BearFan PHX

On nfldraftbuzz.com, they had a setting for picking not by draft buzz player rankings, but "consensus" rankings, whatever that is - sounds like a lot of opinions averaged out, I dunno whos opinions but they arent smart. Look at this ridiculous, insane, impossible draft. Whoever is making these consensus evals is really dumb LOL

yes BPA is always the best way to go, but we were unable to fill that LT need in free agency. Its a hard position to fill, and maybe this is the year to do it, and get a guy to protect Caleb for the next 10 years. i think Banks or Ersery could be that guy. Maybe Conerly?

And just to clear that picture a little bit, their player rankings arent necessarily supposed to predict the actual draft order, because raw playing rankings dont take into account teams needs and styles. If they get it generally right, that means the evaluations were right, but draft order is something else. I love the DraftBuzz simulator on random 2 setting. It does seems to have Travis Hunter and some others dropping, maybe unrealistically, due to team needs, but they do take the guys i think are more reasonable for us early, so its like a worst case scenario simulator. I guess thats kind of like having 12 players go before your pick at 10 in a way, if im not taking Hunter if he falls because its not realistic, because if he was taken, someone else would be available instead, but I think its a good way to make sure you can get what you need no matter what happens. It helps answer questions like: who are the 2nd round and 3rd round HBs you KNOW will be there? What defensive help is available in rounds 2 and 3 on the DL or at S What skill players, WR or TE are available in 2 and 3 and for me, the question that slants everything else for me this year: Where can we get a starting quality LT at pick #39? And I think the answer to that is it's too late by then. That's the main question I hope the simulators and mock drafts can answer. I have a feeling Ersery is going a lot earlier than people think. So Ive been running scenarios where I take an OT at 10 no matter whether its Banks or a reach. ANd Im finding lots of good talent at HB, S, DT, WR and TE in rounds 2 and 3. But no reliable OTs.

That makes a lot of sense generically in an average draft, and Jeanty is definitely the best back in the draft by far, and a good pick at 10, but I dug into that idea, and no one I like at OT falls to the 2nd round reliably. Often i had to go to Grant from W&M and he's definitely an intriguing project but he isnt gonna start at LT on day one the way I think Banks, Ersery or Conerly could. This is what keeps painting me into the corner about taking an OT at 10 and even reaching if necessary to get one who is slotted in the later part of the round, and having to take him early. The truth is there are some very good backs available in round 2, and defensive help too, especially at safety. None of those players is Jeanty, but the falloff there is a lot less than OT. To me, the only way to take Jeanty, would be if we could package our 2nd rounders together and move up to snag Ersery at 20 or 25 or something like that. If we had that pick there locked down, then Id feel very comfortable taking a non OT, especially Jeanty. But without that certainty, I feel like we're boxed into taking OT. Our two holes are OT and HB. After that we could add talent, but the starters are filled if we dont get a guy at any position. But right now, OT is wide open, and Swift aint gonna cut it for me. So OT and HB in the first three picks. (I say three picks becasue we pick #39 and then again #41, and New Orleans between the two is looking for the same kind of safety we are, so Id take the S at #39 and the HB at #41 right after, even though the HB is more important to us.

and we can debate and criticize things we dont agree with too.

I do think Bagent has trade value. QBs also get hurt, and having a good backup can save a season. You might be right that a 6th is what others might pay for him right now, but I wouldnt let him go for less than a 3rd or maybe even more because of what he is worth for us. I think Bagent could be a starter somewhere and be in the 15-20 ranked QB in the league in the right situation. I think the Jets would do better with him than JF, for example. Im in no hurry to get rid of him. I think he's pretty damned good. Not Caleb Williams good, but pretty damned good

we need 4 or 5 first round picks every year.

If Bagent is really still QB2, and Keenum is supposed to be a veteran voice for Caleb, then he doesn't really need to be on the 53 man roster to do that? I suppose that opens him up to being poached off the practice squad, but unless there is an injury, why would a team do that and pay his contract, when they could have just signed him already at the same amount? and as QB3, he can already play as an emergency QB if necessary without being on the 53 i think?

I like DraftBuzz's ratings as well. In any draft year, whichever site makes it hardest for me to get the players I want is the one i use. Call it worst case scenario planning. But thats just another way of saying they value the players I like the same way I do. As for next year's draft, my crystal ball is already getting bad reception on this one hahaha

yikes!

Before the combine, all these same sources had Membou as a guard, and listed far lower. Then he wins the Underwear Olympics and suddenly hes a top 10 pick? I don't buy it. Hes undersized and the film shows he quits on plays. i think hes got some Nate Davis in him. I think we either take Banks at 10, or we are going to take Conerly or Ersey with our first pick. And since that's early to take those guys who are slotted into the second half of the first round, if Banks isnt there we will want to trade back before taking one of those two if possible. And to me, that's where all the Jeanty, Warren noise comes into play. Either or both may drop to us, and we are probably blowing smoke to set up a trade down for us. Maybe just a couple slots to Dallas for example. We'll see what happens, but the more homework I do, the more convinced I become about this. OT with our first pick, Banks, Ersery or Conerly, POSSIBLY Simmons if they know more positive news than I do about his medical prognosis. But since that's probably unknown to everyone right now, I think it's one of those first three, with or without a trade back.

I think this is just what the PFF draft simulator says. A lot of mock drafts have Banks going before we even pick. I think he is the #1 OT in the draft, and the only three I want are Banks, Ersery or Conerly. The only site that has the players ranked close to right in my view is NFLDraftBuzz. They mock draft simulator is crazy though, Travis Hunter, who they have correctly ranked at #1, falls past 10 ll the time. So Im not saying the simulator is great, but the overall rankings are good and are in line with what Ive seen on film. And they have Banks as the highest rated OT, at #7 overall. Membou is all smoke and mirrors, and Campbell has some serious red flags in my view, but draftbuzz has Campbell at #9 and Membou at #11 if that helps you to trust them. I wouldnt touch Membou or Campbell as a LT at all.

Did a bunch of Mock Drafts tonight. Got increasingly interested in the bad news / reach for an OT at 10 scenarios. These would represent worst case scenarios if you HAD to have an OT at 10, and you still need a feature back. #10 OL - reach for Ersery or Conerly (if Banks isn't available) #39 Best S available of: S Nick Emmanwori, S Malakai Starks, S Xavier Watts ***OR*** Best DL available, dont expect big names to fall for this scenario ***OR*** Best WR remaining, Thinking WR Jack Bech? #41 HB - take the best remaining HB of: Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson etc HB is more important than S, but with New Orleans at #40, and more HBs than safeties here, I took the HB 41st instead of 39th #72 Best WR, DL, S whatever position wasnt taken at 41 #148 TE Oronde Gadsden So if you had to take an OL, youd still have your OT a good pick of HBs not named Jeanty you'd add someone significant to the defense, probably at safety or DT pick up a WR, DL or S and grab a good TE2 If you wait until round 2 for OT, youre hoping on an inferior developmental project, or betting the farm that Ersery or Conerly will drop, or that Grant or someone will be good enough. Those are both too risky bets to make for me, which brought me here. If you start with OT, even if you "reach" you still get someone real, a mid to late first round talent, and still do FINE on HB, and add needed weapons. So I think we really need to take an OT at 10. If it's Banks it's easy, but if you go with another position, you are screwed at OT by round 2. All other positions' depth falls right to our second round picks to do what we need at HB and still add one more impact player Im not saying this is ideal, Im saying this way we dont end up screwed at OL or HB, and can still address DL or S, and add a couple pieces. In other words, there is no safe plan if you dont take an OT at 10, they drop off faster than what we need by round 2 unless we get really lucky. Try this approach on mock drafts and see if you dont end up with something that works. And I think it will work int he real draft where better players arent falling as much as in the simulators. This also implies that we could trade down from 10, but not too far so we can still get Ersery or Conerly. If Banks isnt available, and someone wants to trade up, we should do that, and still grab an OT first.

I might add the surprise name of WR Tetairoa McMillan to that list too. I could imagine Johnson doing amazing things with him. I wont predict it, but he is a dark horse, and has enough skill to make the list I think. And of course I assume we are leaving guys like Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter out of the conversation because they will never be there at 10... Your point about the depth of the draft is a good one too, pointing back to Banks. That's also part of why I think if Banks is there at 10, we will take him. Im on the record with this one firm prediction now. If Im wrong about it, then you all can call me out later! If Banks is gone though, then Im off the hook LOL

OK, Im gonna go on the record with this prediction: If Banks is there at pick 10, we will take him.

Its a good point. We do need to bring in some personalities at times, and the McCaskeys have been afraid of that. I do think that we made the right decision on Carter, but what youre saying is also right. Now that we have a real coaching staff, maybe we can keep a couple guys in line who have talent and troubled egos. You wouldnt want to pass on Deion Sanders, Randy Moss or Ray Lewis just because they might swear on Hard Knocks. Hopefully we are building a team that can handle more than the Trestman/Nagy/Eberflus approach in the future.

Everyone knew Carter would be great. The question was whether he would get into trouble, become a locker room cancer. In Philadelphia, they have the veteran leadership on the line to keep that from happening. There is nothing that says that if we had picked him that he would do for us what he has done for Philly. I really wonder how he would have handled last year on our team. Also, we took Wright over Carter, not Dexter?

I think you have to add Banks to that list. If he is available at 10, I think he is the pick.

It's just two plays, so it isn't proof of anything, but i just saw this on X, and thought I'd share it because it is indicative of the kind of thing I saw a lot of of on Will Campbell's tape. He is a horrible handfighter, and got destroyed here twice. Neither was a sack, so his stat still looks clean for the writers who just look at the numbers, but the tape tells another story.

That's really interesting. I am more sure that Membou is a bad choice than I am about Campbell. DIfference of opinion makes the world go around i suppose...

well Campbell only gave up 4 sacks over 3 years, but he also had extremely mobile QBs. Arms aside he is an imposing specimen, and he has good footwork. He is a first round OL, but i dont think he will make it as an NFL Left Tackle, and like Ive said, I am not sure of that, but to my eyes he looks like he belongs around pick 20 or something? He plays too high, and loses handfighting, so he's gonna need some coaching for sure. But can I say that Roushar wont turn him into a pro Bowler? Of course I cant say that I know that. I just wouldnt personally bet on it - based on Campbell not Roushar Ive watched a bunch of film on Campbell now, and it just doesnt look like a #10 LT ought to. Hes not smooth, and dominant. It doesnt look like he belongs there in the NFL to me. Banks on the other hand does look smooth. He does look dominant. He looks the part to my eye. Simmons, if he didnt have the medical issues looks amazing to me. He is very fluid and looks the part. But the medical is a BIG question. Banks isnt perfect, but he'd be my pick. And there are others who are not first rounders per se who Id be happy with, but Membou is NOT one of them for a bunch of reasons. He takes plays off, his heart isnt in it, hes never played the left side and he is undersized.

I guess, but I think we are making too much about the arms narrative. I thought Skoronski was a terrible OT. He was a catcher, he didnt meet contact until it was on him. I dont remember what my other concerns were at the time, but i didnt want any part of him, and i thought Wright was the clear choice over Skoronski. Because of the tape! Measurables only say so much. Now I get that Campbell has short arms too, and maybe that's a problem. But he also plays too high, is too slow to counter outside moves and worse yet, is a terrible handfighter that gets beat INSIDE. That should never happen. I cant predict what Campbell could become with NFL coaching. I wont sit here and say that I have a crystal ball and Campbell will never be an NFL LT, but I do believe that right now, he is a weak candidate to be one. If the Bears take him, I will of course defer to their better experience and information on him. And Ill root for him to prove me wrong. Im not saying I know he will fail to the level that I knew Fields sucked, or Eberflus sucked. Those things i KNEW once I knew them, because they were proven on NFL fields. Campbell is not at that point, and I am not as sure about his shortcomings as i was about those other two (and Charles Leno!) But if it were me, and i think we are all glad it isnt LOL, I would take Banks over Campbell all day long. Depending on how I felt about the medical possibilities, I might take Simmons over Campbell, and I think I like Ersery better too. Theres a guy from W&M that looks intriguing and there are others too for 2nd or 3rd round consideration. The only player I like less than Campbell as our LT is Membou! Membou is another narrative driven prospect. He was nowhere until his combine numbers. The so called underwear olympics. LOL Banks looks good to me, i hope he is there at 10.

I dunno how the Bears evaluate Campbell. Some have him really highly rated, others don't. Even forgetting about his arms, his film looks bad to me. I definitely prefer Banks. So I wonder where the Bears are on those two.

The way the talent is allotted in this draft makes a trade down a very good option. Then again, by your own argument, if you believe there is a difference maker, at LT, at HB, at DT whatever, then you can take them, even if it's a few picks early, or too high for a position. I think youre right about the talent vs draft value curve here, but each player is an individual too, and if Johnson and the staff like a guy, if I'm Poles, rather than trading down and getting credit for a GM move, Id just grab the guy. Especially with 2 high 2nd rounders to play with. I guess another way to say this is that I can see a ton of different smart options for us, and the team is in a great spot in terms of being able to do pretty much anything they want. So your point is right, and a trade down is a win. The point about Jeanty is right, and could be amazing. Adding a DT or LT even if its a little early makes sense. If Johnson likes a skill player, a surprise WR ot TE or even an edge! it ALL makes sense, as long as the player evaluations are right. In short - I have no freakin idea!! We are in a very flexible position. Well played, Poles.

There is logic to that analysis, in terms of maximizing value. But if you think a guy is worth pick 15, and you think he will help your team, it's Ok to pick him at 10. You dont want to reach too far, and especially not to the point where you couldve gotten him a round later, but it's OK to take a player you believe in a few picks early. I guess another way to say this, is the Bears may have different valuations on a player than we do? For example I see Kelvin Banks mocking as early as pick 4, and as late as 17 or 20 area. If you love him, you grab him at 10? But similarly, and to your point, if you love Jeanty, and think 10 is a little early, it's OK to take him too!