BearFan PHX

Fair enough - thanks for saying! We can agree to disagree on Leno. For what it's worth, in today's Sun Times, there is an article about draft choices, and the article says the first pick should go to Leno's replacement. To be fair (and Stinger will like this) the plan they outline is starting the rookie at OG and letting Leno play at OLT until the rookie is ready. In that case, I'd have been right that Leno needs replacing, but Stinger would win the bet! Damn! LOL But Im just saying, it isnt just me that thinks this.

yeah I think thats all I'm saying. If someone offers a 3rd for him, you jump on it. I still think changes are coming on the OL (duh that i think that hahaha) March 18th and soon thereafter will be very interesting.

yeah Ashkum, so the big disagreement is on Cohen, and I just think he has trade value worth investigating. I dont think any of us are really that far apart.

I'll add this, two years ago I said we should blow up the WR roster. Everyone here told me I was crazy. We were all crying about losing Kendall Wright and Cameron Meredith. And I was right. Pace cleaned house and we got a lot of new WRs, and our WR group was great. I think what's happening here is that we are Bears fans, and so we grow attached to players on the roster and get defensive thinking that cuts or trades are being disloyal or something. But you have to do what's best for the roster, best for the Bears. ANd I think changes on the OL are coming, and I think Floyd will get restructured or traded. Amukumara and Gabriel are already cut. So this is all about Cohen and Patterson? Neither is even a starter at their position. And again, Im not even saying to cut or trade Patterson, Im just saying you have to listen to offers.

No I didnt say anything about getting rid of either of those two players. But the idea that someone had a bad season isnt a reason to keep them either. Which player(s) are you talking about, because I see each as a unique situation. I am not saying trade everyone, and I am not saying keep everyone. I'm saying I (and half the sporting world) called the release of Prince and Gabriel. It is equally expected that Floyd will not play next year under the current contract. None of this is controversial at all. So what are we talking about? Cohen? He tries to outrun the whole team and ends up getting pushed out of bounds too much. And hes too small to run hard between the tackles. And Patterson? I LIKE Patterson. Im not even saying to trade him, Im saying its something to THINK about, but it's right on the line. Hes worth something to us for sure, and we could probably get something for him. Im really not understanding why you guys think Im saying to blow everything up, cuz Im just not. But when you say we have to step forwward with the talent we have or blow everything up, I dont agree. There are other plays that are neither of those two things. ANd that's what Im discussing.

We want to get rid of big contract guys who arent playing at average levels. That's what it's about. Floyd is definitely one of those. He's gonna get $13Mil for this year. No way he is worth that. You may say we should rework his contract. Ok cool, but that's the same as cutting him and then resigning him in free agency, and out of every possibility is he the best option for the same money? What if you got a 4th round draft pick if you promised to sign ANY free agent except Floyd? That's a trade scenario. If it helps,. I'm all in on extending Robinson. He's great. Im very excited to see Mack, Hicks, Goldman, Smith, Jackson and Fuller. I really like Trevathan too, but he is getting older, and may be too expensive. Some like Kwit as a replacement, others like Pierre-Louis. If we can find a way to keep Trevathan, so much the better. I think we were right to cut Amukamara. $9Mil was way too much to pay for him. You can find a free agent who will play better than he did for cheaper. Same with Gabriel, especially with good players like Miller, Wims and hopefully Ridley too. So trying to paint me as a negative nancy is really not gonna work. There is lots of talent on this team to be excited about. Hell, I havent even complained much about Trubisky, and I dont think Ive criticized Pace much either. I think Nagy has real problems. I think Leno is atrocious. I think those are not radical opinions. This isnt an emotional thing about either loving or hating the team, nor is it about generally having a negative outlook. It's about how awful our OL was last year, and how it made everything else worse. Amukamara and Gabriel are already gone. Floyd is serious trade bait. So what's this grand charge about? That I think we wont resign Cohen after next year so better to get a pick now? That I recognize that Nagy didnt utilize Patterson much and I think his value is useful elsewhere? Or simply that I think Leno was awful? He WAS awful. He was terribly horribly awful. I havent heard anyone here say that Leno is GOOD. The only argument I hear is that he has $7Mil of dead cap space so we have to keep him. If you beleive, as I do, that our entire season fell apart because of Leno, then it is foolish to trade a whole season away for $7Mil in cap room. I heard the same arguments before we cut Parkey too. In his case it was $5Mil. Maybe we are looking for a trade for Leno too. Anyway, there is a lot of good on this roster, and I think we could have a playoff year, but we need a few things, and to my eye, OLT is a big one. Lastly, I'll add this. I think Whitehair is decent, and I expect Daniels to look better next year too. I can live with Massie for one more year, so I'm really just looking at Leno and someone has to come in for Coward, because he didnt belong there either. It was Long's demise that did that, I dont think they ever planned on him being a starter. Anyway, int he NFL you have to give to get, and in a good trade both sides get value. Trading doesnt bring us closer to an overhaul, we lose one player, but we gain another.

hmmm, maybe I want to trade everyone so the odds are higher Ill win the bet hahahah Its like this thought Ive had for a while now: When I was a kid, I used to dream of being the Bears GM. In a way we all still do. We have things we hope will happen etc. But I realized I'm not good enough to be the GM. I probably couldnt put together a Super Bowl winning team no matter how much I think I know what Im talking about as a fan. Then I got a new dream. My new dream is to be GM of the Packers. Because i KNOW I could ruin a team. THAT I could do.

oh crap did I lose the bet already?

well it depends of course. Floyd is due $13Mil on the cap this year. No way we should pay that. If we think about restructuring him, then he is just another free agent really, and there are plenty to look at. And if you can get something in return, even better. Therefore he is trade bait. Cohen is similar in that he isnt a core player, but some team may want to trade something for him. The alternative is keeping him one more year and then no re-upping him. Better to get something. The real question is Patterson. He fits what you're talking about. He is a good player and has value to us, and presumably another team as well. He costs $5 Mil on the cap, which is probably just about right, but if you add in some draft picks, then he's worth trading. You mentioned the holes created by these guys leaving. Floyd and Cohen dont really leave big holes. They werent filling them anyway. And if you trade them, you get draft picks you can use to get players, or better the picks you have by packaging. For Patterson, the question to me is whether you can take his value (and I admit he def has value to our team) and put it at another position that we need more. Im good with keeping Patterson too. But if it was the difference between a great OLT and not, Id take the OT.

Yeah, I can see keeping Patterson too. Im just saying, you can get a returner for less than $5 Mil and year, and if you put that money into the OL, you'll probably see more wins as a result. Also, Im not saying that trading good players is the key to success! That's silly! Im saying that we shouldnt be shy about trading players who have some skills if we can get value for them. Im saying we havent been used to having excess talent to trade, so we feel pain when we think of trading anyone that can do anything good at all. But you only have so much cap space to go around, and if you shuffle value from Cohen to the OL or TE for for instance, it might well pay off better in terms of wins. The question I think you have to ask at this point, trying to fix a roster and avoids going into full rebuilding mode, is whether any of these guys are CORE players you build a team around. And if they arent, and you still need people like that, then a trade is worth considering. We need real help at (in no particular order) OL, TE, QB, OLB, DE, CB, S and ILB - holding on to value at RB2, KR/gadget and and OLB thats really more of a backup is hard to justify in the light of those other pressing needs. That's all Im saying.

I would trade Cohen, Floyd and Patterson. Both are good players that have something to offer. The Bears have been such a bad team for so long, that we aren't used to trading good players. Teams like the Patriots do it all the time. If you think about it, you can't get much in a trade if the player you're trading isn't worth something too, so you only get value in trades when you trade players that are good. If moving those guys gave us what we needed to fix the offensive line and put another playmaker on defense for example, then it'd translate into more wins than keeping them would. Hell, if they amounted to enough that we could trade one of our 2nd rounders plus what we got from those guys and get into the middle of the first round for a real QB, that'd be worth it in the long run too. I do see value to our team for each of them. I see upside, and I see talent. But none of them is a core player you build your roster around, and until that is set, having fancy toys is a waste of money. Last year should have proved that.

I dunno if you can believe anything Pace says at this time of year - and that's as it should be. I agree with Stinger that he probably has a bunch of contingencies, and some of the include moving on from Mitch. So, we will just see how everything falls. (And replace Leno of course) hahahaha

yeah, I think I was only incivil with one member, and he's not here anymore. We can even disagree strongly (although I dont think the leno issue is all that passionate for any of us) and still do it with a smile. I love this board.

Just for the record: I said: "I say Leno doesn't start at OLT on snap #1 of the 2020 regular season, you say he does" And Stinger said "The only presser is not because of injury." so if Leno starts at another position on the OL, I win the bet. Also, I am totally enjoying this discussion, and if it isn't clear to readers, I like and respect Stinger, we just disagree, as sports fans do.

Bragging rights is good enough for me. No one has to chug anything.

well Im not sure I am any better at chugging a beer in one gulp than Leno is at run blocking. I will do my best if I lose!

LOL. Stinger - you're on. And I agree, if Leno is injured, then it's a push.

I see a lot of people taking Jordan Fuller. I havent seen him play so I dont know how good he is or not, but I am pretty good friends with his mother, and their whole family is incredibly special. His mom Cindy is one of the most popular background singers in the music business. She tours with Bruce Springsteen, Steely Dan and the Stones, as well as working on a ton of records and commercials etc. In addition to her incredible talent she is one of the sweetest and kindest and most authentic people I have ever met. I'm not personally religious, and I often find people who are very religious to be preachy or hypocritical. Not Cindy. She is religious and when you are in her immediate space, you can just feel the goodness pouring off of her. It's a hard thing to describe. It's like star power, but it's more authentic and wholesome. Whatever Jordan's measure-ables are add the X factor to him, because I know he was raised about as right as any one ever was. Wherever he lands, I wish him well in the NFL, and some team is going to be very lucky to have him in their locker room. And the moment will never be too big for him, he's used to all that.

https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/resources/mini-encyclopedia-of-be/sunk-cost-fallacy/ For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat just to “get their money’s worth”. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because she feels that she has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction (Thaler, 1999).

well it's a prediction, neither of us KNOWS of course. But the logical fallacy is the idea that you have to continue with a losing idea because of "sunk costs." And it's a generalized logical fallacy it isn't just about Leno or whatever, it's a standard thing they teach in business school. Of course that doesnt mean they dont still think he is their best alternative - maybe they do, we just disagree on that. So Stinger, do you and I have a gentleman's wager (no $) on this? I say Leno doesn't start at OLT on snap #1 of the 2020 regular season, you say he does?

That is a logical fallacy - the trap of "sunk costs" If we keep him, we pay $10 Mil this year against the cap. If we cut him, we lose $7 Mil on the cap. We can lower that to $2 Million this year by pushing $5mil to next years cap. So we save at least $3Mil cutting (or trading) him. But regardless of all this money stuff, he is TERRIBLE. They MUST see it. I think he might stay as a backup, but he does not start opening day 2020.

I really think you guys are missing the writing on Leno's wall. I dont see any way he is the starter opening day 2020.

No surprise. The big questions ahead are what to do about Floyd, and whether the team wants to allot money on Patterson, or use it somewhere else. He's a good player, but you cant have everything, and they struggled to find a role for him last year, so what they do will be interesting. And, I wouldn't be me if I didnt also add - what they do with Leno... TRADE!

But the reason he'd need a skyhook is becasue the pass rusher is in his face. If Leno does ANYTHING, this is at least an 8 yard gain.

Looking at the Bears’ cap situation, I think we have a lot of options for cuts and trades. At this moment we have an estimated $13 Million in cap room. -------------------------------- LEONARD FLOYD -------------------------------- Floyd is due $13,222,000 this year with no dead cap. If you cut or trade him, you instantly gain $13 Mil in cap room, which can sign two or three quality free agents. There is no way Floyd plays under this contract for us in 2020. You can pretty much consider him cut and add $13Mil to your cap. Then you can think about what you WOULD pay him as a free agent. Aaron Lynch got $1.5 Million to play backup to Floyd. Floyd is probably worth $3 or $4 Million. You could choose to restructure him, but that’s basically the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent, and there are other options out there too, so I will put him down as a cut, and you can add his name to the pool of free agent replacements. If there is interest in the league for him at more than what we value him at (assuming he would restructure with the new team, or they wouldn’t want him either!), then you could trade him and gain some picks. He’s probably worth a 4th or a 5th rounder. So if you like any free agent as much as Floyd, then you get a free draft pick trading Floyd and choosing them that you don’t get if you resign Floyd. CUT = $13 Million saved TRADE = $13 Million saved + 5th round pick (if there is interest) RESULT = $13 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLB -------------------------------- PRINCE AMUKAMARAH -------------------------------- Amukamarah is in the last year of his deal. He is due $9,000,000 with no dead cap cost. He’s playing far below that. There is no way he will be playing in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. Again, you can choose to restructure him, but that’s the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent. Trades are less likely because he is an older player in decline. RESULT = $9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at CB. -------------------------------- TAYLOR GABRIEL -------------------------------- Gabriel is due $6,500,000 this year, and has a dead cap number of $2,000,000. Cutting or trading him opens up $4,500,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play for us in 2020 under this deal. With Miller, Ridley and Wims all waiting in the wings, Gabriel’s worth to this team is limited, and his productivity has been lacking. He may have some value in a trade, but either way he is an easy decision. RESULT = $4.5 Mil cap savings, leaves very little need to replace him. -------------------------------- CHARLES LENO -------------------------------- Leno is due $10,294,000 this year and $7.376,000 of it is dead cap money. Cutting or trading him opens up $2,918,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. If you cut him, you can find an equal replacement for less than the $3M you save. More likely, that $3 Mil gets lumped in with more from other sources to sign a free agent who would be a vast improvement. For me, cutting him seems obvious. He is atrociously horrible. RESULT = $2.9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLT. -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- If you cut these four players, you gain $29,640,000 in cap room, and you need to sign OLB, LOT, CB – you could afford $10 Mil this year for each. That means you can afford some pretty good players and significantly upgrade the pass protection, pass rush and coverage. These are the basic obvious moves the Bears have to make. Here are some additional players to consider -------------------------------- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON -------------------------------- Patterson is set to make $5,750,000 with only $1,000,000 in cap space. He has shown talent and heart, but Nagy had a hard time knowing where to use him. He is worth the money if they find a role for him. If they aren’t going to utilize him, he is certainly worth something in trade, and opens up $4,750,000 in cap space, which could go to help the offense with a better TE or more help on the OL, and in the end that could be more valuable than Patterson is to us. RESULT = Trade Patterson, gain a pick and almost $5Mil in cap room, leaves a hole at kick returner. -------------------------------- ADAM SHAHEEN -------------------------------- Shaheen is set to make $1,880,626 with $609,644 in dead cap money. He’s shown nothing at all so far, and there is no way the Bears go into 2020 thinking he is the answer at TE. Maybe they still believe in his talent and will keep him around, but in no way will they be banking on him. If you can get something in trade for him, I think you do it. He will probably go on to be amazing with the Patriots. RESULT = Trade Shaheen, gain a pick and $1.2Mil in cap room, leaves no hole at all. -------------------------------- TREY BURTON -------------------------------- Burton is due $8,550,000 with $7,500,000 of it as dead money. Cutting him doesn’t gain much cap room. Restructuring his deal is likely. If there is a market for him around the league above what we would offer, then he is trade bait. I’d either redo his contract for around $4 Mil a year, and open up $4 Mil on the cap, or trade him for a 4th rounder or better. RESULT = Redo his contract and save $4Mil on the cap, or trade him for a mid round pick, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- BEN BRAUNECKER -------------------------------- Braunecker is due $1,618,750 with only $150,000 of dead cap space. He is as easy a cut as there is on this list. RESULT = Cut and save $1.4Mil, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- Moving all these players opens up $8.5 Mil to $10.5 Mil on the cap, and that’s enough for a real starting TE. Also, there’d probably be at least 2 mid round draft picks gained too. Follow my plan so far, and you have lost almost nothing, gained $38.5 Mil to $41.5 Mil on the cap to signed $10 Mil free agents at OLT, OLB, CB and TE and picked up a few extra mid round picks. Not to mention the other $13 Mil we already have to spend too, and our existing draft picks. This would be a serious overhaul of the team, and the only player you’d really miss is Patterson. This still leaves questions at QB and OG, but you’d have at least $6 Mil in cap and two 2nd round picks to address those positions with, and the new rookie QB could sit a year under Trubisky. -------------------------------- A COUPLE OTHERS -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ALLEN ROBINSON -------------------------------- Robinson is due $15,000,000 on the cap with only $1,000,000 in dead cap dollars. That means cutting him gives you $14 Mil more in cap room to sign a free agent. You’d definitely do your due diligence and see what that $14Mil could get you, but it is likely you’d put Robinson on the top of the WR free agency list and choose him again. He’s played very well for us and is a true #1 WR. Since this is the final year of his contract, we are likely to extend him. That could open up cap room too. In the end, I think it’s all a wash, and we resign him, and his 2020 cap number looks about the same as it does now. RESULT = no change -------------------------------- TARIK COHEN -------------------------------- Cohen is due $2,300,000 this year, with $158,000 in dead cap room, so cutting or trading him saves $2,144,000. He’s really not played that well. I know he’s a fan favorite, but he hasn’t been very productive in our offense this past year. He probably has some trade value, and if an offer came of a 4th rounder or better, I’d seriously consider moving him. This is his last year, and I don’t see us resigning him anyway. If your cap plans require the extra $2Mil, then he’s a possible cut. Otherwise, you probably keep him one more year if you don’t get a trade offer. If you DO get a trade offer, then you can bundle one of our existing 2nd rounders, along with 2 or 3 mid round picks from trades Ive proposed above to trade into the middle of the first round and snag an even better QB prospect. RESULT = Trade for draft pick(s) and $2.1Mil cap relief and improve your QB pick, leaves a hole at RB2 that can be filled in the 3rd round, or keep him one more year. -------------------------------- FINAL ANALYSIS -------------------------------- OFFENSE QB Trubisky, journeyman free agent /late first round pick RB Montgomery, 3rd round draft pick, possibly Cohen WR Robinson, Miller, Ridley, Wims TE *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLT *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLG Daniels OC Whitehair ORG 2nd round draft pick / journeyman Free Agent ORT Massie DEFENSE DE Hicks DT Goldman DE draft pick / Nichols / journeyman free agent OLB Mack ILB Smith ILB Pierre-Lewis OLB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** CB Fuller FS Jackson SS ??? CB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OK, so obviously we aren’t going to sign FOUR $10 Mil free agents. We need some of that money in free agency for the SS position, or an extra player on the OL, and just because you have $10 Mil to spend doesn’t mean that there is a $10 Mil player available. But you do see how we would have extra picks, and plenty of cap space to address all the holes if we follow this plan. We are not in trouble as a roster under the cap, we are FINE. We have the likelihood of adding a few picks too. We just need to choose well in free agency, and pick smart at the draft, and hope that the coaching staff knows how to develop and use these players. I think a pretty significant overhaul is coming, and it touches the positions we’ve been worst at and makes them legitimate strengths. Who are your favorite $10 Mil dollar free agents at LOT, OLB, CB and TE? Who is your favorite mid 1st to mid 2nd round QB in the draft?