BearFan PHX

I think he is likely to draft a DE high, maybe VERY high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pays a real contract for a guy like Marcus Davenport if he is available too. He has a ton of $ to spend on the DL, like $50 Million dollars. So he can do a lot there.

and once you get through the blue chip players, which is extremely fast, you're left with players who have some good attributes, and some shortcomings. So then it matters what your scheme is. Some teams will rank some players higher because they have the traits they need for their system (accepting the drawbacks from that player that they dont emphasize in their system) and other players will prioritize different players because of their strengths and weaknesses. For example, we dont need a shut down corner. We wont spend big for a stud in man coverage. we will look for ball hawks who can play in a zone scheme. Everyone picking a top 5 player is looking for a complete player, but after just a few picks, it changes, and then each players value is relative depending on what the team needs from that position. Long winded way to say, hell yeah there will be players in the 3rd and 4th round we can use!

It also already includes ($116M worth of) players signed to deals, like Whitehair's $14 Million for example, and others. There are cuts that can be made to free up even more space.

it really is like nothing we've seen before. We are, for all practical purposes, an expansion team, except we have Fields already. I agree with almost all of this, but I expect more on the OL. Also, I keep reading articles about how the Packers want to move on from Rodgers. One article even suggests that getting his salary off the books is a necessity for the Pack. But the thing is, they JUST signed him, and if they cut or trade him this year, they take a $100M hit to their cap. It's not even possible. It'll be fun watching the Bears get the all time series vs the Pack on the right side again. It'll be fun watching Packers fans learn what a real football team is like when you dont have a top 20 all time QB. They have no idea. Welcome to the era of the Bears. We are gonna take the North and never give it back!

Yeah, he had no protection, no targets. i think you can say that he is a better QB than the comparables, which puts him right around 25th QB in the league or something. I think he will grow in 2023 and add a significant passing threat to his playmaking, and then the sky is the limit for Justin. But he has to do it, and until he does, it's a guess on my part, and I won't believe it until i see it with my own eyes. But I would say he is the best bet we can make right now. i expect him to become a monster. Let's go Justin.

"put it on my bill"

I feel the same way - especially if we get extra high picks, and a 2024 first rounder

Oh yeah, I didnt mean just the Bears. I meant in general in the NFL draft. Drafting 8th would be great (for the exact reason you mention - trade value!). I just dont want Carter if he falls to #8, Id rather take someone else. But to your main point, Poles bears zero responsibility for the Bears front offices that came before him for sure! And I agree I am expecting him to be MUCH better than the guys who came before him. You mention the Cubs and Theo, and they also bit the bullet and had some purposeful bad years to gain the capital they needed to win a World Series. The analogy is a really good one, and we survived this year to get here, now let's cash in the chips for the right players and get after it!

And Brady got passed over into the 6th round. It's true. But it's not so much flawed logic, as it's the exception that proves the rule. Players that are expected to go in the top 5 and fall are often not so great. They're still a steal in the 2nd round, but often not high first round material - which is why a consensus of GMs let them fall before you. I'm not sold on Carter. I guess that's why I'm saying this now. If Anderson fell, I wouldn't be making this argument at all I suppose. But maybe that's because I don't think Anderson could fall, and I guess that's my point.

I don't see Anderson falling past #4 (at most!), and if Carter is there at #6, I dont want him. Ive seen that movie before. For years the Bears picked around #8, and every year a top 4 guy fell, and often we took him, and then found out why the other GMs passed on him. There is a long list of names like that that we've taken over the years.

what if the scouts love one of the other guys? Im just saying, it's like war - you never have enough info, and you have to make bold decisions. I dont know what Poles thinks and what info he has. I also think that there is some smaller benefit to a GM to start the rookie contract clock over. I dont think that would be enough to make you choose one guy over another, but there are multiple concerns and options. Its a highly dynamic situation. But if you want my best guess? Fields stays, we put pieces around him, he ascends and is a top 10 QB in the league. And if not, 2024 would be the best time to address it anyway, with a lot more information. Once we know how Fields plays in 2023, this will all get a lot clearer.

for sure. I dont see anyone offering what we'd need to make a deal like that at this point. I suppose someone could argue that one of the three QBs is a cant miss superstar, but the consensus top pick is undersized and at best he is just what Fields was when we drafted him. And Fields has two NFL seasons under his belt now. Unless some GM is just in love past the point of logic with Fields, or if the Bears scouts really think one of the rookies is a cant miss hall of famer, both of which seem extremely far fetched, we are keeping Fields - at least through 2023. After next year we will know what we have.

I agree 95%. I do think you give Fields weapons and protection, and he will ascend. But he hasn't done it yet, so it's all a guess. Like I said, Im making the same guess with you, but I have to admit that until he does it on the field, it is just an assumption of things to come. The other point is that you said you wouldn't trade Fields no matter what the compensation. There is a price for any player. If someone offered five first rounders for Fields, you'd have to take it. No one will of course. It's so lopsided that it both makes my example, and is something no team would ever do. What about four tho? Or three? I agree with you guys. We are keeping Fields, and he will grow. I cant wait to see it. But if you're a good GM, you have to chase down all the what-ifs. Lastly, all the rumors about trading Fields are meant to force the Texans into the bidding battle with the Colts and other teams, to raise the price we get for the pick. I dont think they are serious. Not because there isnt a price we would take for Fields, but I dont see anyone offering it. One interesting question is whether the Colts would offer more for Fields or for the #1 pick.

I totally agree. All the scenarios are good ones, but which one is the best? It's a hell of a riddle.

It's a difficult question, and the answer hinges entirely on the evaluation of the players. On one hand, if this guy is Von Miller, you gotta take him. There are only 5 QBs and 5 Pass Rushers each year that take over games. If you have one of each, you fill around them and compete for SuperBowls. A dominant pass rusher is worth any number of other players who arent world beaters. On the other hand, he is undersized, and if he isn't the next pass rushing messiah then by all means you trade down. And you dont know. Its all a guess. Trubisky looks better than Mahomes to your talent evaluation department, but is he worth trading up for, or might our outlook be so fuzzy that even if we think Trubisky is better, maybe Mahomes will surprise us - what do we actually KNOW? So it all comes down to our scouting department, and Poles and Cunningham taking input form coaches etc and making the right decisions. A lot of good GMs have failed at this too. Oh, and I suppose it matters what you think of Jalen Carter too. If hes the guy, or also the guy along with Anderson, that plays into it too. I dont see it, but what do I know? It takes information, intelligence, wisdom and luck. If you arent SURE Anderson is the guy in a 4-3, you gotta go with the trade down. But if he is, you gotta draft superman no matter what. So how do we on this board answer this? We can look at film, and guess. This is just one of several intriguing questions this offseason. I cant remember one that was as much fun as this one is right now.

spending money is easy. the question is, if you cut Whitehair, with the cap money you save in doing that, could you afford a better player? or forget the money - just is there a better player than Whitehair? I say yes. He isnt that good, he just looked good playing next to the Mustipher. the OL is WIDE open for Poles.

exactly, but if we end up taking Anderson, that wont be so bad either. We have a lot of ways we can go, and all of them are good.

all that is good, but i mean, I think he can find a player who is simply better than Whitehair. I think Whitehair may have looked good next to some other players, but he is not really that good objectively.

he would look great in blue and orange. someone somewhere has to figure out whether he is worth picking at 2 or 4 rather than trading down, getting the next guy and another player. If he ends up in Chicago, I will be very pleased.

Payne should come in between 18M and 21M a year. Likely 19.5 ish

I think there is a good chance Whitehair is gone. He simply costs too much, and even with his dead cap money, you could replace him with the cap savings from cutting him.

That'd be a good deal. I think we will have to pay more to sign him.

Good for him. He played well this year - I'm interested to see how he grows and where he is headed as a player too. I doubt he's reached anything near his ceiling as a rookie.

Also keep in mind we are almost certain to sign at least one big free agent on the DL, and that might affect what we do in the draft too. For example, I don't see us signing (or trading for) a big name DT and then taking Jalen Carter. Frankly, I don't see us taking him anyway. maybe if he falls to like 8 or something, but not in the top 5. We are so wide open from here it's incredible.

amen, and i expect Fields will end this discussion with his passing in 2023