BearFan PHX

I'm just waiting for equity in the NFL where no matter how many touchdowns you score (or dont score) every game ends in a tie.

I guess that if Claypool just needs a couple weeks until hes ready to go, this makes sense because it opens up a roster spot. With all the rumors and expectations swirling about us signing an edge rusher, if Claypool needs a minute, this allows us to sign someone and still get those couple of weeks to evaluate whoever is on the bottom of our 80 (is that right?) man roster. So even if Claypool just needs a minute, this lets you have your couple weeks of training camp to look at the bottom of your roster without having to get rid of one guy before you really saw him, and instead to see a bunch of guys to decide which one goes when Claypool comes back. Given that Claypool looked healthy working out with Fields recently, Im not too worried that Claypool is all that injured. I am still worried as to whether he can become a WR2, but that's a different question. This PUP doesnt really concern me at all and makes sense.

Fields did enough at Ohio State for us to laugh at anyone calling him a running back. He is definitely a QB. A lot of NFL QBs never get over the hump to greatness. They are still QBs though. Fields is on the threshold or trying to break through that ceiling. That's a fine place for him to be. I wouldn't bet against him ascending. At the same time, as we've all said a million times, he didn't have protection or anyone to throw to last year. There is every reason to believe that even 2022 Justin Fields would have looked a lot better with this current roster. And he is better than the guy that started in 2022. But of course he has to do it on the field before it counts. That's fair. But to say he is already a bust (looking at you Colin Cowherd, ya hack) is just stupid. I can't say that he will become a top 5 QB in the league. No one can until it happens. But if I had the choice to betting that Fields will become that, or taking a QB in this past draft to roll with, it's an easy choice to go with Justin. If by some chance Fields is no good, we can look for a QB next year. But we would be fools to trade or cut him now (or back in March) as he is just on the cusp of breaking through. But national media narratives are all about what has already happened. So we are a 3-14 team that lost 10 in a row to them. They vote Eberflus the worst coach in the league. They say Fields isnt a good QB. All they can do is regurgitate what they saw last year on the scoreboard and stats. They dont even interpret those stats, or try to figure out why they were like that. They dont know anything really. And, should Fields rock the league this year, the national media will do a Cinderella story that simultaneously sounds like a Hollywood movie (which brings eyeballs and $), and justifies their current narrative as having been the true story. Theyre fools for clicks and eyeballs. Justin's gonna be great.

At the end of all of this, it could be that Poles spent a 2nd round pick just to help evaluate Fields in the 2022 season. And he didnt get much of that from Claypool. If Claypool is a bust, I'm gonna say that Poles took a risk when he was down to try to figure Fields out, and it failed. I have a lot more confidence in his draft and free agent choices since he got into the building phase of the franchise. Even if this turns out to have been a bad bet, you can understand why he made it, and also WHEN. This was before Poles starting building his team. I can give Poles a pass on this one for sure. But id love to see Claypool come back and make me eat my words. But in truth, Ive thought he was a bust for a while now, and i havent really seen anything yet to show me Im worng.

interesting angle. Being a good GM is all about relationships, and there is no better way than to fill the league with proteges. I hadn't thought of this particular benefit, but you're absolutely right. Good one.

I saw an article about Yannick Ngakoue today where he has apparently changed his tune from wanting to go to a contender, to wanting to be on any NFL roster that will have him. That's his new public stance as of a couple days ago (or sooner) I guess. Im not saying whether we would want him, or hes a good fit or anything. I'm just noting it as evidence of how this is the week that players soften their asks. Poles obviously didnt want to pay top dollar and long term deals to anyone that's available or he already would have. If Nick Bosa or similar had been available, Poles would have signed him early in free agency. So we know that everyone on the available list isnt int he long terms plans of the Bears, and it might take until this time in the season for some players to accept the kind of deal that Poles probably wants to offer. And like i said earlier, if you have two or three guys rated evenly, you let the market pay for the players on that list until the last one you wanted is the only one left, and then you pay them less than the guy that went right before them. That's just being fiscally responsible. All this to say that I do expect them to sign an edge rusher in the next week or two. I wouldnt be shocked if it was Justin Houston, but Poles has shown that he surprises us too, so I'll just wait and see who it is.

I think they have a list of guys they will roll with but not overpay for, and Poles is being patient, and will sign the last guy unsigned that is still on his list for the least $.

right. the way I keep thinking of it is that a lot of these names are gonna be All Pros, and heroes in our Super Bowl run, but first they need to learn to play in the NFL lol and a few arent on the team yet. Baby Bears!

and as boring or grind-y as that may sound to some, it also means the passing game opens up which in turn just helps the run even more. Watching the LOS move forward is a beatiful thing, and if we can run to both sides now, it's gonna be really fun to watch. Ive been saying for a long time, I dont want a team that stumbles and lucks into anything, i want a team that dominates. We had a taste of it in 1985, and ever since then, i want it again. This OL should be able to run block for sure, and you win a lot of games that way in blue collar style. Bear down!

tells you what a big deal home field advantage is, since Vegas gives you 3 points for being at home.

This is why PFF is a joke. Whitehair is our best lineman? I cant see how any human being watching tape would think that. That HAS to be a well meaning but deeply flawed algorithm - and thats really what PFF is - they create these analytical tools, and if the tools spit out results like that, theyre broken.

God point Jason - Vegas is seldom that far off, and we are gonna be in a lot of games. I think we go somewhere between 7-10 and 10-7, and given that the arrow is pointing up for us and we are ascending, I think it will be on the better side of that - just sniffing around 9 or 10 wins and a possible brief playoff appearance. Although with a slow start it could be 7 or 8 wins too. Anyway, I think you have it right.

Im very enthusiastic about the future of our DTs. I'm also very enthusiastic about our coverage. But i dont see our current DL being able to bring the pass pressure necessary to stop modern offenses in the passing game. I do think we will be good against the run. I do think that Edmunds will close off a lot of those deep middle routes that have been killing us on third downs. I just think that until we have a real stud at DE, the pieces wont be enough to reliably beat good passing teams. And if you give any QB 5 seconds unmolested, they look like hall of famers. I expect us to beat the teams we are better than, but if i thought that we could bring reliable pass pressure, then I'd think this team could go deep into the playoffs by the time they gel in December. I dont think we are there yet though. The two biggest reasons being getting young players experience, and having a legitimate pass rush. It's coming, but right now we are incomplete.

Youre right that weve upgraded a lot on defense, but witho0ut consistent pressure from the edge, the defense can only be so good. Until we get that, we wont be a top 10 or even top 15 defense. I share your optimism for the growth of this team, but we are not yet complete, and lack of pass pressure is an easy way to lose a lot of games.

I dunno how you can predict the opening game where half our roster is new, and no one knows how Jordan Love will be.

right! It really shows how bringing in Poles and Warren and removing Phillips and McCaskey is going to make a huge difference. It might not be easy to see, but Phillips and the McCaskeys ruined us for several decades.

right. a lot of these guys are the names of All Pro players in 2024 and/or 2025, but right now, they are football babies.

that is so crazy. I hope it all changes soon.

exactly. Poles has shown the discipline not to fill holes with players who dont fit his long term plans. He isnt drinking the "we're close and another piece could put us over the top to be a contender this year" the way other Bears GMs have forever. It's hard to stay disciplined, but its how you build a consistent winner. But putting 7 out of 10 guys on 4 year deals doesnt help you, because you have no room for the 9 out of 10 player unless he is your first round pick. Poles is doing it right!

I suspect that Poles also looks into out-of-the-box answers, like unlikely trades and such too. Im sure that in doing his due diligence, he finds the price too high a lot and so we never know who all he might have been looking at. But there is at least some chance that the answer at Edge will be an unexpected one, and there is conversely a decent chance that he wont sign anyone at DE of any import too. I'm just saying the options and outcomes are much wider and more varied that we might think - even if we end up signing Houston for a one year deal at the end of all this anyway.

Looking into this more - Adam's projection - 230 yards per game is just slightly above the NFL average passing yards per game (21-22 season) of 223. That's not pie in the sky, it's just average. Our (my?) perspective as a Bears fan has really clouded my expectations for the passing game. Adam's not reaching, if anything he could be underestimating, or the RBs and TE2 etc will make up the rest.

i guess I cant argue with the potential of DJ Moore to break 1100 yards and 4 TDs. But If Mooney gives us 800 and 4 TD, Claypool gives us 500 and 4 TD, and Kmet gives us 500 with 6 TD That's 2,900 yards and 18 TDs. I feel like thats more reasonable. But then, I see your numbers broken down into per game numbers, and they look entirely reasonable. To average under 250 yards and 2 TDs a game seems right. And my numbers would be 170 yds, 1 TD per game, and that definitely feels low. Maybe Im being thrown off of the big numbers here because there are 17 games now instead of 16. or maybe Im just a Bears fan and think that have two WRs over 1,000 yards is fantasyland because I'm not used to seeing it. So my thoughts are at first blush i think you aimed too high, and then broken down it seems quite doable, so yeah, that's our offensive potential, sure. I think you nailed it.

yeah this is how I see it too. A lot fo these guys are gonna be the guys that contend for a Super Bowl, but first they have to learn how to win in the NFL, and a few of them (next years top picks) aren't on the team yet!

I disagree. Even if Fields breaks out, this team is going to run the ball, and I dont see a 4,000 yard passing year for Fields. If he DOES throw that much, we are in real trouble. Also, making a run for a wildcard spot, or even winning the division because other teams fail isnt the same as being a top 6 dominant team. We are not going to be that in 2023, no matter how much we come together. For example, two years from now, Tyrique Stevenson may well be a serious shut down corner with league wide attention. But this year he is going to be a rookie, and he is going to make mistakes. Think of last year how Gordon and Brisker looked in the first half of the season. He has a lot of talent, and he is going to make plays, but he is also going to make mistakes and learn. Ditto on the D line, where some positions dont even have the rookie who is going to ascend on the roster yet! Will Claypool grow? etc We are relying on a LOT of young players to grow. And they will, but this is not a team that's gonna make a run in the playoffs. 10 wins and a playoff loss would be an excellent outcome for this team for 2023. Give this roster two more first round picks and a year of experience, and it's a whole other thing. That's 2024.

I think a lot of the pieces of the 2024+ run are in place. They need to gel and grow, that can happen faster or not as fast. Un,ikely but possible to start peaking this year, especially in December. One thing that's going to be lacking though is the pass rush. And that's a big thing. Add that piece, and we are half a year ahead. This roster, plus two more DEs: a dominant DE and also another pretty good DE, would be ready to contend on paper. A lot of younger players still need to grow into their roles, but they are the guys we are going to war with. At that point, you can tinker with another WR or TE, maybe another player in the secondary, but your core would be set. Without those DEs, especially the first round star type, it's a very different story. They probably come in next years draft. but who knows whether someone already on the team ascends to be that pretty good DE, and I dunno who we might acquire before the season starts. The smart bet is that the window opens for real in 2024, but we have a bunch of the pieces here already, and who knows whether they might catch critical mass and be a team in December? I also klnow we need a swing OT, but that doesnt really affect our status as contenders per se. I say 8 wins, maybe 10 and a possible short lived playoff appearance.