BearFan PHX

true, but if someone is offering 3 firsts, they arent going to trade him to us for a single first and a third for example, no matter how much Garrett hates it. If on the other hand, he has a clause, and they NEED to trade or cut him for cap reasons, and he wants to play in Chicago, that would be different. Im not saying any of this will happen, just saying that youre right about CLE not wanting to look bad, but only within reason?

Yes, that's the right way to value a future pick for sure. and the plot thickens! I wonder if Garrett has a clause where he has to approve where he's being traded to. I would imagine that he does. And if your analysis is correct (and it seems right to me) then better for CLE to get something rather than nothing, so who knows what draft picks it might take to get Garrett if he wants to come here. I'm obviously engaging in that wishful fan thinking, but it is the season

re: the Jimmy Johnson chart - use this one instead - it's more modern and made to fit the last 20 years of actual trades. its much closer to how the teams value the picks, because it is mathematically derived from all the trades over that period of time. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

without knowing any specific players yet to target, a trade down this year seems like a good idea in general.

there will be times we will get burned by being aggressive too, and most likely we will blame the players for getting beaten, but I agree that i find it so much more appealing to fight than to play it safe in a constant zone. Now, of course there is a time and place for zones too. if the offense knows it's gonna be man before the snap, they will beat us. But the same goes for knowing we will be in zone too. I'm excited to attack on both sides of the ball. I also agree there will be a learning curve, so we will need to be patient. High risk brings high reward, but it also brings times you lose, and as you said, we will lose more at first until we get used to it. As for Byard, I agree we will need veteran leadership. I had heard that another big name free agent safety will be available, and it is possible we could get rid of Byard, and bring that guy in instead (I forget his name) but either way your point remains - veteran leadership at the safety position.

Obviously Poles' job is safe for a while. And it's too late to change him even if we didn't think so, so all that is a given. But he focused on the OL last year, and laid an egg, and he kept Eberflus, which was also a terrible move. I'm not sold on him being our best option, but I also fully agree it is way too late to do anything about it. Hopefully, with the help of a superior staff giving input on players our drafts will be much better. If he is easy to work with, and the staff get the players they want, then poles will look very good and I'll be happy. Having a strong GM with vision is best, but if you have a strong coach who wants input into decisions, and makes good ones, then having a team player at GM who is competent and gets things done works really well too. He may not have that golden eye, but if the coaching staff does, then that's a very workable shape too.

Im JUST starting my investigations of draftable players, and I know Im late to the party, and without having seen much at ALL yet, I put on some Will Campbell highlights, and damn he is a beast.

yeah you can see they are setting up mentoring situations, and building a bench for when people leave. This is how you end up with a "coaching tree" Youthful enthusiasm and energy blended with wise experience in the same position group is a good recipe.

So we have hired a new DL coach. Hes apparently had success with DLs everywhere hes gone. He teaches an attacking style, and was Jacksonville's DL coach last year, where he coached Travon Walker to a career high 10.5 sacks. Jacksonville's DC Ryan Neilson, was Dennis Allen's DL coach at New Orleans. I like pairing him with 69 year old Bill Johnson who is a defensive assistant, and was also a DL coach under Dennis Allen in New Orleans.

no, that's right for sure. I just meant maybe a few months ago, or when we hired Johnson, maybe he had someone better in mind. We just put together a first class coaching staff, and I wonder if Poles is at their level is all.

If we can afford it, having Miles Garrett is a no brainer for any team. It seems the salary cap is very friendly for us. The question is what it would cost in draft capital. 3 firsts is a hard no for me. Even 2 firsts is probably more than I'd want to pay. One first is easy, because as Ashkum says, we might well spend that first this year on an edge anyway, so that's easy. Someone will pay more draft capital than we can probably afford, so I dont see him being a Bear, but if there was some way to get him, it would be a MAJOR step toward a superbowl victory (or more than one!).

Yeah thats totally fair. The trade cost for the picks is a big problem. But his salary cap space is tiny. I dont see how he can want a new deal when he just got one and is good thru 2027? And he would elevate this defense to top 5 immediately. EDIT: Looking again, it might be closer to $20M a year, depending on how "prorated options" work, I dont really understand them. But worst case scenario it's like $16M this year, and $20M each the next 2. Im not saying Im for it, because we absolutely need the OL revamped first 100%. But if we somehow got that done with free agency, then maybe it's a possibility? FWIW Adam Schefter mentioned us as a likely landing spot for Garrett...

FWIW its not a ton of cap space, hes under contract thru 2027 for $8 million a year, because most of his contract was signing bonus.

sure sounds like it, and even without this data point, wed be fools not to

From what I read he sounds like a great hire. But then again, I read a lot about Eberflus too LOL But yeah, until i hear otherwise, Im on board, and he will absolutely be a step up from Morgan. THAT I know.

I suppose it makes sense, but with all these bold moves, Im wondering if there is a better option out there?

youre probably right, but then again, no roster in the NFL is ever complete, and if Dennis Allen and Ben Johnson believe that Miles Garrett is the piece to make this a championship defense, then you have to consider it. All in context of course that you HAVE to replace most of the OL from last year. If that can be done with free agents, and remaining draft picks, Id roll with Swift etc another year to add Garrett. But yeah, until we can protect Caleb, nothing else can matter. Maybe we can do both. All that said, I assume we will pass on Garrett, but if Johnson and Allen say yes, Im all for it.

If Garrett is holding out, we might get him for less. On the other hand, a huge percentage of his money came as a signing bonus. We'd have him through 2027 for $8 Million a year. That's gotta be worth something in draft capital!! The Browns would take a huge cap hit. And he'd probably want a new deal before 2027.

for sure

He definitely was a hard runner, and not a finesse guy. It's hard to say what order to draft guys in. I agree with you that OL is our primary issue, but we need RB, DL too. I think best player available comes into it, as well as what we get in free agency. This looks like a good year for a trade down, but i havent done any work yet on the players to even have a wrong opinion yet, no less a good one.

He brings a championship presence, hes a tough guy, and if Declan Doyle gets poached after Caleb has success, he is used to being an OC that doesnt call plays, so he could be waiting in the wings. I suppose it's the same if Doyle fails too. I think it's a smart move.

I should have said has been completely ineffective building the OL, all but ignoring that group in the draft. I agree Wright is good. But the rest, I just don't share your enthusiasm for what we have. i think we well could see four new starters on the OL. I agree we will be players in free agency ont he OL, but that's always a gamble too, and unfortunately, given our situation, one we have to take. I hope it works out for us. As for Davis, there were articles at the time we signed him that he refused to practice and was lazy and not team oriented. So I dont think it was the death of his grandmother that was the underlying issue. His tape looked good, but the red flags were there. Tevin Jenkins is always injured, and we knew that too going into last year. He is a good player, but he isn't reliable. Bates was supposed to start at OC, but again, we threw our hopes into a guy who was injured, and never really saw the field.

I agree that if you can give any backup QB in the league 5 clean seconds on every play, they would be All Pro, but of course the DL has something to say about that too. It's hard to be consistently dominant on the OL, even if you allot a ton of resources there. But that's not an argument for how we've been either. Completely ignoring the OL is a recipe for failure for sure. Between those two extremes, you are right - a good OL elevates mediocre players. And of course thats why a good DL can win games too!

I know this must be like Christmas for you Jason, everyone is so OL focused now. Let's hope we can get it right, because with the right OL (and DL), this team could go far. And I can hear you saying "ANY team could go far with good lines!"

This is a good article, that kind of nails Poles' failure on the OL. I agree with Stinger that a lot of what this guy writes is trash, but I agree with him on this one. https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/the-actual-reason-ryan-poles-keeps-failing-on-the-offensive-line/ EDIT: for high round picks. Once you get into the 3rd round, it's a different story. So maybe the problem is just that we haven't spent higher round picks on the OL (Wright excepted of course, and he's our best OL player) For curiosity's sake, here are our OL draft picks from the last 8 years. 2024 Kiran Amagadje Yale 3rd round 2023 Darnell Wright Tennessee 1st round 2022 Braxton Jones Southern Utah 5th round Zachary Thomas San Diego St 6th round Doug Kramer Illinois 6th round Ja'Tyre Carter Southern 7th round 2021 Tevin Jenkins Oklahoma St. 2nd round Larry Borom Missouri 5th round 2020 Arlington Hambright Colorado 7th round Lachavious Simmons Tennessee St 7th round 2019 none taken 2018 James Daniels Iowa 2nd round 2017 Jordan Morgan Kutztown 5th round