BearFan PHX

Thats GM malpractice. I get that they couldnt let Rogers walk, but the 49ers let Montana go, and Brady is down in Tampa. Sometimes you gotta let go. It's suicide for a franchise.

It's hard to answer with any kind of accuracy, since we don't know what the roster will be yet. But if we assume Justin Fields is the QB next year, and we assume a lot of holes get filled on the DL and OL, it will be a question of how the team gels. We saw evidence of what this staff was able to do in the middle of the season with this roster. With little to no talent, they HITS'd their way into a lot of excellent performances. Nagy never scored 30 points in back to back to back games. I think the team will start a little slow, and then find themselves around game 6. From there, anything is possible. I think realistic outcomes range from a 7-10 record, to a first round playoff victory. And of course, once you're there, with momentum, who is to say? The most likely outcome, I'm gonna guess now is 9-8, and a playoff appearance with a 50/50 chance of winning one playoff game. But just as the team can outperform generic expectations, so can Poles over or under perform this critical offseason. If he manages to land a few game changers on the DL and OL, who can say what could be possible for this team. And if he whiffs, it's even harder to say. But if he lands 2 true studs on the DL that bring consistent pressure, and puts together a competent OL with at least one guy you can reliably run behind, we'd already be in the top 10 of the league. Getting past those good teams in the top 10 then becomes the name of the game, and we would need at least another offseason to really do that. I have a friend who is a Packers fan. He doesnt know what football teams are like. He only knows what it's like to always have a top 20 all time QB. He thinks a bad season is when the Pack is 8th in the league, and doesnt make the NFC Championship game. We are standing on the precipice of an era where the Bears will be like that: a decent team looking to become a dominant one. My prediction for 2023 is that they become that 10th best team in the league, and fight for a dominant identity from there. That part will almost certainly not happen next year, but that window opens 2024. FWIW, there are only 9 teams with 10 or more wins. The 10th best team in the league, is the one standing just outside the circle of the 5 to 9 teams who are truly in contention. But with this coaching staff, and if we get the right players, who is to say that come December, we aren't already becoming the 2024 team? That's what we will all be rooting for. But from here, guessing generically, I'm saying 9-8, 10th best team in the league, go to a playoff game, 50/50 chance to win it. That's absolutely achievable from here, and would be my expectation for us next year. I'd call that success, and look forward to 2024 when we are really a SB contender.

I was ready to give up on Velus because his hands were SO shaky, and he didnt show much else than raw speed to justify his being here. Now, over the last few weeks, Ive seen him grow, and take better care of the ball. You cant teach speed, so he will be in camp next year with whomever we fill the WR room with. Ill be rooting for him to grow up and use that speed to win.

I agree with all the reasons you say, but i do think Poles expected to be picking in the top 5 of the draft, and did things to help insure that, like trading away players on defense - it was the smart thing to do, and here we are.

so far it looks that way, but for the exercise of it, is there a WR expected to go at the top of the 2nd round that youd trade straight up for Claypool? Of course you could use that pick on any position, so it's not really the full question, but I wonder if Poles didnt overpay just because of the lack of options at WR this offseason?

yeah! both! that's crazy isn't it? We are literally an expansion team right now, except we also have Fields (or three more firsts). Only an expansion team has the freedom of movement we have right now. This is a generational moment for a GM that Poles has inherited / created. Most GMs never get anything remotely like this. The stage is set for an epic story and outcome. Now he and our scouts just have to hit it out of the park. This is gonna be the the most interesting off-season ever.

For running back, Poles has a list of players he'd like. He will wait until most of those players are gone and take one of the last few names that still make his cut. That's the way to fill the RB position with value. I think this is true of RBs more than any other position. Maybe safety - and for the same reason, youre looking for talent in a very large group of men who are 5' 11" 220, rather than looking for an athlete at LT among a smaller group of men who are 6' 7" 330. Monty did well with pass protection, and was a good one / two punch with Herbert. I could see us keeping him. But i agree, the money would have to be right.

I think it all depends on the grades Poles has for DL, WR, OL I would be surprised if it isnt one of those three. But if he is thinking BPA, and a stud TE or DB is there or something, you never know.

lol oops!

WOW I just saw this on YouTube - apparently Poles let his grading info slip and we can see what attributes he prizes most for each position, and his scores on Fields, Claypool and Velus Jones Jr. This is huge info that will help us to predict what hes gonna do.

Oh, and I should add - any Free Agents he signs before the draft that only have 1 or 2 year deals, are not real choices, and we shouldn't judge Poles on them. We should judge him on players he brings in with 4 year deals. Those are his guys.

true. I think 2022 was a unique year tho. I'll amend and say "unless youre taking a rebuild year to totally tear town the roster and move half your salary cap off the books" THEN you fill all your holes with Free Agents. The Bears do it every year. Like signing Glennon before drafting Trubisky. But all the teams do this for every position. Of course they dont all put great players there, but the try to allow themselves to take BPA or something similar. Call it worst case scenario insurance. I am sure Poles will go into the draft with holes "filled" on the OL and DL, and then he will look very hard at DL and OL in the top of the draft. In many ways, Claypool is a Free Agent signing to "fill a WR hole" ahead of the 2023 draft. We can go in so many directions. It all hinges on player evaluations, and right now we have no idea what cards Poles in holding in that regard. This offseason is gonna be really interesting. The only sure thing, is that there are no sure things.

Totally agree - I think we will see massive turnover on the roster, more than anyone is expecting, but I still hold out hope for Montgomery. I think hes an excellent player.

every GM does this every year. They fill every need with a player. Not always a GOOD player, but they sign someone in case the draft falls a different way so they dont have to reach. Given the money we have, a few of them better be GOOD players LOL

For sure. But i do think they will sign a few large contract Free Agents. likely positions are at OT and on the D line, which are also the targeted positions for use in the first round. So I think things could change after Free Agency begins for us?

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. However, we have a lot of money to spend in Free Agency, and once we make a few splashes our needs may change.

yup, we bought this coming offseason with the horrible year we just had. Now I hope we get what we paid for.

we definitely need a #1 WR, but we need Defensive Line too (and linebackers and offensive Line). You gotta figure Eberflus is chomping at the bit as a defensive coach. Hes gonna get some dogs on the DL and the OL too, just dont know what order they will come in, and whether itll be through free agency or the draft or trade. I guess it all comes down to the grades they have on WRs vs D line outside of the top two guys

well I do think we mostly agree, but if I thought that one of the two Defensive Linemen was a generational talent, id take them. Its not just a matter of numbers, but it is a matter of whether the player is worth the value, and if you can get two firsts, neither of those guys is worht that, as far as I can see.

I would love to get a glimpse of what Poles and Eberflus really think about a lot of players on this roster, including Fields. This offseason is going to be fascinating and full of surprises.

right, I agree

and its still just a one year deal. its more development time, like a super draft pick, but Poles isnt tied to him, and can cut him in training camp or anytime, theres no real cap ramifications.

yup, it's a decent move, and it wasnt a four year deal, so that still isn't a Poles core move. It's just incremental stuff. I cant wait for Free Agency to begin. tampering period starts March 13th.

well if you were going to trade him, youd also want to shut him down this week. I dont think we are trading him, but they would shut him down either way i think?

Yeah, he has a lot of ability, but is he a soldier? It's getting more and more clear to me, we are an expansion team with Fields, the #2 pick, and a wide open cap. Every position could turn over. No one is safe. Every player on the roster is competing with the rookie class and the free agent class. Poles will build this team from the ground up, and that means creating a roster of talent that has an identity. What is Jenkins' character? He could be here next year, or he could be a backup here or not here at all. We all see the upside of his talent, but being a football player is about more than that. And thank God I think Poles knows this. Finally.