BearFan PHX

well it's a prediction, neither of us KNOWS of course. But the logical fallacy is the idea that you have to continue with a losing idea because of "sunk costs." And it's a generalized logical fallacy it isn't just about Leno or whatever, it's a standard thing they teach in business school. Of course that doesnt mean they dont still think he is their best alternative - maybe they do, we just disagree on that. So Stinger, do you and I have a gentleman's wager (no $) on this? I say Leno doesn't start at OLT on snap #1 of the 2020 regular season, you say he does?

That is a logical fallacy - the trap of "sunk costs" If we keep him, we pay $10 Mil this year against the cap. If we cut him, we lose $7 Mil on the cap. We can lower that to $2 Million this year by pushing $5mil to next years cap. So we save at least $3Mil cutting (or trading) him. But regardless of all this money stuff, he is TERRIBLE. They MUST see it. I think he might stay as a backup, but he does not start opening day 2020.

I really think you guys are missing the writing on Leno's wall. I dont see any way he is the starter opening day 2020.

No surprise. The big questions ahead are what to do about Floyd, and whether the team wants to allot money on Patterson, or use it somewhere else. He's a good player, but you cant have everything, and they struggled to find a role for him last year, so what they do will be interesting. And, I wouldn't be me if I didnt also add - what they do with Leno... TRADE!

But the reason he'd need a skyhook is becasue the pass rusher is in his face. If Leno does ANYTHING, this is at least an 8 yard gain.

Looking at the Bears’ cap situation, I think we have a lot of options for cuts and trades. At this moment we have an estimated $13 Million in cap room. -------------------------------- LEONARD FLOYD -------------------------------- Floyd is due $13,222,000 this year with no dead cap. If you cut or trade him, you instantly gain $13 Mil in cap room, which can sign two or three quality free agents. There is no way Floyd plays under this contract for us in 2020. You can pretty much consider him cut and add $13Mil to your cap. Then you can think about what you WOULD pay him as a free agent. Aaron Lynch got $1.5 Million to play backup to Floyd. Floyd is probably worth $3 or $4 Million. You could choose to restructure him, but that’s basically the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent, and there are other options out there too, so I will put him down as a cut, and you can add his name to the pool of free agent replacements. If there is interest in the league for him at more than what we value him at (assuming he would restructure with the new team, or they wouldn’t want him either!), then you could trade him and gain some picks. He’s probably worth a 4th or a 5th rounder. So if you like any free agent as much as Floyd, then you get a free draft pick trading Floyd and choosing them that you don’t get if you resign Floyd. CUT = $13 Million saved TRADE = $13 Million saved + 5th round pick (if there is interest) RESULT = $13 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLB -------------------------------- PRINCE AMUKAMARAH -------------------------------- Amukamarah is in the last year of his deal. He is due $9,000,000 with no dead cap cost. He’s playing far below that. There is no way he will be playing in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. Again, you can choose to restructure him, but that’s the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent. Trades are less likely because he is an older player in decline. RESULT = $9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at CB. -------------------------------- TAYLOR GABRIEL -------------------------------- Gabriel is due $6,500,000 this year, and has a dead cap number of $2,000,000. Cutting or trading him opens up $4,500,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play for us in 2020 under this deal. With Miller, Ridley and Wims all waiting in the wings, Gabriel’s worth to this team is limited, and his productivity has been lacking. He may have some value in a trade, but either way he is an easy decision. RESULT = $4.5 Mil cap savings, leaves very little need to replace him. -------------------------------- CHARLES LENO -------------------------------- Leno is due $10,294,000 this year and $7.376,000 of it is dead cap money. Cutting or trading him opens up $2,918,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. If you cut him, you can find an equal replacement for less than the $3M you save. More likely, that $3 Mil gets lumped in with more from other sources to sign a free agent who would be a vast improvement. For me, cutting him seems obvious. He is atrociously horrible. RESULT = $2.9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLT. -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- If you cut these four players, you gain $29,640,000 in cap room, and you need to sign OLB, LOT, CB – you could afford $10 Mil this year for each. That means you can afford some pretty good players and significantly upgrade the pass protection, pass rush and coverage. These are the basic obvious moves the Bears have to make. Here are some additional players to consider -------------------------------- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON -------------------------------- Patterson is set to make $5,750,000 with only $1,000,000 in cap space. He has shown talent and heart, but Nagy had a hard time knowing where to use him. He is worth the money if they find a role for him. If they aren’t going to utilize him, he is certainly worth something in trade, and opens up $4,750,000 in cap space, which could go to help the offense with a better TE or more help on the OL, and in the end that could be more valuable than Patterson is to us. RESULT = Trade Patterson, gain a pick and almost $5Mil in cap room, leaves a hole at kick returner. -------------------------------- ADAM SHAHEEN -------------------------------- Shaheen is set to make $1,880,626 with $609,644 in dead cap money. He’s shown nothing at all so far, and there is no way the Bears go into 2020 thinking he is the answer at TE. Maybe they still believe in his talent and will keep him around, but in no way will they be banking on him. If you can get something in trade for him, I think you do it. He will probably go on to be amazing with the Patriots. RESULT = Trade Shaheen, gain a pick and $1.2Mil in cap room, leaves no hole at all. -------------------------------- TREY BURTON -------------------------------- Burton is due $8,550,000 with $7,500,000 of it as dead money. Cutting him doesn’t gain much cap room. Restructuring his deal is likely. If there is a market for him around the league above what we would offer, then he is trade bait. I’d either redo his contract for around $4 Mil a year, and open up $4 Mil on the cap, or trade him for a 4th rounder or better. RESULT = Redo his contract and save $4Mil on the cap, or trade him for a mid round pick, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- BEN BRAUNECKER -------------------------------- Braunecker is due $1,618,750 with only $150,000 of dead cap space. He is as easy a cut as there is on this list. RESULT = Cut and save $1.4Mil, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- Moving all these players opens up $8.5 Mil to $10.5 Mil on the cap, and that’s enough for a real starting TE. Also, there’d probably be at least 2 mid round draft picks gained too. Follow my plan so far, and you have lost almost nothing, gained $38.5 Mil to $41.5 Mil on the cap to signed $10 Mil free agents at OLT, OLB, CB and TE and picked up a few extra mid round picks. Not to mention the other $13 Mil we already have to spend too, and our existing draft picks. This would be a serious overhaul of the team, and the only player you’d really miss is Patterson. This still leaves questions at QB and OG, but you’d have at least $6 Mil in cap and two 2nd round picks to address those positions with, and the new rookie QB could sit a year under Trubisky. -------------------------------- A COUPLE OTHERS -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ALLEN ROBINSON -------------------------------- Robinson is due $15,000,000 on the cap with only $1,000,000 in dead cap dollars. That means cutting him gives you $14 Mil more in cap room to sign a free agent. You’d definitely do your due diligence and see what that $14Mil could get you, but it is likely you’d put Robinson on the top of the WR free agency list and choose him again. He’s played very well for us and is a true #1 WR. Since this is the final year of his contract, we are likely to extend him. That could open up cap room too. In the end, I think it’s all a wash, and we resign him, and his 2020 cap number looks about the same as it does now. RESULT = no change -------------------------------- TARIK COHEN -------------------------------- Cohen is due $2,300,000 this year, with $158,000 in dead cap room, so cutting or trading him saves $2,144,000. He’s really not played that well. I know he’s a fan favorite, but he hasn’t been very productive in our offense this past year. He probably has some trade value, and if an offer came of a 4th rounder or better, I’d seriously consider moving him. This is his last year, and I don’t see us resigning him anyway. If your cap plans require the extra $2Mil, then he’s a possible cut. Otherwise, you probably keep him one more year if you don’t get a trade offer. If you DO get a trade offer, then you can bundle one of our existing 2nd rounders, along with 2 or 3 mid round picks from trades Ive proposed above to trade into the middle of the first round and snag an even better QB prospect. RESULT = Trade for draft pick(s) and $2.1Mil cap relief and improve your QB pick, leaves a hole at RB2 that can be filled in the 3rd round, or keep him one more year. -------------------------------- FINAL ANALYSIS -------------------------------- OFFENSE QB Trubisky, journeyman free agent /late first round pick RB Montgomery, 3rd round draft pick, possibly Cohen WR Robinson, Miller, Ridley, Wims TE *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLT *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLG Daniels OC Whitehair ORG 2nd round draft pick / journeyman Free Agent ORT Massie DEFENSE DE Hicks DT Goldman DE draft pick / Nichols / journeyman free agent OLB Mack ILB Smith ILB Pierre-Lewis OLB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** CB Fuller FS Jackson SS ??? CB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OK, so obviously we aren’t going to sign FOUR $10 Mil free agents. We need some of that money in free agency for the SS position, or an extra player on the OL, and just because you have $10 Mil to spend doesn’t mean that there is a $10 Mil player available. But you do see how we would have extra picks, and plenty of cap space to address all the holes if we follow this plan. We are not in trouble as a roster under the cap, we are FINE. We have the likelihood of adding a few picks too. We just need to choose well in free agency, and pick smart at the draft, and hope that the coaching staff knows how to develop and use these players. I think a pretty significant overhaul is coming, and it touches the positions we’ve been worst at and makes them legitimate strengths. Who are your favorite $10 Mil dollar free agents at LOT, OLB, CB and TE? Who is your favorite mid 1st to mid 2nd round QB in the draft?

LOL WHY? It's the time of year we could discuss whether the bears should change cleats! Anything that gets discussion going is good!

Cohen is uncovered in the space in the flat. Thats the read. It's even the read Mitch made. But he had to throw it with the pass rusher in his face, and that's because of Leno.

you can see that Trubisky was under pressure when he released the ball, and Leno was the reason. Even with Cohen helping him with a chip. THe other two pass rushers are neutralized, Trubisky would have be clean here if it wasnt for Leno's block. And had Trubisky had a moment of peace to get the ball to Choen, he had a lot of space, and the weird pass patterns you're saying werent open (and they werent) would look more like downfield blockers on a punt return. I think that was the play design, and it all worked except for Leno.

no worries, I just wanted to make sure he didnt get cut because you left him off the list LOL Oh, it's the boring part of the season when nothing is happening, so we only have this kind of crap with each other to talk about!

YA! Roquan Smith is the future at ILB for us. Heck he's the right now too.

yup, and the rule is you can even cut him today and still designate him a June 1st cut. But yeah, they can bring him back until they have his replacement secured.

So in oversimplified terms, when you sign a player, you pay them two different ways. You agree on a yearly salary, which the player only gets if they arent cut. If you trade that player, the new team pays the agreed yearly salary, because what they traded for was the rights to the players contract. So if you cut or trade a player, the salaries and possible bonuses that could be earned all all gone from your cap. But if that was it, the players would be in a bind. They'd be subject to being cut any year. And teams compete for these players, so a good player is able to demand guaranteed money, also called a signing bonus. This is money the player gets when they sign the deal, and they get to keep no matter what (with very few exceptions not worth discussing here). If they play poorly or get injured, they still keep that money. Most players, especially the good ones are getting up to half up front in guaranteed money. For example, Mack's deal is a 6 year deal worth $141,000,000. Of that $141 Mil, $60MIl was guaranteed at signing. So calculating the cap hit of the yearly salary is easy. Whatever it is, that's what it is for that year. But if the team had to declare the entire signing bonus against the cap the year they gave the player the money, then they'd have to cut half their roster to be able to sign a guy like Mack. The entire 2019 salary cap was 181 Million, so youd need to spend $60Mil of that PLUS the other 20 Mil+ salary = $80 Mil off your $181 Mil cap in one year! Impossible! So the rule is, you give the player the upfront money in a lump sum check at signing, but you can prorate it across the years of the contract for the cap. So you'd pay $10 Mil of it each year across the 6 years. Cool. But what happens if you trade or cut the player? Then you have to pay the entire thing right then that year. In this way, players with large upfront money are kind of protected against being cut or traded for at least a few years, because teams cant take the cap hit to move them. Its kind of like how a kitchen contractor hasd all the leverage whn you give them the upfront portion of the contract before they start work. They have your money, but you have no kitchen. But then at the end, it's almost done and youre sitting on the final payment, and now you have all the leverage to make them finish the punch list. So players with big upfront contracts cant really be cut early in their deals, but then it gets easier to cut them, and the last year is basically a team option. This is why players often have huge salaries in the last year of their deal so they can go on TV and say they got a bigger contract than the last guy, when in truth, the team doesnt have to really honor it, and can renegotiate with them then or cut or trade them. This is why we cant trade Mack for at least a couple more years. There is another wrinkle that doesnt apply to Mack (yet) but does to Leno. Leno is in the second to last year of his deal. If we keep him, we will owe him $10,294,000 and that will cost our cap the same amount. If we cut him, we will have to pay back the remaining guaranteed money against the cap immediately, and that is $7,376,000 which is a lot of cap room to waste on a player who isnt on your team. Or put another way, you GOTTA pay the $7.3 Mil either way, and it costs you another $3Mil to keep him. So cutting him saves $3Mil more against the cap. But either way you're paying $7Mil. BUT The cap year is based on June 1st. If you cut him after June 1st, then it's like you cut him after the 2020 season was over, so you pay $2Mil against this years cap, and $5Mil against next years. THAT is doable, and opens up about $5 Mil for a free agent replacement. Mack is still too early in his deal for a June 1st designation, and his deal is so huge anyway, that you could realistically only trade him in the last year or two of his deal. Not until 2023.

to reiterate what Adam said, there is no way we can afford to trade Mack, the cap hit would be devastating. It's really irresponsible of these reporters to even float the theory. It'd be like saying we are bringing Walter Payton out of retirement. Fun idea, but with only a moment's research, provably impossible.

completely. Leno you could cut, Mack? no way.

+1

I'll bet you Leno is not a starter on the Bears OL on opening day. No need for $, we can just shake on it, and see who is right.

I disagree. If we deem Leno a post June 1st cut, we can spread it out, and afford to cut him this year. It is a logically fallacy to think that because you have already paid someone, that you have to play them. This is the fallacy of sunk costs., I do understand the argument of a cap hit being too large to swallow in a given year, but the June first designation makes this doable.

PFF is insane. I dont believe anything they say. I mean, Im sure they are right 50% of the time, but I dont know when theyre right and when theyre wrong. So I pay no attention to their stats.

I think Pace would know that no one would touch him again if he did that. And one assumes that you need owner approval for trading away first round picks? OK - just googled and found this quote from Mike MCCaskey: When approached about the Khalil Mack trade, McCaskey was on board. “I knew he was a dynamic player,” McCaskey said. “Ryan said it was an opportunity to get a premier player at a premier position in the prime of his career, and when you have an opportunity like that, you have to go for it." https://www.letsbeardown.com/articles/george-mccaskey-comments-on-nagypace-partnership-a/ So it sounds like there is an approval necessary...

agree!

in addition to his physical issues, being unable to sustain blocks etc, he was blocking the wrong guy all too often. That's not going to get better.

Hi Pix, I agree, it's good to see you post here. What if it was put a different way. Last season went very poorly and to change nothing would be like saying everything was fine, and so they felt they had to make some changes to shake things up. They knew they werent going to fire themselves (Pace and Nagy) so they went to the people who ran the positions that failed. OC and OL. That is almost the same as scapegoating, but from a different point of view, not purely political, but still systematic.

I dont think Howard has enough change of direction. I totally think this is a smart comment "I think someone hypothesized that the reason Hiestand lost his job was because he wanted to do more power blocking and Nagy did not. (My guess is Nagy needed a scape goat and Hiestand was one of a few options). " -- I think probably a combination of both and the horrible play of the OL in general. But it was a smart point you made.

I think we are going to cut Leno. If keeping him as the swing tackle backup saves a few buck to go towards the replacement OT so be it, but in no way do I think he will be a starter for us next year. He is easily the weakest link on the team, and personally bears a significant percentage of the blame for our season this year. It is rare that a single player could be responsible for so much of the failure. Especially a non QB. I urge anyone who disagrees to go to you tube and watch some of the weekly recaps on the BearsBarroom channel. The videos are called "the tape never lies" - if you watch those, you cant come away with anything but the idea that this guy is the worst lineman in all of football.