BearFan PHX

Agree on Foreman. I thought he would be the starter game 1. Also, I'm probably the boards' biggest Fields detractor, and I agree he had his best game this past week. Keeping Fields has more parameters than just how Fields plays though. There are serious salary cap implications that i think will cause us to take a QB int he 1st round and move on from Fields, even as he is playing better.

I agree with all of this, but i think it overlooks the most major part of his decision. We generally tend to think in terms of Fields performance, and trade value, and how good the rookies would be, but looming over all of this in the decision is the salary cap. If you keep JF this year, you're gonna pick up his 5th year option in May, and then you cant cut him, so theres no "wait and see how he does" at that point youre committed for 2 years and $30 Million on the salary cap. Signing him to a long term deal will prevent signing the rookie class that has Gordon and Brisker to long term deals. I suppose you could pay him $30 Mil for two years and then cut him, but there is no guarantee that we'd have a top pick to get the QB then. If youre the kind of person who thinks that a decent QB is good enough if you build around him, then with the salary cap implications you pretty much have to move on from Fields. If on the other hand, youre SURe that Fields is a top 5 QB, then you pay him, and whatever it takes. But you see what that's done to Mahomes in KC, and what it did to Rodgers in GB. Theres no $ left for a defense or someone to catch your passes. Brady routinely took $10 Million less a year than his worth in order to keep players around him. But hes the only one that did that as far as I know. So the wait and see on Fields is over. We are at a salary cap moment where we have to be sure now, and i cant see how anyone could be sure right now. So that, more than any other reason is why Fields is likely gone.

true!

yeah, theres some faulty math above, since we all know the best odds of getting a great QB come from early picks. I also agree with your analysis here DABEARS. Justin isnt currently an elite QB. There is risk down every path here. But one thing that is certain is that you need to make a decision on JF's 5th year option right after the draft this year. If you do that, you're committed to Fields including $25 Million for year five. You cant move on from him for two years. That isn't the free one year test drive that people think it is, because you have to guarantee his 5th year before training camp starts this year. We have a lot of young players but if you start looking out to 2025 and 2026, you see that youll be having real cap troubles getting everyone signed if you stay with Fields. And if Fields is Mahomes, then you try to make it work, but you can even see how that's working with the real Mahomes in KC. But yes if he is Mahomes, then you pay him. But if he isnt, youre buying a long term ticket right back to football purgatory where we have lived for decades. On the other hand, if you trade Fields, and draft a rookie, then you have plenty of space to roll with this team going forward and keep adding talent around him. Basically, if you look at the cap going forward, you have to KNOW that Fields is the MAN. If you dont, and I dont think anyone can say they do right now, then the financially smart thing to do is to draft a rookie. This is why Fields' performance in these last games isnt the biggest issue in determining his future here. The salary cap is. Sportwriters talk about talent. Fans talk about loyalty and hope. GMs talk about the salary cap, they understand the pressure of it better than anyone. If 100% of the GMs that responded said trade Fields, I'll bet they were thinking of the cap as much or more than JF's abilities when they said that. And to AZ54's point about QB hungry teams, they might also constitute a market for a Fields trade?

sounds like an easier game than it could have been, and unfortunately, it provides less of a test for our team too. While it's not JF's fault that the Browns' defense and team is depleted, it also removes a chance for him to prove more against a better opponent. He needs all the chances he can get too, because the decision about his future in Chicago doesn't just rest on his performances, but also he's already behind the 8 ball because of the rookie contract window that restarts if you replace him with a rookie, and there's nothing JF can do about that. On the plus side, it helps with this year's playoff quest.

I stand corrected - every little bit helps - thank you Adam

People were calling for it, but i dont think he was fired at the half - that would be epic though.

Raiders spanking the Chargers. both were 5-8 like us, but the raiders had the easier strength of schedule, so this helps us in draft position, and has no effect to our playoff chances either way.

Yeah we may go back and forth on Fields and the coaches, but besides all that, the arrow is pointing straight up for the rest of this team, it's easy to see. The OL, RBs and defense are all stocked. (QB?), FS, OC, DL2, WR2, TE2 - needs that are all fill-able in one offseason given our draft and cap positions. We are division champ contenders next year, and who knows where the ceiling might be then.

It IS that time of year, early learning curve is over, time to get it.

yeah he really is the best running QB ever. And he will end up with those rushing numbers pretty soon. You might be right, but of course there are other rookie QBs too. I'm paying close attention to myself about this one right now. I am in your camp about Williams. I need to watch more film, but I'm on the avoid Williams path right now. And Im watching myself, because if this is the next Pat Mahomes, then I need to learn from how I got swayed away from him, and if he busts, I'm gonna believe even more in the "play within the design first, then create when it breaks if you have to" evaluation mode. It's a real Ryan Leaf / Payton Manning moment in NFL draft history. I truly wonder what we will all think about Caleb Williams in three years. And who will Justin Fields be this time next year.

Jones isnt as polished and dominant as Wright, but he wasnt a top 10 pick either. I agree Jones is growing and doing well. And Wright is a monster and hes just getting started. I said it before the first regular season game: Wright will be a Hall of Famer. Add a center to this mix, and we've got a dominant OL for the first time in a LONG time. Thank you Poles. Speaking of new Centers, one of the leading answers, Miami Dolphin OC Connor Williams - the top free agency OC target - popped his ACL today.

All good points Adam. For me, it's less about the yards and more about what he does within the play. If he shows that, it would mean more to me than throwing a bunch of long TD passes on free plays for example? It'd be fun to see benchmarks like 3,500 or 4,000 yards, but I could envision scenarios where I'd want to keep Justin and he only gets 3,200 yards, and ones where he gets 3,750 yards and I want to trade him. Especially with his style of play. i think (or hope?) the Bears' decision makers are looking for growth in the pocket and not just more wow plays, which hes always had. Add those wow plays to consistent regular plays and you've got something really special. And we have started to see flashes of that too from Justin.

I think it was a case of long term vs short term thinking. It looked to me like Gipson was a better player than some we kept, but I dont think Gipson was ever the long term answer, and I think Poles was thinking that way - better to give reps to guys who might grow. Obviously none of them compare to Sweat, or the free agent or rookie we are going to get this offseason. Poles has been methodical and disciplined, with the exception of the first year when he was cutting dead weight, and took some flyers, especially at receiver. I think our defense next year is going to be top 5. At least by roster.

Before even the first game played this year, I predicted Wright will be a Hall Of Famer. I stand by it. He's amazing, and he's only just scratching the surface. Wait until the next couple of years folks. He's a friggin' monster.

Whatever you call it's what Fields needs to improve on to become a true dominant QB. And like I said, I saw flashes of it in the last game, so Im not even being negative about it. But we cant ignore that this is the skill he needs to improve on. Otherwise, we wont beat the good teams we would need to in order to win a Super Bowl. So rather than (and I dont mean just you, but all of us in general) just hanging our hat on the heroics, I think its fair to say that we should want to see growth in that area. And if he does add that west coast pocket passing skill to his skill set, then nothing can stop Justin at all. And that's what we all want: a dominant QB who can take you to the promised land.

I think it's tough to use stats to make the argument about Fields. The question isnt just if his numbers are improving, but if hes making reads in rhythm. Luckily, he seems to be showing flashes of that now too, so that's good. But if he throws for 3500 years off of broken plays only, he still wont be able to beat the top teams that way. The improvement has to be from the pocket too. And again, we saw flashes of that this past week, so good! But I just want to warn against the idea that, as a hypothetical example, a team is 30th ranked and then moves up to 15th ranked, that doesnt mean they will eventually end up #1 ranked. Moving up from the basement to the middle is something every team should be able to do in a rebuilding phase. But beating good teams requires a certain set of skills that arent necessarily part of ascending to 15th? To me the most hopeful sign of possible greatness was a simple 10 or 15 year throw to DJ Moore across the middle. It wasnt flashy, it wont make the stats looks great, but it was more important to me, than when fields does on the run, which he is great at. I just need to see more good games, because the specific issues with Justin, and fixing them, arent really captured in the stats.

numbers 2 and 3 are my favorites. Of course the TD to Moore was impressive, but Fields has always had a great arm, and he didnt have to worry on that "free" play. The ball placement on 2 is great, but to me the really good one is #3, showing what I hadnt seen from him yet - the one across the middle to Moore. Moore is NFL open, but he's not "wide open" hes just got body position, and Fields makes a FAST decision and puts the ball in just the right location. Any later would be too late. The throw is great, but it was the speed with which he pulled the trigger that excites me the most. That looks like a real West Coast QB, and we hadnt really seen that yet. If he can keep doing THAT, then he will be unstoppable. It's just a flash, but it's everything I've been bitching about this whole time. Just a simple route across the middle, West Coast style. The kind of thing Joe Montana and Jerry Rice made a living on. It's not flashy, it wasnt a huge gain, but it was basic QBing ON TIME and with excellent location. It's just one throw, just one game, Im not making any predictions, but for the record, that is what Ive been talking about. All the good NFL QBs do that. You can rave about heroics, and big plays - highlight stuff, but football is mostly about moving the chains, and that on time throw was as dangerous (to the opponent!) as any of the wow plays. If you can run the ball, and throw middle slants, you put the Linebackers into conflict, and when safeties come up to help, then that big stuff will be available much more easily. It's that kind of throw, that if you can do it regularly, will open the flood gates on scoring.

well thats the seduction of it, if you dont take a QB, you can play like it's Madden franchise mode and there are tons of scenarios.

for SURE

I dunno though. The numbers don't tell the whole story? A lot of these yards and completions are coming on broken plays, and the concern with Fields is playing within the design of the plays? So for example, you could have a QB who is throwing better than last year on broken plays, but that doesnt necessarily say that he is learning to read defenses better? I did see him do better this week at that, so there is hope, but I dont think those stats take that into consideration?

OK, after asking myself the question out loud I Googled and found this: "Sometimes the way that seizure medicines stop seizures also can affect how the brain works in other ways. Since seizure medicines lower the excitability of nerve cells in the brain, they can also affect normal activity. Cognitive problems - problems with thinking, remembering, paying attention or concentrating, finding the right words, or other symptoms – can be due to side effects of some seizure medicines. Some medicines may also affect a person’s energy level, mood, motivation or how fast they think or do tasks." It might not be something that would affect a normal persons day, but it might take a half a second off of an NFL QBs processing speed? https://www.epilepsy.com/treatment/medicines/side-effects

right, and for the really good ones, two seconds is not enough, but three is. It's a game of inches, but it is also a game of fractions of seconds. I'm not a Getsy fan per se, but I have seen many wide open receivers who were the first read, and Justin looking right at them and not pulling the trigger. i dont know why. I am sure that a fantastic coordinator could help Fields, but I have no idea if anything would bring him to the point of being a Super Bowl winner. But he did finally show some of it this past week, i admit. Let's see what the future brings. I think it's also worth pointing out that when Fields knew he had a free play, he had no problem ripping it to Moore for a long touchdown. i think that says something about his confidence in making these reads? When he knows there is no risk, the ball is out spectacularly with an accurate downfield throw. Something about not being sure what he's seeing is burning that extra half a second, and that's whats killing everything. This may have nothing to do with it, but I wonder if his epilepsy, or his epilepsy meds are playing a part in this?

to Justin's credit, I think he got misinterpreted with his coaching answer. On the surface, when he said "coaching" it sounds like he means "the coaches" but i think he meant something else. I think he meant "coaching points, all the things Im supposed to think about during a play" - so that wasnt a dig at coaches, but I think an honest answer to say what Ive been saying too, that reading defenses and understanding the plays quickly enough is difficult for him. I like Justin as a person, and he has amazing athletic and improvisational skills. The one thing I've said is missing, and this goes back to all the pre draft college analysis of him too, is that he doesnt process quickly enough. Hes not stupid, it's just incredibly hard to do this in tempo. Only about 20 QBs in the world can do it at the NFL level right now. If you give him, or pretty much any QB 6 seconds to throw, they are all Hall of Famers. if you give anyone less than 2 seconds, no one can make it work reliably. It's that 2 and a half vs 4 seconds where it all happens. Part of why we think Fields hasnt had a clean pocket is because he is taking that extra three quarters of a second to process. Another part of the problem is that receivers come out of their breaks, and thats usually the moment when they are going to be the most open. If you dont pull the trigger then, everything goes to hell. I also said that I FINALLY saw Fields make a few of those throws on time in this game. I'm not including the first drive of games where plays are pre-scripted - because QBs get a chance to really think about those plays before the game and do some "pre reading" Anyway, all of this to say that when Fields said that "coaching" was slowing him down, I think he was just saying what I've been saying about him, and I dont think he was criticizing the coaches at all.

Crosby and Sweat would be amazing, but in terms of pacing your salary cap, it's more likely we take a guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu with our second first rounder. That way as one gets older the other is peaking, and their contracts are not both coming due huge at the same time?