BearFan PHX

Yeah I had a post a while back that no matter what we do we are going to still have a few holes somewhere. Still it's nice to be this far along.

This looks even better now that Meredith is gone. If Turay isnt available in the 4th, we might go WR there and look for whatever defensive help we can in rounds 5, 6 & 7, but I absolutely agree with Edmunds, Price, and another OL in the 4th. Then the question is between Turay and a WR. IF you get Turay, then I think you're right about Lazard in the 5th. Heck, maybe they'll look at a real WR in the 2nd round now, and push the OL to the 4th. Very interesting stuff as the draft comes into focus.

YES. We evaluated him vs. what we are used to. we might have even wanted him for a long term deal, but not for 2 years and then he leaves right when the window is open.

Or two other possibilities if he doesnt sign him: 1) He just doesnt think he's that good. GMs DO disagree on the value of a player. 2) He thinks he will lose him in 2 years right when the window is open and doesn't think he's worth taking along for the ride just to lose him or have to overpay at the worst moment.

yes I agree. thats what I was saying above too. Pace wanted a long term deal. Is 2 years enough? I dunno...

me too, but I am open to the idea that it will be a surprise on the defensive front 7 too. But Im with you, my money is on ILB.

IF we end up with Edmunds, I predict you'll eat crow within 2 years.

I would LOVE this draft. Do you really think Jones will be there at #145?

yeah, I cant speak to the price, but I agree that 2 years wasn't his hope. In that way maybe the Saints are hoping to poach him. I can see Pace going either way on this, and taking his time to decide too. I'm not saying this worked out well, simply that the $2.9 Million 2nd round tender wouldn't have given him what he wanted either.

exactly.

Here's what I'm trying to say: Pace obviously knew he could have guaranteed that he could keep Meredith for one year for $2.9 Million, or receive a 2nd round pick. For some reason he didn't do that. Here are a few different options, and what they might mean. In all cases, Pace didn't "make a mistake" The first fork in the logic tree is how good Pace thinks Meredith is. I'll split this up into two groups, the first is, he's a stopgap measure and the second is that Pace sees a future for him in Chicago. ASSUMPTION #1, Pace thinks Meredith is a stopgap measure. In this scenario, Pace is simply looking at free agents, and has determined that Meredith is a better option than any other Free Agent that's currently available. Under this scenario, Pace doesn't want a long term relationship with Meredith, so he puts some price on it in his head, and won't pay more. Since we KNOW that Meredith could be had for $2.9 Million or a 2nd rounder, under this assumption, Pace would have to think that he wasn't worth $2.9 Million to the Bears, and not worth any 2nd rounder to the team. Therefore, Pace would not re-sign Meredith, and he'd go to the Saints. Pace would make the Saints wait for the full 5 days, and feel fine with it, because he had already determined that Meredith was a stopgap measure, and there will be another free agent who is in the same not-so-great category for a similar price. OUTCOME: Pace did not make an error in not choosing the 2nd round tender, because he thinks Meredith isn't worth more than $2 Million a year, and his move was correct. For what it's worth, this is not the scenario that I believe in. I'm just eliminating it mathematically, so we can focus on... ASSUMPTION #2, Pace thinks Meredith has a future on the team In this scenario, Pace wants to get a long term deal now. He thinks that 2018 might be a very prolific year for Bears WRs, and he believes in Meredith enough that he thinks he will be productive, and therefore more expensive to sign to a long term deal next year. Also, when you have a guy on a tag, they often feel unloved, like the team didn't offer enough to get a long term deal done, and they go to another team when free agency hits again the next year. Under this assumption, Pace wants a long term deal, and Meredith's agent is asking for too much. When you tag a player, it allows other teams to do your negotiating for you (like in the Fuller situation) and the player & agent find out what they're really worth on the open market. At that point, you can match or pass. So tagging in general is a smart move to create a long term deal the player HAS to sign if you choose. It breaks the stalemate. Now regarding WHICH tender offer to make, he has two reasonable choices; the $1.9 Million tender, or the $2.9 Million tender that receives a second round pick. The $2.9 Million tender with 2nd round pick is problematic under the current assumption. It probably drives away offers, and if none is made, then you don't get the long term deal, you just get him for one year at at $2.9 Million, and lose him or pay more for him next year. It makes no sense under this scenario. If what you WANT is a team to make an offer so you can wrap him up at current value, then this is a bad move. Some will say "OK, but then you'll get a 2nd round pick" and this is a different scenario where Pace thinks Meredith is worth less than a 2nd round pick who hasn't played a down in the NFL. In our current assumption, Pace thinks Meredith is worth keeping. The 2nd round pick is only valuable under the first assumption, that we don't think he's worth anything. And if that's the case, then Pace would be betting that some other team would give us a 2nd rounder for a player he doesnt think is any good, and if the DONT, then you gotta pay him $2.9 Million dollars, which is a lot for a player you don't believe in. So asking for the 2nd round tender isn't really logical. You'd need to expect a 2nd rounder for a player you don't think is worth one, or you overpay. There is no scenario where you think Meredith is GOOD and has a real $5 Million a year type future, BUT you'd be glad to trade him for a second rounder. And if you don't get the second rounder, then you get him for one year and then lose him next year - remember we are under the long term deal assumption. OUTCOME: Pace gets the best long term option he is going to see, and can make his choice. This was the right move. So in any coherent scenario, you see how the logic tree dictate that this tag, and not the 2nd round tender, was the right move, no matter what Pace thinks of Meredith. Now what's left is to see whether Pace thinks Meredith is worth the deal the Saints put together. The 2 year aspect of it isn't so bad. You get more time to evaluate him, and sign him long term or find his replacement next year before you get there. The real question is whether Pace thinks he's worth the money. If he doesn't, then no harm in having done it this way. And if he thinks it's close or just a little too rich, he probably accepts it, and gets what he wanted - a longer deal at a price he can agree to. If Pace was sure, I assume he would have signed quickly like he did with Fuller, to get the maximum goodwill with Meredith, especially since he'll be doing this again in 2 years. I'm left guessing that either Pace will pass, or he's mulling it over because the money's a bit high for his liking and/or the deal is too short. Maybe he's looking over legalities about how to extend a 2 year tag deal. I dont think you can renegotiate them if you use this contract matching process, so you might not be able to extend it, you might have to wait until it's over and then tag again, or he becomes a UFA. I have no idea what Pace will do, and I have no idea what Pace thinks of Meredith, but even without that info, I can see that Pace played this correctly, no matter the outcome. The only scenario where he made the wrong tag choice is if Pace thinks another team really will fork over a 2nd rounder for a player Pace doesnt value highly, and if he makes that bet and loses, then it costs him overpaying a player he doesnt value, that he's letting walk after the year is over anyway. Seems like a bad bet. The 2nd rounder looks all sparkle-y but when you break it down, it's not really there.

exactly.

yup

I dont see how it was a mistake if he signs him or lets him go. What was the other option he should have taken?

https://dawindycity.com/2018/04/06/chicago-bears-cameron-meredith-offer/

sorry, youre totally right. I wasnt fully awake yet. Of course he didnt match yet, youre correct. I was speaking down that scenario in the wrong verb tense. I expect Pace will sign it, but who knows. If it's too rich, then we're looking for another Free Agent, part of the reason I think we'd resign Meredith is that otherwise, you gotta be looking at a draft pick for a receiver in the first 4 rounds, and we might want to be looking at OL and defense there. But you're right, Pace hasn't declared either way yet! Ill go edit what I wrote.

I don't think you can say that Pace misjudged the market. We don't know for example, what Meredith's agent was looking for. Probably a 4 year deal tho, and if Pace didn't want to do that, then this was an excellent move that worked out, and gives us the 2 year option to accept or not. We also can't assume that the tender offer was equivalent to what he had on the table in terms of a long term deal. Only that Meredith's agent thought he might do better elsewhere. If Pace was offering a 2 year 3.5 Million a year deal, for example, then this move brings that up to market value, and if Pace thinks it exceeds market value, then he can either eat a little more cap room, or not sign him and lose him to the Saints. All we really know is that in offering the tender, Pace said "I will pay you 2.9 million for one year OR you can test the market and I have the right to match." And he did, and the number is now known. The best offer on the open market was 2 years for $10 Million. Then Pace has the option to match or not. So it stands to reason that as a fair market price, maybe Pace would have accepted the price in the first place too, so maybe it was Meredith's agent who priced his client above the market. Or maybe a combination. All I'm really saying is that it didn't cost us whatever we pay in advance of 2.9 Mil, because we may have been offering more than that, and we didn't have the option to lock that in, if the agent knew shopping would increase the price. Anyway, that's how these tags work, they allow players to see what the greatest interest is from other teams in a real way, in that the team making the highest bid has to commit to it if the team that tagged him doesnt match, so it's a REAL offer, and then the team that tagged him, can match or not. Given that the agent has a decent idea of what the player might be worth on the open market when the negotiations begin for a long term deal before the tag, it's hard to see how anyone can really misjudge the market here, and even harder to see how anyone could get tricked into overpaying. I mean if the deal was too high, Pace doesn't have to match it. Basically the tag is a way for the GM to say to the player "youre asking for unreasonably high things, go prove it in the market" and for the player to say to the GM "youre asking for unreasonably low things, go prove it in the market" so when the tag gets used, it pretty much opens an auction that sets the fairest market price. You really can't get screwed this way, especially because you can just let the player go if the other team overpays. The only way to get screwed is if you let your cap situation get unmanageable, and another team beats you to a player not on more money on the life of the deal, but just with some trick of how it's structured that you cant accommodate on your cap. That's the only way to get beat in this thing.

exactly. Uprgrading Howard isn't worth our first round pick. Not when we can upgrade other positions that really need it, like the defensive front 7 and the Offensive Line. We still need OLB, ILB, DE, OG and OT.

Bruce Arians says he is a terrific athlete, great on kick coverages, and can catch, so he might be a chess piece at FB or TE too in heavy sets, and tackle eligible situations. But he probably really helps the special teams. http://www.azcardinals.com/videos/videos/Bruce-Arians-wants-Earl-Watford-to-play-tight-end/dc25ada6-e67d-418c-8a34-4a1cfc2567ba

That's about as low as you can pay a veteran in terms of the guarantee, and if he starts a certain number of games, and reaches his goals (assuming they arent super easy to reach) then 2 million isnt so bad either. Gives Hiestand someone to work with, and the flexibility to go defense in the first round. I'll bet we sign a similar DE soon.

Yeah, I could see that for sure, but I also think there's a good chance one of the two picks will be on OL too. I think at least three of our first four picks will go to OL and defensive front 7. But what do I know about what Fangio thinks about Minkah Fitzpatrick, or what Hiestand thinks about Eric Kush? Still, I bet we take D front and OL early and often

I don't see Edmunds as an OLB, I see him as an ILB, and an impact player on defense that could make the defense special for years. His speed and coverage abilities and sure tackling makes him possibly a better Urlacher than Urlacher was. The problem with identifying a position of need and then discussing who to fill it with is that you neutralize the value of impact players at less traditional positions. Most GMs talk about best player available, even though they do figure positions of need as well. But when you say OLB, you might really mean "impact player on the defensive front 7." For example if you only identify pass rush as coming from OLB and DE, you'd miss valuing Warren Sapp.

So I'd say, whatever you do, Arden Key is not a good pick for the 2nd round because of his attitude issues. I have pretty much removed him and Orlando Brown from my draft list until at least the 3rd or 4th round. And seeing as how we have no 3rd rounder, until the 4th I guess. ALso if Billy Price is there in the 2nd, he'd be a great choice if you didn't take Nelson in the 1st. My preference is Edmunds in round 1, and either an Edge/DE or OL in the 2nd. Edmunds / Price would be fantastic. So would Edmunds / Miller, Wynn, McGlinchey, Jones, Williams, Rankin, Ragnow, O'Neill, Crosby etc. There will be a bunch of quality OL in the 2nd, and Hiestand should know who the winners are. He'll also give us the best possible intel on Nelson too. And if there is another true impact defender in the 2nd round, that's cool too. But my money is on Edmunds and an OL going 1st and second.

I think you have it right. DE is a need. I also think we will add someone to the OL in free agency. And possibly a depth WR.

Just had this 4 round simulated mock, as an example. 8: R1P8 LB TREMAINE EDMUNDS VIRGINIA TECH 39: R2P7 G BILLY PRICE OHIO ST. 105: R4P5 OT TYRELL CROSBY OREGON 115: R4P15 C FRANK RAGNOW ARKANSAS