BearFan PHX

That'd certainly be a tough, blue collar identity.

I think Mauch's strength is his... strength LOL he's a total mauler, but not a technical pass protector. I do see him as more of a RT or a guard. I think he's a beast tho, not sure i ever thought that about Jones. But if you're talking strictly LT, I think i agree that Jones > Mauch. But i think in the running game especially, Mauch is much better than Jones. But that's great - room for both then.

Ok so we will compare Justin and Lamar's stats for 2023 and 2024 and see where this bold prediction lands! I will say this - every year Im on the record with some prediction I am sure of that turns out not to happen LOL and the same is true of anyone who sticks their necks out and actually makes predictions! So kudos to you for being bold, even though I think you're wrong! I will say what you're right about tho - so far Fields is a losing QB. If we knew he and the team wouldnt grow, then it'd be easy to say you're 100% right. This has been the truth so far. But we all saw him running for his life because the OL couldnt protect him, and the WRs were rarely open. Fields didnt throw a lot of INTs, so maybe if he had looked more "confident" and gotten the ball out earlier, he'd have been throwing to WRs who didnt get separation, and some % of those throws would have been picks. But the name of the gmae here is to predict the future, and I dont think many people expect Fields to be the same QB he was in 2022 in 2023. That's the question here. I think you're wrong, but of course until it happens, no one can really know. Fair? Oh, and even though we all agree there werent enough of them, here are a bunch of examples of Fields being a great passer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTHoUrjAUrs

Good stuff!

Yeah i dont have enough info to make the call myself. I just want young excellent players we can build around, and given how wide open we are right now, i want them to look at every player available and not to give too much value to any player just because they are already on the roster vs available in the draft or free agency. We are basically an expansion team, we are not filling holes in a preexisting roster, we are starting from scratch basically. And that is a very good position to be in indeed. As Ive said before, the best possible situation is to have studs on long term deals. The worst situation is to have duds on long terms deals. The second best situation is to have no one on long terms deals, and lots of cap money and draft capital. And that's what we bought with last season.

I just want Poles to build the best team he can with no feeling like he needs to maximize anything we already had ont he roster. If his people and he agree that Jones is a top 5 OT int he making, then great! I just want him not to be stuck to anyone, and build this from the ground up purely on the future with no care as to who was already here or not. I think that rare clean slate is what we bought with the season we just had - dumping Mack, Quinn & Smith etc.

right, but Jones is getting paid so little if you think someone is better, you can afford them. If brown isnt a great player, that certainly makes the decision. If KC needs a top draft pick to replace him, he cant be that bad tho. I think we are looking at a total overhaul of the OL.

Yes the more Ive been looking into him tonight, the more I'm hearing he didn't have the greatest year. i dunno what to do with that. Either it was a down year and a change of scenery turns him back into a monster, or hes declining. I would personally have no idea which. So Im going to amend everything I said above with "Assuming the scouts think he will return to form" because if they dont then the whole thing is moot. But the main point Im making is it isnt time to try to squeeze all the value out of Jones you can for money or cap reasons. Right now, we have to sign the best players we think we can grow with. For example, we could sign Brown, and a second tier OT at a decent price if we thought they were better than Jones. Of all years in Bears history, this year is the least offseason to try to maximize what you already have, instead, more than ever, we are wide open and its time to be bold, and visionary, and build a team pretty much from the ground up. If Jones finds a spot on the team as one of the best five options, then great, he earned it, and he will be a welcome addition. But I dont think you have to think about getting the most out of a 2022 5th round pick at this point. I think you need to look for the best options you have, even if they are only 10% better than Jones. If they are better at a price that fits your expected cap distribution for that position, then you sign em. We are building a core here. In other words, the only argument for keeping Jones I want to hear is that you think he will dominate as a player. All the other concerns about a rookie deal and the cap and whatever are not strong enough to overrule pure production. Tell me you think he's gonna be a beat next year, not that he's cheap or already signed? If he's going to kick ass, and is the best option out there regardless of price, then if Im Poles, Im listening.

no way. if you think Brown is great, you sign him. if it means a decent rookie gets displaced, then thats what you do. You dont hesitate on signing Brown if you believe in him because youre not sure Jones can play RT. The name of this game is not maximizing the hold over value from last years 3 win team. It's building a new team. There is no reason to worry about sunk costs, especially with this roster. That's what ive been trying to say about everyone being an effective free agent in Poles' eyes. He doesnt need to keep ANYONE, he just needs to build a winner.

Well the Chiefs seem to have decided not to tag Orlando Brown. https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-not-expected-to-place-second-franchise-tag-on-ot-orlando-brown He is exactly the kind of player we should be spending our cap on. He's a top player at an impact position, and he is 26 years old. He should be a building block for us for many years to come, Justin's personal bodyguard. It doesn't matter that Jones played well. He's not as good as Brown. If he was, we'd be happy to pay him what a good OLT makes. And then he would just be what Brown already is. Maybe Jones finds a place at RT, maybe not. It doesn't matter. Loyalty is a fools game at this point in our franchise's development. You show loyalty with big contracts. The rest is some flowery stuff better kept for interpersonal relationships. This is a professional situation, and it's NFL football. I still truly believe that every player on this team, including Fields, is just another option to be compared to whats available in free agency and the draft. The good news is that Justin earns his spot under that microscope. Not because of loyalty or friendliness, but by pure greed. Justin is the best option. And so is Brown. Don't be surprised if there is only one face from last year starting on our OL this year. Or even none. We are an expansion team, and we already have Fields, and few young players in the secondary. The rest is up for grabs. Which is excellent news.

amen, as long as it includes a 2024 first rounder

for sure

he sure does push people around!

but the people that died were in another car, and he didnt hit them or anything. He was speeding, racing, a misdemeanor. This isn't a deep moral issue. It is very sad that people died, but I don't think Carter is the reason they died. He will be charged with what he did, and he'll drop 5 to 10 slots in the draft. Remember when Warren Sapp got caught smoking pot, back when that was a big deal? This will be the same. Lance Briggs crashed his car and fled the scene of his crash. No one talked about cutting him?

he may have been racing, but he didnt hit anyone. he is charged with misdemeanors. If we can get him somewhere in pick #6 to #10 and get a bunch of picks too, Im all for it.

The more I think about it, the more I think that this might drop Carter into the second half of the top ten or fifteen. If so, that opens up all kinds of lucrative trade down scenarios that were deemed to have been too big a drop before. I dont mind a bad boy for a 3T. I think about players like Suh, Haynesworth, Donald, Sapp and more who were all bad boys. It fits the profile of an angry disruptive DL mauler. Did anyone see what Deion Sanders said last week about personality types? He said he likes his Defensive Linemen to be angry and come from one parent homes. Another anonymous defensive coach said "I like D linemen who have had to stab someone before to get their dinner" - I assume that is metaphor, but the point is that Offensive Linemen fold their clothes neatly and everything in their locker is at right angles. Their personality is to protect, work within a structure as a teammate, and create order. A defensive 3T is supposed to eat everything in front of him and create chaos, destroying that order. The good ones "play angry" If Carter falls, and we can pay less than a top 5 pick for him, I want him for sure. Trade with Detroit, get pick #6, pick #18, next years first rounder, and another 2nd or 3rd round pick this year to make the deal. Even if we need to give up next years 5th to make it happen. Of course it means Young goes to Detroit and we have to win the division from him every year. Then again, we have Carter to terrorize him and make him want to play baseball instead.

This makes it easier to look at a trade down past #4. There are some great "Second tier" defensive linemen out there, like Breesee, and they look even better when paired with additional players you'd get by trading down past #4.

I think whatever we do, we need that #1 next year. Its worth more to us strategically than the 2nd this year. If we got picks 6, 18 and a third rounder (under your chart) to make it a first next year, thatd be worth it. Also remember a 2024 pick is worth one round later. So the 6th pick in the first round in 2024 is worth the 6th pick in the second round this year in value.

That's the old chart, and it doesnt fit what's been going on for the last 10 years. Here is the revised chart that more accurately fits the last 10 years of actual trades. Our #1 pick is worth more than the old chart would say. https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill Our pick is worth 1000 points. Detroit would have to give: R1 P6 (446 points) R1 P18 (286 points) R2 P17 (118 points) 2024 R1 pick (150 points) I'd take that in a heart beat. And that's just the FAIR value. If a bidding war starts, who knows what could happen.

Theyll spend it, but not on players over 30. I think this is a 2 year project. I think we go to the playoffs this year, 50/50 to win a playoff game. Then 2024, we are in the championship game vying for a SB run

I like how everyone here understands we're looking long term - to build something sustainable - and not just playing Madden trying to put together a team of over priced has-beens with bigger names in the fantasy that we could win now before it all falls apart. The last few GMs thought like that. Im glad we all get it and have the patience to do this right.

I honestly dont know why they have Carter rated higher. Since its consensus, I'll assume there is a reason that i am missing, but i dont see Carter winning and finishing like Breesee on tape.

I totally agree. And for the first time in forever, the Bears would be ahead of the rhythm, rather than playing catch up. That's the way to be sustainable, and what we bought with this years awful record. Cool!

I think Mustipher and Patrick will both be gone by opening day

lol perfect