BearFan PHX

We're not done on the OL. In free agency I think we are at that point where there are a bunch of equally rated players around, and no one wants to be first to pay one. Pace is smart to bide his time. I also think that we will probably be taking an OG or OT in the 2nd round. Don't sleep on the OT position, no ones talking about it, but we may be looking there more than OG. I see at least 2 more players coming at OL before the draft and free agency are over.

I sure do like what I see from Tremaine Edmunds. If he is in the middle, I think he can do a lot of things for us, and Fangio would know just how to use him. In zone defense, he'd be another Urlacher, and imagine how much more effective that would be when we arent in cover 2 all the time. In man, he clearly has the skills to stay with TEs and even slot receivers. In this day and age of college running QBs, he is a spy too. He has the speed and tackling ability to shut that down in a hurry. And hes long enough for pass rush and as sure an open field tackler as Ive ever seen. He would be an excellent chess piece for Fangio.

well said, but not for Landry and a swap of first rounders too. You probably agreed when you said "something good in return"

Im not predicting that he will fall, Im saying, you play a game at #8, about which 8 players might get taken - not what you predict, but just every scenario. And if he falls to 8, then everyone would assume we werent interested and the team at 9 could pretty much know hed be available. So teams trading up would do business with them. Now we have insurance against that possibility. If the QBs all fall and everyone we think we're going to take goes first and no QBs go, were also screwed, but theres no lie we can tell to protect against that, becasue eveyrone knows theres no way we would be shopping Trublisky. So that's 4 out of the 8 possibles, 3 QBs and Barkley. Thats all Im saying, I totally agree he wont make it to 8, and I assume Pace knows that too. Still, it's a smart move to make. It also means that epople assume we're going WR with 8 too, if we need one SO bad that we'd trade Howard, so if say we have our eyes on a pass rusher, having done this smokescreen makes it less likely that a team who wants a pass rusher at 9, leapfrogs us to 7 to get him. that's all Im saying.

Howard isnt a change of pace back tho. Otherwise, all good points.

This is a smokescreen. They're thinking Barkley may fall, and they want people to think we aren't happy with Howard, so teams will think they may have to trade up with us if he's there. I'm sure it's part of a "top 8 players" game they are playing, and looking at how the board might fall. I wouldnt give it much thought. It's ALMOST plausible, but Landry isn't actually that good.

I just watched the Saquon Barkley highlight reel. I have to admit I hadnt seen him before. Damn he is a nasty runner. Wow.

Can you imagine the bears landing 4 players of that caliber? wow.

yes.

He let Alshon go because Alshon didn't want to be here. You can't make free agents good if there arent any, and you cant leave your depleted team with holes unaddressed. Pace has been clear that you build through the draft. He's increased the talent level consistently. Its as if someone thinks a world class poker player can cause the cards to come to him or her. They cant. They are good because over time they make the right bets, and dont throw away too much money on the bad bets. In this game thats FUTURE CAP SPACE. He didnt sign any of those guys to deals that he couldnt get out of. hes doing very well.

Free Agency isn't full of gems. Often times, especially with second tier players, you need to sign someone who you dont think is going to be awesome. In those cases, the question is the contract they sign. If they get paid like a major star, then you can blame the GM. But Pace has signed these players to very friendly deals, that allow him to cut them. These arent failures, they, like Fox, were stepping stones from awful to decent. If you think youre gonna get a hall of famer for $5mil a year, then Id say your expectations are too high. Teams are built during the draft, and when you have a team that was in the hole we were in, and you HAVE to pick Free Agents, then the question is the contracts, not the players.

Thank god Demps is gone - that guy was TERRIBLE.

I didnt know that! Also Ridley is thought by some to be too thin and not muscular enough to post up on west coast routes and take punishment. But who knows which WR Pace may or may not fancy.

yup Then again if you REALLY believe in Ridley, you take him at 8 too, and if you dont, then hes no bargain at 15?

Well, since it's an equal value trade, no one would be crazy to take it or not take it. It all depends on whether you have your eye on a particular player for #8. 21 and 22 will not have the same game breaking talent available that 8 will. But two players are better than one. Then again, your 2nd rounder drops etc etc. There is no crazy here, just an option that they might or might not want to exercise depending on their player value board.

No I think the BILLS would like that trade, not sure the Bears would.

yes LOL and it's silly! On the draft pick value chart, our #8 overall is worth 1400 value points. Buffalo's #21 is worth 800 and their #22 is worth 780. That's a combined value of 1570, so they wouldn't be giving us their 3rd rounder, they'd already be overpaying by 170 points. To put that into context, the 20th pick of the 3rd round is worth 170 points. So we'd owe THEM a 3rd rounder, not the other way around. We dont have a 3rd this year, but both our 4th round picks together are worth 148 and our 6th is worth 18.6. So if we traded with Buffalo, our first for their two firsts, we'd have to give up both 4th round picks and the 6th rounder to make it fair. And we'd still be coming out a bit ahead. Another option would be our first and second for Buffalo's 2 firsts and their lower second. BEARS 1-08 #8 overall 1400 points 2-07 #39 overall 510 points total = 1910 points BUFFALO 1-21 #21 overall 800 points 1-22 #22 overall 780 points 2-23 #55 overall 350 points total = 1920 points Buffalo also has the 21st pick in the 2nd round as well, and maybe we could hold them up for that instead, but either way they'd have the #8 pick overall, and 2 picks in the second including our high 7th pick in the 2nd round. They might make that trade for sure. I'm not sure we would. It all depends on who we have our eye on at #8 overall.

This is why the Patriots continually trade good players in the last years of their deals. They know theyre gonna lose them to free agency anyway, so thery might as well get another high pick out of it.

Yup, I agree. I do trust Pace and Nagy etc to make good choices. It's nice to be able to trust them.

This is exactly how I feel. Halas Hall may have Ridley (or someone else) ranked even lower. Maybe they're in love with a pass rusher. Pass rushers are pretty damned important. We need ILB too, and the guy from Georgia is intriguing. Again, as youve said, it all depends on their own evaluations. But one thing is sure. Theyre building everything around Trubisky right now, and we have one of the worst WR groups in history. The new guys are going to have to come from somewhere. They may well go somewhere else for round 1, but then I think they will definitely look at WR int he 2nd, and I wouldnt be shocked to see them draft 2 WRs, no matter which rounds they do it in.

I dunno if Kevin White's injury would make a difference to Pace taking a WR, but your other point is very interesting. Who have Andy Reid's best WRs been, and how did he acquire them? Also, what type of WRs does Reid favor? I dunno if Pace will want to emulate New Orleans or supply the type of player his coaches prefer. Good points.

The only problem with that is assuming the top ten we see align with the top ten in the opinion of our staff. If for example, they have a WR highly rated, that would change everything. Or maybe they like the ILB from Georgia a lot etc. Also, Trubisky needs targets. If you have Ridley ranked 12th for example, you might take him at 8 even if it is a bit of a reach - if you think he's a #1 WR, maybe you just go get him. Kind of like trading up for #2 to get Trubisky last year...

You may be right. Im certainly not making predictions. Better men than me have tried to read Belicheck's poker face and failed. I'm just wonder out loud, conspiracy theories, because it's mid February and that's all there is to do.

I wonder if Belicheck is considering retiring, and doesnt want to announce that until after Free Agency recruiting.

Yes I think you're right! Good analysis!