BearFan PHX

right now, to win one game a month from now, I'd rather have Caleb as my QB than Justin. See, you can compare them.

If you ask a plumber if they can fix your toilet, they say "of course" they dont say "well some people say Im good at plumbing, but golly gee, I mean you know everyones pretty good at it" If you ask a lawyer "can you handle this case" they will give you a fully confident answer. But if you ask a musician or an actor or an athlete, theyre supposed to shuffle their feet and act humble. And it's dumb. Ask Deion Sanders if he could cover people. Or Michael Jordan if he can make a game winning shot. Caleb knows who he is and visualizes a future. Im in.

lol well Im not gonna blame him for his draft choices, but if I did more research maybe I would! LOL

ha! its ok! I said screw him, so the pushback is symmetrical! I think Gabriel is full of crap about this double secret anti Caleb stuff. That's all I really mean to say. I think he's being an agent of disinformation in this case, which I understand is not uncommon in the NFL. And if so, it's anti-Bear too. But I've got nothing else against the guy. No other examples.

you had just said "better surrounding cast, better results" so I said Caleb balled out in College without a surrounding cast. Of tcourse youre right that the better the team, the better the results, but in predicting Justin, who the NFL deemed to be the 4th QB taken, was harder because he had been surrounded by talent, whereas Caleb is doing it without talent. Also, Caleb will be coming into a situation surrounded by talent as well. No one projected Mayfield or Murray (or Fields) the way they are projecting Williams. It's just a projection, but it's based on how he plays the position. I think the biggest divide in people talking about QBs is that some respond to physical traits (which are necessary) and others, like me, respond to being football players and playing the position of QB mentally. For example, I would rather have JJ McCarthy than Jayden Daniels. Daniels is the better athlete by far in every way, and so his ceiling is very high, but his floor is also pretty low. He will have to develop a way of thinking he hasnt shown to get there in the NFL. McCarthy has a higher floor. He might have a lower ceiling too athletically, but he knows how to play the position, moving safeties, making reads etc, so he is more of a QB to me. The best is to have both. Williams is a very good athlete. Maybe not quite the athlete that Fields is, but just a tick under that. Certainly not as big. But he has such advanced mental skills and instincts. The way he keeps the pocket going by moving around his linemen and resetting their blocks for them. The way he read defenses and makes choices. ANd his heroball when it all breaks down. He has physical tools, but a lot of players do. Its the mental part of Williams that sets him apart.

Absolutely. I am not predicting anything other than that Caleb is the first pick of the draft and goes to Chicago. I'm just saying, for the sake of discussion, there is some tiny percentage of a scenario where Poles knows Williams won't play for us, and will trade down or take a different QB at #1. And we would never know that was why it happened. WHEN Poles takes Williams with #1, then this silly scenario will cease to exist. but IF we trade out of #1 or don't take Williams, then this is what i'm going to believe is the reason why. But it's silly. Caleb will be a Bear, and Tyler Scott is gonna get paid in a bidding war between Caleb and Keenan LOL I completely agree with you there is no way the Bears would choose to skip over Caleb, even for a haul, if he is available to them.

True. But then again, Caleb had a crappy surrounding cast and did a lot of things on the field that Justin never did in Chicago. There will be a growth curve for Caleb, no doubt. If he stumbles in year one, I'm still gonna have patience, but I suspect we will see inconsistency with a large sprinkling of great plays to show flashes of what he can do in the league. What did Stroud do? 11 wins, and a single playoff victory. That's impressive for a rookie, but i think 10 wins is in reach for this team, and a playoff berth. Could they win one playoff game after that year of growth? Why not? But even if we get 10 wins and dont win a playoff game, that'll be tremendous, and Stroud-like. I think it'd be hard to only have 7 wins this year. Draft Kings had Bears as top 7 NFC teams to go to the playoffs, and this was even before the Fields trade. I think you're reading too much sportwriter narrative here. Caleb has dozens and dozens of plays on tape playing in structure. People may think he looks for home runs too much, but that doesnt mean he doesnt play successfully in structure regularly. He is absolutely a processing Quarterback - in fact it's the processing that is why everyone is calling him generational etc. Its not his athleticism or arm, which are good but not like there arent people in every draft including this one with those skills too, and hes only 6' 1" - the reason there is so much hype around him is precisely because of how well he does play in structure, and like a Justin type when the play breaks. I dont think he has a lot of adjusting to do mechanically or mentally, he will just need to adjust to the new speed around him, like all rookies have to. Of course that is true, and you can say that about anyone, but Caleb clearly has a lot of faith in himself, and is extremely competitive, so a slow start should make him fold, it ought to bring out the competitor in him. I dont think this is a real concern. There is a reason everything thinks he is the #1 guy. hes not just another rookie.

Yeah it would be weird for Williams to not want to come here now with this roster and offensive coaching staff. Neither of which was in place when that rumor came out.

that would say a lot. I dont think 10 wins is out of reach for this team either. But rookies have their growing pains, so its hard to know how it will start off.

I agree with this. I also think there is some chance that Williams really doesnt want to go to Chicago, but doesnt want to be hated, so he quietly tells Poles this, and Poles wouldnt want it to be known that he wasnt powerful enough to force Williams to play, so he'd keep it a secret too. If we dont draft him, Im going to wonder if that was it as well. And I suppose you could count that as something in his character, so it also agrees with what you said. But for example, I never thought anything was wrong with Eli's character, but he did the same thing, and in retrospect, it turns out to have been the right move for him.

I agree with most of this, except that Williams deosnt get the ball out quickly. there are dozens of plays on film where he gets it out just like Daniels. He reads progressions and makes quick decisions in tempo, with a lighting release too. What he ALSO does is extend time in the pocket and look for homeruns too much. that's what skewed that Time To Throw stat. Not an indecisiveness or inability to play in structure. Then again, if I won every game when my defense defense held the opponent under 35 points, and still lost a bunch ,of games Id be looking for lots of home runs too. As for Daniels' accuracy, look at the Warner tape, his ball location has a lot of issues. He has two first round WRs on his team I guess is the answer? Williams definitely has more to learn in the NFL, but he is more NFL ready than anyone ive seen since Luck.

for sure. He's clearly not like Justin in that way, and Justin was an awesome, humble, one of the guys teammate. I suspect Williams to be more like Jordan, Brady, Rodgers etc - arrogant, overcompetitive, brutal in the pursuit of winning. ANd if he is a GOAT that will be fantastic. But if he is an average QB that kind of attitude will wear thin for sure. But then again if we thought he was gonna be average, we wouldnt be picking him. I hope he grows into his potential, and if he is a Los Angeles jerk of a star, I'll enjoy the Lombardi trophies LOL

its a matter of degree. you cant just equivocate that easily. I would say Warner is more lukewarm on Williams than JT OSullivan for example. I enumerated each play for Daniels, so if you want to argue that Daniels is better, then please tell me which plays you disagree with? I dont mean that sarcastically, I mean it for real. And do you see Williams being so inaccurate? He misses on a couple deep balls and sometimes when hes on the run, but generally Williams accuracy is superior. Also, Williams is moving his head and making reads, where Daniels seldom does. And Williams has an amazing compact release I haven't seen since Marino, and he manipulates the pocket like Rodgers.

Here's a prediction: Bears take Williams Commanders take Maye (unless they take Daniels) Patriots take McCarthy (unless Maye is there) Vikings trade up to 4, 5 or 6 to take Daniels (unless Maye is there) bad scenario: Vikings end up taking Penix

exactly. and no one he played with will be selected above the 3rd round in the draft. Also to the vaporous rumors about Williams' negative character, since there was never any substance that came out about them, couldnt it have been disinformational rumor seeding by Washington? I think Greg Gabriel got paid some money by Washington to seed this. And before you say that's paranoid I have heard several commentators say that they know reporters do this for money and for the guarantee of scooping breaking stories in the future from the same GM. Additionally I know of at least one pundit who says he was approached and offered money to do it. Greg Gabriel lost his inside source in Cliff Stein and was facing having no pipeline for info which is death for a pundit. So he makes a deal with Washington's GM to seed bad info about Caleb, possibly to shake him free to get to pick #2. And if he ends up screwing the Bears in the process why wouldnt he? Greg Gabriel is a stooge. Screw that guy.

OK. Kurt Warner has released his Jayden Daniels breakdown. I watched the first half of it, and wrote down what I saw for each play, timestamped so people can see what I mean and rebut it. What I saw was a LOT of 1 WR reads. I was also surprised to see terrible ball placement often. Daniels slipped even lower in my eyes as a result of this video. He seems to throw to his primary receiver whether they are open or not a lot, and rarely looks off safeties or makes progression reads. For the purpose of this I am calling every target "WR" and the number after refers to their progression order. So WR1 would be the first read WR etc. 0:55 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. 1:50 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast. Touchdown. 2:38 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. Same play as 0:55, same error, same result. Staring down WR is giving DB lead time to break on the ball. 3:17 Slight safety lookoff early, then locks onto WR1 long enough to draw DB attention. WR1 is double covered, and WR2 is open. Ball comes out late to WR1, almost intercepted. Incomplete. Very similar to 1:50 - is he actually reading defenses, or just throwing to the primary receiver every time? And having deceptive good stats because his WRs were good and often open? 5:04 Locks on to WR1 all the way. (yes it's a TE or back, I'm gonna call every target WR in this) WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast. 8 yd completion 5:59 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. Should have been a completion for a 1st down. But it was 4th down. Turnover on downs. 6:41 WR1 is not open. Other WRs are open late. Daniels looks around a bit, then runs. My claim is that when the primary receiver isn't open, Daniels runs. He does look around a bit first here, but rarely finds a second read in the pocket. Daniels scrambles, and makes something happen late outside the pocket out of structure. Terrible ball placement, excellent catch. 23 yd completion. 9:13 WR1 is covered. Daniels looks around. Finds a second read. WR2 is wide open. Terrible ball placement. Almost intercepted. Incomplete. 10:27 Locks on to WR1, his eyes draws safety so WR1 is covered. Has other options but doesnt see them. Tries to run. Sack or short gain. 12:01 WR1 is covered. Quick progression read from WR2 to WR3. Ball is out fast. 10 yd gain. This is what you want to see in terms of reading progressions. Excellent play. 13:03 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball out fast with good placement. 7 yd gain. 13:30 Locks on to WR1. WR1 is covered. Reads to outlet receiver. Ball out fast with good placement. 25 yd gain. Easy play, but executed well. 14:11 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast, but terrible placement. Incomplete. 14:52 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with good placement. 10+ yard gain. 15:13 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with terrible placement. WR1 was open. Had no chance to make a play. Possible WR1 ran bad route. Incomplete. 16:32 Reads 2 WRs, ball is out fast with good placement. Bad read, almost intercepted, but threads the needle. Touchdown. Figured I'd end on a "good" play. Warner is saying the same things I am. If you hate me, but love Warner, then just accept it because he said it. The fact that I agree doesn't make him wrong?

well said. I think a lot of the analysis that goes on is based on physical skills, and I think I tend to (also) look for being a football player. Yeah I saw that! Caleb did it too right next to him. They are both great. I have Caleb ahead because of his processing, but Maye is definitely my #2. I have some negatives on Maye too, but I'm not looking to crap on him. He could well have a good NFL career. But to me, Williams is in a tier above Maye.

I gotta say when people just say "soandso says [QB] is good/bad" it just goes right past me, but when someone makes a claim about a specific part of a players game or skill set, and I havent looked closely at that, it often makes me go searching to learn more, and sometimes change my mind too.

Based on this comment, I went searching. I had thought that Daniels had the strongest arm based on some nice passes I'd seen, but i totally admit I hadn't really done any kind of formal comparison, or counting yards on long throws etc. I still think Daniels may have the most accurate arm, but I did find this, which bolsters what you're saying. They rate the QBs on different attributes, and give a number rating to arm strength. I dont know who they are, it was just the first thing I found on google. Apparently they do next gen stats like PFF. Not saying their product is any better than PFF, just that they are a custom stat group. They claim that Joe Milton has the strongest arm of the class - which I believe having seen his insane throws at the combine. You were there, was it nuts? Anyway they give Milton an 8 score for arm strength. They give Maye and Williams each a 7, and Daniels a 6. So I just wanted to thank you for the factual rebuttal, and share what I found so far about it. https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-ranking-7-strongest-arms-in-this-years-qb-class/

fair. and Im not going to criticize any QB for taking his first read if it is open. And Daniels does deliver the ball quickly when he does. So that's a plus too. But when you keep watching you see he doesnt make multiple reads, or look off safeties, and locks in on his primary read. Then he either throws it to them, or runs. The end result is a lot of good completions to primary receivers, which looks good, but the deeper meaning is that he will have to grow a LOT to make it work in the NFL.

I was saying "almost never" and I used the word "never" and then followed it with (seldom?) to mean that i dont actually mean mathematically never, just really rare. I wrote it exactly as I meant it. It isnt a typo, and it doesnt mean I think the words mean the same thing. It meant that I was tipping my hat to the fact that I was using the word never in a slang way and not a mathematical one. Thank you for watching tape AND saying which game it was, I will watch it too - if you share a link we can watch the same film.

Interesting take re: Thomas. There is definitely a logic to it.

they paid him a lot of money for a fashion shoot and gave him clothes to wear. he doesnt just walk around like that. If GQ tells you to do something for a cover, a lot of stars would do it. But even if he dresses like a woman, I dont care . I love Dennis Rodman too. He just needs to be a great QB. Thats all that matters.

you gotta be kidding. immediately after using the word "never" I followed it with "(seldom?)" And yes, when a QB stares down the reciever you can see it. When he turns his head to look around you can see that too. Watch the film, youll see.

I havent paid attention to the D Line at all yet. Are there any 3Ts worthy of the #9 pick? Whos the best fit for us?