BearFan PHX

sometimes you have to let the players fall to you. If we thought Trubisky was head and shoulders above the rest, then yeah, you trade up to get him. But if you think they are in the same category, you trade down and let one fall to you. And in that equation you gotta include the fact that you're 50% likely to be wrong. So letting the last guy out of a leading pack fall to you is probably a better idea than trying to get the first choice of them. And again, all that assuming you dont have a clearly superior grade on one player. But given the questions around Trubisky at the time, how could you?

Thank you. I read they were undefeated in an article, which was obviously old news. I appreciate the info.

yep, there are always exceptions, but it cuts both ways: Fields could ball out this year and suck next year, or he could be terrible the rest of the year and be great somewhere else too. you never KNOW the future, but you can make some pretty good guesses at it. For example no one expects Trubisky to suddenly be great, and I dont expect Fields to show me skills he has never shown me in the NFL before. Its not certain, but its a pretty good bet.

well we may not see that the same way, but i will look for what youve said in #3-#6 when I look at film. And if he does get to the playoffs, we will see how he is there too, and if he doesnt, he wont be undefeated anymore LOL

how do you know? LOL He didnt play in the same system as Mitch, has twice as many games and is a different kind of QB. Now I havent watched Maybe enough to endorse him. So if you have some substantive criticisms, Im all ears, and wont even disagree with you. Ill take those and think of them when I start watching film on these guys. But just that he went to NC? Didn't Michael Jordan go there too? LOL that doesnt mean anything either of course.

prototypical size 6' 5", extremely strong arm, fast decisions, ball comes out quick, pocket passer, has increased his level of play every week this year and is undefeated this year - making a run at college playoffs. That's what they say anyway.

exactly

this is where Im at too. Maye, Penix or McCarthy, possibly after a mini trade down. Sure would like MHJ too...

That's a very good observation. Maybe why the Ryan Leaf's of the world flamed out. for sure

the odds go waaaaay down after the top first round picks though. Youre pointing at some that have succeeded, but youre not factoring in all the ones that didnt. in the end, you gotta do your work and decide who you think the best QB is, and whether there are any others tied with them or not. And then you gotta pick on from that group, and none of them will be around in the 2nd round. If they are, you gotta fire your scouts.

To me that question has already been answered, but I admit they do have the remaining 7 games no matter what. I also think that the incoming new coach will be given the decision on Fields. No reason to cut him loose until you have your new coach and he tells you what he wants too? So there is a potential scenario where you keep Fields with a new coach. Like maybe Harbaugh says "are you kidding? this guy is a super Kaepernick and I know JUST how to use that?" But I don't really see that as likely either. I have been on record as saying that you cant keep Fields if you draft a Caleb Williams, its just too tough on the locker room. But then again, with a new coach coming in, he could certainly say that it'll be a competition starting from scratch. I guess I could see that now. But all of that is predicated on Fields balling out, or the new coach thinking Fields will ball out for him, and from my perspective I just dont see it. But sports is funny, and stuff happens. Id probably have said Kurt Warner was done when he was carrying boxes in a warehouse too. But I think your main point stands. Flus and Fields are both fighting for their jobs, and neither one can really succeed unless the other one does too.

yes, i think Sanborn is a really great player, but he cant really run with receivers or fast TEs. He's OK in zone, but in man he will be exposed, and that means no blitzing, unless it's him that blitzes. he reminds me of Hunter Hillenmeyer or Nick Kwiatkowsi - all tough nosed competitors, and all a step too slow. He can play SLB, but I definitely see him coming out in Nickel. The other question will be if or when Sewell is ready to challenge him?

the point isnt about the first pick vs the second pick, its about the top of the first round vs the rest. And it's about the percentage of excellence found in the top half of the first round, vs the bottom half vs the rest of the draft. It may only be 50/50 in the first 10 picks, but its MUCH worse than that after that. If you're gonna take a QB to ride with as a hopeful franchise player, you evaluate the top options. Teams have different grades, so one team may see their most highly rated player be the third guy taken at that position - but it'll still be high in the draft. So yeah, if our staff thinks its Penix or JJ McCarthy, as the best option, or as a tied option with the others, then taking him at pick #5 is GREAT. But youre not gonna get anyone in the 2nd or 3rd round. not reliably, not statistically. And certainly not the top (or tied for top) QB in that draft by your own measure. For example the Patriots didnt have Brady highly ranked either. So they got lucky, but they didnt strategize that. But if we have them all grouped similarly, then its ok to let them drop a bit. Another example: I cant understnad how the Bears had Trubisky far and away above Mahomes. I would think they were closely ranked to eachother. Maybe you have Trubisky by an edge because of the perceived weaknesses of Mahomes at the time. But if theyre at all close in your rankings, dont trade UP to get one. You fall back and let luck decide. Now if you have Trubisky WAY over Mahomes, then you do what you have to to get him, and they did. And the coin flip came up tails. So trading down for a QB isnt a bad thing at all if you have them in a closely ranked group. But you can only fall far enough to get the last guy in your top group, and that will be way before the 2nd round?

Who are the top 5 QBs in the NFL right now? And where were they picked?

yup. we have a good amount of cap room to spend in free agency. Id sure love to see MHJr on the Bears, but we need line help like you say, and we need a QB too in my opinion. Line help can come in lots of ways - free agency for sure, and you don't need a top 10 pick to get a center or interior lineman. I do agree that for a franchise left tackle yo do need one - unless we plan on moving Wright there next year? Id love to see MHJr and one of the top four QBs in the draft, and I agree entirely that those holes on the lines desperately need fixing. Hopefully we can do that in the 2nd and 3rd round and in free agency? Id love a top 10 pick at QB, WR, OT, DE, 3T, CB but of course we're not gonna get all of them. Still this offseason should leave our roster stocked. Now we need a coaching staff that knows how to use them.

me too. I still don't think it will be enough to beat the Lions, but it will be good to see what the plan was. Thats if they have the balls to actually open it up and show the plan instead of trying to micromanage a win from the sidelines.

it was great coaching. they had a limited QB, and didnt try to hide him, but instead they found ways to open him up. That's the exact opposite of what our coaching staff seems to do - they limit things to simplify for the QB, and that's never gonna be the path to greatness.

There are a lot of great players out there. Marvin Harrison Jr looks like the next coming of Randy Moss. Id LOVE to have him. but WE NEED A TOP PICK QB. Its not a want, its a NEED. If Poles can take MHJr with Carolinas pick (or trade to 2 to get him) and then pick up a QB with the second pick in the top of the first round, then fine. But we NEED TO DRAFT A TOP FIRST ROUND PICK QB. And there is no avoiding that. If the scouts and Poles determine that one of the QBs is head and shoulders over the rest, we need to take him first. If they rank some of them evenly, and you can still get one at #5 or something, then great. We also need new coaches.

The argument that you can more likely find NFL ready QBs further down in the draft is silly on the face of it. Dont mistake the hit or miss quality of drafting any QB with thinking that you find better ones later. It's ridiculous. You are definitely more likely to find a stud QB in the first 10 picks than you are to find them after that.

QBs that you pick later in the draft have a MUCH MUCH lower chance of being NFL pros. I get that everyone is seduced by all the players you could get by trading down the first pick, but I think Poles has to take a QB somewhere in the top 10 picks of the 2024 draft, depending on how they have them all graded out. This fantasy that youre gonna get a guy in the 3rd round who will be great if Fields stumbles is just not gonna happen. Like Ive said before, I appreciate everyone's loyalty to Fields, but he's not the guy, and the guy we need is found at the top of the first round of the draft. now which one of the top 4 QBs is it? that's the tough question.

I had thought it was based on last years finish, but I think youre right. Thanks for the info.

yes thats my understanding.

Yeah, that worries me too. This is what I think too. So the million dollar question is: which QB is the right one to pick? And I am SO glad that isn't my decision. Maybe as we see more tape and I do more homework I'll start to get a guy I want to hang my hat on, but right now, I'm damned if i know who it should be. We just need to draft a QB in 2024, and he needs to be great. No pressure.

of course. If a team has no pass rush its going nowhere too - for pretty much the same reason. And you need an OL to stand behind. Im just saying there must be that top notch QB also. And if you are a GM, and youre putting together a team, QB has to be the #1 thing you need. Pretty much the most important things to get right are, in order: QB, Edge, OL - the rest you can fill in and find. Those are the holy trinity of the NFL.

Id love to have MHJ, maybe you trade down the other pick and get a second tier QB in the second half of the first round? Someone like JJ Mccarthy? And you dont do it because you want MHJ, you do it because your staff thinks JJ is the man, and youve read the market well enough to know that you can still get him at #10 or whatever. Its such a gamble.