BearFan PHX

Well I cant say MHJr will be Randy Moss, but if you knew it was gonna be Randy Moss, would you consider that WR at #1?

lol thats hilarious

Where Im at right now I agree about Williams and Maye. I do like Daniels a lot, and I need to watch more film. I agree we can get the right QB later than the first few pics, but Im not sure we can get them as low as the second round after the QB hype machine rolls through the combine etc. I personally think it might be smart to take MHJr with the #1 overall, and then trade #5(?) down to around 8 or 10 and get the QB. We might not get the bonanza of picks, but if we get a franchise QB and the next Randy Moss out of the first round, that wouldnt suck. Then you grab that Center, and then draft FS and BPA Of course this is all not knowing what Free Agency will bring either.

Patriots are the bigger threat now to steal it from CAR. It's so hard to believe the Pats arent gonna win like 3 games. Just so weird to see them so bad.

ha I was just gonna say that too The ghosts of Halas and Payton work in mysterious ways...

Oh I should add this too: As we all agree, JF has some incredible talents, and some areas are lacking. Given that, consider that Chase Daniel doesnt want to be seen as bashing Fields. He probably would like to do his analysis by being a QB guide, and not someone who rests on the negative. He wants to get clicks, and he likely doesnt want to be a traitor to his position unless or until someone is on their way out of the league. JT OSullivan walks a similar line too. He is always careful to give the benefit of the doubt, and when there are things to praise, that's where he puts his focus. And there are plenty of sportswriters on both sides of the JF question, just today Im seeing a bunch of articles talking about trading Fields. You can feel the media narrative starting to turn. My bet is in a month I'll seem like I was early on what becomes conventional wisdom? But whatever anyone thinks, there are plenty of sportswriters and former player commentators on both sides of this, so the argument of authority (an expert thinks X so they must be right over a non expert, which is a classic logical fallacy) doesnt work since there are experts on each side and cant all be right?

Oh, yeah, I was just saying please don't think I'm a NYer! lol I lived there way too long. Not a big fan of how it is currently there. I'll put your quotes here in bold italics, and respond to your points. Now with regards to your breakdown. You said every play you watched Justin missed a read. And you qualified it by saying you only watched the first 10 mins. I would agree to some level. It had been posted here as an example of what a great game JF had, and what I saw was a loss that became a win on one dumb luck blown coverage at the end, after he'd almost given the game away twice in the previous few minutes with fumbles, and hadnt managed a single touchdown all game. That's why I said "Bears win, we all lose" it felt to me like we hadnt grown or accomplished anything on offense, and just possibly pushed our draft pick lower instead. The defense has been playing much better since we got Sweat. We all knew the roster was short at least one good edge, and the before and after has been night and day. So feeling that way, I tried to watch the video, and after 10 minutes (4 plays) it felt so backward to me with Daniel praising broken and risky plays that had worked and Fields just didnt pull the trigger, I had to stop. And I posted that I had seen that and in every single one of the four plays I saw - and keep in mind i didnt pick these plays as bad examples, they were posted by someone else as examples of good plays - and I said that on every single play, Fields missed the read. And of course I always say too that Fields is amazing at broken plays, and in many of those same plays, Fields got the first down in heroic manner. That's why people like him I assume. That's why they are "highlight" plays. It's exciting. But it's risky, and it's great to have when -plays dont work, receivers are covered, pressure comes. But my thesis all along is that Fields holds the ball, passes the point where the ball should have been thrown as designed, and then has to do something risky - and often succeeds at it! I think that's all just true. So the question of opinion is whether you can base an offense on that. I say no. Some say yes. Thats all good. I still think the facts on those four plays are facts though. Let's get into it... Of the "four plays" you watched; I would think he did in fact miss at least one read (the first one). The others? Maybe not. There was something like 50 total plays to analyze and I can safely say (assume) he didn't miss EVERY open player. I'd have to see the others on all 22, and I know he didn't miss the many many screen passes. Those are timing plays with no read. He almost threw an INT into a DE's chest on one of them though. So I really do question his processing. And of course I'm not saying that he did miss every read in the game - this all stems from a one off comment where I said "I watched it for 10 minutes, and every one of the first four plays were examples of what Ive been saying and I couldnt watch any more." Then you challenged the statement, since it was a strong "every one" kind of statement. And I love that. That's specific and based on logical arguments and what makes these boards fun for me. So I was procrastinating doing something else I was supposed to do, and went down the rabbit hole. And I went back to specifically diagram and describe each play. Part of what I was looking for in your screenshots was to see what Justin was looking at or having to deal with while he was trying to read the field. Remember the part about him being blitzed nearly '60% of the plays'? That has to count for something. And in each one he has a clean pocket, an open receiver, his head is facing that receiver, and his hips are aligned to that receiver, because they were the first read. Minnesota does blitz a lot, but on those four plays, in the photos you can see all the elements I just wrote above. The pictures have a title on the lower right corner, so tell me in which one he was unable to throw? And like Chase said to be able to 'make magic' in those situations, should be considered. Fields is an awesome broken play QB. I always have said it. If you can add that ability to a guy who can pull the trigger on the intentions of the plays as diagrammed in a play that requires a read, then he would be truly unstoppable. I know that. But Fields' drawback going all the way to draft scouting from his college game is that he doesnt process. He holds the ball too long. He doenst run the offense. And also Ive been very clear that whether this is enough to have success is an opinion, unlike the facts of those four plays - what to do about it is opinion. I can offer that Fields' style has only won a small number of games, I can say that for 35 starts he has 35 fumbles. I can say that he's not putting up points. But the scrambling is great, elite, there is no doubt. In fact, the idea that he didn't turn the ball over more in the form of INTs is pretty incredible. When he doesnt throw the ball, and runs instead, then he fumbles instead of throwing INTs. 35 games, 35 Fields fumbles. While being rushed he 'read the field' the best he could and made plays while under some pretty remarkable pressure. In the four plays I am talking about he was not under pressure when the receiver was open and the play called for the ball to be thrown. Not once. For example, that one play where you thought Scott was open and Justin dumped it off to Kmet(?). I think Chase and AZ both said the same thing I saw. Scott was a bit further down the field and had a safety trailing him by a few steps. Justin probably thought (in the .5 seconds he had to analyze it) may have thought that was riskier a throw than was to dump it off to a surer handed Kmet. This is a terrible argument, and a huge reach. Scott is as open as any WR could hope to be in the NFL. The defender is not only FIVE yards away, but positioned opposite the angle of the break, so as Scott turns he has inside position as well as a FIVE yard cushion. At his break he is 2 yards past the sticks for what would be a 9 yard completion by stats if he didnt get YAC. Of course he was set to have huge YAC, but even still, a wide open cant wish it to be better situation. And it was 3rd down. Kmet instead was thrown later, and with a number o fdefenders on top of him. That is no sure 3rd down. More times than not you're punting after not getting the first with that throw. There was nothing risky about the throw to Scott. It's not even close. The defender was literally FIVE yards off him at the break where Justin is looking right at him. Daniel eveb identifies him as the first read. Then a minute later, says maybe being 2 yards past the sticks is a little deep. Thats crazy talk. Ive never heard anyone say that about an uncontested receiver. Thats a comment for when youve got a defender draped on you and you could have cut in shorter to get better position. But Scott was literally the perfect choice there. Justin just didn't pull the trigger. To those reading who doubt what Im saying, please go back and look at the screenshots I posted. It's all crystal clear. Had he thrown that pass (to Scott) and been picked (or missed) we'd be asking why he didn't go for a surer pass. (To me he's in a catch-22 in those situations). We're not talking about a 30 yard route here. Scott was the higher percentage read, not Kmet. Scott was an easy first down, and as the primary read, he was the POINT of the play. Kmet had to drag defenders with another miracle to get there. There was no threat of an INT on that play. He was much more open than receivers usually are when other QBs complete passes. I gotta say, when we get new coaches, and a new QB who can make reads, youre gonna see that these guys like Kmet and Moore are even better than you thought. Theyve been making first downs by incredible effort that shouldnt have been so hard int he first place. Their heroic efforts and Fields' heroic efforts are masking a huge deficiency in Fields' game. I get where your frustration has grown with what looks like he will never get over the hump of being able to scan the field. Yeah this is my worry. 100% He did more issues with that early on, but I think he's gotten better. Oh I think he's regressed. I think he was trying harder earlier in the season, and wasnt able to do it, so now hes playing "less robotic" and "freer" meaning caring even less about the reads, and playing more hero ball. HIs talent is undeniable. Exactly. He is one of the best hero ball players ever. His numbers are better because hes relying on that even more the second half of the season. And that goes along with having regressed at making reads. It's just we dont really see it because after be breaks the play he does amazing things and is often successful at more. It's incredible. Like Superman. But the debate (and this is the opinion part) is whether you can beat good teams with that style. I say you cant. others can rightfully disagree. But I think this IS the question, and the idea that he is making his reads is a false one. And what concerns me about getting another QB currently in the college ranks to replace him is I have a hard time finding anyone that has proven themselves to the level Justin did while in college. Oh hell yes. I cant tell you which college QBs are going to work out in the NFL. It's a big risk. The only reason Im confident in it is that I feel I know with certainty that JF will never win a Super Bowl in Chicago. That's the only thing I take as known in this, and it drives my decision. I cant tell you the next guy is going ot be the guy were looking for, or whether Bagent will develop and force us to realize how good he is, or whether we will be right back here in a couple years talking abut the next Bears QB. I know that doesn't mean everything when it comes to making it in the NFL but to me, that proves he can perform in the most challenging of atmospheres. Except this isnt draft day 2021. We've seen him in the NFL for three seasons now not performing. I mean the best you can say about JF is what you think he might change into. You cant seriously say that with a record of 8-27 that he has performed. What you can say is that maybe it wasnt his fault. The coaching, and talent around him werent good enough etc. But you cant say hes done it. It is not proven that he can perform in the most challenging of atmospheres in the NFL at all. Only that you might think he will in the future. Lastly. there's nothing wrong with wanting to 'defend this hill' if you feel passionate about it. Like Mongo said, I've 'been there done that'. I took some barbs for bailing on Trubisky, being a fan of Lovie's and exchanged heat with Jason over olinemen vs skill players. It happens. I trust you when you say you want Justin to succeed but you want a real strong plan A in place it doesn't work out. Yeah I cant predict the future, but nothing Ive seen tells me he will get better at processing and reading defenses, and throwing the ball on time or with anticipation. And I fully believe that is a fatal flaw, despite everything else. But yes of course I dont hate Fields the person. I kinda fell bad for him. He is so talented and seems like a really good kid. He works very hard, hes a good locker room leader. And if he was great, wed be in an amazing position going into next season. Especially not having to use a high pick on QB. I wish that was true. But it just seems so painfully obvious to me that he does not have that one necessary skill. In college the receivers are so open, it's hard to project to the pros. You can say the same thing about Caleb Williams the surefire generational talent! Who knows?! But too the main tiny point - I still think those four plays all show the exact thing Im talking about in about as stark a contrast as I could imagine. A lot of times things are grey, and it's hard to be sure. But that Scott play for example, which Ill post again below, couldnt be clearer. If you dont throw that ball because a defender is 5 yards away positioned on the wrong side of the break, because its too risky, then you cant throw any pass at all, they would ALL be too risky. The only receiver I saw more open that that was St Brown on one of the other plays I diagrammed! LOL But yeah this talk that I dont like Fields, or I want him to fail becaue I need to win an argument or any of that nonsense aint it. I just think the emperor is stark naked and it seems so clear to my eyes. Like Ive said, you dont see the receivers on the TV coverage as well, watching the game the first time, I tend to follow the ball, so I get how people see Fields running around making plays. But once you go back and take a minute with the all 22, this glaring weakness sticks out on almost every play that has a read, and you start to realize, sadly, that JF has a fatal flaw and there is no evidence so far that he's gonna fix it. Ill also say that he often looks like he has it beat int he first few plays of the games, when we are in the scripted plays. Justin can spend extra time thinking about them so his processing can seem better, like in Detroit. But once you get past that first drive, it's a lot of holding the ball and broken plays. And Getsy trying to force the ball out with non read plays like screens. Thanks for reading all of this. Play 2 to Scott below. At that frame, throw the ball. Look at Fields' hips and head. This is his read. Why isn't he throwing it?

4 is too few. 8 would have been OK with me too, but 12 certainly gets the job done.

Youre Good Grizz, even if we disagree, Im not mad at you in the least. Come at me with specifics, and it's all good

jesus. you wouldnt say any of this shit to my face. Id stick that hissy fit up your ass.

youve thrown enough of your weak punches, say what you will. i think it's OK if I dont engage. with you

Since you didnt take the time to rebut the last time I proved it, ill pass on the research project, but in truth youve said a lot of things that you then hedged on. So, yeah. I think it's best if I just ignore your "arguments"

well you dont need me to tell you that Im already done with him, but surely tthat's just my opinion of what the future holds, and truth be told, if JF is awesome, that would make me very happy indeed. I do worry that if JF plays well but not lights out, the sample size will be too small to trust, but if he is flat out amazing for 5 games in a row, that'd be something to consider. I just dont know when you get two high picks again. Then again, at this point (without having seen enough film on Williams and the others) I'd take MHJr with pick #1, and take a different QB either at #5, or trading down to #12-ish or something. I'm just pulling numbers out of the air here to be descriptive, I don't know what the draft scenarios are yet, but if you can drop down and take one of the good QBs later, Id look at that.

by the way, thank you both for this. Both posts are extremely reasonable. If it helps I wasnt feeling the "hate" from either of you guys.

Well I guess some have said they think I want Fields not to succeed so I can be right. Others have been sarcastic etc. But like I said, none of that will pressure me to change my mind on what my own eyes see on the all 22. But mostly, I just wanted to point out the difference between facts (Justin usually holds the ball too long until the play is broken and he has to do something heroic) and opinions (we should keep or trade Justin) - for me, I freely admit that what to do with the info is opinion, but to think that Fields doesnt usually hold the ball too long until the play breaks is just factually wrong. When I watch the game, and cant always see receivers downfield, it looks like Justin is busting his ass out there to make things happen, and doing incredible things. I totally get that. But when you look at the all 22, a different story emerges. But mostly what is infuriating is the illogical excuses that get made. They drive me crazy. Tell me Im wrong, fine. Prove it with some film or picture or something. I can tell you easily that i WISH JF would make fast reads - he has so many other skills that would make him unstoppable. But he hasnt progressed in this part of his game, he was actually better at it last year. But mostly, this isnt about my attitude, or what i want or dont want - none of that makes Fields hold the ball. I dont have supernatural powers or lucky socks or anything like that. I just see what I see, and I continue to be astonished that some other just dont see it! Now, as Ive said many times before, if you DO see it, but think that Fields heroic efforts are enough to win, then I cant say thats wrong. That is an opinion, and we are all entitled to ours. I cant predict the future, no one can. But for Gods sake, saying that Fields doesnt hold the ball too long, and doesnt have a problem pulling the trigger is just a fantasy. It couldnt be clearer at this point.

AMEN. My Dad and I have the same thing too. We watch the games separately and call each other 3 or 4 times during the game, and we always reference the same plays and see them the same way. I have said repeatedly that JF may be the best broken play QB ever. But it doesnt translate into points or wins for the most part. It's not an offense. Thank you Mongo. Sometimes I feel like I am in crazyland here, and the "hate" at this point i feel from most of the group is palpable. Its not the first time in my life that ive gone against popular opinion, and int he past Ive been rejected for it, and proven right afterwards, and funny enough, no one ever remembers me as having been right when that happens, just that I wasnt "with the crowd" - and im fine with it. I couldnt ever lie in order to get along with the mob. In this case, the emperor is stark naked and it's incredible to me to see the twisting and changing of stories that goes on to hide it. So it is very helpful to see at least someone else sees it too. Thank you!

thank you, and despite his claiming that he is never personal, his comments (like this one above) are FULL of sarcasm. At this point to say that Fields doesn't have a problem holding on to the ball is just silly. Id entertain diagramming those 16 plays, but since I put in 90 minutes doing it once before and no one bothered to specifically rebut the work, other than AZ pointing out that Scott was 5 yards past the line to gain rather than 2, I will skip even trying. And to AZ's point, Scott was running at an angle, and when he was open and Fields ready to throw, he wasnt 5 yards past the sticks, that was only a beat later after Fields had already turned away from him. But either way, if a QB cant pull the trigger on a guy who is wide open for a 12 yard pass for a first down (7 yards to the sticks, plus AZ's 5 to be generous) then he isnt an NFL QB.

Of course I wish her a fast and complete recovery. That's a very bad hand, and I hope the very best for both of you. As to the route, if it was 5 yard over so be it, but he was wide open for the first down and Fields didnt pull the trigger and found a riskier later option. All Im saying is 1) Fields doesnt pull the trigger in rhythm when then the receivers make their breaks so the play ends up a broken play all too often 2) Once the play is broken Fields is a superhero that makes plays almost no other QB can make, maybe no other I wouldnt base an offense on that, but I see the genius. It's fair to disagree about that, that's opinion. But simply the fact that he doesnt throw to the receivers in tempo in his progressions is true. Whether thats OK or not is opinion, and good people can and do disagree about that?

Im kinda thinking that Dexter will be good at 3T, but if someone better comes in, thats only good for the team, and if they are as good, that builds up the rotation. Also I think Eddie Jackson is gone sooner than that, and we will replace him this year - possibly a good target for Free Agency, even though i havent looked at a list of who is available.

I definitely agree that Poles has done a lot for this roster. I am very optimistic about our future next year. I know we may have disagreements about QB and Coaching, and those are the two most significant pieces of the puzzle, but those things aside, looking at the rest of the roster, we had a VERY good draft last year, and I expect another good offseason this year too. I dont know who Warren might have in mind, but on his own merit at least, Poles deserves to stay and I think he's done a great job. I think our main needs are QB, OC, FS, WR, Edge, TE - no reason to think we cant address all of them this offseason and be a playoff team next year, even if we have a young QB. I am looking forward to resolution on the QB and coach thing so we are all on the same page again here. With new blood you will find me optimistic and patient as it takes time for players to grow. We will all be wanting the same thing then, and I am looking forward to that. But we can already agree that there are a lot of pieces here on our roster already, and you can see the defense, and offensive line are coming together nicely. Also, even in a year with not so much offense, you can easily see that DJ Moore is a STUD. and Kmet is growing too. If we can count on Jenkins to stay healthy he looks like a pro bowler, and I think Wright is already playing at that level. Davis is a mauler, and Jones continues to grow. Foreman is great too, and we probably have the best "backup" RBs in the league. Johnson is gonna be really good too, at least in the rotation. On defense it's great to see how well all the rookies are doing. Dexter is looking better every game. I was worried about his slow get off, but I see that getting better every game, to the point where I dont see it at all anymore. Amazing. He is extremely powerful, and will only get better. Both corners are playing well for rookies - remember Gordon and Brisker last year - it took half a season for the light to come on. Now they are a strength. And Edwards is killing it, and I still think Edmunds is gonna be amazing too - I dont love how we are using him, but we saw a taste of his freakish athleticism and speed this past week too. Sweat is one of the best players on the team. The defensive improvement can be traced directly to the week we got him. With some kind of pass rush to make QBs throw the ball at least in tempo, the secondary suddenly looks much better. THere are other good players too, and special teams etc. All this to say that i think if we fix a couple big problems, we are suddenly going to be a lot better with a trajectory to be a contender after that. I hope that i can rejoin our community here in agreement when that all happens.

Except the Bears have to decide on the 5th year option by May of the coming year. That's the problem. And if you dont exercise it, then Fields is unhappy and might hold out for a trade. And then youre trading him anyway, but after the draft when there are no suitors or available draft picks and the value is lowest. They pretty much have to make the decision on Fields this year before the draft.

I think all of this contributes as well for sure. I agree with all of it.

nah, my personal feelings dont come first, Fields' performance comes first. What I said wasnt subjective, it was what the tape shows. Fields holds the ball too long and doesnt pull the trigger when receivers are at the breaks in their routes, he makes plays after the pay is broken. Thats not because Im negative or anything, thats just what Fields does. It has nothing to do with me.

I didnt pick the plays. Were you the first one ot post the video as evidence? I just watched it and couldnt make it past the first 10 minutes because it was just exactly what i said it was, so I said so, then Grizz asked me to cite my point, so I took the time to make that long post with screenshots and timestamps. So i didnt pick those plays, but they prove exactly what ive been saying, at least for those four plays - and its not really debateable on those four plays, I posted all the receipts and they are just facts. Doesnt prove anything but those four plays. But i didnt pick em, they were offered as evidence of the opposite view and i think i debunked em. Fields is being given receivers open in rhythm and he just isnt pulling the trigger. Over and over. And the he does magical things when the play is broken. he might be the best to ever do broken plays. I get why he looks like a hero to people - but he isnt reading defenses. He isnt throwing the ball on time. Its in the tape if you watch it. And he isnt getting better at that part of his game. He was better at it last year.

I want to add this too: A lot of things are opinions. Answers to questions like "Should we keep Fields?" "How good will Fields be next year?" "Is an offense based on broken plays viable?" those would all be opinions. But "DJ Moore ran a 2 yard out" is not an opinion. "The closest defender was 5 yards away" is not an opinion. Etc. I respect all of the people on this board, and we will agree or disagree about opinions. The things I've said above are facts. I gave timestamps, and screenshots. I was specific about everything that was a fact. And it was just four plays, not the answer to any of the big questions, which are complicated enough that those would all be opinions. So it isnt you say potato I say potahto - its more like I say Moore was open at the sticks and Fields looked right at him and didn't throw the ball. And that happened. there is no subjectivity to it? So there is no disrespect for anyone's opinion here. You can still agree that that happened and still think we should keep Fields next year. I cant say that is wrong. I can only argue why i think it's a poor bet. But THAT is an opinion and I respect everyones here. And to anyone that took the time to actually read what I wrote above in the four play post, i appreciate your time reading it.