BearFan PHX

I think we might use the top pick on MHJr and grab a QB with the next pick. I don't really want Williams (subject to change as I do my research this offseason) and from what I know now, Id be happy with a few of the other choices, which means no need to grab a QB with that #1 pick.

There are examples of every strategy working and not working. You cant say that Lance flamed out in SF because they sat him first. You cant say he would have been successful if they had put him in right away. You have to look at statistics and trends. In general, it does seem to be the common wisdom in the NFL that the rookies dont start week one, and generally are starting by week 8. That goes for rookies who play really well and for those that dont. Its just what almost always happens. The reason is that most rookies arent ready week one, and if youre gonna spend a first round pick on a player, when you think hes ready you want to see him. It sounds like now youre trying to protect Bagent. I get that once someone is a Bear you love them, but you gotta be smart. If we pick a top first round QB, theyre going to pay eventually. Im gonna make this easy so we dont have to go back and forth for the next 7 weeks. 1) Eberflus is gone after this year. 2) 70% Fields is gone after this year 3) 90% we will pick a rookie QB in the first 20 picks 4) That rookie QB will start a game by week 8 at that point, once we have all that data we can debate whether Bagent has grown enough to actually be better than the rookie or not. And youll have to give the rookie the same grace you give everyone else - a decent chance across multiple games to show himself and grow. That's what's going to happen. i think everyone knows it.

I would expect that would be the plan. If Bagent kept winning, then you'd keep the rookie as second string for a while. But at some point during the year, youd see how the rookie was doing in practice, and if you determine that he will be better than Bagent, then you start the rookie at that point even if Bagent is still playing well. Remember if you use a top first round pick on a rookie QB, your plan is eventually hes gonna be the guy, and as soon as he looks like it in practice, theyd make the switch. Mahomes sat the whole year behind Alex Smith. That would be the extreme example. Usually, by week 6 or 8, the rookie is in.

^5

Stinger, the good news is that after this offseason is over and training camp starts next year, you and I will be 100% aligned in optimism and patience for the new thing whatever it is.

Yeah, the OL has been playing really well. If you can trust Jenkins not to be injured, we have a really nice group. We obviously need to pick up a center, and some might say we need a LT if a really good one is available to us, maybe in the 2nd round. But there is no denying this unit could grow to be one of the best in the NFL. Our RBs are competitive too, and DJ Moore plus MHJr would give us a hell of an offensive roster. Harbaugh loves to run the ball. You can see that McCarthy threw half the number of passes as his peers on that list above, and they win every game. I think we should all watch the Michigan / Ohio State game this weekend - battle of 11-0 teams, should be insightful. MHJr too.

I dont think Justin is the problem. I think the coaching is the problem, if there has to be only one. This is more Eberflus' fault than Justin's for sure. But I additionally think that Fields isn't the guy to take you to the promised land. I see the talent and athleticism, but I'm still not seeing enough quarterbacking. And to keep Fields - not for another year tryout, but to plan on keeping him as the guy, youre gonna have to pay him big, and that will be a huge mistake in my opinion. Fields is fun to watch, and he is heroic. He improvises and his best plays are broken plays. But you cant live on that edge without losing your share too. Play a team with a good defensive front, and that can turn into a bloodbath quickly. I dont think you can make a living out of what they call "hero ball" - it takes a team, and that takes a QB. I used to tell a joke about Jay Cutler. It was that when Jay Cutler was little he dreamed of making an impossible 80 yard last second touchdown pass to win the Super Bowl. When Tom Brady was little, he dreamed of being up 35 points late in the 3rd quarter. I think Fields is dynamic as hell, but doesn't do the core job of QBing. He is a point guard, but not a top 10 QB to me. But for sure, we would have more wins with Fields if Eberflus and Getsy weren't running things. But could we regularly and reliably beat the good teams in the NFL with Justin? I don't think so. That chart tells me you don't need to go hog wild to get Williams. It tells me we might be able to get MHJr AND a great QB in this years draft. I havent settled on a name yet, but one intriguing idea is Harbaugh and McCarthy stay united and bring their collective 23-1 record to the league. They sure do know how to win together. What would that look like with our fearsome running game, and McCarthy executing Harbaugh's offense with Moore and MHJr?! That's just one scenario, but there will be others. We have a bright path forward.

OK here are some stats side by side. of course stats don't tell the whole story, you need to watch film on these guys, and I haven't yet. Still what pokes out is what a winning combination Harbaugh and McCarthy make. What also jumps out is that there are a bunch of good QBs here, at least by the numbers, and if we could take MHJr with the top pick (or slide down to #2 for him etc) we should be able to pick up a very good QB at #5. By the numbers, McCarthy sure does check a lot of boxes, but you can see that Williams and Daniels have been very good. look at some of those ratings. I never saw one over 200 before. But 6' 1" aint great, so if someone else wants Williams and we end up with MHJr and McCarthy or Daniels, especially with Harbaugh as coach, I think that would be amazing.

if he does, tell him to trade Fields too LOL

Exactly. I dont dislike Eberflus, he seems like a nice guy. he is a terrible coach though. It's like Mother Theresa or Ghandi. Who could hate them? They were amazing humans who brought love and a measure of peace to the planet. They were giants. But they would be terrible as army generals. None of this is a slight against Eberflus the man. For example, I consider myself to be a good person too, and despite all the stuff I know and have learned about football, I would be WAY over my head if I was the head coach of the Bears, and I would hope you would argue that I should be fired. If you care about the team, if you want to win, then you care less about the players and coaches and more about the process. For example, should the 49ers have kept Joe Montana a few more years? He was a football God who brought them 4 Super Bowl wins. But there came a time when it was best to move on from Montana, even though he was still good enough to start for Kansas City. They went another way, and the result was that the Steve Young era happened. Should they have gone with loyalty instead to Montana, and missed the window for Young and the Super Bowl HE won for them? So you gotta ask yourself in that situation, are you a fan of Montana the man, or the 49ers the team? They are in direct conflict with eachother - sometimes it's gotta be one or the other. Looking for positives when we are dead last in the league is an extreme form of this. I get that you are an optimist Stinger, me too in my daily life. I love stories of redemption, I believe positive outcomes are at hand in most things I do, even when things get tough. We are probably very alike in that way. I dont judge friends and neighbors the way I judge Bears players and coaches - because I dont require the level of discipline and excellence that is required to win a Super Bowl from my friends or family. That'd be insane. But at the same time, if you want us to stop being a joke of a franchise, people need to be held accountable for their performances. Looking for hope in Eberflus at this point, and giving him one more year is futile and misguided. I'm sure with more draft picks he might even achieve a 10th ranked defense or something. Incremental improvement is almost guaranteed when you are historically bad. But I can tell you this with 100% certainty. Matt Eberflus will never coach the Chicago Bears to a Super Bowl win. There is zero chance of that. If Poles doesn't fire Eberflus, then Poles should be fired too for gross incompetence. So you gotta ask yourself whether you are a fan of Eberflus the man or the Chicago Bears the team. I'm optimistic that the Bears can be great again. I'm positive about where the future is heading for the roster. I believe that with a new coach and QB this team can rise and become a contender. Im not being negative at all. We just need to get those two positions right, and I dont believe we currently have the guys to get it done at those positions. But I believe we will in the future. That's not pessimistic or being a hater, but it does require that the staff be replaced. And we will all have similar discussions about Fields too.

the defense is still 29th in the league in allowing scoring worst at stopping 3rd down worst in the red zone what youre seeing is just that the defensive roster has some talent now. that they are still ranked like that means the coaching is terrible

OK so why did Mr DC call so much predictable zone in the 4th quarter? And why did he not have Montez Sweat on the field when the game was on the line? Why are we 29th in the league in stopping teams from scoring? Why are we the worst team in the league on stopping teams on 3rd down? Why are we the worst in the league in the red zone? Eberflus is terrible. Terrible HC, terrible DC. It's not debateable anymore. The numbers aren't vague. Eberflus is a terrible DC. This same roster on defense is going to play SO much better for the next guy.

Just for the fun of it, here are the top 10 coaches of all time by winning percentage. 1 Guy Chamberlin .784 (coached the canton bulldogs in the 1920s) 2 John Madden .759 3 Vince Lombardi .738 4 George Allen .712 5 Jim Harbaugh .695 6 Tommy Hughlitt .694 (coached Buffalo in the 1920s) 7 Blanton Collier .691 (coached Cleveland in the 1960s) 8 Ray Flaherty .684 (coached Washington and the Giants in the 1940s) 9 George Halas .682 10 Don Shula .677 and the bottom 10 189 Marion Campbell .300 (coached PHI and ATL in the 70s and 80s) 190 Joe Bugel .300 (coached Arizona in the 90s) 191 Dave McGinnis .298 (coached Arizona in the 2000s) 192 Pat Shurmur .292 (coached CLE and PHI in the 2010s) ---- THIS IS WHERE EBERFLUS' 2023 .227 record is 193 Jimmy Phelan .271 (coached NY and DAL in the 1950s) 194 David Shula .268 (coached CIN in the 1990s) 195 Gus Bradley .226 (coached JAX in the 2010s) ---- THIS IS WHERE EBERFLUS' career .214 record is 196 Steve Spagnolo .212 (coached STL and NYG in the 2010s) 197 Hugh Jackson .205 (coached OAK and CLE in the 2010s) 198 Bert Bell .179 (coached PHI in the 1930s)

Dude. They keep losing games. They keep going into large prevent zones and losing games they should win. They are 29th in the league in opponent scoring. 30th in the league for opponents points per play. And we are dead last in the league in opponents 3rd down conversions. We are also the league worst in opponent red zone scoring. We are #2 against the run, but that's because we are in the mid 20s against the pass. Now I do believe that this defensive roster has talent, so youre gonna see some bright spots here and there, but Matt Eberflus is a clown not a coach. He is incredibly predictable, and it aint good. I get you're a nice guy, and you want to stick up for the team, but in this case, getting this loser as far away from the decision making of our team is what's best for this team. We shouldn't be sugar coating this any more. It's not about what he might pull out in the last couple of games, he is a total failure, and we have to move past him immediately after the season is over. This is as bad as it gets in the NFL. This guy is worse than Nagy. By the numbers he is the worst coach in Bears history, surpassing even Abe Gibron. In fact, while Matt Eberflus hasn't yet coached the requisite 40 games to make the list, his current .214 winning percentage would put him 4th to LAST of ALL NFL COACHES OF ALL TIME. Going back like 100 years!! Just FYI Jim Harbaugh is #6 all time on that list with .695. Matt Nagy is 85th at .523 There have been 198 coaches that coached at least 40 games in the NFL in history. Eberflus has coached 28 games. If you dont count last year, and be generous, he is .273 at 3-8, Each was against a low ranking team. One was against the worst team in the league. And it was CLOSE. (and as an aside Fields had nothing to do with 2 of the 3 wins!) And this year's record alone, .273 would put him 6th from the bottom of the list at #193 out of #198 coaches in the entire history of the NFL if it was his career numbers. Remember that's being nice and keeping last year out of it. Don't tell me the guy is good. It's nonsense. He is one of the worst in NFL history. Almost THE worst. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/

First off, the coaches HAVE to be gone. Anyone saying Flus is a good DC must be watching a different game than I did. Flus took a 98.4% chance to win and blew it in the most fearful and predictable way. Everyone knew it would be cover 2 on 1st and 2nd down. Everyone. I knew it a month ago. We all did. And then the Lions said "thank you for being predictable, we have plays to beat that" and we just watched it happen. Hell imagine if the vaunted cover 2 had given up 4 more yards against the Panthers before Pinero missed that 50+ yard field goal. No one can say at the beginning of the drive "my zone reliably gives up 60 yards but NOT 65" - it's idiocy. Also, Montez Sweat was on the sideline at the end of the game, because Eberflus believes in the rotation. Seriously. Sweat only played 65% of the snaps, meanwhile Aiden Hutchinson played 97% of his teams snaps. Are you mad yet? Do you think this clown is a qualified NFL ANYTHING? Assuming we have a new head coach next year, he will have input in keeping Fields or not. So will the scouting department's assessment of the QB options available. But you nailed it on the head, Adam - Fieldsball means a lot of QB runs. It means a lot of magical sidearm throws on the run. Neither of those things is sustainable. Run the ball 10 times a game all season, and you'll get your QB hurt. And if you need to have everything be chaotic before you can make a play that isnt sustainable either. I mean - who has Fields beaten? How common is it for Fields to win? When it's working Fields looks like a superhero overcoming incredible odds to make sportscenter highlight plays. But that cant be your regular plan. Because some games, you get sacked 8 times. It never looks like a calm QB who has the offense under control. Fields is an incredible athlete, but he is more of a point guard than a QB. You cant be a team who's core competency is wildcat and win regularly in the NFL. Fields' record is 6-26 (19%). He is 1-5 (17%) this year (not counting the loss to the Vikings). Bagent is 2-2 (also not counting the Vikings). And Bagent is a rookie future backup. I don't understand the optimism around Fields or Flus. Neither one of those guys is going to win a super bowl as a starter/head coach. Honestly, the only guy I think will reinvent himself into a winner in the future is Getsy. He's been terrible here. I dont know how much of that is Flus' direction. He makes a lot of bad choices, but i do also see what he is trying to do sometimes, and it seems like he has a brain in there, he just needs to gain more experience. It wouldnt shock me to see him great in 5 years. But it wont be here.

as long as they fire them in the offseason, so be it. But it sure is painful to watch.

he seems friendly, and un-threatening. He also seems like the kind of guy that would go along with political correctness, which I think is mutually exclusive with being a hard headed winner. I think this is just STILL the impact of the McCaskeys killing this team. HR probably LOVES the guy. How many super bowls has the HR department won?

Yes. He is a fraud. So were Nagy and Trestman. They're good talkers. Theyre SAFE from the point of view of Halas Hall. Win the HR trophy, lose on the field.

Matt Nagy?!

Ha Grizz! I have no answer for that question. I can tell you that at least one of the top four QBs (Williams, Maye, McCarthy, Penix etc) is going to be at least pretty good in the NFL. I don't know which one(s) it's going to be. Poles has a whole staff of scouts and such to give their opinions. And the pros often get it wrong too. I think you do all the research you can, and then rank them. If you have more than one tied or close to tied at the top, you trade down but only far enough to get to the last guy in your first group. If you have one as a cant miss, you can do what it takes - but that guy has to be grading out way over the others. Because at the end of this, you're taking a chance with a guy to develop. Their outcome isnt set in stone, a lot of it has to do with how you teach them, and who you put around them. And no one has a crystal ball. Im sure by draft time Ill have more opinions about this, but right now I havent seen enough to put a marker on any guy. What I can say is once I've seen a guy not be able to do it over a large enough sample size, then I know that pushing the "next" button is really the only choice you can make. You know about the guy youre moving on from - you have first hand in the building several years of working with someone, so as a GM you have your opinion, but you cant know much about the "next" guys. Those are lottery tickets, and sometimes they are even worse than what you had. But you have to keep "next"-ing until you find one that blossoms in your system.

It is possible that Poles has already determined that Flus is gone, but just doesn't see any benefit of bringing someone else in as a caretaker since there is no DC and the OC is worse than the HC. So while it is bad enough to have reached the decision point to fire him, it might make sense to wait for the end of the season to do it?

Im just saying, today, it wasnt so much Justin's fault. It was the coaching. He did a few of the things Ive been waiting to see, so I have to be fair and give him his due. But yeah, I dont want him going forward. I hope we can get some kind of trade value for him.

Fields definitely increased his trade value today.

Where is Yoko Ono when you need her?