BearFan PHX

This would be a home run. You add a blue chip and a solid player to the DL, you add Schnitz and Mauch to the O Line and you get a first and a third next year that alone makes it a great draft, but you sneak in a serious TE and then add all those other players to find a couple more gems. Really couldnt ask for a better outcome. I am cynical about whether players will be available at those spots, but if we did this, I'd be ecstatic. I'd probably prefer Anderson over Carter if it fell that way.

its gonna be fun to watch - we just gotta keep him healthy.

I agree that Fields looks more like Hester out there, than any of these mobile QBs - I just worry about injury running him too much? If Fields can become a better passer (with more protection and open WRs!) then he will only tap into that talent a bit when picking up 3rd downs etc, and then you can unleash him in important playoff and Super Bowl games - he will be VERY hard to stop. The future is blue and orange!

perfect. this is about what id expect we might actually do, and you get a high first rounder for next year which is the best kind of insurance on the unknowns going into 2023. (EDIT - I mean about the trades, i didnt really look at the actual pick)

and if the line gives him an extra half. second of protection, thats an extra half a second the WRs have to get open.

especially considering we will probably not have a blue chip stud at WR1 in 2023, you gotta beef up that line. And the front seven rebuild under Eberflus should be very interesting too.

I agree with both. I can see us keeping EJax this year because we have too many holes to fill, and he was playing Ok this year, but in the long run I totally agree, and if anyone wants to offer a trade for him for something Id seriously think about taking it.

yes. TOTAL GM malpractice. And I blame the owners too. Imagine telling Pace and Nagy these two things for multiple years: 1) your job is on the line and you need to win now 2) its OK to trade future picks and make short term decisions over long term ones. what do you THINK would happen? In ANY business?

I dunno what percentage of teams play a 3-4, but since the average LB group is $25M, it looks like edge rushers are with the DL?

sure, but if you're playing amateur GM like I am, it gives you a starting point for what you might be able to reasonably afford in each group.

Cody Mauch is awesome. I know he's probably meant to be a viking with that hair lol, but he is a nasty MF with a huge motor and desire. He and Jenkins could be a lot to handle if they grow together. Even if they dont end up playing right next to each other, two nasty players like that would really create an identity.

sure, if he doesnt believe in a big money players' talent there's no reason to sign them. But if there was a hypothetical $19M DE out there who was worth it, he'd try to sign them I think. It all goes back to player evaluation. I cant wait to see what our scouts, coaches and GM think about each of these interesting riddles. This is really the best offseason ever. So much fun!

well we spent a lot on Mack, Hicks and Quinn... so I think all teams are committed to spending good $ on the Defensive Line. But if you mean this year, yes. THe biggest reason we lost so many games this year is that there was no $ on the DL. For sure.

and none of them is a complete player. Brady cant run, etc. Plus those are one in a million chances. But my point remains - after the first 15 picks, different teams will value players differently depending on how they fit their schemes, so there is lots of good talent for us available in later rounds, and not all teams will be wanting those players (some will) I wasnt saying no one is available later, more like saying that not all the teams will be looking to take the same guys so they WILL be there for us.

For fun, I looked to see what the league average is for spending on each position group. This is the 2022 NFL average cap allotment: OL. $42.4 Million QB. $21.3 Million RB. $9.6 Million TE. $10.2 Million WR. $29.3 Million DL. $36.6 Million LB. $25.5 Million DB. $35.2 Million ST. $4.9 Million You can see a few things right away. 1) $50 Million/year QBs really cost your team in other areas 2) QBs on their Rookie deals give you space to beef up the Defense 3) we have a rookie deal QB and two rookie deal defensive backs, so we can afford a more than the average on the D Line 4) RBs are just not a position to spend big on, ditto LBs Obviously there are true stud players who can take over a game from any position, like Troy Polomalu, or Ray Lewis or Barry Sanders, and you might pay them a lot more than their position. But all things being equal, which they pretty much are when you have a wide open salary cap like we do, that money is gonna go to the DL and the OL. So I think they sign two big free agents on the DL AND draft DL high as well. This is also why I expect at least 3 new starters on the OL next year.

I think he is likely to draft a DE high, maybe VERY high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pays a real contract for a guy like Marcus Davenport if he is available too. He has a ton of $ to spend on the DL, like $50 Million dollars. So he can do a lot there.

and once you get through the blue chip players, which is extremely fast, you're left with players who have some good attributes, and some shortcomings. So then it matters what your scheme is. Some teams will rank some players higher because they have the traits they need for their system (accepting the drawbacks from that player that they dont emphasize in their system) and other players will prioritize different players because of their strengths and weaknesses. For example, we dont need a shut down corner. We wont spend big for a stud in man coverage. we will look for ball hawks who can play in a zone scheme. Everyone picking a top 5 player is looking for a complete player, but after just a few picks, it changes, and then each players value is relative depending on what the team needs from that position. Long winded way to say, hell yeah there will be players in the 3rd and 4th round we can use!

It also already includes ($116M worth of) players signed to deals, like Whitehair's $14 Million for example, and others. There are cuts that can be made to free up even more space.

it really is like nothing we've seen before. We are, for all practical purposes, an expansion team, except we have Fields already. I agree with almost all of this, but I expect more on the OL. Also, I keep reading articles about how the Packers want to move on from Rodgers. One article even suggests that getting his salary off the books is a necessity for the Pack. But the thing is, they JUST signed him, and if they cut or trade him this year, they take a $100M hit to their cap. It's not even possible. It'll be fun watching the Bears get the all time series vs the Pack on the right side again. It'll be fun watching Packers fans learn what a real football team is like when you dont have a top 20 all time QB. They have no idea. Welcome to the era of the Bears. We are gonna take the North and never give it back!

Yeah, he had no protection, no targets. i think you can say that he is a better QB than the comparables, which puts him right around 25th QB in the league or something. I think he will grow in 2023 and add a significant passing threat to his playmaking, and then the sky is the limit for Justin. But he has to do it, and until he does, it's a guess on my part, and I won't believe it until i see it with my own eyes. But I would say he is the best bet we can make right now. i expect him to become a monster. Let's go Justin.

"put it on my bill"

I feel the same way - especially if we get extra high picks, and a 2024 first rounder

Oh yeah, I didnt mean just the Bears. I meant in general in the NFL draft. Drafting 8th would be great (for the exact reason you mention - trade value!). I just dont want Carter if he falls to #8, Id rather take someone else. But to your main point, Poles bears zero responsibility for the Bears front offices that came before him for sure! And I agree I am expecting him to be MUCH better than the guys who came before him. You mention the Cubs and Theo, and they also bit the bullet and had some purposeful bad years to gain the capital they needed to win a World Series. The analogy is a really good one, and we survived this year to get here, now let's cash in the chips for the right players and get after it!

And Brady got passed over into the 6th round. It's true. But it's not so much flawed logic, as it's the exception that proves the rule. Players that are expected to go in the top 5 and fall are often not so great. They're still a steal in the 2nd round, but often not high first round material - which is why a consensus of GMs let them fall before you. I'm not sold on Carter. I guess that's why I'm saying this now. If Anderson fell, I wouldn't be making this argument at all I suppose. But maybe that's because I don't think Anderson could fall, and I guess that's my point.

I don't see Anderson falling past #4 (at most!), and if Carter is there at #6, I dont want him. Ive seen that movie before. For years the Bears picked around #8, and every year a top 4 guy fell, and often we took him, and then found out why the other GMs passed on him. There is a long list of names like that that we've taken over the years.