BearFan PHX

yeah, Im just saying that he screwed up, and not to make excuses for it, not that he is doomed in the future because of it. Whatever happens this year will determine what i think of the guy, and that's all anyone ever has anyway.

you dont need to be a head coach to knpw that going into a -prevent defense too early can cost you a game. We all know this. We also know that taking the go ahead field goal late int he game is the right move rather than going for it on 4th down, and that giving the ball to the TE for a sneak is being too cute. These were errors, and you dont need to be a head coach int he NFL before you can learn this. But the past is the past, and we will see how things go this year and moving forward. Im not juding him now by those past mistakes, but neither do i think it's part of learning. They were just wrong, but its Ok to move on.

sounds really good. glad to hear Bates get called out for doing well too in the run game. I do think in the past, young QBs like Trubisky and Fields were at a disadvantage because they only got really strong defense to learn against in games. Williams ought to benefit a lot from our current roster, and it's good to hear they are throwing a lot of different fronts at him and the OL.

thank you

For sure. Thats why I was saying earlier that part of his transformation might be the roster he has fighting for him now, and you're right that goes to his staff too. Being the captain of a ghost ship while you cut or trade all your old players, and before the new crew is assembled is a tough task for sure. You stand there, and go through it, but you know you suck. That's hard. Then when they tell you that they know it wasnt your fault, but heres finally a good group of players and you pretty much have to do something pretty good with them right now or those crap seasons are gonna count as a pattern can wake you up pretty fast. You want your dream? Fine here it is. And you basically get one chance to make it work. You have to be mentally tough and fight, even as you are confident and think there is a good chance youre gonna make it work and even win coach of the year! What a funny business. Youre totally right. When your team sucks, you take risks, and that makes you look bad. Winning, and losing, are contagious and affect every part of the team. Adding Sweat sure did get us past some threshold were everything started to get better. I agree with almost all of this, except the first sentence. I doubt they told him the past few seasons werent his "fault" - I can imagine them saying "we know its tough but you have to find a way" and that does somewhat acknowledge the situation. But if the team under performs this year, everyone knows that suddenly the past two years will be added to the data to justify a pattern. Kind of like how Justin's first two years were also excused, and had he been great last year, everyone would have said "yeah those first two years werent his fault" but since he didnt, then it became like a consistent three year narrative. Not saying thats fair, just how people think. I think Flus knows he could be coach of the year this year, or end up fired at the end of the season. Either are possible, and so he's not screwing around anymore being goofy and happy go lucky. He looks hungry, and dialed in. And that's great. Personally i think it will be hard to really fail that badly this year, so Flus is more likely a COY than fired. I see us winning 9 to 11 games, and making the playoffs. From there Im not sure. This team will be a lot more gelled and experienced in December. The talent ont he roster is undeniable now, but the chemistry, and identity have to be forged. If I had to bet, Id take the upside, and thats gonna bring Eberflus along for the ride. Hopefully he is leading, and not just riding the wave.

in the middle, I agree with you. But in the margins, a bad coach can mess you up. Eberflus lost us a few games with just the decisions he made, being too safe too early on defense with big leads, and occasionally being too aggressive or tricky on 4th down. But I think by now Eberflus is a middle coach, not saying he will continue to screw us like he did at all. To me the question is what about those few coaches that give you an active edge is winning? When you look at those EPA charts from the other day for example, KC doesnt leap out last year at all. They were good but their output wasnt stunning. But just like there is a difference between getting guys on base, and getting them home, so does a great coach put the production you do have into the best moments to win games, especially big games. I've heard coaches say that the first 3 quarters of the game just set the stage for the real game in the 4th quarter. That they have been calling plays or formations to read what the opponent will do that day in certain situations, and havent yet run their most successful variants off of that, saving them for the 4th quarter when they matter. That implies that coaching, or at least good coordinator playcalling is at work, and matters. So yeah, most coaches around the league are professionals, but not geniuses. I guess i put Eberflus into that category. So he wont harm us, but will he give us an active edge in winning? I dont think so in the same way I feel like Waldron will. Defensive playcalling is also a lot less complicated than offensive playcalling. So if youre gonna have a mad genius head coach, they probably will be offensive minded. Belichick was a defensive coordinator, but i think he was also plenty offensive minded. Also, if youre gonna lose coordinators, better to have offensive continuity too. But we are here and I am glad to see Eberflus growing. I think there is enough on this staff to put together good football gameplans and strategies, but I wonder if Eberflus has that thing? And to be fair its not like you can go out and get a 50 year old Andy Reed either. So Eberflus may be a good choice out of the options there are out there. (cough Harbaugh lol)

all good stuff. Im just giving credit where it is due that Eberflus looks more dialed in this year finally. Im sure youre right that it is because of many reasons including roster confidence, but he has also grown personally I believe.

Heres a season by season chart for offensive and defensive EPA. https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-epa-tiers/ Did you find one that does five years at the same time?

I think I have been the most vocal critic of Matt Eberflus on this board? Probably so. And I have some observations to make about the last month or two. My two main criticisms of him have been that he has made stupid strategic game decisions, and that he seemed to lack an alpha leadership quality, at least where I was able to see him on TV, in interviews etc. I can't say much about the first one, since we aren't playing games, but I'm hopeful that any of that gets put in check by more assertive coordinators keeping him from going too safe. A better roster should also make him more comfortable to take risks. And perhaps coordinators will dial him back from going too far the other way too. I'm not that concerned about it, and if I see more of it in games, then Ill get back to it then. Hopefully he has learned too. But the other part, his body language, is why I'm writing this. I'm looking forward to seeing him on hard knocks and in press conferences etc this year. But I did already see him greeting new players when they reported, and in the draft room where he still seemed small to me. He felt like the uncomfortable kid at the dance in the draft room. I like his new look, but he seemed almost shy or something somehow. But I said in an earlier post, that maybe he just isn't that comfortable in settings where his authoritative role isnt that defined, and where he isnt sure of what to do in every step like he is on the practice field. So all this setup and background to say, I am seeing a serious difference in him in practice footage and especially in the press conference today. He seemed more dialed in, less goofy than last year, kind of angry in a good way. He was leaning forward toward the press, not shifting his weight, like he was in a fight for his life, and on the cusp of losing, but then some friends showed up and had his back. Newly confident, but still taking it very seriously. I'm guessing that he loved being a head coach the last couple years, almost like it was fun, or he was a tourist, but this year he now knows it can all go away forever in just one more bad season. So he seems dialed in. And he also seems like in this fight, he knows he has a roster now and he might well be able to kick this thing in the ass and take it all the way to a Super Bowl in the next few years. He feels intense and concerned. Finally. It's really great to see. If it continues, and the coaching mistakes go away, then Poles did yet another great job seeing past the obvious. To my eye, this would be as crazy as when they drafted Dexter to be a 3T instead of a NT, with the big doughy slow get off. But Poles saw whet he could become. And then Dexter shows up ripped and fast this year. Maybe that's Eberflus too now. We may someday need a bronze statue of Ryan Poles outside Soldier Field. So from his biggest critic here, I see something changing in Eberflus, and it's great to see.

well it IS a good thing we drafted a punter in any case! LOL I would say that you showed with KC there, that those stats, in a vacuum, don't really tell the story. KC won 11 games, and lost 6, but the won the right games, and they know how to win as a team. They know when they need points, and they know how to score when they need to - that elusive trait that all the winners have. Put the ball in their hands down 6 with 2 minutes left, and you figure they are going to score and win. This is also where stats for Fields didn't tell the full story too, for example. I think this is going to come down to what Caleb Williams becomes in the NFL, and how his supporting cast can make that more likely. And for that reason and our new additions, I cant take much from last years stats except to say that if we were already in the middle of the pack then, i expect us to be pretty high up there by the end of the season. At least if you only count the last 8 games, for example. I cant wait to see where this roster starts, and how they grow from there!

I totally understand why Caleb didnt want an agent - the rookie deal is basically set so nothing to negotiate. But then to let your team try to reinvent the entire league is really wrong. Not only is it a wrong idea, but to bring it from non agents is ridiculous. I am glad that Caleb said the circus could continue right up to the last minute but no further and not miss a day. Thats fine. But if hed held out even a few days on this crap that would have been a really bad sign. But he didnt, and hes in camp. Cool. Lets go!

LOL its killing all of us! For the longest time the offseason was the best part of the year for us. We would get a new player or two and hope that we would field a competitive team. The best we did in a while was that Urlacher / Grossman team, and they werent really a great team. We lucked into the superbowl, and got taught a lesson in our second class status by Payton Manning, who we had no chance of beating even after Hester gave us a free 7 point advantage. Now, finally, we have a roster. I dont know if it will be this year, but it could be - but soon this group of names is going to be among the best teams in the NFL. All this to say, the regular season will finally be the best part of the year for our time, and I cant wait either. Lets go!

lol good problem to have

OK, here's some BS. Caleb's team, who are not NFL agents, trying to be creative and do something(s) that had never been done before, make a name for themselves, and start a player repping business, tried several creative strategies for laundering money tax free in addition to trying to vacate the franchise tag. Poles showed them that Williams might be a #1 pick, but he is the MFing GM of the Chicago Bears and no franchise protection was offered. In addition Poles played it VERY smart to ask the league about the other ideas, which the league immediately shot down. So Poles isn't the bad guy, the league is. Well played sir. But most of all, hit the road lawyer type agent wannabes. The answer is no, and Caleb will sign anyway. And he did. Someday he may have us over a barrel and insist on big money and voidable years, franchise tag protections and the like, but he has to win some big games first, and at least one superbowl to earn the franchise protection clout. If he's smart, he will take the Brady path and leave money on the table for players around him. But who can say. What I can say is Ryan Poles has giant brass balls, and Caleb's team went to bed without supper. As they should for this nonsense. As for Caleb, he took it right up to the last minute but no further. I can respect his competitiveness. Had he missed even a day of rookie practice, then he'd have crossed the line too, but he didn't. Let's hope he is similarly greedy and pushy on the field against the Packers. https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/bears-news/caleb-williams-team-made-oddball-out-of-the-box-requests-for-his-rookie-contract-report/577714/

it's an embarrassment of riches. One WR may get 1,000 because of how coverages end up etc, but it would come at the expense of the others, as you guys have mentioned, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Barring a WR injury, I think Caleb's stats look better than any of the WRs on paper, but if you look at how they get each other open, it should be amazing. Too bad there is no assist stat for complementary routes. With such problems for defenses to cover, we might be really formidable this year in terms of points, even as Caleb is still learning. I dont want to drink too much kool aid, it is still the first season for a lot of them and Waldron, but if things go right, I wouldnt put a ceiling on this team. The superbowl window may not be wide open, but it's certainly cracked and letting some air in. And if C and DE2 work out, then this roster will be the one to win a superbowl, in whatever year in the next 3.

lets go!

so weird. and I don't think players have the right to put in any language about franchise tagging anyway? Otherwise wouldnt someone else have already done this? EDIT - so apparently it is possible. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/07/caleb-williams-aimed-to-secure-no-franchise-tag-clause-in-bears-rookie-deal

absolutely the right way to play it, and having the training staff in place was an additional wrinkle I hadnt considered - good one. I also worry about Davis, and wonder about Bates at G. I feel like that flexibility was always part of the plan, even if replacing Davis wasnt explicitly the first option, or never happens. Poles is stocking the room with talent, and hopefully they get the best 5 out there.

Oh I sure hope so. I always knew what Calebs position would be regarding his rookie contract, but i cant make any predictions about his second deal; when that will come, and how much he will ask for etc. But there is a definite wisdom in leaving some money for players to catch the balls you throw, and championships mean more endorsements, and at some point when youre rich beyond measure, championships should mean more. I hope Caleb sees it that way when the time comes if he proves to be the QB we think he can be! I hope he takes the Brady route and not the Rodgers route!

totally agree with all of this. Poles seems to be drafting high character guys, and he doesnt seem to have to be sacrificing anything in the talent department to do it, othert than maybe moving on past Jalen Carter. And with the way Wright played last year, it makes the point moot, because Wright is a monster. I feel like Poles was actually trained under people and a system that understands how to do this, as opposed to some guy playing fantasy football and trying to put together a winner for each year with not enough to do it. There seems to be a PLAN, and all the pieces are falling into place too. Good time to be a Bears fan.

yeah I cant wait to watch it! I think the cameras arrived at Halas Hall today, possibly yesterday, so this all makes sense. I'm gonna be very interested to watch Eberflus' chemistry with the players. He sometimes feels to me like he is nervous, antsy or insecure, but thats in the social settings. It's possible that once the relationship turns to Xs and Os and specifically football things where his knowledge, experience and role is clear that he is more comfortable or alpha. Maybe kind of like the player who is soft spoken and sweet in interviews and turns into a bloodthirsty monster only on the field. I've hoped to see Eberflus more in his professional role, because the behind the scenes stuff made me mistrust his leadership, but when hes ont he practice field and yelling, I might see the side of him Ive been looking for that would make Poles' choice in him make more sense to me. It cant just be calling cover 3, anyone can do that, so Im hoping to see the side of him that i just havent had enough chance to see to bring me around.

probably right, but i think when he was healthy Connor Williams was so much better than these two that if you think he's coming back to form, and the numbers work (to your point) then we would love to sign him. I just dont know when that would be, you dont want to pay big on a hope that he recovers.

I guess they were waiting for the cameras, probably asked to by the league. Both are signed. And Caleb didnt try to change the league after all. That was just narrative from before the draft because he didnt have a PR person countering anything so the stories went wild - probably from teams in the top 5 hoping to shake him loose. Anyway the nonsense is over. We have successfully navigated cutting Fields and drafting and signing Caleb. Hopefully now the business of winning comes front and center. And speaking of centers and fronts, I wouldnt be shocked to see us sign Connor WIlliams, another DE or both.

Williams just signed too - so it was for the cameras. Good

I had sort of thought they might sign together for the cameras. It doesnt really mean anything until Saturday, so they still have some time, and I still believe this is not going to be an issue, but if we get past Saturday and he is still not signed, I'll worry then.