BearFan PHX

Good QBs matter and are generally found at the top of the first round.

all true, Im not saying Stroud is a known winner, included that stuff to say that I admit making a QB draft choice is difficult. To my way of thinking, Fields is known (in my view) to not be the guy past a certain level. I know I want our team to go beyond that certain level. I admit that its really hard to know what you're getting with a new rookie QB. But it's also the only way to find someone who is beyond that level. So how to balance those concerns is hard, and I get everyone's take on it, whatever side theyre on. It just seems like Id rather take a chance on greatness than to stay with something short of greatness because I'm afraid the next one might be worse. It aint easy.

If we're trying to win the most games next season, then Fields could be the answer to the question. CJ Stroud might argue, but in general, it's not a bad bet. But my opinion, long term, a QB not named Fields is more likely to win a Super Bowl for the Bears. I dont see Fields' style ever working against good defenses. There's no evidence that he's improving as a pocket passer making reads in rhythm outside of the scripted opening plays. If it helps, if the question was reversed and it was would a rookie do better with Getsy or a new OC, I'd go with the new OC, so it's not like Justin is the only problem in my eyes.

There's an article in the Sun Times today about Fields, and it touches on a lot of things people have said about him here, good and bad, on the board. I'll excerpt and highlight the parts I think harmonize with the discussions we've been having, and the whole thing is linked below. I agree with all of it - the good stuff about Fields too. "Justin Fields has improved. That’s indisputable. Every highly drafted rookie quarterback is charged with the same task: Don’t stay there. His trajectory has been upward, and even in a performance like he had in the Bears’ win over the Cardinals on Sunday — completing 56% of his passes for 170 yards and a 71.5 passer rating while running for 97 yards — his overall progress is clear. He already is better than the last quarterback the Bears drafted in the first round, Mitch Trubisky, as well as fellow 2021 first-round picks Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. But the crucial assessment the Bears must make is whether Fields’ improvement is exponential and rapid enough. Even with all the surrounding turmoil Fields has endured, starting with former coach Matt Nagy having no idea how to develop him, he has enough of a body of work for general manager Ryan Poles to evaluate. There’s a lot at stake for Poles: his job. A general manager can’t inherit a quarterback one year removed from being drafted 11th overall, then get the No. 1 pick two years in a row as Poles is likely to do and fail to emerge from that sequence with a franchise quarterback. He must have so much conviction in Fields that he’s willing to bypass the chance to pick any college quarterback he wants — again. Poles has to weigh what he believes Fields’ ceiling is against what he imagines for college stars like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and a few others. It’s reasonable to predict Fields could, in a best-case outcome, develop into the 12th-to-15th-best quarterback in the NFL someday. It’s also reasonable for Poles to say he needs more than that when the Bears are trying to beat Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and at least a half-dozen others. That list grew by one this year with the addition of spectacular Texans rookie C.J. Stroud, whom Poles essentially passed on in favor of Fields by trading out of the opportunity to draft him. The Texans were almost as bad as the Bears last season — in fact, the Bears beat them — and now they’re tied for the seventh spot in the playoffs and Stroud is an MVP candidate. He’s ahead of Fields after only 13 starts. Fields’ 84.5 passer rating (21st in the NFL through Sunday) is a hair below last season and his 60.9 completion percentage (27th) is a hair better. His 191.5 yards passing per game (24th) is much higher than last season, when he was last among NFL starters at 149.5. He has supplemented that with 585 yards rushing (second among quarterbacks), a part of his game he and the Bears have said they want to scale back and replace with more passing production. The other top running quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Hurts, all average at least 220 yards passing per game. The Bears traded the top pick to the Panthers, who drafted consensus No. 1 pick Bryce Young. He hasn’t been anything close to Stroud. To ace that test, Poles would’ve had to keep the pick and gotten it right by taking Stroud first overall. It’s a lot to expect, but that’s the job. And he’s almost certainly about to encounter the same situation again after this season. The draft is wild. It’s murky and unpredictable. The teams that drafted Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell and Tim Couch — all No. 1 overall selections in the last 25 years — didn’t think they were getting it wrong at the time. And the teams that found quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy and Prescott in middle or late rounds surely didn’t know quite how right they’d gotten it until later. So if Poles knew he would land someone as good as Stroud, who already has six 300-yard games compared to one for Fields, there’s no doubt they’d make that upgrade. But it’s always possible the Bears will end up with another Trubisky instead. The Fields decision is complicated because he’s neither bust nor star. It’d be so much clearer if he definitively was one or the other. But he’s in between. He might go somewhere else and keep growing, whereas no one envisioned Trubisky doing that. But by default, not having the answer is an answer in itself. Teams that don’t know if they have the right quarterback usually don’t, and as the Bears near the end of the Fields’ third season and pivotal intersection of the 2024 offseason, there’s no way they could be certain of him." https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023/12/25/24014791/chicago-bears-qb-justin-fields-improved-but-development-exponential-rapid-enough-arizona-cardinals

For a while it looked like he was going to fall short of his potential, but the light has really come on for him this year. He's still pretty young too, only 24 years old. I think he's going to be a cornerstone for this team as we ascend into becoming a contender.

I got you, if you dont like those guys that changes everything of course. I still need to know more about them. I have a feeling Im gonna want Daniels or Penix, but it could all change after I know more than just stats and measureables, and actually watch some film. I also like your point about not getting cute. It's just if you have pick 5, you can kinda get cute. But as we fall, youre right. I had a dream of MHJr and new QB. Or one of those ridiculous trade down scenarios and still getting the right QB. But maybe youre right. If they love Maye or whoever, just take him.

the difference between 7 and 15 is that at 7 Daniels and Penix are still there, and by 15 they are both gone. Thats a huge difference because it ties up your top pick for QB, and you lose all these cinderella scenarios of trading the #1 (or 2) pick for a haul. It's a huge difference to our roster. https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2024

amen

thanks. good stuff.

I understand that point of view. Im sure you understand mine too. I was hoping we could get a QB with that second pick so we'd have that #1 pick to play with. To me, that's more valuable to the long term success of this team than this win, but again, i understand your point of view too. Either way we are both happy that Carolina is getting steps closer to having the #1 overall. I think that if there is a new coaching staff next year, the new culture will be built then. But i also understand how much people dont like hearing about rooting against their team. I really hope we are never here again. Then again, it's not like the title of this thread from weeks ago isnt 'Tankathon" lol so someone musta thought it! Anyway, I'm looking forward to resolution at QB and coach and starting next year with everyone aligned on this board with optimism and hoping to win each game in front of us. And if it is a new QB, with patience for them to have growing pains too. I'm not the negative person you might think I am. I just dont believe in justin or Eberflus anymore. I still love the team, and i still think we have a bright future next year.

yeah, i havent watched a lot of film, but I think Jackson, Mahomes and Hurts are all able to make reads on time from the pocket in addition to their other abilities.

oh in some ways it's gotta be both, and if I had an insider's view, I wouldnt be surprised if there was a lot of blame that Getsy deserves - especially on 3rd and 4th and short - it's been ridiculous at times this year. But Ive also wondered, if you had a QB that wouldnt pull the trigger, might you not call more rollouts and screens that have preprogrammed throws rather than reads to try to get the ball out of the QBs hands? But youre right, they probably know a lot more at Halas Hall than my guesses here. And my guess is that theres blame to go around.

agree

I think Moore was back, but he was definitely hobbled.

he had some amazing plays outside the pocket, but a bunch of read plays were late. same as always: Amazing, lacking and head scratching.

yes. for nothing.

and add Daniels and possible Penix to that list?

yeah, no matter what else is said about the QB or whatever, there have been a ton of short yardage calls this year that just absolutely boggle the mind. And those things are 100% on the coaching.

unless you think other GMs are suckers lol But I think Fields is worth a 3rd, possibly becoming a 2nd with performance or snap count clauses?

yup. And he is 6' 1" - If it wasnt for the injuries, Id be squawking a lot about Penix. Daniels has a lot going for him. And you dont need a #1 pick for those guys, but did todays win put another QB on this list out of our reach with that second pick? And take away our chance to trade out of #1 for a big haul?

I agree. If this was supposed to be an audition to show that Fields can execute the offense as intended, it didnt work. It was another example of how good Fields is at everything else. He really is. But it wont beat good teams in the playoffs.

true that. I also think it has to do with footwork issues.

exactly. I meant I want to win meaningful games, not these. Or if we were gonna win i wanted to do it in a way that showed growth at the things weve been poor at. And I was just makin' a pun on "draft position" - I agree with you.

Good timing pass to Moore.

we arent under center near enough. But why is that?