BearFan PHX

Im not sure they arent being targeted by the play, and Fields just isnt pulling the trigger. For example weve seen a lot of stats that that we dont use the middle of the field(!). But when I look at the all 22, I see receivers open in the pattern in the middle of the field, Fields looking right at them and then not throwing the ball. Later in the same play, Fields may do something amazing and get a first down, and we all call that a success. But the points arent coming, and the wins are against the bad teams. Im not here to defend Getsy, but Im not sure that the lack of middle field passes is on Getsy at all. Maybe Mooney would be better in rhythm.

taking a QB high int he first round is risky. Taking one later is much more risky.

I agree the Bears wont say anything. My "evidence" was what Fields himself was saying, which I assume is a mix of his own beliefs, and what his agent is telling him.

Yeah Lovie was making $5.5 Mil a year, and Eberflus is rumored to be making $4.5 Mil a year over 10 years later! - those McCaskeys... Let's give Harbaugh $15 Mil a year, OK Virginia? Maybe make that $225 Million cap you spend each year worth something?

Im guessing, but I dont actually know anything for sure. Just doing the sportstalk thing where you guess at the unpredictable future

I believe that they are all committed to their internal process. And so, until they've done the year review and heard from everyone that goes into that "no decision has been made" I am sure that is the official status, even if people (Poles?) already know what they think and could predict pretty well where its gonna go - who will say what points and what it will mean. Also if Eberflus is gone, Poles will NEED to have that process with the incoming coach, and so from that point of view, no decision could be certain. But you can bet Poles is, at the very least, doing his due diligence setting up lists of coaches and QBs for every outcome, so it's not as if his mind is a blank. He's well into it. But all that said, I doubt very much that Poles would tell anyone what he is thinking right now - least of all Fields or Eberflus. You never know who is gonna get hit by a bus or what and so you don't tell any employee they are getting fired in the future. You wait until the moment you fire them. So I suspect this is coming from Fields' agent to Fields. This is probably his guess at what Poles will do. And I'll bet his guess is a pretty educated one. he will have inside sources too. But they wont know anything directly either, cuz Poles surely isnt telling anyone else in the building what hes doing without telling the people hes gonna do it to first. No proof, just more dots to connect.

what is JF's 4th quarter rating for this season only? I have been giving JF and Eberflus a total pass on last year.

Fields definitely knows it - and thats a huge clue as to whats gonna happen. And I dont mean he knows it because he must know it because he must agree with my analysis. I think he knows it because of answers he's been giving in press conferences and interviews recently. This past week he said (paraphrasing) "I dont care about people who love what I can do, I only care about people who love who I am" - that's the kind of philosophical answer you never want to hear coming from the mouth of a 24 year old professional athlete. It's true, and a great thing for a 60 year old man to think as his power in the world may fade a bit, and he starts to consider what's truly important in life. It's also the kind of thing someone going through a divorce might think. It's definitely mentally healthy, but it's also a resignation of someone who is losing something. A 24 year old athlete oughtta be competitive and maybe even angry. Perhaps not to the TV cameras, but imagine Tom Brady or Mike Tyson saying something like that when they were 24. No way. And I dont fault him for it. I actually think it's healthy, I just think it comes from his agent telling him which way the wind is blowing. I see it as evidence that his camp doesn't think he will be retained. And if that's a fact to add to the puzzle, what does it say for Eberflus' future? Would you bring a rookie QB in to what might be the last year of a coaching staff AGAIN for the third time in a row? And what kind of OC can you really get when it looks like Eberflus might be gone after next year? I think the odds are that Fields and Eberflus are gone. I definitely dont know anything for sure. I just think it's a pretty good guess.

I also have a hard time thinking of Lamar Jackson as a Fields comp. They both run and create outside the pocket. That's why people compare them. And honestly, I love what Fields does outside the pocket too. He's amazing. It's in no way a detraction from Fields to me. The problem of course is that he doesn't run the plays the way they are designed from the pocket. Jackson does. It's not the running that's the issue, it's the lack of pocket passing in rhythm. The plays are designed a certain way, and if you rarely pull the trigger when the play is designed to get the receiver open, then it's just sandlot ball. And being a world class sandlot baller is great, for Fields AND Jackson. But you gotta also be able to play QB within the system. And Fields just doesn't do that the way Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and others do. If he did, or showed progress at that, I'd be a huge fan of Fields. But all these arguments of stats, or maybe thinking I'm down on the running obscure the question I'm asking. Can Fields run the offense as designed? And if not, how can we realistically think he will take us to a Super Bowl win? Some will say that we need a new OC (we do!) and that the new OC will put in an offense that works for Fields. Surely he would make use of Fields' legs, as Getsy has also tried to do. There will be rollouts and screens and plays that force the ball out of Fields' hands without making a read. Getsy's done that too. But somewhere in this new system, there will be plays where a QB has to take his drop, read a defense and let go of the ball to the right guy on time. And it doesnt matter what those routes are, I dont see any evidence that Fields will do that. So I dont really see Jackson as a comp. He shares some outrageous skills with Fields (JF is better) but he also has some core QB skills that FIelds doesn't. And that's what my issue has been all along with JF.

Well pretty much yes. I do think that we can become the 15th best team in the power rankings or so with Eberflus and Fields. But I don't mean to nitpick on language or anything like that. My main point remains, and you're right, I don't see us being a Super Bowl contender with this QB or Head Coach. And maybe more to the point, I dont see evidence that proves that right now. A lot of the evidence is going the other way. When Eberflus went for it on 4th down against the Packers instead of kicking the field goal, and he or Getsy decided to run the Kmet sneak, I called that strike one. Since then, there have been several more to my mind. I understand sometimes an opposing player beats you with a great performance, and sometimes the opposing coach gets the better of you with a well timed call "rock paper scissors" style. Good teams lose games, and once you get to the final four teams or so, on any given Sunday etc. But there have been so many unforced errors that I cant take Eberflus seriously as a difference making coach that gives us an edge on good teams. I do see improvement. I think a lot of that is the players, and perhaps the position coaches too. And Poles who got them. Everyone looks better with Dexter, Stevenson and the other rookie CB playing well now, and Sweat has added a missing piece that makes everything else look MUCH better. The LBs are playing well, Kmet is growing, Moore is great. The OL is looking better in some places too. Wright is a monster. There are reasons why the arrow is pointing up for us. I just happen to think theyd remain positives with another coach, and I dont really think Eberflus is doing anything that unconventional that another qualified head coach wouldnt give you too. Can anyone make an argument of something Eberflus has done that a competent coach wouldnt have? Something Eberflus has done that's special? With Fields, until he shows me playing within the plays, I think there is a definite ceiling on what he can do against top defenses too. So we could become the lords of the second tier. We could ascend to regularly beating the bad teams, and mostly beating the middle teams. But I dont think that improvement would ever peak above that with this QB and coach. And it's cool if you or anyone disagrees with that, because I have no crystal ball. I just havent seen anything that would tell me that is going to happen - not enough to bet on it? And youre also right that there are internal details we cant possibly know. Maybe Getsy is hamstrung by Fields, or vice versa. Theres a lot we dont know. But the unforced errors are still there to see, and they arent a matter of missing internal data?

all true, and the one year of punting not only costs you that top first round QB, but youve burned a year of contracts for the players youve just put together. And if we have another uneven mediocre year next year, Poles will get the boot along with the people he kept. I like Poles, and i think hes making good decisions, so I really dont see Poles keeping Fields around unless he's decided to pick up the 5th year and really commit to JF long term. And I personally think that's foolish. I can see why people arent sure on Fields. I think everyone thinks that to some extent. But we punted last year to see another year of Fields. And I didnt see anything that tells me this is the guy. Punting again just seems like being afraid to make a decision. And being in love with all the other things you could do with that #1 pick. This team is ready for an ascending QB that can run an offense as designed. It's time.

it's wrong, but youre right. the league gives preference for stars. They might not be having secret meetings etc about it, it might just be human nature in the ref's head. Whatever it is it isnt right I agree. I do think that when your QB has designed runs as a regular part of the offense, the refs will protect them less from slightly late hits, and call it more like they would with a running back. Especially in the case of a slide. We've seen some QBs fake slides, and when a defender is coming full speed, its not always possible to stop when the QB slides at the last minute. But youre 100% right that the rules need to be enforced the same for everyone.

I agree with all of this, except I'm not sold on Williams yet. I see a lot of intriguing QB prospects in the draft this year, and I havent put my marker down yet on who i think is going to succeed in the NFL and who will bust out. I need to do a bunch more work until Im there. But standing here, looking only at stats and social media, Caleb Williams scares me, and I sure dont like his anti Bears tweeting, the fingernail painting, holding the ball too long etc. I had that same bad feeling with Claypool during the offseason. People said I wasnt being fair to him. Maybe i wasnt. But he was the psychological turd I though he was. That doesnt mean Ill be right again, it just means I have concerns. Then again, people had non performance related issues with Warren Sapp, Randy Moss and other players I'd die to have had. So I gotta watch more film. Maye, Daniels, Penix and even McCarthy are all interesting to me, but I need to see a lot more film.

THIS 100%. This is what Ive been saying and it seems obvious to me. It's not the same as a guy who was 5-20 shooting and then elevated to 12-20. That guy youd wonder if he was gonna keep getting better. This is more like the 360 dunks keep getting better and the shooting stays 5-20. Tell me why Fields is a Super Bowl MVP, not why it's not his fault.

There are a few differences. First off, when new engineers come in, it is natural that they would need time to learn and grow - the same with rookie players. Head Coaches have been coaching in the NFL for many years as assistants and coordinators. They should be ready. They shouldnt be making so many mistakes going for it on 4th down when they should take a field goal, keeping your star defensive player on the sidelines in critical end of game situations because of "the rotation" and going into too safe prevents that give the game away. That last ones should already be known by any NFL coordinator on the same side of the ball before they are head coach for sure. The second point is that new engineers arent expected to be the best engineer youve ever had. In almost every business, competence is a good goal. If youre decent and a pro, thats great, youre valuable to the organization and loyalty is a great thing. But in the NFL there is one winner and 31 losers every year. You need a coach and leading players to be difference makers. They need to be a reason you have an edge over another top team, not simply competent. In any other business, Id keep Eberflus and give him a raise. Id help him learn and have patience for his ups and downs. Then again, new engineers dont demand $4.5 Million a year like Eberflus does. A better analogy would be CEO, or COO. You wouldnt stick with one of those that keeps making mistakes. At that level, they should already know what they are doing. I dont hate Eberflus the man. He seems like a good guy, and he's not a total idiot or anything. He's just an average NFL coach at best. I dont think he will ever be the reason we beat a great a team. And for me, that is good enough reason to fire him. Youre looking for greatness, which is hard to find, and you have to move on from just OK to find it. I get that loyalty is a great quality. It's one I like in my friends and work peers. It's how I'd like to be treated by neighbors, and how i treat people in return. But in the hyper competitive world of NFL football, it just doesnt belong. So when you hear me saying i want a new coach, it's not because Im an angry negative person who hates sports figures as a way of being. I know people like that. I dont like it either. I've been posting on this board for a LONG time, and I dont have a history or crapping all over players and coaches as a matter of style. yes I thought Nagy was a joke, and Trubisky was over his head. Didnt we all? I want to move on from Eberflus just because I dont think he is a positive difference maker, and I want to see the Bears become an amazing dominant team in this window of players. I dont want to squander it and be back to a year or two of ripping the roster down just to try again. I feel the same way about Fields. I want difference making winners in there. 6.5/10 isnt gonna cut it. It doesnt mean I think they are 2/10, it means I want 9/10 winner types (or better). If we get a new coach and a rookie QB next year, you will hear me having patience for the team to grow, and rooting for them to succeed. Im not the negative guy it may seem, but I just want change now having seen enough of Eberflus and Fields both. And Ryan Poles should be thinking about this too, because his job is on the line too if he sticks with these guys and it doesnt pan out. He's done a great job of making roster decisions so far. I DO see him as a positive difference maker. But this will be his biggest decision, and he has to get it right.

how many unforced errors can a coach make before you consider improving his position as well toward winning?

lol thats how it feels to me too - I dont get it.

and then he threw 4 picks. Being an NFL QB is HARD.

and he's huge! He runs like Frankenstein (I love that I read it somewhere. Was it someone here that said it?), but if he gets west coast body position on you, there's really nothing you can do to stop him from catching the ball if it's placed right and on time. He will be a play action slant and crossing monster when we run an offense again.

The defense is playing very well, and we are definitely not in the basement anymore. Moore had a good season, and we were pretty good in the running game. We're at 24th in power rankings, on the cusp between the bad teams and the middle teams. That's a huge improvement from where we were right at the bottom. Eight of 32 teams have been mathematically eliminated. At 24th, we'd be the next team just ahead of them, hanging on to the last rung of the middle tier. And that is good progress. If it sounds negative, it's not, it's an honest appraisal, and grounds for optimism moving forward.

Good QBs matter and are generally found at the top of the first round.

all true, Im not saying Stroud is a known winner, included that stuff to say that I admit making a QB draft choice is difficult. To my way of thinking, Fields is known (in my view) to not be the guy past a certain level. I know I want our team to go beyond that certain level. I admit that its really hard to know what you're getting with a new rookie QB. But it's also the only way to find someone who is beyond that level. So how to balance those concerns is hard, and I get everyone's take on it, whatever side theyre on. It just seems like Id rather take a chance on greatness than to stay with something short of greatness because I'm afraid the next one might be worse. It aint easy.

If we're trying to win the most games next season, then Fields could be the answer to the question. CJ Stroud might argue, but in general, it's not a bad bet. But my opinion, long term, a QB not named Fields is more likely to win a Super Bowl for the Bears. I dont see Fields' style ever working against good defenses. There's no evidence that he's improving as a pocket passer making reads in rhythm outside of the scripted opening plays. If it helps, if the question was reversed and it was would a rookie do better with Getsy or a new OC, I'd go with the new OC, so it's not like Justin is the only problem in my eyes.

There's an article in the Sun Times today about Fields, and it touches on a lot of things people have said about him here, good and bad, on the board. I'll excerpt and highlight the parts I think harmonize with the discussions we've been having, and the whole thing is linked below. I agree with all of it - the good stuff about Fields too. "Justin Fields has improved. That’s indisputable. Every highly drafted rookie quarterback is charged with the same task: Don’t stay there. His trajectory has been upward, and even in a performance like he had in the Bears’ win over the Cardinals on Sunday — completing 56% of his passes for 170 yards and a 71.5 passer rating while running for 97 yards — his overall progress is clear. He already is better than the last quarterback the Bears drafted in the first round, Mitch Trubisky, as well as fellow 2021 first-round picks Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. But the crucial assessment the Bears must make is whether Fields’ improvement is exponential and rapid enough. Even with all the surrounding turmoil Fields has endured, starting with former coach Matt Nagy having no idea how to develop him, he has enough of a body of work for general manager Ryan Poles to evaluate. There’s a lot at stake for Poles: his job. A general manager can’t inherit a quarterback one year removed from being drafted 11th overall, then get the No. 1 pick two years in a row as Poles is likely to do and fail to emerge from that sequence with a franchise quarterback. He must have so much conviction in Fields that he’s willing to bypass the chance to pick any college quarterback he wants — again. Poles has to weigh what he believes Fields’ ceiling is against what he imagines for college stars like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and a few others. It’s reasonable to predict Fields could, in a best-case outcome, develop into the 12th-to-15th-best quarterback in the NFL someday. It’s also reasonable for Poles to say he needs more than that when the Bears are trying to beat Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and at least a half-dozen others. That list grew by one this year with the addition of spectacular Texans rookie C.J. Stroud, whom Poles essentially passed on in favor of Fields by trading out of the opportunity to draft him. The Texans were almost as bad as the Bears last season — in fact, the Bears beat them — and now they’re tied for the seventh spot in the playoffs and Stroud is an MVP candidate. He’s ahead of Fields after only 13 starts. Fields’ 84.5 passer rating (21st in the NFL through Sunday) is a hair below last season and his 60.9 completion percentage (27th) is a hair better. His 191.5 yards passing per game (24th) is much higher than last season, when he was last among NFL starters at 149.5. He has supplemented that with 585 yards rushing (second among quarterbacks), a part of his game he and the Bears have said they want to scale back and replace with more passing production. The other top running quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Hurts, all average at least 220 yards passing per game. The Bears traded the top pick to the Panthers, who drafted consensus No. 1 pick Bryce Young. He hasn’t been anything close to Stroud. To ace that test, Poles would’ve had to keep the pick and gotten it right by taking Stroud first overall. It’s a lot to expect, but that’s the job. And he’s almost certainly about to encounter the same situation again after this season. The draft is wild. It’s murky and unpredictable. The teams that drafted Sam Bradford, JaMarcus Russell and Tim Couch — all No. 1 overall selections in the last 25 years — didn’t think they were getting it wrong at the time. And the teams that found quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy and Prescott in middle or late rounds surely didn’t know quite how right they’d gotten it until later. So if Poles knew he would land someone as good as Stroud, who already has six 300-yard games compared to one for Fields, there’s no doubt they’d make that upgrade. But it’s always possible the Bears will end up with another Trubisky instead. The Fields decision is complicated because he’s neither bust nor star. It’d be so much clearer if he definitively was one or the other. But he’s in between. He might go somewhere else and keep growing, whereas no one envisioned Trubisky doing that. But by default, not having the answer is an answer in itself. Teams that don’t know if they have the right quarterback usually don’t, and as the Bears near the end of the Fields’ third season and pivotal intersection of the 2024 offseason, there’s no way they could be certain of him." https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2023/12/25/24014791/chicago-bears-qb-justin-fields-improved-but-development-exponential-rapid-enough-arizona-cardinals

For a while it looked like he was going to fall short of his potential, but the light has really come on for him this year. He's still pretty young too, only 24 years old. I think he's going to be a cornerstone for this team as we ascend into becoming a contender.