BearFan PHX

lol - once we are past this Justin thing, we will probably agree more.

no one should let go of what they believe. Why would they? I dont expect you to either. So im baffled why you think I should. Also, Caleb Williams has never heard of me. He is not great because I say so. Two months ago I had never even seen him play. It's not because I say it that it's true, it's that its true and now I say it because i have watched the tape and it's easy to see. But if you think Caleb is a bust for some reason, thats an opinion for sure. But the statistical argument you tried to make is just incorrect. Tell me why you dont like Caleb, and thats cool. I might disagree but i cant predict the future. But I can say the statistical argument you were making was wrong though - even if Caleb is a bust the stats still say he is a better chance at being great than a 2nd rounder would.

He could start games, but it would be as a backup due to injury or something. I just dont see anyone making him their starter. He has such incredible upside in so many ways, but he has a fatal flaw and defenses have figured it out, so if you take him now, its because you think you can coach him out of the thing theyve been saying about him since college, and i dont think most teams want that risk?

If you mean Hunter, he signed with the Texans

your math is ridiculous. youre literally not smart enough to understand.

Not sure I understand. In my analogy correctly calling the coin or rolling a six on the dice would correlate into having your pick become a great QB in the league i.e. a successful outcome from the risk. Im saying when you decide whether to take the risk or not, you can measure how risky something is. So while top picks have failed, and 6th round picks have excelled, it is more likely that a top pick will excel and a 6th round pick will fail. It's the difference between something being possible and likely.

nah youre not understanding the math here. You can throw ten dice and have them all land on six, but its not likely. You can get Tom Brady int he sixth round, but it's not likely. Youre much much more likely to get a bad QB in the sixth round. You're still arguing that all risks are the same, and they arent. And since they arent the rest of the argument falls apart? True. If we had Peyton Manning, I would not be drafting Caleb Williams. Then again, Peyton was nearing retirement. Even the Patriots moved on from Brady. The vast majority of the last 25 superbowls were won by 4 QBs, Mahomes, Brady, Manning and Eli Manning. Before that it was Montana, and Bradshaw etc. You cannot reliably win the superbowl without a top 2 (in the league) QB. You might get lucky once, but its not a plan for winning - it's extremely unlikely. I think Fields is awful, and cant read defenses. I dont think he could take any team to the Superbowl. Where are his 300 yard games? His 4th quarter comebacks? His consistent passing in structure and tempo? The guy makes great highlight reels running, but he will never take a team to the superbowl, and he will probably be out of the league soon. I dont think he will ever even be a starter for anyone again. And if so, they wont win 10 games in a season.

your trade scenarios the past week have been excellent dude. Good work being creative. This is exactly the right answer to the Justin problem. If you cant get a 3rd for him, then trade our third and Justin for a second. What a smart idea.

With Shelton on the team, I think it tells you a few things. First off, it tells you that Pryor is going to compete at guard, and probably end up the backup for the guard and center slots. He will push Davis for the starting role at RG. Secondly, it tells you that we aren't going to trade down in order to target JPJ in the bottom of the first. Thirdly, so far hes signed an OT, an OG AND an OC, and getting all three tells you that it's more likely that he isn't going to trade down the #1 pick, because he is filling so many holes, as if he isn't expecting to have a ton of extra picks this year. I expect a receiver (incl Bowers) at #9, and we would still have needs at DE and DT. This rebuild still has a year left, so it won't be perfect this year. The defense is looking pretty good, so I'd say we target QB with #1 and WR with #9. With these other holes all addressed, you wouldnt need a haul of picks. It's not "proof" but it's starting to lean that way for sure.

Yes and no. Every pick is a risk, but some QBs clearly have a better chance to be great than others. It's not completely random.You have to factor that in. Caleb Williams has a better chance to be great in the NFL than anyone in a while. That doesnt mean that he is guaranteed or that he couldnt bust while another prospect thrives. But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should. Some would say "but half the time you lose, so it's just as much of a gamble as the dice game" but it isnt. it is quantifiably 3 times more likely that you win the coin toss than the dice game. "But there was a time that the dice game won, so it's all a gamble" right, but its not the SAME gamble - its still three times better bet to play the coin flip. First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt. And Williams is a better prospect than the average #1 pick QB too. Just because something isnt 100% predictable doesn't mean that all gambles are the same. Thats the error in your logic. Yeah I really do. I still think he should have fired Eberflus, but we can get around that. Assuming he picks Caleb WIlliams with the #1 pick, I'm giving him an A overall. Maybe not an A+ (Eberflus, Velus Jones, Claypool) but still a solid A for sure. If he passes on taking a top pick QB and rolls with Justin, then I think that will be an epic error that will doom us for a decade (we wont have another #1 pick to get a GREAT QB) and Poles will get fired.

interesting I wouldnt be mad at that, but keep Bagent too pls

lol clever

No one is sayingt a #1 pick is a sure thing, but we posted allt he charts and analysis that shows the higher the pick, the more likely the player is to be good. And that's just basic. Also, not every draft is the same, sometimes there is a special player who is a better prospect than anyone who has come out in several years. Even last year, everyone was saying that WIlliams was a better prospect than anyone int he draft that year. Some people had Stroud rated higher, a lot had Young, and for sure lots of writers are bad at spotting talent, IF they even watch the film. I dont think a lot really do - I think they read and look at highlights. But if you watch the tape, you can see why Williams is a really good bet. And that's why so many teams would take him at #1.

if all the WRs are gone, and the Bears have an OT ranked high who falls, it's definitely a possibility. You dont go into a draft locked into a position with a pick unless you have the #1 pick. Weve seen that with good and bad GMs alike. It's just the way its done. Like playing poker - you cant control the next card, but you can play the odds over time, and picking BPA is always what you strive to be able to do.

I wonder what we could get for Khalil Herbert.

amazing. this is all working out so well

and you know this. LOL

lol - what Stinger said is just crazy. And that is the right word for it. Because Poles said he would try to get Fields traded quickly means that he isn't trading him. It's all a BIG smokescreen. Justin has actually known how to read defenses for 3 years, but they are just pretending he's bad so that the league will be surprised. Poles and Fields have both known all along that Fields is the man, and it's the biggest psy-op ever. No one can quite figure out what the advantage of it is, but BOY will people be surprised. And ya know what? When Fields is traded for a 5th round pick, or cut outright, or even kept on the team but told not to suit up because of injury, hoping for a September trade, there will be no where to hide. No scenario that explains it all away. The curtain will be pulled back and then we will see how inane this all was. Poles knows Justin sucks. Everyone in the league knows Justin sucks. It fits all the data, and you can watch it on film. I've known it since October of last year, and dragging people into the light kicking and screaming is exhausting. "I don't WANT a generational QB, i don't WANT to be a top team! I want Justin!" For gosh sakes, get on board already, the Superbowl train is leaving the station. Drop the Justin bobblehead and get with the happiness.

right. even if Justin goes, we will have Williams and Bagent as our 1 and 2, so this is a camp arm, and a possible #3 who you float on the practice squad

Poles is just making sure he covers every position he might draft, so he is free to get the guy that falls to #9. If a great LOT falls, then we could take him. WR will be the first most likely target I think, but if the top 3 are gone, we could look at OT or DL too. Or Bowers. So this creates backup and competition at LOT if we take a WR, but it isn't so much that it prevents us from drafting Fashanu or Alt if we love them and they fall while the WRs go early? I think we will go into this season wishing we had more impact players at two or three of these spots WR, LOT, OG, OC, DE and DT. And that will be when we put the cherry on top in next years offseason. This year we will be pretty loaded, but a couple of these cheaper signings could well get playing time too. We are on schedule to realistically compete for superbowls with a window opening in the 2025 season, and there is no law that says they couldnt gel this season and make a run either.

I think that even though Fields' contract is fully guaranteed, some of it is salary and roster bonus, and that is paid on the cap by whichever team holds his contact at the time those things come due? So if we cut him, it's on us, but if we trade him then it comes off our cap? I think offset language is for when we cut a player, but not a trade.

right - find a DE and a DT, and the D is complete. And the offensive roster is going to take a big jump forward this offseason too.

That is more likely than my scenario for sure. And I have heard the Bears might even prefer Nabers too, so there are options and permutations. And to Mongo - if four QBs go before pick #9, and there are three WRs we like, the odds are pretty good wed get one. And if not you have amazing options at LOT, Bowers or a top DL. One way or another though, we are getting another impact WR for sure.

Im not predicting this, but there is a scenario where Arizona trades out of #4 for a team that wants JJ McCarthy, and then the Bears trade up into #5 to take MHJr. Imagine getting Williams and MHJr to go along with DJ Moore, Kmet, and the new RB and TE2. Wed still need OL help from free agency, but if we traded our lower picks to make this happen, or maybe next years CAR #2 I wouldnt be mad at it at all.

Right, if they are winning 10 games, I cant imagine them firing Flus and moving everyone else up. Even if they think that would be better, its still not something you could really do. I see Flus as kind of a glorified defensive coordinator and executive head coach. I dont see him giving the offense an edge in winning the way that Belichick did for example, even though he was a defensive guy too, and of course I worry that if Waldron takes the offense to the moon, he would be gone to be a head coach somewhere, where Id rather keep him than Flus at that point. But it wouldnt be because Flus was awful but because Waldron gave you more. But like we all said, at that point it wouldnt really be possible even if it was smart because how do you fire a guy who is winning 10+ games a year on a team that is ascending? We have a passing game coordinator named Thomas Brown who is supposed to be incredibly charismatic and likely head coach someday, so he would step into Waldrons shoes if that happened and supposedly wed be in good hands. And to try to see into the future past Waldron and Brown is completely impossible. We should have that problem - winning multiple superbowls and losing two offensive coordinators in a row!