BearFan PHX

I'll bet we see a lot of innovation on kickoff returns. the best technique probably hasnt even been thought of yet.

Agree. Im not sure who our punt returner is though, that's a possible role for Scott too. He did it for us, but muffed a couple so they took it from him. Maybe with another year's work he can do that.

ah youre right, the increases over the years make up that $135k. You beat me to it AZ and you got the numbers right.

The league minimum for rookies is $795,000 and for players with at least one year experience is $915,000 a year, and $985,000 for two years experience. So the least the three year contract could be worth is $2.695,000 so we gave him an extra $135,000 - so i guess it's a slight increase, but not much. We probably had to outbid someone else? But not by much.

LOL exactly.

AI is different from the other kinds of computer programming we've known. In regular deterministic systems, you can look at the program and see the algorithm. You can look in the code and see that completion percentage is defined as completions divided by attempts. And you can see errors or bad assumptions such as having that fraction accidentally upside down so all completion percentages would end up over 100% lol or you can see organizations like PFF who try to relate different data points into compound stats, that we all know rarely align with reality. For example, if i took a QBs completion percentage, how often they ate kale, whether their name begins with a letter in the first or second part of the alphabet, and used that as a predictor, I could probably find some statistical trends that would fit all the data so far. I am also pretty sure it would fail to hold true into next season. AI on the other hand is kind of like a black box. It trains itself on a data set and finds patterns in the data. Anyone who has interacted with ChatGPT knows how eerily familiar and human the text completion engine they have built is. At it's heart it's just a bigger version of the program that suggests the next word youre going to type on your cell phone. But with enough computing power behind it, not only to these pattern completion algorithms appear to think, they exhibit personalities too! And this is only because people who had personalities wrote all the material in the training data. For example, if you used every facebook post ever made as your data set, youd find personality threads behind the completion percentages. people who say "F*CK" often say "YOU" as the next word. That doesnt mean the computer is "mad". One might be tempted to believe that the AI was thinking or feeling, but it was the people who's output created the data set who were thinking and feeling AI is just pattern matching. It's kind of a humbling wake up call to realize that we as humans are probably not doing much more than pattern matching either. The we hold our thinking in such high esteem, but it is also probably very basic pattern matching too, since ChatGPT can already emulate it so well. Anyway, AI creates output data that harmonizes with the existing data set. it does not think. For example, several lawyers have gotten into trouble for using ChatGPT to write briefs for them. It writes really good briefs and papers, but it also often cites fictitious court cases that never existed. The formatting, and kind of case law is copied, but the cases themselves were made up. In other words, AI can find patterns and emulate them, but it does not do any thinking or cognition. So if AI is looking at the NFL season and making predictions, those predictions will clearly fit the data set. The problem is that bettors have been doing that forever too. Sports is notoriously chaotic and hard to predict. yes Vegas favorites of over 7 points probably win the game a large number of times. But most games are closer than that, and the players are human. They succeed and fail. They lose confidence, and gain experience. No one would have predicted Brock Purdy, just like no one can be sure that Caleb Williams is going to be league leader. We can use statistics to guess at who a likely candidate to win will be, but on any given sunday... All this to say that AI season prediction and stat predictions can only be in line with everything that has happened up through last year. They cant include the crucial data of whats going to happen next of course. Right now, AI should think that the Chiefs will win every Super Bowl they ever have again until Mahomes retires. And that IS is the most likely outcome for each Super Bowl. But it aint gonna happen in the real world. I dont think the problem with AI is the garbage in garbage out problem of deterministic programming from the last generation of technology. And it's not a problem with poor algorithms either, because AI does it's own programming. We literally cannot look inside the program and see WHY AI made the choice it did. All the node and strength data is available, but understanding how it caused the AI to come to that answer is hidden to us, impossible to see. Just as we can know where every cell in the brain is, and how each individual cell works with complete knowledge of its inputs and outputs and chemical processes, and still not have even a clue about how consciousness arises from it in total. And I dont think, at least in this case, that its an issue of the prompts being corrupted for example, "AI, show me a statistical outcome where the Packers win it all" then presented as just an unbiased prediction. I think it's simply a matter that each new season is so far out of line with all the seasons that preceded it, that using last season to predict this seasons outcome is impossible. There are too many stats that affect too many other stats. Hell, we can't even figure the orbit of three bodies in space because each one affect the other (the three body problem) so how can anyone or anything ever solve something this complex? At the core it's not a matter of the stage of technology. 10,000 years from now they still won't be able to predict the complete outcome of a season of football. If such a thing WAS calculable by any level of technology, then the future would be predetermined, and we would not even have free will! Quantum Mechanics in physics proves to us that you can never know enough to predict the future with any accuracy. No matter how advanced your technology. The uncertainty principle literally conserves the future as probabalistic, and in doing so, preserves a space for our free will. All that said, AI can do a damn good job of giving likely outcome ranges. It doesnt take a computer to know that Trubisky isnt gonna have 4,000 yards next year, and Williams will have more than 1,000. There are things that can be reasonably known. From that point of view the info adam has posted is excellent. It says "you have quantifiably good players. You are very likely to succeed with them" It cannot say that they wont get injured, or how many yards they will have with any real certainty. Or that DJ Moore wont get pissed off that he's not the big name in town anymore and quit on the team. That kind of thing isn't in the data set, so it can't find its way into pattern matching outcomes either. Even the simple question of how Caleb Williams will handle adversity and coaching cant be in the data set. No matter how well you sift his on the field numbers, you wont find an answer there. So in this case AI is another tool for statistically quantifying that you have good players and arent crazy to have high expectations. It IS likely we will be much better next year. But to say that Moore will have 850 yards or 1,300 is beyond the scope of that or any technology. The existing data doesn't tell anywhere near enough of the story to use it to predict what's gonna happen. Or even how defenses will cover our WRs. Who gets doubled is gonna affect those numbers a lot.

Ha! Love this! Has anyone ever seen anything like this before? It's rare enough for the guy being tackled to try to lateral or something, but the RB has no idea what Williams is doing!

for sure, and for me, against NFL DBs. I think our defense will do a good job of giving Caleb looks before he gets into NFL games. I remember for many years Bears QBs looking shell shocked when we played other teams, because our defense in practice wasnt very good.

Im just scouting his abilities, and what his game looks like. Im not still at the decision to take him, Im interested in his style, and what he does well.

Im just posting this again. Instead of reading articles (although that one above is excellent!) I just watch 5 min of this at a time. Sometimes 20 minutes LOL It's literally every throw from 2023. The more I watch it the more I think he is even better than I thought he was. It includes all the bad plays too. But you can watch (some of) it and get a real sense of him as a player. It transcends stats and narratives, and you can just see what kind of QB he is. Spolier alert: he's very very good.

I'm glad you did share it.

I'm watching more Williams film. Found this: EVERY throw or run from Caleb in 2023. Not a highlight reel, and not cherry picked - it's ALL of it. It's about an hour and a half long LOL Im in about 3 minutes, so I havent seen much. One thing jumps out though - when Caleb runs in the pocket, he keeps his eyes downfield, and often finds a receiver where other QBs would have just run. That's where all your time to throw numbers are getting screwed up. It's plays that other QBs never would have thrown the ball, and therefore don't go into their average, but Williams can throw it after 10 seconds, so it goes to his numbers. You can also see LOTS of plays where the read is fast and the ball comes out fast. So this isnt a guy who holds the ball. Its a guy who runs the offense and when hes under pressure or low quality WRs are not open, he buys time in the pocket and then finds them anyway later. The stat punishes him for that. It would make him look better if he just ran, or threw the ball away earlier. But in truth, you want a guy that can extend plays when they arent there. What you dont want is a guy who cant get the ball out of his hands, and that is clearly not Williams. It's just San Jose St, so it's not like a tough opponent, but watch the first 3 minutes. Look at the fumble and what happens. Cool.

I think it is definitely in our future.

oh yeah, Im not predicting anything about this team based on the past - just that it's time for payback, and it's been an awful road to get here.

We will have a roster of names that will be pretty much the same roster that does win a superbowl, but first we need to gel and learn what it takes to beat the really good teams. It's not just a matter of having good players, to beat KC you've got to learn what it takes to win. Ive cited the Jordan Bulls and needing to get past the Pistons, and the 84 Bears losing to the 49ers before they learned what it took to dominate. Im not saying a SB is impossible, but it's not expected. It would be lucky. Also, didnt you JUST accuse me of thinking that Caleb was perfect and without flaws? I think Ive just been realistic the whole time, but it goes at odds with positive and negative press pieces.

it kills me. and the worst is that someone would pipe up and say "thats not true! we beat them twice in the last ten years!" Which is almost worse LOL Since 2009, which is 15 years ago, we have beaten the Packers four times. Our record vs them over those 15 years is an astonishing 4 - 22, or a 15% winning rate. Our SHORTEST losing streak in that time was 4 in a row. I cant wait for all the payback.

yeah thats completely awful and you have my deepest sympathies. I sent the PM in January, and the computer says your read it in February. I couldn't imagine losing my daughter. I am sure that anything anyone ever said to me here would fade to nothing if I was in the middle of that. Of course I had no idea you were dealing with that. My letter obviously means nothing in the face of all that, so I'm not surprised you don't recall. And of course it's fine.

yeah youre both right - it will probably take more than just a straight swap. Last year we paid a 2nd alone for Sweat. Given Hendrickson's age, I'd say he is worth a 3rd. Herbert is probably worth a 4th, so the trade youre proposing adam, seems about right, and it's an easy yes. If we get Hendrickson then this team is absolutely playoff bound, even with some rookie growing pains for the QB.

So apparently the Bengals are calling asking about Khalil Herbert in trade. They need a RB, having just lost Dixon. At the same time, Trey Hendrickson, their best edge rusher has asked for a trade. He had 17.5 sacks last year and has two years remaining on his deal. Hmmmm.

In fact, so everyone can see, here is the letter I sent to you. Just so everyone is clear on exactly how I have been trying to proceed. You read it on February 14th. --- Hey Pix, just to be clear I have zero problem with you. I have always respected you and we have known each other for like 15 years. I know you created this place too, and over the years Ive said thank you for that too! And Ill say it again! Thank you! I know what happened with Stinger, and I'm sure it has stained my perception in your eyes. I get that. I knew it would happen, and I apologize that anyone else had to be put off by that. I wont restate my side of all of that, Ill just say i get why your view of me may have changed, and I am sorry that you had to see it. All I can say is that I am actually a very friendly nice person. I always make random people at the grocery store laugh. I raised my kids the right way, and I take care of my neighbors. No one would describe me as negative or anything like that in my real life. And I get the feeling that you are a similar kind of person too. You always came across warm and caring on this board. I always felt badly as you went through your various health challenges over the years. So anyway, a lot of this online stuff is the tone of voice we read each other's words in. After my fight with Stinger, Im sure my voice in your head sounds different. And if you read what I wrote to you in a defensive angry tone, then Im sure it reads a lot nastier than it does in the tone I had in my head when I wrote it. Anyway, I am not angry with you, I never have been, I respect you and I apologize to you for what went on earlier. I hope that all helps

see, youre being a jerk right now. I just plainly said you are free to disagree with me, just keep it to facts about what we are disagreeing about, and not my character or mental state. You cant possibly be this dumb, therefore, you're trolling, despite your protestations. Also, the PM I sent you shows you read it in February. Be the man you're pretending to be and we will be fine. Keep up this nonsense, and dont be surprised if I return serve. It's pretty simple.

seriously. There's a joke. I dunno if i've told it on here before, but it goes like this: The other day I was at my friends house. He's a Packers fan and we were watching the Bears Packers game together. The Packers won and all of a sudden his dog starts doing these amazing acrobatics and back flips. And I say "wow! look at your dog doing all those back flips - what's that about?" and my friend says "well every time the Packers beat the Bears, my dog does all these flips and acrobatics" so I asked "what does he do when the Bears win?" And my friend said "I dunno, I've only had him for 10 years" We need revenge.

we have a bunch of guys like this now too. Some of them will bear fruit for sure.

The PM shows you read it. It feels like a LOT of gaslighting to me. Anyway, ike I said, I respond in the tone that comes to me. If youre respectful and fact based then so am I. If youre not, then Im not. You will also notice that even as we "fight" over this, on other threads Im responding to the content of what youre saying, sometimes agreeing. We are not in a personal war. Im just going to continue to be symmetrical. Your tone will define mine in our interactions on a case by case basis. Which would be a very surprising outcome if someone was actually paranoid.