BearFan PHX

I agree on the idea that DE is more of a premium position than WR in the abstract. I also agree that the most important thing is to take talent, so a gamebreaking WR is more important than a decent but unspectacular DE, and vice versa too of course. I see us taking a DE, LOT or WR (or Bowers?) at #9, and possibly trading back. I just think that given how we've seen talented QBs fail, that putting that pick on offense helps Caleb out. And i am less concerned with a 2024 Superbowl run. If I could only have this team for this year, Im looking at a DE for sure, but if the window is really 2025 and beyind, then you are gonna get that WR and DE both in the next two years, and again talent being equal, I see the WR being more beneficial because they can have a moment to grow under Allen and develop chemistry with Williams. But again, all the points you guys made about talent are what should guide us. LOT, DE or WR whoever grades out as a blue chip starter, and if none do, then you trade down maybe to a position where someone still is, like center or Thomas at WR etc. If Alt or Fashanu are there (depending again on how you grade them) that wouldnt be a bad pick at all either. You grow your QB and LOT together, and then youve got something special with Wright on the other side for the next 10 years. But if youve got a blue chip grade on a DE, no problem taking that guy either. Not best in this draft, but true impact player projection? That's a good pick.

I think it also depends on whether youre looking at this years roster, or long term. So far everything Poles has done has been with an eye on the long term. 2022 being the first move in that. Of course at some point he will shift into a win now mentality too. And probably not as a light switch, but more of just adjusting the mix. I truly think our window opens next year. That gives Caleb a year to learn the NFL. Im not putting a ceiling on what the team can do this year either. Maybe they will develop quickly, and the team that we have in December could be a lot more in rhythm than we are in September. But taking the long view, and understanding that Allen is just here for a short while, I think you want to use Allen not just to catch passes this year, but to give leadership to a young player, who develops chemistry with Williams going forward for many years. For this reason I feel like if the talent is equal, a DE would be better for this year, where taking a WR would be better for the long run. Either way, you're getting the other one next year. So is it better next year to add a WR new into the mix when youre already rolling and potentially losing Allen, or add pass rush piece to a team on the edge of dominating next year? For me it's the WR now that makes the most sense in rhythm of building a team. But that's all things being equal. I dont know how they have the Defensive Linemen ranked vs the WRs. Also you dont want to take a guy at 9 if you can have him at 15, someone like LSU's Thomas for example. If you have a pass rusher as "best in 3 years" then you take him, but since none of them are ranking that high this year, I dont see an argument for grabbing them now and waiting on the WR other than the way the roster is built this particular year. So Id look long term rather than short term. Also, taking a lesson from all the QB failures, you want to surround your guy with as much talent as you can, so i think pick 9 goes to offense. WR, OT possibly Bowers. Maybe trade down a few slots for a specific player like Thomas or JPJ, but in every case it's because you've targeted an offensive player as a foundational piece long term. So while I get what adding a DE means this year because we have Allen, I think it's better to get that WR now and let Caleb get chemistry with him, and then pick up the DE next year, when there may even be more depth at that position in the draft? It all comes down to long term vs win this year, and of course how you have the prospects graded out.

It doesnt really matter, what i think is important is that we know other guys have skipped the combine all together, so going but not giving a physical, if hes the only one that ever did that, is only special or sticks out because he went. The not giving a physical was also true of every player thats skipped the combine in the past. So it isnt that Caleb is out a limb by himself in not giving a medical - what's unique is that he was there at all and didnt give one - which is a lot less character-problem-y to me if hes not the only one who didn't give a medical. Cuz showing up anyway is a positive over not showing up.

in the pros youre right, but he did have a bunch of games with 40+ points but for sure in the NFL every QB needs to learn how to move the chains. big plays are great, but then youre 1st and 10 again, so you gotta keep it moving.

so Caleb is the only one that ever refused to do a medical while at the combine, but others have skipped it all together? Interesting. Id rather a guy show up at least than not show up, so maybe Caleb was being cooler than players who skip it entirely, including not doing a physical. I mean each player is going to take a hit for doing this, but if they know they are the #1 pick in spite of it, then they dont really worry about it.

well i think everyone knew that Fields needed to increase his skills reading defenses, but no one could predict whether he would or not? I feel the same about Daniels. Maybe he will be great in 3 years, maybe not. At least with Caleb we can see he has a lot of skill doing that already, so we dont need to project something he doesnt already do.

This year the offense is stacked, but next year we will need a WR. I can see the logic of getting one now, letting Caleb and the rookie get chemistry, and when Allen goes the now kid will be ready. If you look at just this year, what you say makes all kinds of sense, if you look longer term, then theres a need for WR too. That said I also see the value of DE, 3T, OT too, just not sure who the blue chippers are at 3T

I need to watch film on him, but this is good to hear

100% I think too many scouts, pundits, writers and fans focus on the physical tools and not enough on the mental aspect of playing the position. This is why Jayden Daniels is down on my board. He's got tons of physical tools, and i can totally see some NFL coaches thinking "I can teach him how to play the position" but when you look at Justin, you see what the risk of that kind of thinking is. If you were going to build a prototype QB body, you'd build Fields. But you gotta look at the software too.

great article. lots to digest. its always tough to read stats out of the context of the film, but there are definitely some interesting points here.

for sure, and Allen is getting older too, even if it's not another team that takes him away. DJ Moore is gonna be a Bear for a long time I think. He is worth what we pay him. And you need two good WRs to make an offense work. This is why drafting a WR is so important this year. Allen is more than a placeholder, hes a multiplier to mentor the rookie, and the rookie will come on as Allen fades. Plus paying DJ Moore, youre gonna need that other WR on a rookie deal. The more I think about what I read here (was it ASHKUM?) the more I think that if MHJr, Odunze and Nabers are not available to us, we could trade down from 9 to like 15 and take Thomas, the other LSU WR there.

This is my thinking too - especially now that the roster has filled out some.

I agree with a lot of this. Im not suggesting that a coach needs to be a yeller. When I was thinking of Parcells, I was thinking of him yelling "this is why you lift all them weights" to inspire - not yelling out of anger. I just dont read Fous as an alpha. Of your list i think Wannstedt and Fox were alphas. Jauron and especially Trestman were pussies. nagy had a kind of fake swagger that felt insecure to me. And youre right, lots of alpha coaches do porly too, because there are lots of things that go into being a good coach, and leadership is only one of them. But i dont think Flus is an inspiring leader. But he got the gig, and now he is surrounded by talent and what seems to be an excellent coaching staff. So while I dont see Flus as being an impediment to winning or anything like that, I also think we lost the opportunity to bring someone in who would add an edge to us winning that Flus lacks. Still I think think we can win anyway. But I wont be surprised if year 3 Caleb Williams yells at Flus on the sidelines or shows leadership to bring the team out of some mud, pulling the coaches along with him. Flus isn't a top dog type. And I will also say that some alphas are quiet. I still dont think Flus is one of them though? No doubt Landry was quiet, but he was the unquestioned alpha in the room, I'm sure you agree. Not by title alone, but by personal energy, even if it was quiet.

for sure. to me, Id add that Flus is not the kind to command respect. He may well earn respect, as a nice guy, a guy you can trust, but i just cant see him scaring anyone. Hes a good cop. Poles hugging is an example of him being a good cop too. Im not saying they cant cut anyone, but I dont know if they can motivate the kind of players who need the stick instead of the carrot to change so they don't need to be traded or cut? Or in game? I think of how motivating Bill Parcells was on the sidelines, and i think we miss an opportunity for that sort of leadership by having Flus as our HC. But maybe Caleb will take on that role. Some might say its insubordinate or inappropriate, and they well could be right on rank alone, but leaders lead, especially when (if) there is a vacuum from above. Maybe Jalen Carter wouldnt respond to that kind of coaching. Maybe they know this and are building a certain kind of culture, call it modern, I dunno.

right, but unless Caleb invited him, you cant really take any hidden meaning from it? For example, and Im totally making this up, maybe Caleb isnt sold on the Bears and has told them he is interviewing them too. Then the bears ask Allen to show up to try to convince Caleb. Im not saying that's true, Im just saying how different scenarios could all fit Allen's attendance?

for sure. There are scenarios where QBs go 1234, and the Bears trade up to 5 to get MHJr. That would be insane - unlikely, but awesome. Because youre totally right, Moore is like Steve Smith, but MHJr is like Randy Moss. More of an X. Was it you that posted earlier about Allen in the slot? Saying this same logic might also mean a trade down from 9 to 15th-ish to take LSUs Thomas as an X? I keep thinking on that, and it makes a lot of sense.

yeah, and I guess that he and Caleb have hung out before too. But youre right, it's not like he flew in. But he did already have his Bears stuff on. Also, apparently on ESPN, Caleb was asked about the Bears roster and he said "and now we have Keenan here for a 4th rounder" and in slipping up and saying "here" some people think that's a sign that it's all a done deal. I doubt very highly that Poles has told Williams it's for sure though - not until he gets his Halas Hall visit and whatever tests he wants to put him under (remember Wright last year) - and I dont think it's that the tests are necessary for the decision, but if you already tell the guy it's 100%, then how are you gonna test him after that with a straight face? LOL It's like a weird dance - they both know where it's going but they're still pretending they don't - maybe that's what's making it awkward? They arent "teammates" yet. I do think that once Caleb gets established, if he becomes great, he might take an alpha roll on the team over Eberflus and Poles - and while that's generally inappropriate, he might also drag everyone in the building to super bowl wins. Maybe Caleb will be the accountability we needed. And I wouldnt hate that.

I am seriously going to hold my breath until they actually read the name off of the card at the draft. Starting now. (deep inhale)

Yeah Flus is cringey. I still dont know exactly why they kept him, but I do feel like the staff around him is top notch. Once they all go into battle together, that should help cohere them into a family.

In my job I met and worked with a lot of celebrities. Most are extreme, either the nicest person you ever met, or a giant jerk - about 50/50. But one person I met was the most boring person Ive ever met. His personality was like mashed potatoes. it wasnt just that he was so nothing, but it like took all the energy out of everyone standing near them too. It was like a cloud of calm. And that was Joe Montana. He was like a black hole of a personality. Not negative, just incredibly neutral. I can imagine it's the end of the superbowl, and the pressure is intense, and Joe just looks at Dwight Clark and says "just run about 10 yards into the corner there, and then Ill throw the ball and you catch it. easy." that kind of calm in a storm was probably like a superpower. So yes, Caleb seems both insecure and cocky all at once. It's a lot for a young man to be capable of, and invested in, greatness, while still be a kid that has never thrown a ball in the NFL. I think he will grow into it. It's pretty impressive that he's come this far so young. But is it incomplete and somewhat awkward - it totally is.

lol

Cool - good question. I cant speak to the specific play (unless you find me a specific time on the film to look at), but in general when Caleb didnt get the ball out fast, he was generally looking for deeper receivers, where Justin was just afraid to throw. Caleb was buying more time in the pocket and still reading the defense, where Justin would be running out of the pocket and then structure would break down. Also, I very rarely saw Justin make those plays in rhythm, especially after the scripted first plays, where I have seen Caleb do it dozens of times. So I dont think Justin CAN do it, where I think Caleb just needs to do it more, but has shown he can do it a lot. Understand too, that Caleb didn't lose a game where his defense held the opponent under 34 points! All those losses were games where he had to be a Brett Favre like gunslinger. And I agree he will need to understand the wisdom of moving the chains in the NFL, but then again, he'll have a defense too? That's the difference I see. If you watch the Colorado game for example, Caleb is making all kinds of reads in tempo. That'd be my answer of the difference anyway. I dont think Caleb has any real problems as a QB, I just hope his character fits and that he wants to be here and is coachable.

awesome, thank you! I just try to look at film so sometimes that means I have ideas that aren't in harmony with whatever narratives are out there. Sometimes Im right, and sometimes Im just swinging out in the wind. But it makes for good stuff to debate anyway.

agree. I sure hope not tho.

fair enough - lets say warming to the idea. or even if you like the haul, that doesnt diminish Caleb's upside either? Something like that?