BearFan PHX

Boo!!! Me too. Go Bill! Thankfully Aaron Rodgers announced that he isnt going to return this year, so that should help too.

Absolutely. You always want to be developing the QB position, and others too. In this case, with Bagent on the team, I think we can skip that for this year at least. He's about the best you can hope for in a later round QB pick, and he has tons of upside that we havent seen yet. he is the perfect developmental backup QB right now.

This is all correct. And it isn't an opinion - it's what GMs have done consistently. When they took Brady, they werent looking for a GOAT, they had Bledsoe. Sometimes GMs get lucky, but it's not like it was their STRATEGY to find the goat in the 6th round. We might get struck by lighting, or win the lottery, but for most of us that will never happen. Facts. And thank you for posting it! The opinion comes into it when you ask for an eval on Justin. Some think he's great. Cool. I totally disagree, but if Poles thinks that, then he shouldnt draft a QB #1. That's where the opinion comes in. But the rest of this draft a difference maker in the 4th round is nonsense. It just is. The fundamental misunderstanding in the argument "a lot of first round QBs bust" as a reason to take one later is just insane. The stats are clear. 81% of first pick QBs become elite. 39% of first round QBs become elite - top 10 even better, and another 22% of first rounders are decent. This is all according to the Harvard 30 year study Ive linked here a few times, including their definition of "elite" - it's arbitrary, but it's a set threshold to measure by, and it's the same threshold for every player evaluated, so it does provide a relative score that all play under equally whether you like the word they use for it or not. It's a loaded word, but it's a mathematical outcome no matter what word we might prefer to use as a descriptor for their methodology. Adam also made the list of good QBs in the league right now. 75% of them were TOP TEN picks. These are facts, and they are self evident. The best athlete in gym class isn't the guy taken last. Everyone knows it. It's crazy that we even debate it. Yes, 19% of #1 pick QBs aren't elite. 39% of the rest of the round are busts. And that includes the whole first round it's better at the top of course. But 80% of second round QBs arent elite. Is that better? No its 400% worse than the #1 pick! That's math! The argument for taking a franchise QB later is basically saying "theres no sure thing in the first round, so Ill dramatically increase my risk of failing to address that smaller risk in the first round." WHAT?!? The argument that Fields is awesome is one I disagree with, but thats opinion. It isnt the same kind of WRONG as this STRATEGY to pick a franchise QB in a later round. It truly boggles my mind. Other than thinking Fields is the man, the other reason to wait to take a starting QB until later rounds is to make the online draft games more fun. You can get a lot if you dont spend that first pick on a QB. And that's really fun. I like Madden too. In fact, depending on how I end up grading out the rookie QBs, I might be cool with trading down the #1, or taking MHJr, and getting the QB with our second first rounder. All that depending on where we finish, and what I think of the QBs after I study them. But to me Justin is NOT the man. He doesnt make the reads in time. He does everything at a high level except the core job of being a QB. And I dont think you can ignore that, or win big games with that, so I'm definitely trading Fields, and taking a QB in the top 10 or 15 picks of the 2024 draft. This aint a movie, and no heroes ending to the season is gonna change the tape we now have on the guy. it is what it is. Fans can and will ignore it, but I think if you watch the film looking for reality and not a narrative, you gotta come to the same conclusion. It's there every week. I think Poles fires Eberflus and trades Fields this year. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll make it past next season as GM, and we will all be miserable next year watching the rest of the team develop and lose games because our video game QB cant make the throws the way they're drawn up. There will be lots of highlights, but no playoff wins.

wait for the QB hype machine to roll around in February lol If Poles can identify that and they actually fall there, then he is a hell of a Poker player. Id be scared theyd go too fast. When we see draft predictions in February etc, then we might have a better idea of what the common wisdom is anyway. Any one team might jump in early on someone too, but if we can hold our QB powder until then and still get one of those guys, that would be great - assuming we think that guys gonna be good, all the scouting and combine yet to be done etc

hahahaha

says the guy that got, what, SEVEN of them? LOL

I didnt realize that. That's good news.

Oh yeah, if you draft a QB this year and keep Eberflus on his last year with a lame duck OC that is just so Bears. Weve done that over and over. We keep trying to salvage a little of what we have and hamstring the next coach. We did it with Nagy and Trubisky, We did it with Fields and Eberflus. Remember when we tried to keep Lovies defense after he left? they didnt let the DC be a man and do his thing, they told him to be like a scout team Lovie. And we didnt clean house, we stayed loyal to Urlacher and Briggs a year too long. Locker room fell apart. New England traded a LOT of good players in their prime. They always found a way to replace them and stay on top. If you pay everyone, you end up dead in the water. Like college basketball, you have a star, but youre looking at your Freshman to take over cuz that guy is leaving. yes, you pick a couple core players, like Brady etc. But look at Akeim Hicks. We got him with a LOT of good football left. New England knew what they were doing. They knew he was great, but they knew they couldnt pay everyone and stay ahead of the clock. If we are going to be a great team, we have to be willing to let go of good players and coaches. And Eberflus is not special. He might be competent. but he doesn't give you an edge in winning. In any other business, youd promote Eberflus. Not to CEO, but he is solid, professional, doesnt make trouble. But in this game only 1 team wins and 31 lose, and a guy like Eberflus isnt rocket fuel. My point is they dont have to be awful to get rid of them. Fields isnt awful. Hes pretty damned good at a lot of things. But he aint it. hes not the center to build championships on. The best that is said about him is that if you surrounded him with perfection, he could operate. And then wed have to pay him like a core player? that shouldnt be the plan, and squeezing a couple years of this out of him more isnt it either. They arent the worst, but we need to take a swing at finding the best. QB and coaching.

yeah and there is some chance he might too. especially with a better OC. But as long as the guy we have at QB in 2024 is a winner, it doesnt matter if Fields is too somewhere else. That's the bet you gotta make right now with incomplete information. By the time you KNOW, it's usually too late, and you get to reset the rookie contract window on one side of the bet. Plus you have those top picks this year. We punted last year to give another year to look at Fields. Now we are here. Plus, and this shouldnt really matter, but Fields wasnt Poles' pick. It shouldnt matter, but people are human.

I want it to be stupid though. And honestly, if we trade down that #1 it might actually be stupid. Personally, and again, I havent done any work on these rookie QBs yet, so I may totally disagree with myself in a couple months, but today, if we are not sold on Caleb Williams, and want a guy like Daniels or Maye or Penix or McCarthy, and we can actually wait to get them in the middle of the first round, it might actually get this stupid. I suspect we will get a player with a trade down too, so maybe not quite so many picks. But damn, the future sure does look bright. I REALLY hope Carolina doesnt win again.

Thats about right i think. Thats how winning teams utilize running QBs for sure. I just dont think Fields can do the passing part of it. And if he did, I swear I would be his biggest fan.

Ha! thats insane! and its not enough to land Bowers, Nabers, Daniels and the rest, but you got Arizona's first rounder too LOL Could you imagine how crazy it would be if we had a draft like that?

for sure. Jones is great value for where we drafted him, but hes not a blue chipper. And of course you cant have a team of all blue chippers, so its really hard to know how to put a team on the field that can dominate. I miss that 85 team. I want that feeling again for the Bears at least once in my life. But if there is a sure path to it, I definitely dont know what it is. Oh, and as long as Im making wishes, I want it to last more than one year or Superbowl. I want a Bears era!

for sure. that's the magic sauce all the GMs are chasing. I hope Poles has a bead on it, cuz it's a pretty difficult problem!

does she know about the little boys? so lets see, youre in your 70s and you travel to thailand to f*ck a girl who is thirty years younger than you, and lives in a poor country. Im SURE shed be TOTALLY into you if she lived here and had a good job. No doubt. I mean youre so manly and stuff. Imagine how she must feel when youre with her. You probably repulse her. Poor thing.

were they underage too you little creep? See? you keep it going. You like this. Youve been a passive agressive little bully wanna be for years, and now everyone can see it. All you need to do is stop - but you dont, you like this. Its over little girl. Im not taking it anymore. shut up, or explain to everyone here why you need to create this drama you f*cking little impotent molester. No man here would take this from you. They just didnt notice it for years - you snuck it in, and people read over it. But now it's out in the open. And I am no ones bitch. You can hijack this whole board with your childish nonsense, or you can stop. They can see youre not stopping. This is gonna turn around on you real quick in a minute, cuz theyre gonna be sick of reading me talk back. Thai child molester. Disgusting piece of shit.

do it. f*cking do it. I know EXACTLY who you are you little thai hooker molester. I was looking at my messages the other day, and saw one from 2020 talking to someone about what an asshole youve been making personal comments. Three years? More? You got the wrong guy. You really do. Im not gonna back off one inch from you. Luckily your dick is so short I wont be anywhere near it. All this because you wanna keep saying your stupid little shit? You cant just stop? You need it? Do you love me? Do I remind you of your daddy? Im just getting started - this can get REALLY unpleasant for everyone here. OR you could shut up. Your choice. Anything that happens from here is on you - all you gotta do is shut up and quit speaking to me and about me.

Oh its personal as hell. Youre too dumb to even know. I said I wasnt gonna hold back anymore. You wanna continue this you little Thai sex vacation assh*le? Cant get laid without going to another country to pay for it? best you shut up.

SHUT YOUR LITTLE GIRL MOUTH and stop speaking to me. NOW. I dont give a sh*t anymore what you think. You know what you say and how you try to sneak it in like a little bitch. Im the WRONG guy pussy. Go take it up with someone else. Dont speak to me. I am not emotional or angry. I am telling you get the f*ck out of my boundaries. You're too close, and I can smell the cum on your breath and it's disgusting. Like I said, shut up, or this escalates until one or both of us is banned, and its just gonna make it suck for everyone else. No one wants to hear it from either of us. So SHUT THE F*CK UP.

Adam had a list of the best QBs in the league here a couple weeks back, and three quarters of them were top 10 picks. Every draft pick is a gamble, but you stand a much better chance of finding greatness in the top part of the first round of course. It's self evident. There are misses and hidden gems, but statistically, talent does stack up round by round.

If I thought the defensive success was due to Eberflus' coaching, I'd agree. But he's pretty vanilla, and if you see how the defense crumbles at the end of each game, where game long coaching adjustments have been being conceived, then i think it says that Eberflus isnt really why the defense looks so good. I think we look good because we have a good young roster thats getting better every week. I put it on the players. Any good DC should be fine with this group!

just shut up. Im done trying to say what I need to say without personally attacking you, since you cant hold back, I wont either. Youre a moron. You dont understand statistics, you whine like a baby when people criticize your girlfriend Fields. Your arguments are always full of logical holes. There are good arguments that can be made about Fields, you are just incapable of making them. Read others on this board who actually do a much better job of it. Youre a fan boy with a Fields #1 nightshirt. And you are that impotent little combination of bully wanna be and victim bitch. I couldnt respect you less. If you came at me, lets say at a bar, the hundreds of times youve come at me here with these same personal attacks and snide little asides, I'd pound you into hamburger. And youd know it by the look in my eye the first time you tried it little girl. Eat a bag of dicks and leave my name and words out of your little Fields sucking mouth. It's over. You either shut up, or Ill escalate this until either you or i (or both) get thrown off of this board. Capiche? All you gotta do is shut your f*cking little girl mouth.

it was in a Harvard research article I cited here a couple weeks back. it was an older study, so the numbers may have changed. And it only tracked QBs taken #1. All I can say is, if we make a smart decision, we should end up with a better QB than Fields. EDIT - found it - here it is. doesnt make it true, just means a #1 pick aint a bad place to find a QB. Ditto top 10 picks. https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/drafting-an-nfl-qb/

you need to return your psychology degree. youre being personal AGAIN. My problems with Fields are not related to a character flaw. You need to stop taking my criticisms of Fields so personally. Im telling you this over and over. Youve been throwing these little asides at me for quite awhile now. If someone else on the board did that, Id take in stride, because it wasnt a pattern. Im not so thin skinned. In fact about the first 50 times you did I didnt say a word. But the thing about bullies is they get more and more empowered, and I can tell you right now, you picked the wrong one. You dont know me, but you really did. So then i warned you, but you kept it up, so then I made a big deal out of it so others would notice. Then you played victim, and even had that whole fake thing about "if you guys need me to leave" etc. and then now were back here. So again i tell you, cut it the f*ck out - if you need to ignore me then ignore me, but Im not your bitch, and i will shove it back up your ass. I dont know what your mental image of me in your head is, but its wrong. You would NEVER EVER say this to my face. And Im not gonna let politeness here empower you to keep trying to pee on me. If I get removed because I refused to take your little insults, then that'll be the price I pay, but my self respect is not on the table here, and you are a total assh*le.

100% What i think confuses the issue is that Fields has some pretty spectacular "it factor" secondary QB skills. he's one of the best running QBs ever. But it isnt putting up points, it isnt winning games without the core competency of the QB position. So if you just watch the game on TV and see all these heroics, it might really feel like Fields has the "it" factor. But when you start taking plays apart, and seeing who was open and what decisions he made, then you start to understand why all these highlight plays arent translating into points and wins. So as a highlight reel, he has "it factor" for days, but in terms of playing QB in a consistent, reliable and productive (points and wins) way, then yeah, he isn't even close to it. So you keep hitting the "next" button until you have a real QB. First pick overall QBs are 81% likely to become elite. Now who that first pick should be - thats a raging debate that's just getting started and I havent done enough work to have an opinion on that yet. I promise I will before the draft