 2025 and 2026? How many wins will we have in those seasons? The answers to those questions will be the yardstick by which Poles will be measured, and if he gets them right, the 2024 season will probably be bright and full of hope. But if he gets the wrong, he squanders everything else he's done. So this is new territory for Poles. The training wheels are off, and the big tough decisions lie ahead. Who of us can say what Caleb Williams will be? I sure cant. No one can. But Poles will get a raise or be fired if he cant answer that (unanswerable!) question, and the related ones correctly. To me, keeping Eberflus was the first mistake. So let's see how this goes from here. It's a lot of pressure, and to be fair, it's almost impossible to know what the rookies will be. But we kinda know who Fields is. If he gets the 5th year extension for example, that's would be a giant bet for Poles.

I agree with everything you've both said until that last line. Owners can be trusted to be greedy and work in self interest. People can certainly be ignorant, and maybe their race filter makes them wrongly not see minority talent in front of them, but there is no way any NFL team would pick a less qualified white guy because hes white. These guys would sell their own mothers for an extra win a year. The Rooney rule is great because it puts candidates in front of decision makers, and that helps ease the first problem I mentioned above. If youre unconsciously blind to something for example, that really helps. But this new rule where you get 2 x 3rd round picks for hiring a minority assistant GM who is then hired away seems wrong to me. In my view it's not necessary, again, because these guys want the best talent, and wont consciously let race get in their way to having the best people. What it does instead, is incentivize hiring someone who may be less qualified in order to get those picks. If two candidates are equally qualified it gives an edge to the minority hire - not even sure I love that. Seems illegal. A Rooney rule for GM and assistant GM hiring would be preferable in my view. Of course, I'm all for minority people in the NFL. That seems almost a silly thing to say out loud since so many players are not white, and former players make up a good part of the pool from which future leadership positions are drawn. This isn't 1940s basketball for example. Let me also say that the NFL was not always color blind. No one can say that in the 70s or beyond that there wasn't a stigma around black QBs for example. That was a real shame too. It was stupid. And racist. But we got past it just by our culture evolving and the hyper competitive nature of winning in the NFL. And we didnt have to give free draft picks to teams to do it either. Pure greed for wins overcomes everything else, as it should be. But as long as there are free draft picks available, I expect teams to want them. Given multiple candidates that are all equally qualified, I hope the Bears use this rule and get more picks. But I think the rule isn't helping as much as intended. It will make people wonder whether the guy that got hired really was the best for the job, or if they got hired for the picks - and I think that does more damage to the NFL group-think about the value of minority GMs than it helps. What will really help things continue to change are Super Bowl winning GMs of all colors. And rule or no rule, that is going to happen either way. I should also add that by all accounts Ian Cunningham did an exceptional job for us, and is being considered for GM positions because he was not simply qualified, but one of the best (if not the best) assistant GM in the league. To the point where I have wondered to myself whether if Poles retains Eberflus AND FIelds, and fumbles the coordinator jobs, that I might not consider calling for Poles to be fired, and replaced by Cunningham!

for sure on keeping Justin last year - it would have been stupid not to. we needed to see who he was, how he could grow. you cant just walk away from that kind of athletic talent without at least seeing him with something around him. Now this year, thats a different story. But who is the right rookie? Who the heck knows. Maybe the best one this year will end up to be Mccarthy in the second round, or maybe its Williams at #1 etc. My crystal ball is entirely cloudy.

I completely agree. I think Poles did the right thing. My comment was just that his answer now was a little slick because he is saying he'd rather have had a haul that includes this years number one, which he didnt know would be #1, and passing on Stroud which time may tell (in hindsight) was a miss. If he'd said it was the right decision at the time, Im 100% agreed. But if he'd known this would be a #1 pick, then hed have known Stroud would be this good too. ANd again, Im not even saying Stroud is gonna be great either. It was just a little slick, giving himself credit for something he couldnt have known, and a pass on something else he couldnt have known either. But for example, every team that didnt draft Brady in the first 5 rounds could easily and rightly say "at the time, it was the right decision" who could argue that? Not even the Patriots who passed on him through 5 rounds. But to look back now and say "Im still happy with the 5th round pick I took back then rather than taking Brady" is a less sustainable statement. But again, to be clear, I think Poles did exactly the right thing last year, I was just commenting on the statement being a little slick. In general these discussion seem to feel like you love someone or you hate them, and iw as just injecting a tiny bit of nuance. Nothing important, and nothing that changes my opinion of Poles. Keeping Eberflus on the other hand, and what he does with Justin are different issues, but this statement? Just a little too slick - not even a 5 yard penalty tho. But hypothetically, if in two years Stroud is the best QB in the league, then no one could say theyd rather have that haul including Moore etc. In that case, the right answer is the QB. Again, no one could know at the time, nor could they know the CAR pick would be the #1 pick either.