BearFan PHX

We need a roster full of players who rescue people from choking!

Good point. PFF throws a lot of data around, but most of it is the result of subjective grading and I question the way they process that "data' into their conclusions as well.

I dunno, I think he has a point? He paid for the access, and the Bears were playing the Packers. Maybe they should have changed his access to the Packers side of the field if that was the issue? I live in NYC, and I gotta tell you, Giants and Eagles fans want to actually FIGHT in the parking lot. In my experience, meeting Bears and Packers fans around the country, it's always a good ribbing to say "Go Bears" to a Packers fan, but it's almost always met with a friendly rivalry energy. Like we love to hate them, not like the eagles and the Giants. I met Ray Nitschke once, and told him I was a Bears fan, and he told me he was a Bears fan growing up in Kenosha. We talked for about 20 minutes. So I like ribbing them, but i don't think Bears fans really hate Packers fans as a rule do they? Isn't it more like Batman would have nothing to do if the trusty Joker wasnt there to take his punches?

LOL exactly. And the Refrigerettes.

http://www.talkbears.com/forums/index.php?...portant+bearfan

I think they're just talking about the mechanics of taking the ball from the center and the footwork of fading into the pocket, rather than already being in shotgun. Youre right the most common formation in the NFL is 1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR. I think Trubisky can learn what he needs to learn, but the snap, the footwork, and reading the field while moving are all new to him. He has a while before he needs to come off the bench tho, so I think it'll be fine.

That doesnt sound too negative to me at all. I do think Trubisky will get some playing time tho, and that it's possible that a well performing Glennon will be on the trading block next year.

It's all we CAN have until we see it on the field.

I would only say you were being negative if you were arguing that Trubisky was 100% going to be a failure because of this parallel. If instead, youre arguing that no one can know at this point, then any reasonable person would have to agree. Im not excited that Trubisky WILL be a stud QB, Im excited that he COULD be. We'll see for sure, and until we see it on the field, it's a lottery ticket for a QB, not a guaranteed stud QB. But I think there is good reason to hope.

conventional wisdom = 8-8 I like what Pace is doing. I think he's taking good risks, and got himself a decent shot at a franchise QB with a first, two thirds and a fourth round pick. We gave three firsts for Cutler. KC Gave two firsts and more for the second QB chosen. I know sports is a great topic for everyone to pile on and complain about. Everyone who isnt a super bowl champion is an idiot, I get it. And we should fire everyone all the time. But thats about as smart as putting a gun to a stock brokers head and demanding next month's stock prices. You can do that, and keep killing them and telling hte next one how tough you are and they better get it right this time. Or you can step into reality and make calculated bets like Pace does. Some will work, others wont. Trubisky still may be the second coming, so its VERY early to judge that a bad move. I mean wow. But if you can only accept sure things, then youd better have the #1 pick overall every year, and forget anyone in the 2nd round or lower. Seriously, this chest thumping is ridiculous. Pace is the first real GM we've had since Finks. hes willing to do the dirty work of sludging through the 4 or 5 year process of building a team. While the geniuses scream at him whenever he varies from what the online writers say he should have done. FOr 20 years we didnt have a GM, remember? THe McCaskeys read Street and Smiths and made value picks based on the common wisdom. EVERYONE said David Terrell was gonna be AMAZING. Getting him when he fell to us was a COUP. A+ ratings all around. Could it be that the teams who passed on him, the ones who didnt adhere to conventional wisdom were the pros? mm hmm.

Yup. Youre right. Anyhting Howard catches comes out of there. I figured that White gets some of his catches west coast style and in the red zone, and that since hes still new he might not maximize YAC?

I'll take a stab at it. I took the actual past stats of Meredith, Wheaton, Cruz and Miller. I guessed at the others, on a spreadsheet looking to see what the totals would be. Then I scaled all that by totals that more closely resemble the past performance of Mike Glennon, adjusted for 16 games. So assuming that the final stats could be: 370 Completions, 3700 Yards (231 yards a game isnt so much) and 28 TDs, wed be tied for 13th in the league in completions, 21st for yards (which makes sense if we are leaning more on TEs in the mix) and tied for 11th in TDs (our extra TE production pays dividends in the red zone, Shaheen and big bodied White specifically brings us up from the middle a bit. Optimistic maybe, but not by much, and certainly not pie in the sky or unreasonable assumptions. the various receivers actual stats then scaled to result in those output totals is: Meredith 69 catches, 866 yds, 4 TD, 13.5y/c - similar to last year White 63 catches, 580 yds, 6 TD, 9.7y/c - has a decent year, bigger body used in red zone a little more, west coast Cruz 42 catches, 586 yds, 5 TD, 14.7y/c - still slippery in the slot, hits a couple home runs, but starts to show his age Wheaton 52 catches, 600 yds, 3 TD, 12.0y/c - most underrated. Could break out which would take catches and yards from Cruz, Meredith and/or White before adding more to the totals Cohen 25 catches, 180 yds, 2 TD, 7.5y/c - screen player and 3rd down target Miller 39 catches, 320 yds, 2 TD, 8.6 yds/catch will split stats with Shaheen, TEs will get a lot of targets, Miller's experience gives him the edge over Shaheen this year Shaheen 42 catches, 300 yds, 5TD, 7.5y/c - will have a learning curve as a rookie, but his physical tools in the red zone will pay dividends as touchdowns Sims 21 catches, 160 yds, 0 TD, 8y/c Gentry 19 catches, 180 yds, 1TD, 10y/c - will make some plays in the slot, but more of a special situation guy Obviously Meredith, White and/or Wheaton can excel and have a better year, and thereby limit the other two by stealing targets, and the roles of Cohen and Gentry can be overtaken by more from the TEs, but all in all I think this is a pretty good guess, and it is logical, based on past performance stats, scaled to fit a realistic year for Glennon based on his stats. If you think I gave White, Cruz and/or Shaheen an extra touchdown, so be it. Otherwise, these are pretty solid numbers, and I think the Bears could realistically exceed them this year too.

Right! The Bears will be the best ever NFL passing offense of all time this year. I think EVERYONE knows that.

I agree on all the responses. That was what I expected and thought myself. But I was asking in case he is better than I think he is. I was wondering if anyone was going to argue that he's a stud. Seems no, and I got my answer.

Thanks Stinger good points

WR Jeremy Maclin was released by the Chiefs today. He's 29 and pretty darn good. Should we kick the tires?

the Bears' running scheme asks different things from the LG and the RG. The RG is more of a road grader, while the LG should be faster and more athletic. The LG pulls a lot more in our scheme, and Long is well suited to being the LG, while Sitton makes a better RG at this point in his career. That's the logic anyway.

The reason we signed Sitton in the first place was because of his range as a pulling guard. That's what he had that the previous LG didnt. A lot of teams like the left side of the line to be more about speed, and it makes sense as Sitton gets older that he might be slower now than Long. Makes sense.

Correct.

If an equivalence can be made between a QB and a defense, if we can discuss with arguments on both sides that they are similar in value, then the QB is the way to go. This QB cost us a first round pick, 2 x 3rd round picks and a 4th. YOu cannot build a championship defense with those four picks, so in terms of value, this was the right move. Also keep in mind that last year's first pick went to defense, and next year's can too. We spent a lot of money on free agency in defense as well. A Franchise QB is a bargain even if you pay 2 or 3 first rounders for him. Now we have a legit shot at one at a much lesser price. As he develops we can build the defense. Cool.

yup.

Yup. I can agree with that, thank you. I just think we will see it on the field, and if you buy into the need for a franchise QB then you know there is a lot of risk in finding one, and we pretty much had no choice but to go in on Trubisky if we thought he could be that guy. We missed on Wentz and Mariota already, and at some point you gotta get one even if you have to overpay. Sitting at #3 I think this was the year to do it. I sure hope he works out. No one can say for sure today that he will, including Pace. But he will have a year to develop and that's about as good a plan as you can make without being able to predict the future.

It depends on how you define success. If your only metric is whether the players make your roster or not you may be correct. If instead, you have a coefficient for quality, then you may not be correct. A safer pick has a higher floor and a lower ceiling, a riskier pick may have a higher potential outcome, but be less certain to be good at all. If you take only safe picks, you will be 8-8. You wont lose. If you want to be the best out of 32, you have to do something more than just the safe route. You gotta take risks on players that could be great. Players that are going to be great no matter what are extremely rare, and you cant find them in the 3rd round. At this point Pace is looking for his leaders, the guys that will be the core of the team, and he will take safe picks to put around them once he finds them. He believes, as do I, that you need a franchise QB to be successful in this league. They dont grow on trees, and there are no sure things. So he took a swing at one in the draft. As for calling Shaheen a big risk, even your common wisdom says he was likely pick at or around where we took him. For 20 years, the Bears office didnt have a General Manager, and for a while after, they had puppets at GM. They followed conventional wisdom. They took highly rated players at the slots they were supposed to go, and we got David Terrell, Curtis Enis, Alonzo Spellman, Stan Thomas etc etc Youre starting to come off like Steve Rosenbloom here. I know it feels good to act like you know more than the professionals, but the proof will be on the field, not in some draft guide. If Trubisky sucks, and Shaheen sucks etc then we will know it. Until then, you dont know anything but what the herd is saying.

Thats cool, I agree that Bears front offices of the past have been atrocious. Since Jim Finks left, we have been AWFUL. But Pace & Co come from Ernie Accorsi courtesy of the NFL competition committee. When I look at a team like the Packers, I see what a team culture looks like. They go through coaches, players etc, but they run the same scheme. The scouts all know exactly what attributes players need for each position - and which ones are superfluous. And when a player comes in with strengths and weaknesses, he can look at film of the people playing the same positions for the last 20 years and see that they too had similar abilities, and shortcomings, and watch how to plug into the system. It's not enough to have a good pass rusher and a goo linebacker behind him. They need to be complementary pieces in an overall scheme that is understood the same way by GM, coaches, position coaches and scouts alike. That's what Accorsi gave us. He gave us the newest branch of the Parcells tree, and this is why we went to a 3-4 too. It will take time, and we will see if these guys are good at their jobs or not. If not, with any luck they will be replaced by other people who speak Parcells tree language. THAT is how you build success for the long term. Hopefully Bears ownership just stays out of the way, and lets the machine work, and if they do step in, hopefully they replace people with people of similar philosophy. In this light, the idea to hire Tucker and tell him to run Lovie's defense was classic shortsighted Bears crap dressed up as continuity. HA. From one year to another, but not across decades and teams etc. So Im inclined to look at this staff as a new animal. I dont put the weight of the silliness that came before onto them. Onto the owners? Hell yes. But I dont think they are calling many shots right now. I truly hope that Pace develops a long term culture for the Bears, and is around for many years to tend it. God help us if this all falls flat.

Pace isnt caretaking a solid roster, he's taking flyers on riskier prospects that have more upside. He would rather have one stud and one bust than two predictably serviceable players drafted at value, because hes still searching for the core players that will define this team, not filling holes at the edges. Also, at some point, you gotta trust your scouts, and if they say something different than the draft magazines, maybe, just maybe they know better. Given that these are riskier players, I think we should take a wait and see it on the field attitude.