BearFan PHX

I dunno how you can predict the opening game where half our roster is new, and no one knows how Jordan Love will be.

right! It really shows how bringing in Poles and Warren and removing Phillips and McCaskey is going to make a huge difference. It might not be easy to see, but Phillips and the McCaskeys ruined us for several decades.

right. a lot of these guys are the names of All Pro players in 2024 and/or 2025, but right now, they are football babies.

that is so crazy. I hope it all changes soon.

exactly. Poles has shown the discipline not to fill holes with players who dont fit his long term plans. He isnt drinking the "we're close and another piece could put us over the top to be a contender this year" the way other Bears GMs have forever. It's hard to stay disciplined, but its how you build a consistent winner. But putting 7 out of 10 guys on 4 year deals doesnt help you, because you have no room for the 9 out of 10 player unless he is your first round pick. Poles is doing it right!

I suspect that Poles also looks into out-of-the-box answers, like unlikely trades and such too. Im sure that in doing his due diligence, he finds the price too high a lot and so we never know who all he might have been looking at. But there is at least some chance that the answer at Edge will be an unexpected one, and there is conversely a decent chance that he wont sign anyone at DE of any import too. I'm just saying the options and outcomes are much wider and more varied that we might think - even if we end up signing Houston for a one year deal at the end of all this anyway.

Looking into this more - Adam's projection - 230 yards per game is just slightly above the NFL average passing yards per game (21-22 season) of 223. That's not pie in the sky, it's just average. Our (my?) perspective as a Bears fan has really clouded my expectations for the passing game. Adam's not reaching, if anything he could be underestimating, or the RBs and TE2 etc will make up the rest.

i guess I cant argue with the potential of DJ Moore to break 1100 yards and 4 TDs. But If Mooney gives us 800 and 4 TD, Claypool gives us 500 and 4 TD, and Kmet gives us 500 with 6 TD That's 2,900 yards and 18 TDs. I feel like thats more reasonable. But then, I see your numbers broken down into per game numbers, and they look entirely reasonable. To average under 250 yards and 2 TDs a game seems right. And my numbers would be 170 yds, 1 TD per game, and that definitely feels low. Maybe Im being thrown off of the big numbers here because there are 17 games now instead of 16. or maybe Im just a Bears fan and think that have two WRs over 1,000 yards is fantasyland because I'm not used to seeing it. So my thoughts are at first blush i think you aimed too high, and then broken down it seems quite doable, so yeah, that's our offensive potential, sure. I think you nailed it.

yeah this is how I see it too. A lot fo these guys are gonna be the guys that contend for a Super Bowl, but first they have to learn how to win in the NFL, and a few of them (next years top picks) aren't on the team yet!

I disagree. Even if Fields breaks out, this team is going to run the ball, and I dont see a 4,000 yard passing year for Fields. If he DOES throw that much, we are in real trouble. Also, making a run for a wildcard spot, or even winning the division because other teams fail isnt the same as being a top 6 dominant team. We are not going to be that in 2023, no matter how much we come together. For example, two years from now, Tyrique Stevenson may well be a serious shut down corner with league wide attention. But this year he is going to be a rookie, and he is going to make mistakes. Think of last year how Gordon and Brisker looked in the first half of the season. He has a lot of talent, and he is going to make plays, but he is also going to make mistakes and learn. Ditto on the D line, where some positions dont even have the rookie who is going to ascend on the roster yet! Will Claypool grow? etc We are relying on a LOT of young players to grow. And they will, but this is not a team that's gonna make a run in the playoffs. 10 wins and a playoff loss would be an excellent outcome for this team for 2023. Give this roster two more first round picks and a year of experience, and it's a whole other thing. That's 2024.

I think a lot of the pieces of the 2024+ run are in place. They need to gel and grow, that can happen faster or not as fast. Un,ikely but possible to start peaking this year, especially in December. One thing that's going to be lacking though is the pass rush. And that's a big thing. Add that piece, and we are half a year ahead. This roster, plus two more DEs: a dominant DE and also another pretty good DE, would be ready to contend on paper. A lot of younger players still need to grow into their roles, but they are the guys we are going to war with. At that point, you can tinker with another WR or TE, maybe another player in the secondary, but your core would be set. Without those DEs, especially the first round star type, it's a very different story. They probably come in next years draft. but who knows whether someone already on the team ascends to be that pretty good DE, and I dunno who we might acquire before the season starts. The smart bet is that the window opens for real in 2024, but we have a bunch of the pieces here already, and who knows whether they might catch critical mass and be a team in December? I also klnow we need a swing OT, but that doesnt really affect our status as contenders per se. I say 8 wins, maybe 10 and a possible short lived playoff appearance.

I agree our window wont truly open until 2024, but I see 7 to 10 wins possible with this team depending on how they gel. We could well see a playoff game, but I agree with you that I dont think we will see a playoff "run"

Fully agree. Im just saying he resisted the temptation to sign or trade for one of the bigger names thinking he might get there this year, and waited because he obviously didnt think any of those guys were an A. That's discipline that will pay off over time.

Poles has put some real players into important positions and developed a roster with good depth at most positions. He's also been very disciplined, and not pulled the trigger on long term deals for B+ grade players. Sometimes that has meant that we have to ride with less than B+, for example at DE. But it's much better to be lacking at a position, and have a chance to fill it next year (or later this year) with a player who has A level upside, than it is to be stuck with a B+ level guy because youre paying him on a 4 year deal. We've seen that mistake over and over here in Chicago. We may have holes this coming year, although not too many. But imagine, having avoided marrying those B players, what our roster and cap is going to look like in 2024. I think we will be a legit SB contender with the window opening in 2024. We have a bunch of the pieces already. Could they ascend this year? It's possible. Some prognosticators have us with 12 wins. I'm not sure of that, but it is possible. So is 7 wins. But yes, they could make a run early. But we are working toward a 2024 deadline, and that is the way to do it. Poles is the real deal. Of course he will have some swings and misses. Perhaps Claypool will be one of them. But even so, Poles is avoiding so many short term traps, and has made enough good moves to say this guy knows what he is doing. Finally. Finally. Lets go.

I think that QB development is a funny thing. It doesnt happen linearly, so it's hard to see sometimes. Consider a stone archway over a door. Each piece of stone is like a wedge and they all lean on each other. If you're building one, you need a wooden support to hold the wedges until the past piece is in. If even one piece is missing, it doesnt stand together, but put in that last piece, and it's solid and needs no support at all. In a way, it's like that for quarterbacks. They have so many things to master, and if one of them is off, then the entire performance is off. If you take your drop, look off the safety, read the right man, find a throwing lane, release the ball on time but your footwork is off, its an incompletion. Each part has to right for the entire thing to work. So as QBs learn and get better, the coaches see each wedge separately and are able to judge progress in those areas. We really only see the final outcome of all the pieces together. And in truth, we see the outcome of the QB play, the WR play, the OL play and the playcalling. Longwindedly, what I'm trying to say is that Fields could have been making steady progress all last year, and if we only see stats, we wont know that three of his wedges have improved from awful to really good, because another wedge hasnt reached maturity yet. There is every reason to think that Fields will put it all together. And as has been said before, if not, Caleb Williams is out there. Personally, I think Fields is gonna be great.

one of the most fun things about watching football is how much of a team sport it is - especially on defense. everything positive or negative is a multiplier on everything else. Amen to the idea that great DLs make secondaries look great. And conversely shut down corners can gift coverage sacks to linemen. We need some great DEs!

agree. Edmunds is easily the best MLB in the league at doing what we will ask him to do.

i voted for the pass rush, but of course, for any team, in any season, the QB performance is always most important.

I've been thinking both of these things too - I hope we are better off at DE than it appears, and I wonder about a backup OT.

yup I saw that too - I see articles saying he is growing up and then some saying the rumors are he hasnt. Who knows? I want nothing more than for him to prove me wrong. I will gladly eat crow if he has 800+ yards this season!

I didnt know what that was, googled - cool stuff. Here's an article explaining it for people who dont already know, like me. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/8/1/20749103/nfl-offensive-lineman-ol-masterminds-summit-recap-von-miller

exactly. no one would be happier than me (us) to see Claypool dominate. Then the story will be how he turned it around and overcame a bad start to build himself into a competitor. But I also think if the bet was $1,000 will Claypool be the starting WR2 for the Bears in 2025, very few of us would be betting "yes" right now. So in the context of him being soft in other areas, this picture plays a certain way and receives a certain response. Contrast it with how much I love Dennis Rodman, no matter what he wears. That guy is a competitor and his aggressively individualistic presentation just re-enforces his image as a star to me. If Justin had been in that same picture, we'd say "that guy has it all, hes a baller and hes a model, go get it Justin!" But in this pic, in context, Claypool just looks soft.

Its not just the photo. We are hearing rumors that Claypool isnt a hard worker, that he isnt really pushing himself, so then, when he shows up dressed like that, its natural that we think hes soft. But youre right - not just from a picture.

sexuality aside, I see ego. I see someone who is more obsessed with celebrity than with developing their game. I understand why Poles did what he did at the time. It was a calculated gamble. He probably paid too much for it, but it was also probab;y his best option. We were needy and trying to do something for Fields, something to make evaluating Fields possible, and that has value beyond just adding a WR. I will forgive Poles this mistake too. He has absolutely made up whatever draft capitol he overpaid by with this offseason. If they need to cut the guy, so be it. He does not look like a Bear in any way to me. And it'll be a good object lesson for other players. We are here to work. We are here to improve.

Ive seen a bunch of film on Davis, and he is a monster in the run game - a real road grader who can move. Once he gets his hands on someone, they dont come unglued, and he has great body control. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.