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adam, thank you for doing all that research - it surely helps these debates when there are facts to educate the participants. The simple fact is that in the best area to pick a QB, the first pick overall, you still have a decent bust %. It's always a risk to take a QB. But it's also obvious that waiting until after the top ten picks makes it many times more difficult to pick a QB that wont bust. These arguments of anecdotal evidence (Tom Brady, Brock Purdy) don't negate my point. And neither do the legions of other QBs taken after the first round that went nowhere. It is not impossible to find a QB in the 6th round, but it is incredibly unlikely. The thing is, you know what you have in Fields now. He's an athletic and heroic player who cant execute the offense as designed and only has success freelancing. Even Fields himself said it earlier this year. He feels like executing the offense makes him robotic. Too much "coaching" I remember the narratives at the beginning of the year. That he needed a better OL and open receivers to throw to. That was a fair argument at the time. But now we've seen this season. We've seen that with better protection and open guys he is still holding on to the ball, and only making plays after the play has broken. SO for me, that makes it easy to move on from him, because while I dont know what the rookie QB will end up to be, I know what Fields' NFL ceiling is now. And it isn't good enough. Flus and Fields have to go if we want to be a team that is a real contender.

right! Of course the players who have better odds of success are drafted earlier. That should be obvious to most people.

me too. If Harbaugh wants a ham sandwich at QB, I'll be like "what kind of bread do you need?"

Oh for sure. The players are good! They ARE fun to watch! I just think the scheme isnt so great - but the players are playing hard.

For those saying Eberflus has a top Defense, here are some stats... The (seeming) good news: Bears have the 11th best defense overall for yards allowed Bears have the 2nd best defense for rushing yards allowed The back to earth context of those numbers: Bears have the 25th best defense for passing yards allowed Bears have the 27th best defense for scoring allowed (which is the one that really matters) Bears have the 32nd best (the worst!) defense for TD% in the Red Zone (teams score a TD 73.5% of the time on us) Bears have the 30th best defense on 3rd down (teams convert 46.1% of the time against us on 3rd down) So if we cant stop anyone on 3rd down or in the red zone, how do we have the 11th best vs total yards? It means poor field position because of the offense. We are not the 11th best defense in the league. Teams convert and score on us as much as any team in the league. They were just somehow closer on average to the end zone when they started those drives! Now by the eye test, I see massive improvement. The roster is growing in experience and you can see that on the field. I just can't in good faith give a lot of credit to Eberflus - mostly because, by the numbers - there isn't that much to praise. I think the roster is getting good. I think we are so used to seeing awful football that something that looks like it has some hope looks really good to us. Wait for the next coach to come in, and hopefully then we'll see something from this group that makes what we're seeing this year fade into a memory quickly.

well it would be best if the franchise QB was a walk on free agent and we didnt even need to spend a draft pick on him - and ditto for Hall of Famers at every position. I hope we get lots of amazing players at bargain prices. But in the real world, we kinda gotta be looking at a QB in the top 10 picks.

My answer was statistical, not determinative. So it IS fact, but not without exceptions - the point being that those exceptions are quantifiably, and exceedingly rare? The only fact Im claiming is that you are much much more likely to find a franchise or elite QB in the top 10 picks of the draft than anywhere else. It IS possible, but it is only 19% in the second round, 6% in the third round, and worse after that. Also, Grizz I sent you a message...

of course. It's funny we are even discussing it. And I think pretty much everyone is agreeing. I mean there's always that one holdout that thinks 2+2=5. but what are you gonna do?

That list certainly proves the point that top 10 QBs are MUCH more likely to be franchise QBs than any others. And Im not sure thats even the cleanest way to measure it? I think what you do is take the number of QBs drafted in each round and then find the percentage that become franchise QBs. You can also see who becomes a productive starter. Then you'll see that while there are plenty of busts in the first round, they overwhelm the stats for each subsequent round. Here's a quote from a 30 year study from Harvard about this. Admittedly the study is from 2011, but it tracked 30 years of draft and performance data. So it's a start anyway. It concludes: 60% of number one pick QBs become elite (27% become middle of the pack, only 13% bust) 39% first round QBs become elite (22% become middle of the pack, 39% bust) 19% second round QBs become elite 6% third round QBs become elite That's about the coin flip boom or bust (39%/22%/39%) we expect from first round QBs. It's hard to know what you're getting. But it becomes much much worse after the first round, where less than 1 in 5 become elite. Here's from the Harvard study "Looking back on the last thirty years of the draft, it turns out that 39% of QBs taken in the first round became “elite” QBs (4,000 season passing yards, 60% completion percentage, a certain “put-the-team-on-my-back”-itude) while 39% become “busts”; the remaining 22% become middle-of-the-pack players. In fact, the first pick is the best time to take a QB: nine out of the fifteen QBs selected first overall in the past thirty years have become elite while only two have turned into busts. After the first round, the chances of selecting an elite quarterback plummet to 19% in the second, 6% in the third, and dwindle to 1% in the seventh round. Contrary to what many believe, the earlier you select a QB, the better the odds that he is actually good. Drafting an elite quarterback pays immediate dividends, as average win percentage rises from 41% to 52% in two years. It takes teams, on average, eight years to reach 0.500 after drafting a bust QB. Drafting a quarterback is a necessary gamble that most teams lose, but they must try anyway in hopes of landing a player who will transform their franchise." Basically these two things are true: 1) You need an elite QB to win Super Bowls 2) You're 60% likely to get one with the first pick overall and it goes down quickly from there, to 39% for the rest of the first round, only 19% in the second round dropping below 6% lower than that. Look at the QBs going to the playoffs this year. Most will be first rounders, most will be top 10 picks. As Adam just showed, more than 75% of the top QBs were first rounders. 90% of those were top 10 picks. I mean this isnt rocket science. To those who say that former players know what they are talking about, consider that current GMs know even more about the players in the draft. They may bust first round QB picks 4 out of 10 times, but they win with their top pick QBs a LOT more, like 3 to 1 over all other rounds. You're not gonna find a QB to take you to the Super Bowl in the 2nd round or later. It's a dream. 4 to 1 against, and then it plummets to 19 to 1 after that.

lol

drafting a QB is always a risk, but for sure youre MUCH MUCH less likely to find a franchise QB after the first round?

ahahaha

LOL I just wonder how likely it is to find a franchise QB in later rounds? It feels more like a gesture to justify not spending one of the top two picks on a QB? For me, I think the QBs Im interested in will be gone by the middle of the first round. I would think about taking MHJr with the #1 overall, and a QB with the second first rounder. I know it means no trade down for a huge haul, but if it means a franchise QB and a dominant WR, that's still a pretty good haul.

Velus and Claypool were both reaches with short term on the mind. The kind of move you never want to make, but if you wanted to hope to evaluate Fields last year during the teardown, you had to hope you could find some receivers without really having the draft or cap capital to do it right long term. I know why he reached, and reaching is why things like that fail. But he had to take the swing, and it didnt really cost that much looking forward. But is Velus done? For sure.

right. I dunno what exactly the penalty should be, but it should be enough that you wouldn't use it for an extra timeout. I suppose this is why there are no challenges inside 2 minutes in the first place. My point of view on last minute heroics and penalties is that you really want a team that can stay at least two scores ahead of their opponent, so little mistakes cant cost you a game. I know that's a lot to ask, but I am really hoping that we are building a truly dominant team. I want another hit of that sweet 1985 feeling. They didnt need challenges in the last minute to destroy the morale of their opponents.

the only problem with that is that it just becomes a 4th timeout. Maybe add a 10 second runoff if the challenge isn't upheld?

The draft site I looked at has Penix going at pick number 9, the 4th QB off the board. People who think these QBs will drop into later rounds are forgetting the QB hype that happens every year. If anyone thinks Penix, undefeated and in Heisman contention is going to be the 8th QB taken, I think that's really silly, but people have all kinds of opinions out there I guess.

It's so early, but don't sleep on Michael Penix either. Hes played 46 games, started 43 of them, has a record of 36-7 including being undefeated this year 13-0. He's got a cannon for an arm and makes fast reads - the ball comes out on time and on target. His RTG the last five years are: 157.6, 136.5, 101.9, 151.3 and 161.4 this year. His career RTG vs AP top 25 teams is 144. 4,641 yards last year and 31 TDs 8 INT 4,218 yards this year and 33 TDs 9 INT And did I mention he has a cannon for an arm? 6' 3" 213 pounds NFL Draft Buzz has him as the 4th best QB, predicted to go 10th overall. "Outstanding quick processor - he goes through his progressions like an experienced vet." "effectively looks off defenders. He's also a natural in leading receivers and his timing is elite" "From a physical standpoint, a prototypical modern quarterback" "Has an impressive ability to buy time and avoid the pass rush. Doesn't look to run and is patient waiting for his receivers to get open" "strong right arm and is capable of making every NFL throw easily. Can drive the deep out to the sideline from the opposite hash and has no problem threading the needle between closing defenders" They say Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix I also read injury concerns, but he started so many games... hmmm more to research but look at the arm strength...

That IS the question (or one of them!) I was just seeing if you had any wiggle room in the no WR at #1, and you do. I need to watch more film before i can really participate in these discussions. Im sure Ill have more formulated opinions as we get closer to the draft

cool, cuz Id take Randy Moss in a heartbeat, and MHJr looks really good, and I dont know exactly what he will be in the NFL. He looks like he's gonna be dominant, but that's just a guess of course until we see it. Glad we agree that if you KNEW it was Moss, we'd both take him.

Well I cant say MHJr will be Randy Moss, but if you knew it was gonna be Randy Moss, would you consider that WR at #1?

lol thats hilarious

Where Im at right now I agree about Williams and Maye. I do like Daniels a lot, and I need to watch more film. I agree we can get the right QB later than the first few pics, but Im not sure we can get them as low as the second round after the QB hype machine rolls through the combine etc. I personally think it might be smart to take MHJr with the #1 overall, and then trade #5(?) down to around 8 or 10 and get the QB. We might not get the bonanza of picks, but if we get a franchise QB and the next Randy Moss out of the first round, that wouldnt suck. Then you grab that Center, and then draft FS and BPA Of course this is all not knowing what Free Agency will bring either.

Patriots are the bigger threat now to steal it from CAR. It's so hard to believe the Pats arent gonna win like 3 games. Just so weird to see them so bad.

ha I was just gonna say that too The ghosts of Halas and Payton work in mysterious ways...