Ha Grizz! I have no answer for that question. I can tell you that at least one of the top four QBs (Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Penix etc) is going to be at least pretty good in the NFL. I don't know which one(s) it's going to be. Poles has a whole staff of scouts and such to give their opinions. And the pros often get it wrong too.
I think you do all the research you can, and then rank them. If you have more than one tied or close to tied at the top, you trade down but only far enough to get to the last guy in your first group. If you have one as a cant miss, you can do what it takes - but that guy has to be grading out way over the others. Because at the end of this, you're taking a chance with a guy to develop. Their outcome isnt set in stone, a lot of it has to do with how you teach them, and who you put around them. And no one has a crystal ball.
Im sure by draft time Ill have more opinions about this, but right now I havent seen enough to put a marker on any guy.
What I can say is once I've seen a guy not be able to do it over a large enough sample size, then I know that pushing the "next" button is really the only choice you can make. You know about the guy youre moving on from - you have first hand in the building several years of working with someone, so as a GM you have your opinion, but you cant know much about the "next" guys. Those are lottery tickets, and sometimes they are even worse than what you had. But you have to keep "next"-ing until you find one that blossoms in your system.