BearFan PHX

Ha! This is so silly. I was just playing with the draft simulator at: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ First I traded the #1 pick to the Texans: Texans get: Pick #1 Bears get: Pick #2, Pick #12, Pick #33, 2024 Houston first rounder, and 2024 Cleveland first rounder the Texans then take Bryce Young QB Alabama Then I trade Pick #2 to the Colts for pick #4, and pick #79 The Colts then take CJ Stroud at #2, and Arizona picks Kelee Ringo CB from Georgia with pick #3 Then I trade Pick #4 to Seattle for Pick #5 and Pick #53 Seattle takes Myles Murphy with the Pick #4 I then use Pick #5 to take Will Anderson Jr. EDGE Alabama Later with Pick #12, I take Bryan Bresee DT Clemson --- So I turned Pick #1 into: Will Anderson Jr. EDGE Alabama Bryan Bresee DT Clemson 2024 HOU 1st Round pick 2024 CLE 1st Round pick Pick #33 Pick #53 Pick #79 This would be insane. It is completely impossible. The Texans trade is crazy. The simulator offered it to me. These drafts are silly. Either that or Im the best GM that ever lived. Yeah i know. They're silly LOL

Yes it is another one year deal, so we can bring him to camp, keep him or cut him, no real cap ramifications.

I read it the same way, and you can see most trades on that list that went higher than RH! I agree, the Goff trade is the floor of what we would accept.

oh and even more to our point here, adam, the chart you posted shows not only a huge overpayment in JJ (Johnson points) but even the RH points Im talking about in your second column are out of whack. Our pick is worth a LOT more than the JJ points suggest. Lets go Poles!

right, in modern times that first round QB is worth more than the old Jimmy Johnson pick #1 = 3000 points model. This guy, Rich Hill, attempted to math out the real modern draft chart using information gained in trades. When teams thought a set of picks for another set of picks was a deal they'd both do (and then made the trade), that equivalence was put into the formula, and you jockey it around until it fits the most trades. https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart Hill's chart says that the #1 pick is worth a lot more relative to the other picks in the draft by FAR, than Johnson's old school chart implied. And the recent trades at the top of the draft after Hill made his chart in 2017 all tend to confirm this. A lot of the difference between #1 and #2 or #4 has to do with the QB talent at the top of the draft each year. The forthcoming combine hype machine will increase the value of our pick consistently from Johnson's chart value today, until it more closely resembles Hill's by late April. What I'm saying is, in running trade scenarios, when we've been referencing recent trades as models, we've been predicting the Bears to get a lot more than when we use to Johnson chart to make the same predictions. For example, when we trade with Indianapolis, we fall to the 4th pick, and what we get in return varies wildly using the Johnson chart or recent trades and the Hill chart. The Johnson chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the the #12 pick overall. The Hill chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the #3 pick! You'd need to package both #3 and #4 overall to get #1. That's how valuable that pick is. Or said another way, moving from #1 to #4 is equal to #16 and #29. The #1 pick is worth THREE first rounders! Especially if one of them is a 2024 first rounder! You can see why people are starting to include players in these scenarios. Its hard to make up that massive value with just other picks without doing a Herschel Walker type deal. Here's one interesting idea: Eberflus needs to stock his defense. He knows the players at Indi really well in his system. We've seen the thought that Indi would pay this years first (#4), next years first and Quentin Nelson, but we worry about the player and the huge deal. What if, instead, we got this years #4, Next year's number one (which is likely to be a high pick). an extra 3rd or 4th this year, and a handful of defensive players that Eberflus thinks are about to take the next step? I love reading all these scenarios you guys come up with. Check out the Hill chart, and see if it changes any of your predictions?

oh yeah, I totally agree with you there! hes been working all season bringing in people to look at. hes done everything right so far. now he needs to hit home runs on talent evaluation.

true, but all of those players could be cut in camp and not cost us any cap room. His real roster is anyone he gives a significant four year deal to. So far, I think that's just Fields, and even he could be cut without too much cap disturbance (we arent gonna cut him). Any Free Agents he picks up on 1 or 2 year low end deals are still just placeholders and competition makers. When he signs a Free Agent to a four year $20M+ deal, THATS his roster. Those are the guys we should judge his performance on.

a friggin men!

Thats GM malpractice. I get that they couldnt let Rogers walk, but the 49ers let Montana go, and Brady is down in Tampa. Sometimes you gotta let go. It's suicide for a franchise.

It's hard to answer with any kind of accuracy, since we don't know what the roster will be yet. But if we assume Justin Fields is the QB next year, and we assume a lot of holes get filled on the DL and OL, it will be a question of how the team gels. We saw evidence of what this staff was able to do in the middle of the season with this roster. With little to no talent, they HITS'd their way into a lot of excellent performances. Nagy never scored 30 points in back to back to back games. I think the team will start a little slow, and then find themselves around game 6. From there, anything is possible. I think realistic outcomes range from a 7-10 record, to a first round playoff victory. And of course, once you're there, with momentum, who is to say? The most likely outcome, I'm gonna guess now is 9-8, and a playoff appearance with a 50/50 chance of winning one playoff game. But just as the team can outperform generic expectations, so can Poles over or under perform this critical offseason. If he manages to land a few game changers on the DL and OL, who can say what could be possible for this team. And if he whiffs, it's even harder to say. But if he lands 2 true studs on the DL that bring consistent pressure, and puts together a competent OL with at least one guy you can reliably run behind, we'd already be in the top 10 of the league. Getting past those good teams in the top 10 then becomes the name of the game, and we would need at least another offseason to really do that. I have a friend who is a Packers fan. He doesnt know what football teams are like. He only knows what it's like to always have a top 20 all time QB. He thinks a bad season is when the Pack is 8th in the league, and doesnt make the NFC Championship game. We are standing on the precipice of an era where the Bears will be like that: a decent team looking to become a dominant one. My prediction for 2023 is that they become that 10th best team in the league, and fight for a dominant identity from there. That part will almost certainly not happen next year, but that window opens 2024. FWIW, there are only 9 teams with 10 or more wins. The 10th best team in the league, is the one standing just outside the circle of the 5 to 9 teams who are truly in contention. But with this coaching staff, and if we get the right players, who is to say that come December, we aren't already becoming the 2024 team? That's what we will all be rooting for. But from here, guessing generically, I'm saying 9-8, 10th best team in the league, go to a playoff game, 50/50 chance to win it. That's absolutely achievable from here, and would be my expectation for us next year. I'd call that success, and look forward to 2024 when we are really a SB contender.

I was ready to give up on Velus because his hands were SO shaky, and he didnt show much else than raw speed to justify his being here. Now, over the last few weeks, Ive seen him grow, and take better care of the ball. You cant teach speed, so he will be in camp next year with whomever we fill the WR room with. Ill be rooting for him to grow up and use that speed to win.

I agree with all the reasons you say, but i do think Poles expected to be picking in the top 5 of the draft, and did things to help insure that, like trading away players on defense - it was the smart thing to do, and here we are.

so far it looks that way, but for the exercise of it, is there a WR expected to go at the top of the 2nd round that youd trade straight up for Claypool? Of course you could use that pick on any position, so it's not really the full question, but I wonder if Poles didnt overpay just because of the lack of options at WR this offseason?

yeah! both! that's crazy isn't it? We are literally an expansion team right now, except we also have Fields (or three more firsts). Only an expansion team has the freedom of movement we have right now. This is a generational moment for a GM that Poles has inherited / created. Most GMs never get anything remotely like this. The stage is set for an epic story and outcome. Now he and our scouts just have to hit it out of the park. This is gonna be the the most interesting off-season ever.

For running back, Poles has a list of players he'd like. He will wait until most of those players are gone and take one of the last few names that still make his cut. That's the way to fill the RB position with value. I think this is true of RBs more than any other position. Maybe safety - and for the same reason, youre looking for talent in a very large group of men who are 5' 11" 220, rather than looking for an athlete at LT among a smaller group of men who are 6' 7" 330. Monty did well with pass protection, and was a good one / two punch with Herbert. I could see us keeping him. But i agree, the money would have to be right.

I think it all depends on the grades Poles has for DL, WR, OL I would be surprised if it isnt one of those three. But if he is thinking BPA, and a stud TE or DB is there or something, you never know.

lol oops!

WOW I just saw this on YouTube - apparently Poles let his grading info slip and we can see what attributes he prizes most for each position, and his scores on Fields, Claypool and Velus Jones Jr. This is huge info that will help us to predict what hes gonna do.

Oh, and I should add - any Free Agents he signs before the draft that only have 1 or 2 year deals, are not real choices, and we shouldn't judge Poles on them. We should judge him on players he brings in with 4 year deals. Those are his guys.

true. I think 2022 was a unique year tho. I'll amend and say "unless youre taking a rebuild year to totally tear town the roster and move half your salary cap off the books" THEN you fill all your holes with Free Agents. The Bears do it every year. Like signing Glennon before drafting Trubisky. But all the teams do this for every position. Of course they dont all put great players there, but the try to allow themselves to take BPA or something similar. Call it worst case scenario insurance. I am sure Poles will go into the draft with holes "filled" on the OL and DL, and then he will look very hard at DL and OL in the top of the draft. In many ways, Claypool is a Free Agent signing to "fill a WR hole" ahead of the 2023 draft. We can go in so many directions. It all hinges on player evaluations, and right now we have no idea what cards Poles in holding in that regard. This offseason is gonna be really interesting. The only sure thing, is that there are no sure things.

Totally agree - I think we will see massive turnover on the roster, more than anyone is expecting, but I still hold out hope for Montgomery. I think hes an excellent player.

every GM does this every year. They fill every need with a player. Not always a GOOD player, but they sign someone in case the draft falls a different way so they dont have to reach. Given the money we have, a few of them better be GOOD players LOL

For sure. But i do think they will sign a few large contract Free Agents. likely positions are at OT and on the D line, which are also the targeted positions for use in the first round. So I think things could change after Free Agency begins for us?

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. However, we have a lot of money to spend in Free Agency, and once we make a few splashes our needs may change.

yup, we bought this coming offseason with the horrible year we just had. Now I hope we get what we paid for.