BearFan PHX

One good thing is that a lot of teams will have to release players for cap reasons, so there will be reasonably priced free agents for one year deals

thats not true tho. The salary portion moves to the new team, but if you cut the p;layer, you dont pay the salary either, but if you trade him, the guaranteed money accelerates into your cap - you cant get rid of guaranteed money with a trade. So you can't trade cap problems away with Mack or Quinn for example. "In terms of salary cap impact, a trade is essentially the same as releasing a player. If a player is traded at the deadline, all future prorated money will accelerate into the next season. For some teams, that takes certain players off the table if their signing bonuses and other prorated bonuses are large. In general, if a player's dead money charge in a given year will prevent him from being released the following year, it will also prevent him from being traded during the given season." https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/why-nfl-trades-are-rare/1fwllykgo2amj1dka7oj352ah6

One assumes there will be a bunch of cheap one year deals for good free agents. One also assumes there may be another Tampa Bay situation where players agree to go to one team to make a run on their cheap one year deal too tho. Also, I think whether you cut or trade, guaranteed money stays on your cap and doesn't go with the player in either scenario.

I think to make your analogy work, you have to look at the average player taken at whatever position in the first round, or maybe a great player, and average one and a miss.

Here's an interesting name. Kris Richard. He helped build the legion of doom in Seattle. One thing I REALLY REALLY like about Pete Carroll's system, is that there are specific approved types of tackles. If you get your guy down but you DON'T wrap him up in one of the approved ways that's a FAIL on video in his system. In other words, he might be the cure for our inability to tackle, and the medicine Jackson sorely needs too. https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/kris-richard-candidate-for-defensive-coordinator/?fbclid=IwAR2KgMWpm6Z3E8xzDzuuF38i0pwbfxSvO4Zd1EOBGISrgintKyniUt0cCn4

I'm down with Rodgers too. It's time for him to move up, and who knows? Maybe he will be great - he certainly has the pedigree.

I agree. But you also need some superstars, so trading down out of a top ten pick isnt automatically a smart move, but I think after that, as you get past 15 etc, it's probably a general rule that trading down is a good thing, and the only thing that breaks it is a certain player falling that's a higher value than the current pick. But if we are talking in general, with an average player for that pick at each draft position, trading down after the top 10- or 15 players is probably always a good idea.

I think it depends on which area of the draft. Top 10 picks are much more likely to result in pro bowlers than picks 11-20 for example. So the 5th pick overall will be more likely to find a pro bowler than an equivalent tradedown. But between picks 20 and 50 for example? I think you're absolutely right. If you can find a partner that is willing to trade up, it's probably a great move. And then you have to consider the people making the picks, because if they are horrible, then a top 10 pick is a lot less likely to yield a pro bowler.

Im not sure of the rules, but at some point you have to have the cap space to afford to franchise him before you trade him. And there is always the possibility that we get stuck with his contract which would sink us. And the other teams know this too, which reduces his trade value. We might just have to let him go. What would the draft compensation for that be?

I don't want someone with the opposite scheme - I want someone smart who knows how to call plays and read an opponent's intentions. I want someone who understands the abilities and limitations of each player and plays to strengths. I want someone good. They dont need to blitz on every down just to prove the Pagano's fewer blitzes were wrong. Had Pagano known when to call man and zone with a crystal ball, we'd have a top defense even without blitzing. ANd Im not anti blitz either. I just dont think anything about Pagano - including his opposite, is worth considering. Just get someone good who gets the job done well.

I agree with all of this - I've been thinking the same. Except I don't want Pace back after next year, no matter what the team does. I mean yes i suppose, if he fills the team with undrafted rookies that all become pro bowlers and they go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl by 1,000 points, then would you bring him back? I GUESS so. But in the real world, if they make Pace live with his own mess, with no future value allowed to be spent now, fine. You're right they wont get the best candidates anyway. Kind of like how we had to have FOx before we could get a young up and coming genius. Except we got Nagy instead. But all of that is predicated on the idea that a great hire isn't interested. If you speak to someone and they're willing to brave through next year so that it will be their 2021 draft picks they begin the 2022 season with, then don't hesitate to lose Pace.

yeah we do have some younger players we can build on. Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson, Tashaun Gipson, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, some of the interior OL, and some rotational players on the D line too. But we have no QB, no pass protection and we no pass rush - and THAT is football. And we haven no money. Fire Pace?

Yeah that really is kind of shocking. I mean, even Bill Belichick passed on Tom Brady 5 times, but once he had him in camp, he was smart enough to see he was worth keeping. I don't really know what any of these people are doing to help our team that we couldn't have done better. And that is shocking, because i think that in general GMs have a much better perspective than we can every have. I think we are foolish to think we could actually do a good job as GM of a pro team. But i dont see this crew doing any better. Watch them give them ANOTHER year. "Blah blah, covid wasnt their fault blah blah coach and Gm of the year blah blah playoffs two out of three years" YEAH but did you look at the team? Did you watch them play? they arent ascending. They arent progressing. Oh it's all so stupid.

you CAN "tag and trade" but you need the cap room to tag, and to hold that space until you trade. And if teams know you NEED to trade him, the price goes down. And you might be stuck with him, which means all that money tied up. https://withthefirstpick.com/2020/03/21/nfl-5-franchise-tagged-players-most-likely-to-get-traded/

I think Nagy is trying to control Mitch fromt he sideline like a video game, and you need to have an actual QB and let them play. Sure you create the plays, but they don't play themselves, someone needs to make the reads, and adjust. Most plays are "broken" plays in the sense that some kind of adaptation occurs after the snap. Nagy didnt give Mitch the space to do that. And in no way am I saying i think Mitch would have succeeded with it either.

agree with all of that. Miller and Wims drop a lot of balls too - and it's the same issue - concentration, discipline. I feel like we've been drafting based on upside, and not looking enough at production, which proves the intangible parts a 40 time doesn't reveal. Also, MT had played only 13 games in college - drafted on potential. Nagy hadn't called plays in KC until the last few games, and screwed them our of the playoffs by - wait for it - getting away from the run. Hired on potential. Fire Pace. And let the new guy do what he thinks is right - and that will be to fire everyone else, and to choose people who have proven something somewhere.

sure but after it happened the first time a GOOD coaching staff would have been talking about it in the week leading up to the game so the player is prepared to walk away. No matter WHAT he said.

2 or 3 for me Foles and a High Draft pick. Not that I LIKE Foles, but he has so much dead money, and whoever it is is a placeholder until the High Draft pick is ready by week 4 to 8.

the next GM is going to have major problems to fix, and i think we may need to give him a year to just burn with no expectations. And youre right, WIms and Miller are idiots - also, the same player goads them each into a punch? What does that say about our coaching. I wanna wake up tomorrow to hear that Pace is fired.

It's been said and re-said over the past few weeks, but there is nothing above average about any of this, therefore, there is nothing to lose in blowing it all up. It's not like you want to save any part of it. If this was draw poker, and you could take 5 new cards, you would.

With Smith out, and still missing Goldman, we are open up the middle. I expect the Saints to run Kamara down our throats, and when we adjust, Brees will pick a 6 man coverage and over eager linebackers apart with play action. Those zones get a lot bigger when people are staying up front to watch for the run.

Sure, but Nagy is on the record as saying he wants a lot of deep shots, so this is a chicken egg kind of thing. Is it a matter of Mitch not being given the opportunity to throw deep and that's why the sample size is too small through no fault of his own? or is it that the coaching staff knows he cant throw deep so they dont call those plays much anymore? We know the defenses are cheating up so its not like the opponent's game plan is taking that away. Or maybe this is just Charles Leno killing everything because we know Mitch wont have time for a 7 step drop to get to those deep routes anyway. Either way, I'm coming around to seeing that that's Pace's fault. Trubisky AND Leno. And Nagy.

I said to fire Nagy around week 12 last year, give Mitch a different look and if he couldnt make it, then move on and draft a QB this year. I said if we didnt, wed lose not only this one year, but the defense would regress. I honestly think nothing positive that ends in a Super Bowl can begin until Nagy is gone.

I dunno if this is just trying to gain leverage, or he means it, but apparently Watson is following Chicago weather forecasters on twitter LOL If Nagy and Pace get one more year, can you imagine them trading the future to get this guy to prove that Nagy was good and it was Trubisky that was the problem? And do you think that would work? To me it sounds like it would just cost us the chance to get more OL, and other players, and end in the same result. https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/fans-react-deshaun-watson-twitter-likes/?fbclid=IwAR3-0IRwA96mUuRlkMRirbuV9cX8jzhAXzuXgGpO2rfHfXrGTPX1Oez5Lyg

Hey Guys, So, this weekend we will all probably watch more than one game. When you do, pay attention to the rhythm of the other teams you watch. Notice how they gain momentum. They may not convert third downs and have to punt, but they look like they know what they're doing. In short, they look professional. We watch the Bears. Probably 85% of the games I watch are Bears games. I see the opponent for sure, but I see them in the context of this crazy rhythmless game. When I watch any other teams go at it, they may be bad teams, they may make bad decisions or plays, but you can feel the structure around them. The Bears never have that. And this is what coaching LOOKS like. Notice it when you watch other games. It's easy to see. They all look like football is supposed to - like a Madden game. Even when they are losing or winning, the pace feels like football. Conversely, about 10 years ago I was flipping through channels in the middle of the day. I didn't have NFL network, and I don't think it was football season, so when I saw a replay of a high school game was on ESPN, I thought Id watch for a few minutes. I watched a team in green on offense break the huddle and get into their stances in the O line, and before the ball was even snapped I knew I was looking at the best coached team I'd ever seen. They moved together like a Roman phalanx. Regardless of their abilities as players, together they were a psychological steamroller that would roll you over. You couldn't even really see any of them as individuals. They were a machine - a team. Later I found out I was watching DeLaSalle High School football, and at that time the team hadn't lost a game in like 10 years or something. And of course players only stay in high school 4 years, and probably only start for two or less. This is pure coaching. It lept off the screen immediately. When you see it lacking on the Bears, you'll know it's time to fire Nagy. You'll know just how bad we've been for so long. Even when we rode Grossman to an unlikely superbowl - it was more like winning a raffle than beating opponents with a plan. You can see a team just by the way they line up, and work together. If it looks like a machine, like a dance, it's in rhythm, and the players have bought into it. It it looks like a bunch of guys trying to keep everything from blowing up as individuals, that's not a team.