BearFan PHX

very cool - thank you. I was just wondering what kind of draft hauls people could get while not trading the first pick. I see a lot of incredible drafts where we get 7 first rounders next year and all that, and Im wondering if that kind of magic is available in these draft games if you trade down the 5th (or whatever) pick but not the #1 overall. I do admit that no player, QB, MHJr whoever is worth 7 2025 firsts. So if that really is on the table in the real world, you gotta take it. I dont think it is, but these draft games are fun, and Im just wondering if you can get a haul in the game without trading the #1.

this is also part of the argument for having new coaches if you draft a new QB. when the coaches are failing and on the way out the door, you just ruin the confidence of young QBs. All that said though, there are myriad examples of Fields with a clean pocket looking right at wide open first read WRs and not pulling the trigger. And you cant just put this on the Bears since it was the number one criticism of him coming out of college too. If he throws for 4 TDs on the run today it isnt going to change my mind. But if he sits in the pocket and makes reads consistently, that is going to be the road to success for him here or wherever he goes.

I still dont see Fields regularly reading through his progression and throwing the ball to the open man at the point the route is designed to break open.

Good one - yeah I think you're right, and it proves it's a cumulative rolling average kind of thing, not a week to week raw data thing. Thank you. Rodgers and Manning's slopes are amazing. The lack of valleys probably means they not only play at a high level, but they do it consistently week to week. And however it works, if you consistently put up good performances, that's gonna make your line go up for sure. If Fields can consistently have 300+ yard 3 TD games, he would start to elevate, and of course if he did that, we'd all want to keep him! So far in his career, he's gone over 200 seven times, and only got over 300 once, against Denver this year, in a game we lost, the week after Denver gave up 70 points. And that seems to have made his bump go up there for a while. But Fields is talented, and there is no way to know what tomorrow brings, I admit.

I dunno, it looks like Justin's line is pretty far under Trevor's except for that one hump where they crossed before Trevor took off? And I admit I really don't know what elo IS, so I may be missing something fundamental? If JF wins out, do you know what his elo number would be? I think it includes a bunch of stats too, not just winning, more like a different kind of QBR, but I am pretty ignorant of what it is, or how the chart works. For example, if you could have one game with a QBR of 0 and the next week of 150, would the ELO jump vertically, or does it slope like a chess rating, like a rolling weighted average? In any case, you know my argument about reading and timing and all that, and that JF winning games in different ways doesnt really address this concern directly? We get to see another one tomorrow, for sure.

Oh man, i think translating from college to the pros is impossible to do reliably. I think every QB has to grow in the NFL to survive, and you can guess at how well they'll take to the new league, but until they actually do it, that's literally the billion dollar question. If someone could do just that, they could charge a ransom for the information. GMs get paid pretty well to approximate nothing more than a decent guess at this, and they get full staffs of scouts and analysts to do it. And they're still so hit and miss. I'd love to see a set of numbers that you could trust on this, a trend you could apply, but i dont think one really exists. i know a lot of people try to find a way to crunch the numbers to get a definitive answer to this, but they cant. I do think it's easier to guess at who won't make it, you can rule some out, but this is THE big question in a league full of multi billion dollar franchises. You could find a college version of this, but as far as how they relate, I doubt there is any algorithm that could find any reliable predictive trend.

a freakin men. and just like the New England fans, people will be upset as favorite players are traded away, but that is the winning formula if you can pull it off and make the right replacement choices.

That's what I think too. The acquisition phase burns out pretty quick. I think that's why teams like New England were trading away good players before their second deals, like Akiem Hicks. It kept them in rookie contracts and constant draft acquisition mode. It's risky, but if you are great at talent evaluation, it's the way to go to keep yourself in the hunt year after year - assuming you have a great QB all sewn up of course. But it's hard on fans who grow attached to players who are playing well. It's a brutal business.

LOL fair enough.

Its interesting. I added those other Bears QBs from over the years and Justin looks just terri ble beneath even the worst of them, but then, Trevor Lawrence is in the same neighborhood before getting better. I know the data is adjusted in some way for different eras, and I wonder if that is making Fields look more terrible in the charts that I posted than is fair, since everyone from this modern class is so far below. Makes me wonder if the adjustments are fair. I still think what i think about Fields from having watched the film, but Im wondering if the era to era comparisons on this site are fair. Even still Fields now is at Trevor's lowest point. And Zach Wilson - wow.

good point, I hadnt considered compensatory picks angle, thank you for that. I wonder though, given all the cap space we have, whether we will qualify for compensatory picks, since we will be signing free agents too. Even still though, your point does make a rational justification for at least a 3rd round value. And that's right where I predict he'd fall too. I'm not personally on board with taking a top QB and keeping JF, but thats just my opinion, and I get the logic of what youre saying too. Also, if multiple teams are bidding, it could go much higher depending on what they are willing to offer to win a bidding war. But who knows what that market could be. Obviously the more teams are interested, the higher the price goes. It's not how badly we want to trade him that sets his value of course, but how badly more than one team wants him.

another set of former QBs that we all watched

Heres one against some other QBs we are familiar with

Hey Grizz, here's one site that will do it for you https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/

Im curious - can you guys do one where you keep the #1 pick and take MHJr, and still take a good QB no later than #11 and see what else you can get? I'd love to see how much value you guys can squeeze out of that scenario?

If we could even just get 30, that would be amazing. I would LOVE to be wrong on my guessed valuation.

interesting that Fields right now is right where Trubisky is right now. It's also super interesting to see that all of them start strong and then bottom out in the second half of the first season. That's something to keep in mind for any new QB - when it happens, not to panic too early, because it seems to be the norm. I think they start off without anyone knowing them well, and they do well, then defenses get a book on what they do well, and then they have to improve other areas of their game that the defenses arent expecting and hopefully dig themselves out of the hole. It may also be that I dont understand exactly what ELO is, so maybe you have to play a few games poorly before your number drops from the initial average, like a chess rating, so maybe they arent good then bad, it just takes a minute for this metric to track how bad they are when they first get started?

In my opinion, the probable trade value of JF is a high 3rd rounder, possibly to a 2nd rounder if there are multiple suitors, or if there is a conditional performance clause that kicks in if JF does well on his new team. Im not sure I agree that you keep or trade him based on what you can get for him, but these are all just my guesses and opinion. I definitely agree with the last thing you wrote "The NFL is down to no names lining up with the rash of injuries." it's SO true, and I guess it really underlines how in the salary cap era the coaching difference is even more important. It's freakin hard to put together a Super Bowl winner and continue to contend for seasons before and after. Without some luck, a true all time top 10 QB, and/or a legendary coach, maybe even impossible. I think about New England, and how amazing what they did was. I'd love a taste of that here in Chicago. Heck, even our 85 team was a one year thing, and to some extent the year prior (84) - but then fell apart quickly.

whether we root for them to win, or root for an increased draft outcome, we are all rooting for the Bears one way or another. I think it should also be said that if we are firing Eberflus, then whatever culture happened around winning or tanking gets reset when the new guy comes in anyway, so I dont think it carries over. Especially if your QB is gone too? Also, Eberflus has the worst winning percentage of any coach in Bears history, so not much of a culture to preserve? I do think the locker room is full of high character guys, and if anything that's where our culture lies, and thats Poles as much as anyone. But all that said, it's hard to root against them, especially when the defense is on the field. Personally at this point, I feel more like an observer than someone who is "rooting" - I want to watch every chapter of the story of this team, and I look forward to having them be winners in contention again.

it sure would. and as seductive as trading down for a haul of picks is, getting MHJr and Williams/Daniels would be amazing.

all good thoughts, and dont forget we have a ton of cap space too, so some answers might come in free agency. Maybe OC and FS in free agency? And if we are trading Fields, thats another draft pick too in the 2nd or 3rd round probably. Maybe 2025 though if we want it to conditionally increase in value if Fields plays a certain percentage of snaps for them or something? QB, OC, WR, FS, DL, TE, P Id look at MHJr at #1, and find our QB with our second first rounder assuming we dont win too many games in the stretch here and lose that 2nd first rounder down to where you cant get a QB anymore?

sure, and they (we) see the incredible potential that Fields obviously has as an athlete. Not to mention the exciting plays he makes to turn disasters into first downs. His hero ball is incredible. There must be a number of coaches in the league that think they can coach the guy up into a winner. And the corollary to that argument is his flaws which I wont bother listing again. A GM's job is hard.

I dont even think the people on that list are all saying definitively that Fields should be back. I youtube searched a few of the names, and watched the most recent videos and the opinions I saw were more balanced and nuanced than just "yes" or "no" For example, Kurt Warner said that he doesnt think reading defenses is Fields' strength. Dan Orlovsky said it was impossible to make a decision, and he thinks Fields should make it hard for the Bears to make a decision. That's really more rooting for someone than making a GM decision. I know from JT OSullivan's videos, he says Fields misses reads all the time. In no way am I saying that the people on this list are for dumping Fields either. Just that they are kind of being even handed and optimistic, and avoiding making definitive statements on it, which is smart for pundits who want to be around next year too. And I think in general, pundits aren't in the business of crapping on active talented players. If you say "keep Fields" then you arent crapping on anyone. It's a stretch to say that's disrespectful, for example, to Caleb Williams. But if you say "trade Fields" then youre dissing Fields. It makes a lot more sense to avoid saying that directly. And that way, you cant really be wrong either. If a rookie busts or Fields thrives somewhere else, then the pundit who said to dump him has a -1 on the scoreboard. But no one will remember if you say keep him and he is traded, and busts out in the second team. I CAN say that Fields himself is talking like he thinks there's a good chance he won't be in Chicago next year. And of course he doesn't know either. But given that, I'll bet his agent has prepared him for it, and how to answer questions without getting frustrated or hurting his own image. So Fields' agent must think it's a decent chance he is out of Chicago. And he would likely have some sort of inside information, even if it wasnt definitive. But a kind of read on the situation at least? I could guess that if Poles knew he was keeping Fields, he might tell him that for confidence sake, but I can understand why he wouldnt too. So there are no crystal balls. But as we have said before, there are reasons other than Fields himself to trade him too, like salary cap, and rookie deal windows, and we dont even know what the Bears think about the rookie QB class either. They each have positives and negatives too. So whatever a pundit might say is just sportstalk. It's not evidence. Whether they say keep him or trade him.

exactly. this is the problem. he's got all the tools, and its so seductive to think you could fix him. especially with that amazing arm. He is an amazing athlete, but not a QB.

and some of it goes on the OL, but a lot of of it goes on how long Fields holds the ball. Stats always have to be in context, and the context of Fields not making faster decisions is showing up in lots of different stats, including sacks. It's easy to say that he needs more OL help, and no OL is perfect so every team needs more, but at some point, if you have to put pro bowl talent at every position around a QB to see if he will succeed, then maybe you need a new QB. I'm not a Getsy apologist, but one thought I keep having is, if I was the OC, and I had a QB that just wouldnt pull the trigger, would I call more plays that dont have reads and force the QB to throw the ball in rhythm without making multiple reads like screens and rollouts?