BearFan PHX

I think we will be going after Daron Payne in Free Agency at DT, so I hope we take Will Anderson if we have the choice between the two with our first round pick.

I think an extra 2024 first rounder is critical, because it gives us a shot at a high pick QB in 2024 if we need one, and it gives us leverage for Marvin Harrison Jr, if Fields plays well in 2023.

Interesting. I think it goes to show that you never know whether your first choice is really going to outplay your second choice. All things being equal you go with your first choice, but you dont overpay to keep it. You dont get tunnel vision. If people want to say that no one knew whether Trubisky or Mahomes would be better, then fine, dont pay a premium to double down on your bet. Take the guy that falls to you, cuz you really never know. And in truth, it's gonna be about how you coach them up and use them that matters anyway. Would Mahomes be Mahomes if he had been drafted here? Probably not.

YES. We have tried so many times over the years to build on the back end of something. Saving the best of something that wasnt very good to begin with. I was very enthused to hear Bears new President Williams and Poles agree that they want to build something sustainable, not just a flash in the pan. Based on the timeline of these guys, they wont be trading it all to try to win in 2023 either. Good. We will win our share, but we are building the right way. Finally.

we've truly had such bad leadership. glad weve cleared the deck. Now Poles needs to show his eye for talent evaluation.

amen

I remember when he missed a game for some unknown reason. Get the F outta here. Seriously, that is a guy they never should have drafted. They could have had Tremaine Edwards (he went #16) instead of Roquan (at #8) - I can understand thinking that Roquan was a little better maybe, but they were both considered excellent players, and if you KNEW Roquan was a head case, you had to get Edmunds instead if you wanted a LB. Might have even been able to trade down. Kinda like Trubisky and Mahomes. Damn I'm glad Pace is gone.

Yeah that's very interesting. I would say the cap space we cleared up was the biggest reason we did it, and even without that in your analysis, it still looks pretty damned good. Good job Poles. Also throw in Claypool. I still think that's gonna pay dividends in the long run. I think he needs some coaching. He seems very young. I said aloud to the TV at the end of the Raven's game, "Well Roquan you got your 8 tackles today (5 were assists) but you were in a playoff game and you didnt impact the game with a turnover or a critical stop right when you needed it." That's what $20M+ players are supposed to do. You're supposed to be an integral part of winning the game, not just playing well.

I think that's an iron lung LOL

welcome back - thanks for all you do for us!

Ive been having problems too for the last couple of days. I keep getting "An Error Occurred (500 Error) We're sorry, but a temporary technical error has occurred which means we cannot display this site right now. No such file or directory. You can try again by clicking the button below, or try again later." It's been down all day and a lot of yesterday. Maybe you guys already know this, in which case, ignore this, but if not, or if you find the error info helpful, then cool.

AZ, I hear ya. it's impossible for laypeople like us to get the data we'd need to truly make these arguments and cite facts to support them. That's why so much is just what we see by eye. We don't see the players in practice (neither does PFF) and so we just have to hope that Poles' team is good at what they do. I have no issue at all with your conclusions, I totally agree. Jones did an excellent job this year. I still dont know if he is "good enough" to win a super bowl behind, but he clearly out performed his rookie 5th round status, and I think we are both excited to see what he might become as he gains muscle and experience. If he becomes a top 10 LOT, then he was a STEAL. Then again, I just fell victim to my own point here LOL top 10 on what list? And what info did the people making the list have? This offseason is so cloudy, and so exciting. It's a good feeling to trust Poles in ways I haven't really trusted other GMs before him. He just exudes competence. I sure hope I'm right about him!

this may well be true,but PFF said our OL was good this year too. Nothing they say makes sense. It could be true, or not but I dont think PFF is proof of anything. HWat I saw with my eyes agrees with this particular assertion tho. Jones played well for a rookie thrown into the fire!

Roquan is a talented football player. But to get paid that kind of money, you need to affect games. I dont see the turnovers or critical tackles for loss from him. He's just not that dominant of a player. We did the right thing. I'd pay Ray Lewis $20M a year.

great choice!

for sure, but theres no way the Texans would have to give that much to move up one slot.

More Silliness: Trade Downs to turn Pick #1 into: Pick #9: Quentin Johnson WR TCU Pick #12: Bryan Bresee DT Clemson Picks #33 and #44 2024 CAR, CLE, HOU & ATL First Round Picks (we'd have 5 in the first round! LOL) 2024 INDI 2nd Round Pick Insanity.

Ha! This is so silly. I was just playing with the draft simulator at: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/ First I traded the #1 pick to the Texans: Texans get: Pick #1 Bears get: Pick #2, Pick #12, Pick #33, 2024 Houston first rounder, and 2024 Cleveland first rounder the Texans then take Bryce Young QB Alabama Then I trade Pick #2 to the Colts for pick #4, and pick #79 The Colts then take CJ Stroud at #2, and Arizona picks Kelee Ringo CB from Georgia with pick #3 Then I trade Pick #4 to Seattle for Pick #5 and Pick #53 Seattle takes Myles Murphy with the Pick #4 I then use Pick #5 to take Will Anderson Jr. EDGE Alabama Later with Pick #12, I take Bryan Bresee DT Clemson --- So I turned Pick #1 into: Will Anderson Jr. EDGE Alabama Bryan Bresee DT Clemson 2024 HOU 1st Round pick 2024 CLE 1st Round pick Pick #33 Pick #53 Pick #79 This would be insane. It is completely impossible. The Texans trade is crazy. The simulator offered it to me. These drafts are silly. Either that or Im the best GM that ever lived. Yeah i know. They're silly LOL

Yes it is another one year deal, so we can bring him to camp, keep him or cut him, no real cap ramifications.

I read it the same way, and you can see most trades on that list that went higher than RH! I agree, the Goff trade is the floor of what we would accept.

oh and even more to our point here, adam, the chart you posted shows not only a huge overpayment in JJ (Johnson points) but even the RH points Im talking about in your second column are out of whack. Our pick is worth a LOT more than the JJ points suggest. Lets go Poles!

right, in modern times that first round QB is worth more than the old Jimmy Johnson pick #1 = 3000 points model. This guy, Rich Hill, attempted to math out the real modern draft chart using information gained in trades. When teams thought a set of picks for another set of picks was a deal they'd both do (and then made the trade), that equivalence was put into the formula, and you jockey it around until it fits the most trades. https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart Hill's chart says that the #1 pick is worth a lot more relative to the other picks in the draft by FAR, than Johnson's old school chart implied. And the recent trades at the top of the draft after Hill made his chart in 2017 all tend to confirm this. A lot of the difference between #1 and #2 or #4 has to do with the QB talent at the top of the draft each year. The forthcoming combine hype machine will increase the value of our pick consistently from Johnson's chart value today, until it more closely resembles Hill's by late April. What I'm saying is, in running trade scenarios, when we've been referencing recent trades as models, we've been predicting the Bears to get a lot more than when we use to Johnson chart to make the same predictions. For example, when we trade with Indianapolis, we fall to the 4th pick, and what we get in return varies wildly using the Johnson chart or recent trades and the Hill chart. The Johnson chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the the #12 pick overall. The Hill chart says moving from #1 to #4 is equal to the #3 pick! You'd need to package both #3 and #4 overall to get #1. That's how valuable that pick is. Or said another way, moving from #1 to #4 is equal to #16 and #29. The #1 pick is worth THREE first rounders! Especially if one of them is a 2024 first rounder! You can see why people are starting to include players in these scenarios. Its hard to make up that massive value with just other picks without doing a Herschel Walker type deal. Here's one interesting idea: Eberflus needs to stock his defense. He knows the players at Indi really well in his system. We've seen the thought that Indi would pay this years first (#4), next years first and Quentin Nelson, but we worry about the player and the huge deal. What if, instead, we got this years #4, Next year's number one (which is likely to be a high pick). an extra 3rd or 4th this year, and a handful of defensive players that Eberflus thinks are about to take the next step? I love reading all these scenarios you guys come up with. Check out the Hill chart, and see if it changes any of your predictions?

oh yeah, I totally agree with you there! hes been working all season bringing in people to look at. hes done everything right so far. now he needs to hit home runs on talent evaluation.

true, but all of those players could be cut in camp and not cost us any cap room. His real roster is anyone he gives a significant four year deal to. So far, I think that's just Fields, and even he could be cut without too much cap disturbance (we arent gonna cut him). Any Free Agents he picks up on 1 or 2 year low end deals are still just placeholders and competition makers. When he signs a Free Agent to a four year $20M+ deal, THATS his roster. Those are the guys we should judge his performance on.

a friggin men!