BearFan PHX

Velus Jones Jr sucked. We kept trying all different things, but in the end, he was just a giant liability. We sure did our due diligence on him, but good riddance.

yup - of course the schedule gets tougher, and he may fall short of 4k, but who is gonna cry if we get 3,800 yards? Not me.

Caleb needs to average 245 yards per game passing for the rest of the season to reach 4,000 yards.

lol AZShelton Fire!

I think that's right. Brisker IS a good player, but there are other safeties out there, even on the roster. Id love to keep him, but not to pay him big, and that's the question. I think you're right about how that will go.

I can imagine a weird "unsound" defense that generates interceptions based on his obvious predelection to throw short and right. Maybe a zone blitz look. Prediction: Dexter gets 2 INTs and Billings gets 1. Yeah Im kidding, but that would be fun. Booker might be an intriguing player to do weird stuff with?

imagine where he will be in 2 years. It's a good time to be a Bears fan!

this is the best rebuttal of the old "Caleb doesnt play in structure" narrative I've ever seen. Everyone here is on board now, but you still hear some writers claiming it. It's funny how a story starts and then it becomes truth just because a bunch of writers repeat each other.

For both reasons, I think we draft DBs next year too. It's nice to be in a position that one of our main worries is replacing great players in 2 years. Whens the last time THAT was a Bears' concern?

I remember a few years back we were having a similar discussion about the WR group. It may have been more than a few years back LOL weve all been here a long time! Anyway I was saying that we would completely revamp the WRs, and others were saying we would tinker, and keep some. In the end we completely revamped the WR position. This does NOT mean that I think this is evidence we would do it again. It was a different GM, and as I recall the revamped WRs werent so good either LOL It's just that it's hard to predict who will be available in trade (like Montez Sweat) or who we might find in the draft that isnt a highly scouted player. I think Bates will likely be on the OL next year. Maybe at Center, or maybe at Guard. I think pryor sticks around as depth. I think Wright will ascend. So I think we see 3 new faces on the OL. Also, Poles and Eberflus have shown no problem starting rookies at various positions. So i think the OL is gonna undergo massive change, and Jenkins will be gone. That's my guess.

I hear ya, but i think that having a decent player who is oft injured makes it hard to put together an OL. It makes you think the backup for when hes injured doesnt have to be a starter, and if they are starter caliber, then it deprives them of reps. I hear you on the money, and he probably could be had for a decent price, but Im not sure youre ahead of the game if you fill a roster spot with a guy you cant count on just because you got him cheaper? If you want to sign him as depth, that fixes my concern, but Ill bet someone else will offer him a chance to start then. I bet he will be gone next year. I think Poles has to look at revamping the OL in the offseason with draft picks, and maybe even free agents. Hes got almost everything else covered. That's just how I see it - my guess - but I obviously don't KNOW anything.

LOL so true, and i think we agree on our evaluation of jenkins, both in terms of his talent, and his penchant for injuries, so the rest is, as you say, GM stuff, and it aint easy. I agree that neither of our conclusions on this are obvious or clear, its murky, and you went one way and i went another, but we still do pretty much see it the same way. How to balance it is the question.

I agree with why we'd want to keep him as depth, but he will get offered a chance to start somewhere else. And we are not going to get into a bidding war for him, so I expect him not to be here next year. I love your description of having a talent pipeline with depth thats actually growing to be impact starters in a few years, that is for sure a great plan if you can prime the pump and get the cycle started. The Bears have never looked that far ahead before, it's nice to see an actual plan developing. Time will tell what happens, but we do agree that when he's healthy Jenkins is a pretty good player. I think we just disagree on what to do with him, or what the Bears plan will be, and that's all just future guesses for all of us, so cool. We mostly agree.

youre right I did misunderstand. Of course i want to see us draft OL, and there will be free agents too. I had misread you to mean that you want to draft two other players for RG, LT or OC, and also keep Jenkins as a starter. Im just saying that Jenkins' contract ends this year, and if you think he's your real starter for the future, then of course you pay him, but if you dont, I dont think paying him less and keeping him around is as advantageous as it sounds, since you know he's going to get injured again. (saying if you think he wont get inured again then by all means you pay him and keep him) And also I think another team will offer him a starting job, and I dont think we will or really can? But yes, youre point about drafting a starting quality player is well taken, I completely agree.

if he can stay healthy, then I agree hes good, but I dont think having a guy who gets injured a lot is a bargain at a lower price, and I dont think that having a backup in the wings is as good as having a good player you can just count on?

I totally agree about Braxton becoming depth, but i think Jenkins needs a new deal after this year, and someone will offer him a starting job somewhere? EDIT - yes he is a free agent after this year. Someone will offer him more than we should. Maybe we will get compensatory picks for losing him?

so i think when setting a price for him, and seeing the value etc, what youre saying is good analysis, but for me the problem is that if you think a guy is gonna be hit and miss, playing sometimes and not other times, then youre getting a backup there a bunch of the time, and continuity is lost. It's almost like you got what you paid for, but instead of a mediocre player, you get a pretty good player but only some of the time. My personal guess is that Poles will look for a new starter there for next year, and let Jenkins go. It wouldnt be fair to demote Jenkins to a swing player, someone will give him a starting job, and possibly regret it when he misses time. I wouldn't be shocked to see at least 3 new starters on the OL next year that arent currently on the roster. Basically an overhaul. Maybe Murray will ascend, or Bates will play well and that will only be 2 players, but Braxton's days are numbered, and Pryor is doing well filling in, but a real right guard will be necessary. And unless Bates is great, you can add center to the list. It could be 4 new guys. Only Wright is safe to my mind.

No doubt Jenkins is pretty good when healthy. I have seen him make some mistakes too of course, same with Wright, but overall, id call them keepers if it wasnt for Jenkins' history with injuries. It's about rolling the dice i guess, because you're right, when healthy he's a damn good player. But i think at this point, you can't really bank on him, no matter how cap friendly the price? But it's just my read on the gamble. There is no medical condition that i am aware of that says he is more likely to be injured again, but his history means that to me, I would move on from him. But you're right too that he's a good player, and there is no guarantee he will be injured again.

Mahomes is the reason they win, despite how his stats look. Another case of how stats dont really tell the story,

I dont see Jenkins coming back. He is talented, but he has too many injury problems. I expect to see a number of new faces on the OL next year. The only one who is safe right now is Wright. He will come around I think based on his rookie year film.

I think the dead cap hit on Garrett is like 45 million. They cant really trade him this year.

The games in the back half of the schedule are gonna be tough, but iron sharpens iron. We need to get beat up a couple times to know how to be tough enough to win. It's gonna be difficult, but the schedule gods gave us this first half of the season for Caleb to learn. Then we will see where we are in the second half. I predict we will give them some tough games, pull a few out and still also get spanked a few times. Maybe a playoff berth, but even so, likely to bow out early. ANd that sets the stage for a real football team to begin work next year, knowing what it takes, hungry and committed. And as Ive said all year, with this roster, I dont want to put any ceilings on who they are in december, so they could get ahead early on my prediction and make more noise in post season than Im "expecting" In an case, it's all really good for us long term.

everything matters, but in the end, its all about the QB. He's got 6TDs, 8 INTs, and they are 6-0.

LOL perfect example. the stats are totally one sided, but then again, if you watch the film (and in this case, it doesnt have to be the all 22! lol) you discover that he went out injured in the first quarter. A lot of people have said hes too slight to take the hits, and they may be right. I tried to avoid that criticism and just look at his skills as a pocket passer. But the people who worried about injuries are already getting their argument somewhat validated apparently.

yeah there are lots of articles to read, and narratives to follow. But there really is no substitute for watching the game on the all 22, otherwise you never know whats real and whats a narrative. Most people dont do that, so theres lots of people walking around repeating opinions they read, but the film itself is really the only truth. For example, I have my opinions about Jayden Daniels. I watched some college tape on him, and Ive seen some highlights of him in the NFL. But the truth is I dont really know, because i didnt watch the all 22.