BearFan PHX

It's a mixed bag. On one hand, a more matured QB comes in hotter, but i have heard a lot of GMs say that the common wisdom (which can be wrong of course) is that QBs develop a lot between age 20 and 25, and then their ability to continue growing slows down. They say that getting a guy at age 22 gives you 3 years to build him in the NFL, whereas a 27 year old comes in more mature, but probably doesnt grow much after his first year. Of course there are the Kurt Warners of the world to disprove that theory too. But this is one of the big supposed knocks on Nix that I heard a lot from different sources pre draft. The upside is that he's playing well already. So to your main point Grizz, I think youre right. Next years' Caleb should be better than this year's model. But also on Nix, he may be ahead of the pack right now, but he may also be closer to his ceiling too?

We just keep getting more confirmation, but this was already obvious in January. He is awful. The question at hand is not really whether Poles will fire him, but do we want Poles picking his replacement?

Caleb's time to throw today was pretty quick on a lot of his throws. Faster than anything weve really seen before. To do that in one week tells you how screwed up the gameplan was with Waldron. Matching short protections like play action with longer routes. Today looked more like football.

I agree. He has a better chance of being rookie of the year, than ending up a top 10 QB in the league. His age gives him a head start on the rookies, but it also suggests an earlier ceiling, as he may already be nearing maxxed out, having done a lot of his developing already because of his age.

I completely agree with the first half of this statement. If we develop Caleb, then this season was a success. I'm not against Brown getting a look, but he shouldnt get any extra consideration for being in house. Youd have to think he would be better than Johnson, Kingsbury, Kubiak and a few other names.

for sure. this was obvious in January.

beat us with the prevent offense today. took the playcalling out of Browns' hands and screwed it up. Again. Worst endgame manager of all time.

You can pinpoint the exact second the playcalling went from Brown to Eberflus, and that is the exact moment all momentum changed, we got scared and came up an inch short. If Caleb is your guy, then dont take the ball out of his hands at the end with overly safe prevent offense. Doenst meant he has to throw, but let the offense run.

This was a great game for us and our future. Defense played OK, except for giving up some stupid crazy big plays. Seems the Packers always do that to us. But we held the score down. Offense looked MUCH better - same plays but called in the right order. Staying ahead of the chains. Making first downs. None of these 2nd and 12 we've been living through recently. Caleb showed some good leadership out there, and once again did not throw any interceptions. There was one risky pass. Then, with a high probability of winning at the end, with the outcome of the game solely in our own control, and PRECISELY when the play calling switched from Brown to Eberflus we got scared and over cautious. We could have run another play and had a shorter kick at the end, one with a higher trajectory. Even 4 more yards from Roschon would have put that kick above the Packers' hands. This is the offensive version of the too early prevent defense. .The team won this game and then Eberflus lost it all by himself. What we learned: Flus has to has to has to be fired at the end of the season Braxton Jones cannot stop a bull rush. He cannot be our starter at LOT next year. Caleb has what it takes, and with a little more time will be fine. Waldron was really really bad. We seriously need more help on the DLine. We are still on schedule for next year. It's not fun or pretty, but the problems are in sharp focus now, and the important questions are getting answered.

since the beginning, the goals of this season have been to 1) develop Caleb thru his rookie year and into an NFL experienced QB 2) Find out where we actually are and what the weak links are to open a window to compete next year. We always knew the OL still needed work. I really hope to see Caleb progress. I want to see him put together drives. I dont care if we win, but I want to move the ball and score points. As for finding out where we are weak, and what we need for next year, Id say the results have been phenomenal. We have a very clear picture of whats working and whats broken. You cant say its a contradictory mess or a mixed bag. Its clear. And thats a good thing. Coaching, OL, DL, WR (to replace Allen for next year) We've gotten a GOOD look at a lot of our offensive linemen. We know what Davis is. We know Jenkins will keep getting hurt. It's coming into focus. We need new coaches. And who is going to pick them? Is Poles the right guy?

I dont play, and i dunno who it is, but if theyre still playing and wont pay thats really lame.

organization and culture are terrible

but is he even good at scheming a defense when we see so many last minute losses because of defensive playcalling? I mean, the defense looks good, but we arent leading the league or anything. Even at his core strength hes not better than ok, and as you say everything else is a disaster

yup - way too many unforced errors

here's one: With Matt Waldron's firing, and Luke Getsy's firing in Los Vegas, that makes 3 coordinators Flus hired in his short time with a total of 4 firings between them. It doesnt take a genius to see.

If Flus was a smart football mind he'd know to defend the boundary on the second to last play in Washington. He wouldnt have gone into super prevent too early and lost 5 games that we had won over 95%. He wouldn't go for it on 4th down from your own side of the 50 in the 2nd qtr down one score. He's made a LOT of straight up errors. Im not talking about being beaten by a better coach (although theres plenty of that) but straight up just losing games based on bad calls that no one was forcing him to make. Firing Flus after this year is a no brainer.

The thing is, they kind of thrust Eberflus on Poles. He didnt really choose him. And now Eberflus is imploding. This past offseason Poles could have gotten a new coach and bought himself several more years. Hell he could have gotten Harbaugh, but I understand that has some complications. But he CHOSE to keep Eberflus, and now the idea that Flus was pushed on him losing weight. This year Mike Vrabel will be available. An older Bill Belichick too. Deion Sanders, and a bunch of up and coming offensive coordinators (who were available last year for HC too) are also in the market. I'm not saying all these names are good ideas. But there are options to pick from. Choosing to move on from Eberflus now is easy. Any GM would do it. If Poles doesn't they should not only fire him, but he should be prohibited from ever using anything more complicated than a spoon ever again. So I'm not thinking about the Flus decision being the question for Poles. It's the next decision. Who to hire next. And it is critically important to get that right. Everything is on the line with that decision. Caleb's entire NFL career, the defense we've built, the next five or more years all sit on that decision. Is Poles the guy to make it? If we hire a new GM, will they be pushed to make their coaching choice in a week from candidates the McCaskeys have pre-picked? Ian Cunningham is already in the building. *IF* he is who I suspect he is, he's the best GM candidate out there for replacing Poles. And it wouldnt be his first week. If Kevin Warren has a single brain cell, he's already asked Poles to start researching head coaching options for next year. If Poles has one, he's already doing it. And that means Cunningham is doing it too. And there it is. Great point Mongo. If some of us are not sure Poles has been quite bad enough to fire, are you sure he has done enough to get EXTENDED? No way. Fire Flus, promote Cunningham. Get an alpha leader Head Coach in here, and let him make his own staff. Do not try to make an arranged marriage with the current defensive staff. Do not twist this team into pretzels to keep Thomas Brown in some capacity just because he has a bright future and you promised to mentor him. You made that promise to Caleb Williams too, and you have to get this ALL right for him. If the new coach wants to interview current coaches on our staff, great. But it should not be expected or implied that he should choose them for any reason other than he thinks they are the best choice. We have the opportunity right now to get the GM, head coach, and Caleb (albeit a year late) unified into a window. I don't trust Poles making the next coach decision. He does not deserve to be extended at this point. The more I pull it apart, the more certain I am. Fair or not, Poles has to go.

Flus is an HR muppet.

I cant deny that youre right about that, but of course the most likely outcome is that they will win a couple games and not make the playoffs?

we dont need a #1 pick overall this year, we have a QB. I mean dont get me wrong, the "haul" would be fantastic again, but Id rather see us win some games and see Caleb developing than to have a higher pick. Another thing to consider is that if we got a top 4 pick, we'd almost have to use it on a pass rusher, whereas a #8 pick or something would go to OL. There are trade down scenarios too, but QBs and Edge rushers are worth their weight in gold.

Lets go!

Oh and I wanted to say also, lost in all the drama and chaos, Bates had a really good day at guard last week. I watched him on almost every snap. He looked better than anything else out there. Which isnt much of a compliment lol

he was a 3rd round pick in 2023, 4th highest rated center with some project type vibe where he has some talents, and some work he still needs to do. Mostly he had a knee that kept him out of football for the first half of the season. Poles had him in for a top 30 visit in 2023, so he may have been waiting until his knee was healed to give him a look. Smart move, not earth shaking, but still a good move.

I know they are buds, but both of them are expecting Ian to become a GM soon, so theyd be competitors on opposite teams anyway. If Poles gets fired, someone is gonna be the new GM, so I dunno if it's really a problem. It's funny how I preach "don't hang on to something just because it's not terrible, make sure you make the right pick" and I like Cunningham. From what I've seen, he proved himself to be patient and shrewd poker player. Waiting for Odunze to fall to 9, rather than getting panicked and trading up for him with the Giants. To me that was a good, albeit limited, audition. And not just the choice, but how he worked Poles to calm him down and control the direction of the room without negating anyone. That's hard to do. The thing is, I have liked a lot of the moves we've made. We seem to be scouting well. Our pro personnel side has been questionable, but truthfully, free agents are always hit or miss. Every time we sign some new free agent, and I call my Dad all happy about it, he always reminds me "there's a reason the other team didnt keep him" LOL it's like a joke between us. Half the time he's right, and I'm right the other half. For every Davis there is a Sweat. But for sure, missing on free agents is easy for any GM to do - you gotta do it, but it's not the same as drafting good players. So our college scouting seems good. Our draft decisions seem to have been sound. But we've made a few errors in those singular gut call decisions, like keeping Eberflus. You don't get 8 scouts giving you plusses and minusses on that one, with stats and film. I feel like this is where Poles' personality gets in the way, and a more steely eyed Cunningham might be preferable. Anyway, these are just musings. I KNOW Eberflus has to be fired. I suspect Poles should be, but I don't predict it as a certainty at all, and I'm not sure he wont go on to be great for us if we keep him. It's just a gut feeling for me. But I dont NEED the guy gone the way I need Flus gone. If he keeps Flus after this year, then Poles will need to be gone. Also, I'm gonna send a box of dog poop to Trace Armstrong LOL (not really)

Based on almost nothing, I have a hunch that Ian Cunningham is the good one, and Poles is the wrong guy.