BearFan PHX

Oh, and I should add - any Free Agents he signs before the draft that only have 1 or 2 year deals, are not real choices, and we shouldn't judge Poles on them. We should judge him on players he brings in with 4 year deals. Those are his guys.

true. I think 2022 was a unique year tho. I'll amend and say "unless youre taking a rebuild year to totally tear town the roster and move half your salary cap off the books" THEN you fill all your holes with Free Agents. The Bears do it every year. Like signing Glennon before drafting Trubisky. But all the teams do this for every position. Of course they dont all put great players there, but the try to allow themselves to take BPA or something similar. Call it worst case scenario insurance. I am sure Poles will go into the draft with holes "filled" on the OL and DL, and then he will look very hard at DL and OL in the top of the draft. In many ways, Claypool is a Free Agent signing to "fill a WR hole" ahead of the 2023 draft. We can go in so many directions. It all hinges on player evaluations, and right now we have no idea what cards Poles in holding in that regard. This offseason is gonna be really interesting. The only sure thing, is that there are no sure things.

Totally agree - I think we will see massive turnover on the roster, more than anyone is expecting, but I still hold out hope for Montgomery. I think hes an excellent player.

every GM does this every year. They fill every need with a player. Not always a GOOD player, but they sign someone in case the draft falls a different way so they dont have to reach. Given the money we have, a few of them better be GOOD players LOL

For sure. But i do think they will sign a few large contract Free Agents. likely positions are at OT and on the D line, which are also the targeted positions for use in the first round. So I think things could change after Free Agency begins for us?

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. However, we have a lot of money to spend in Free Agency, and once we make a few splashes our needs may change.

yup, we bought this coming offseason with the horrible year we just had. Now I hope we get what we paid for.

we definitely need a #1 WR, but we need Defensive Line too (and linebackers and offensive Line). You gotta figure Eberflus is chomping at the bit as a defensive coach. Hes gonna get some dogs on the DL and the OL too, just dont know what order they will come in, and whether itll be through free agency or the draft or trade. I guess it all comes down to the grades they have on WRs vs D line outside of the top two guys

well I do think we mostly agree, but if I thought that one of the two Defensive Linemen was a generational talent, id take them. Its not just a matter of numbers, but it is a matter of whether the player is worth the value, and if you can get two firsts, neither of those guys is worht that, as far as I can see.

I would love to get a glimpse of what Poles and Eberflus really think about a lot of players on this roster, including Fields. This offseason is going to be fascinating and full of surprises.

right, I agree

and its still just a one year deal. its more development time, like a super draft pick, but Poles isnt tied to him, and can cut him in training camp or anytime, theres no real cap ramifications.

yup, it's a decent move, and it wasnt a four year deal, so that still isn't a Poles core move. It's just incremental stuff. I cant wait for Free Agency to begin. tampering period starts March 13th.

well if you were going to trade him, youd also want to shut him down this week. I dont think we are trading him, but they would shut him down either way i think?

Yeah, he has a lot of ability, but is he a soldier? It's getting more and more clear to me, we are an expansion team with Fields, the #2 pick, and a wide open cap. Every position could turn over. No one is safe. Every player on the roster is competing with the rookie class and the free agent class. Poles will build this team from the ground up, and that means creating a roster of talent that has an identity. What is Jenkins' character? He could be here next year, or he could be a backup here or not here at all. We all see the upside of his talent, but being a football player is about more than that. And thank God I think Poles knows this. Finally.

Perfect. What a very difficult season to manage, and all the goals were met. Poles and Flus deserve a lot of credit for getting us here. Now they need to win the offseason, and we will start to roll.

yes, but we had players on deals we couldnt cut or trade too. Im saying right now, Fields aside, we are an expansion team. thats unique.

he took Jones because he knew he had no OLT, and no money to get one. 5th round picks are not foundational pieces when you pick them. You may hope they will become something, and perhaps Poles likes what hes seen of Jones and will keep him on the OL, but it wont be because he is cheap on his rookie deal - itll be because 3 years from now he wants to ride with this guy in particular. He has a long list of players available to choose from and Jones is simply part of that list. He has no extra inside track, because we dont need to think like that this year.

we are an expansion team right now. Thats not such a bad place to be either. But nothing is known. We almost certainly have another year to watch Fields grow.

Let me put this another way: There are the only four players currently on our roster who cost more to cut than to keep. Everyone else on the roster you GAIN cap room if you cut or trade them. In other words, everyone on the roster's dead cap money that you eat if you cut or trade them is less than their 2023 cap figure. These are the only exceptions: Justin Fields, Kyler Gordon, Alex Leatherwood, Jaquan Brisker you can cut any other player on the team and gain net cap space. Even in the case of Eddie Jackson, he counts $17M against the cap in 2023, but only costs $9.5M in dead money to cut him. That means if you cut him, you GAIN $7.5M in cap room to find a replacement. If Jackson was a free agent, and you had $7.5M to sign a safety, and Jackson was asking for $7.5M a year would you be sure you would sign him and not someone else who is available at that price? Because that is the real question Poles is asking himself. Gordon, Leatherwood and Brisker are all on super low deals anyway, so if you wanted to cut them, you could do it easily with no cap pain. (we aren't cutting Gordon or Brisker but we could easily afford the right trade if it came along) Fields is literally the only one who you NEED to keep. The rest is Poles' playground. SO identifying who you want to keep on our roster isnt just about whether they played well, its about who else is out there, because we could afford to replace everyone on this team with someone else at the same price (except Fields). Not saying we should, but each of those decisions depends on the list of players available league wide - not just how well they did for us this year. We will never be in this position again. 2023 going into 2024 we will be thinking which pieces you build on. But right now, it's a unique year, and we dont need to think that way at all. Right now, we are an expansion team heading into year 1, except we have Fields, and right of first refusal on our current players. When the Jaguars came into the modern salary cap era as an expansion team, they went to the AFC Championship game the next year. i think they got an extra first round pick. Let's say we are there, and already used the bonus first pick on Fields and he got two years of experience arleady. OK one, but you know what I mean LOL We still have the #2 pick too.

I think that with a basically wide open cap, with very few exceptions, the players we have are just more free agent options to Poles. If there is someone out there that isnt a top price guy, but Poles thinks is better than Jones, then he could take him instead. I think wholesale change is possible at almost every position, especially on the OL and DL. Anything is possible. Trying to see what we have and build off of it isnt really the right way to look at this. Sure, we see the same high priced big names, but in filling out around them, it could be a guy we have on the roster, or it could be someone else. Anywhere. A - In football the best thing you can have is great players signed to long term deals. B - The next best thing is to have no one signed, and lots cap room and picks. C - The worst thing is to have not great players signed to long terms deals. Most teams are stuck between B and C. We are firmly at B. We've been living at C trying to reorganize the pieces we have and bring in a few new guys. We really are at B right now, so we dont have to even think like that. For example, is Whitehair good? Sure. He's OK. You might think he is a piece to build around. You think "well hes Ok, and we already have him, so we will spend our money elsewhere." But Whitehair's 2023 cap number is $14 Million. 8 of that is dead money. Is there another player ont he Ol who is comparable or better that we can get for $6M? What about $9M? Better than $14M going forward? So what looked like a piece you could keep is possibly replaceable with a non big name. Or look at Jones. Hes making Rookie 5th round money. A great deal, but is there someone at $7M a year who might be better? We all know Orlando Jones is out there. A big name. Say you get him, and think "we will move Jones to RT" but is there a non big name for $6M who would play better at RT? This is why Im saying be cautious of assuming ANYONE on this roster is safe. They are just low level Free Agent options just like the ones that arent on our roster but are on Poles' list. No one is safe. (Fields, Brisker & Gordon aside)

perfectly said. 100%. "Down the road we could be in shock to see a good player cut or traded a year earlier than we expect. " THIS - this is the sign of a roster that isnt playing catch up. Instead of trying to milk the last bit of something you already have, you trade it for picks and keep the pipeline primed. New England has done this for 20+ years. In the end, it really is more like a College team - some of your biggest stars are going to leave. You need to be developing the depth behind them to keep it going. Ride too many horses for too long, and you lose the traded draft picks, and who ever you did draft didnt develop behind them. Thats when you get into the trade next years pick to try to fill a desperate hole this year, and you sink into hell. This crappy season was the PRICE to get back into rhythm. And the sign that it is working will be when we trade good players we've drafted who are looking promising going into their contract year. Like Roquan, or how we got Akeem Hicks when youre on the wrong side of things.

smart. Im thinking the extra 2024 first rounder gets Fields his true #1 WR, but you're right, it might also get his replacement. Im a Fields fan, i think its all coming for him, so Im keeping him. But I mentioned earlier, there is a scenario where you trade Fields this year for 2 firsts and a 2nd or more, and then you take a QB this year with our first, and you still have another first this year, and two next year. Poles didnt draft Fields. I think we all think we should stay with Fields, but this is a scenario you have to do due diligence on.

I agree. I think we upgrade the OL, but probably dont have anyone better than Claypool as our #1 next year. With Claypool, Mooney and one other, defenses wont be able to double them all, so hopefully we are adequate. If Poles finds a trade for a stud WR, I will be truly impressed. But if he doesn't, that will be job #1 for 2024 on a team that is already gelling.

we are going to be MUCH better next year, but I hope they take the long view on everything. I dont want to lose a single playoff game, and then pat ourselves on the back as we slide back into the slime. I want to build a sustainable program, where we arent in the "we better do it this year" mode, so that we can be in the hunt every year. We are going to be good next year, and the superbowl window opens in 2024. Is it possible they will get there early? It is! But that shouldnt be the design if any decision has a short term upside vs a long term one.