BearFan PHX

really cool analysis Adam. Thanks for doing all that work and sharing it. It's worth noting that one of the big point successes here is Leonard Floyd too. Pace has made some good picks and some bad picks, and as you say, a weighted random generator would have done no worse. That is no competitive edge.

Yup - I know we agree, and have for a long time. I get the idea that MT was bad and his choice wasn't Nagy's fault. But there is so much that Nagy has screwed up too. Either way, you're right, they did get this year. And one wonders whether they were told that they might get more than that if they "show improvement" To me, this is a clear indictment of the McCaskeys at this point. I've been a kool aid drinking optimistic Bears fan for many decades. In my regular life I am upbeat, positive, optimistic - Im not the kind to look on the dark side of things. But this has gotten so bad now, I want to give up on the team and pick a new one. In fact i have decided to do that, and I am finding that my heart won't let go. So I guess I'm stuck here. They don't deserve us, our interest etc. They really don't, but I don't think I can really walk away. Maybe I just won't watch. Eh thats a lie too. Dammit.

yeah I wont make the same mistake again this year. Im saying how it should be, and youre saying hoe McCaskey sees it. We are both right. Nagy is not going to get us a Super Bowl, and some incremental progress might well be enough for McCaskey to keep them around. Youre predicting whether they will keep their jobs, Im saying whether they SHOULD keep their jobs.

I dunno, safely being able to deliver a 9-8 season, and being able to ever deliver a Super Bowl are two really different things.

Yes. This is absolutely possible. The question that should be asked (and isnt being asked) isn't whether we are improving, but instead, does this group have a chance to win a Super Bowl? And the answer is no. For decades we have seen the cycle - the team goes 5-11, then has an easier schedule the next year, goes 9-7, maybe win some coaching awards for the big turnaround. THen with a stronger schedule, we are 6-10 again, and repeat. This is the life cycle of a mediocre team. An 8-8 team in the abstract, that can beat the bad teams, but cannot repeatedly defeat the good ones. And for decades we've seen Bears ownership reward it, and then after a second cycle, replace it with more mediocrity. Nagy, getting in as the 7th seed on an 8-8 record is not a reason to keep you around. Going 10-7 this year with an early playoff exit is NOT growth. grrrr

I'd love to see those bookend tackles, and I wouldnt be too upset that Nagy and Pace wont be the ones picking the QB of the future. But that said, if we can get any of the top 5 QBs, and it costs us this years 1st and next years 1st to do it, plus maybe a 3rd or something, I'd be down to do that too. Not becasue I trust Pace to pick the best out of the 5, but because I think any of the five are worth it, and we need a QB.

in general, given an average distribution of talent in a given draft, and given an average distribution of needs on a given team, this makes sense. Trading down gives you more players. You could for example draft two players for one position, buying insurance that one of them might pan out. Of course there is game changing talent available in the top of the first round every year that really cant be paralleled with other players either. And then there are need positions, like QB, where you need to have a guy that's one of the best 15 in the world to have a realistic shot at a Super Bowl. If you already have a Pat Mahomes, then trading down is often a very good strategy. and of course, when good players are falling because of positional needs over the previous ten picks, then you dont want to trade down, but to grab that guy when you can. So in general, as a rule, you're probably right. But in specific, I suppose it depends on each situation. If it was always good to trade down, then no one would ever agree to your trade, because theyd be trading up, and would need to think they were winning too. So I guess in the history of the NFL, every trade down trade ever made was accompanied by a trade up trade as well?

totally agree with your moneyball point of view.

I think they devalue future picks vs this year picks? And if you think the #3 QB is gonna be the guy, i guess hes worth almost anything. But can we know how any of these guys will actually be?

yeah wasnt his arm is incredible?!! but he looks like one of the keebler elves. then again, there is no logical reason why Kyler Murray should be able to play in the league, and yet...

true, but then substitute whoever the 5th QB taken is for my comment. I dont trust Pace to make a good decision between the five, but I feel like you cant really go wrong with any of them. Or rather, that the risk isnt easy to see at this point before they play in the NFL.

lets hope, because NE is poised to jump ahead of us for Mac Jones

well the price of trading up has been set, and it aint cheap.

ah yes, then we agree

I think it will take more than a 3rd and a 5th too. And if yout hink Jones is the guy, you do it.

they would have had him play his 5th year option this year, and extend him for next year. They could also have given him a bunch of money up front, which amortizes over the length of the contract, and had a lower salary if they needed to keep Mack ro someone under the cap for a super bowl window.

I would like to see this.

yes, but if it takes you longer to wind up and heave it, then you have to make decisions even earlier, youre more at the mercy of pressure when you do throw, becasue contact can cause interceptions, and the ball velocity is still slow, so you need to do everything even faster. Have you seen tape on Dalton, watched him throw? He looks like he's throwing a bowling ball.

sure, but their starters are backup level too, so they probably think they are creating a competition, so musical chairs again.

right, a run blocker more than a pass blocker, but since we have guards, the sportswriters say he will compete for RT, but he was up for LT last year in Denver, so who knows. One wonders if the team even knows yet, or if theyre just getting bodies and will play musical chairs again this year like last year

So I assumed that Wilkenson will compete at RT, becasue that's what all the articles said, but in looking for highlight film ont he guy (which i didnt find) I found some articles about how he was competing to be the starting LT last year in Denver. So hmmmm. What does it mean? I surely dont know more than the sportswriters do.

Im not really talking about distance, but velocity. If you even watch his highlights from last season you see he has to put a LOT of body behind each throw (no flick of the wrist like Wilson) and the ball moves slow, its easy to see. BUT he is smart, and knows how to read a defense. If Nady is a magic offensive guru, maybe Dalton can execute and it'll look amazing. But I wouldnt put a ton of money on that.

Yes, while Trubisky cant read a Defense, Dalton has a weak arm and isnt a threat to run. Daltons delivery is slow and he looks to heave the ball with his whole body, and the velocity is still really slow after all that effort. And it takes time to deliver a ball with that much motion, and is impossible with someone hanging on you. BUT Dalton reads defenses a lot better than Trubisky does. If you keep the pocket clean (lol) and get guys open with good route running, he can be serviceable - but then again so can a lot of guys. Hes not special, but he is definitely smart and knows the game.

LOL Grizzly, it sure is! I think the problem with Leno is that these stats all grade how well he handles the guy he engages with. But the myriad of times he took the wrong guy, and double teamed with the LG, while letting someone go free doesnt show up in this stat. What they see is that the guy Leno mistakenly took didnt get in, and of course not because it was a double team. If thats the case, and he is just grading out average even with double teaming help, then he is actually one of the worst OTs in the league. And he is one of the worst OTs in the league. Week in and week out, he blocked the wrong guy and got no movement / didnt provide protection. Weve seen our QBs running from free blockers, weve seen running bakcs encounter first contact at or behind the line of scrimmage. Hopefully Pace sees this and will do something about it, but, I wont BET that he will again, because I was totally wrong about that. I bet that wasnt as dumb as he now seems to be.

nah he's more of a right tackle from what I read. And anyway, the crow Im eating is just how stupid Pace is, so Im good with that