BearFan PHX

1) makes total sense. 2) I think you're taking into account the discounted value of a future pick, and the lack of depth in this draft? Makes sense to me. I think you're also saying that you could see us trade back the #9 pick down maybe 5ish slots to still target a starter in the top 18, and then if we do that, trading down with the extra pick we got to convert it to 2025 draft capital? That makes sense. You get another player this year and next year. 3) agree, except a possible 3rd round center or special teamer I think this is zeroed in on where we are. You might add a couple names to your 1 scenario though, maybe a different OT than Alt (Fashanu or Fuaga? Imagine Fuaga as a run blocking guard too! Maybe Jenkins' replacement?), maybe a different DE than Turner who doesnt really fit our system that well? He's more of an OLB Edge? Maybe Verse or Latu? If we haver any of those extra guys super highly rated over the others, we might take them at 9, but if we have them in tiers, then a trade back seems likely.

yup

it might be for special teams, since the kickoff rule has changed they may feel they need a different type of athlete in some role? Not a high pick, but maybe the 4th rounder? Just a guess.

Ok well I guess that went over my head. And yes, I was very clear that I didn't know which QBs I preferred, no matter who was saying what about them in the press, until I watched the tape. I took about a week to do that, not a day, I watched several games, watching each play 3 or 4 times to be sure what the design of the play was, and then what Caleb did. I saw good, bad, and ugly, but mostly good, and evidence of him doing all the different skills a great QB needs, from making reads in tempo to heroball. Again, its not some special talent I have, anyone could watch the film the same way i did, and come to the same conclusion, and it seems over time, most have. So its not about me, its just Williams is great on tape. What I came away with was that he is a "generational" prospect. That was a media word, I didnt coin it. He was a rare prospect that looks like he has what it takes to be amazing in the NFL. I've never said that he would be at his peak on day one - that'd be ridiculous. And I never said he was a "generational" NFL QB. Not yet. He hasnt played a down in the league. Usually I said that he had a better LIKELIHOOD to be great. I think i put it at around 80% hit rate to be "elite" (meaning winning playoff games, definition from an earlier article we were all discussing, and percentages they studied). But he certainly is a generational prospect, and we should all hope that he will fulfill his potential and become a generational NFL QB, or at least an elite one. I think I've said a multiple super bowl winner at times too, but I never said in year 1. Is it possible in year 1? It actually is, but I wouldnt necessarily bet on it. But I think it's coming in time. But you haven't caught me in any inconsistency. I know exactly what I've been saying, and really only someone trying to "gotcha" me would be hearing me that way. I've been pretty clear. But anyway I'm not getting sucked back into this personal crap. Williams is awesome, we are lucky to have him, and I am looking for flashes or greatness and development in year 1. Of course progress wont be linear, it never is. His worst game could be week 3 or week 6 or something. But if he is who we think he's gonna be, we should see evidence of it immediately, and I also expect some setbacks and growing pains before he can be consistently great. Also setbacks could include an early game with multiple interceptions. Id be more comfortable with a 4 interception game 3 than turnovers spread out over games. I suspect the NFL defenses are going to have to humble Caleb a bit for him to learn how good he has to be if he wants to keep making himself look great. thats where his ego becomes a strength - first he thinks hes NFL better than he is, throws some picks, gets mad, and then compulsively fine tunes his game so he can complete those balls and win at this level - thats what I think its going to look like. He is going to want to be great, not just good, and if that means overaggressive at first, thats OK, as long as he learns how to dominate at this level at the end of the process. If we see that in 2024, we should feel comfortable that we have our guy at QB going into the future.

Youre just looking to fight. I was saying that I acknowledge that you have a right to your opinions. Sheesh dude. Frickin relax.

well said. I agree with all of that.

exactly

this isnt about lessening expectations to cover my ass, its just about the truth of rookies coming into the NFL. Youve been watching football for a long time, do you ever remember a rookie QB not going thru some adversity? Also to your being mad about Fields, you keep bringing him into the conversation about Williams, and writing blah over ten times does seem a little emotional? You seem to be angrily throwing the idea that he is a generational prospect around, and then saying if he isnt perfect then that means we should have built around Fields instead. So thats cool thats what you think, but in the same breath to pretend it isnt is silly. The tone of your post is surely emotional, capital letters, blah multiple times, saying "sorry" sarcastically, and expecting perfection are all strong signals that read angry. You start off saying i dont read, but I do. Thats what i just read. Caleb should show great flashes of greatness, and he will make some rookie mistakes. Thats about the most obvious non controversial statement I can imagine. if it makes you upset, I dont know what to tell you. All rookies have a learning curve. Theres never been one that didnt. But at the same time, we should see evidence that he is better than most pretty quickly. It just wont be as consistent as it is in year 2 etc. Again, not controversial at all. But i also think Justin is not going to be great in Pittsburgh either. I think he sucks, and the whole league agreed, and youre just holding on to something thats also clouding your view on how youre going to treat Williams. But you can fan however you like.

So we disagree about Fields. I don't think Fields would be able to read defenses no matter how much (realistic) protection he received. We don't have to agree on that. As far as generational, Williams is a generational prospect, which is different than being a generational NFL QB. It means he has the best chance to become a generational NFL QB, but right now he is nothing in the NFL, like all rookies. The question isn't so much about how he hits the ground as who he will be in year two. We should see flashes that show us who he will be, and we will also likely see hard lessons learned when he tries to fit a ball into a window that closes too fast in the NFL, or gets baited by superior defensive backs until he learns what exactly is and isn't open in the NFL. That's expected, and has been true for every great NFL QB in history. To expect Caleb Williams to be immediately great would be to expect more from him than any other great QB in NFL history. What I'm saying here is that the acceptable form of "not yet great" is flashes of greatness, interspersed with some mistakes. We will know we are in trouble if he doesn't show those flashes. You may still be mad about Fields, but putting impossible expectations on Williams, that even the best all time QBs didn't achieve out of the gate isn't going to accurately predict his value to the team in the long run. Expect to see a great rookie. That's a fair threshold for Caleb.

Nah, Manning came into a team with nothing, Luck's team was already stocked. Caleb should be at least decent in year one. I think what you hope for are flashes of greatness, and if they are inconsistent, or come with rookie interception mistakes, thats OK. What you dont want to see is consistent mushy oatmeal.

yup - that old story goes "and #3 is the guy that stops that guy from hitting your QB" lol

well yes and no. Youre not wrong about the casual fan, but if you're an informed fan, and I think all of us here are that, then you operate in the realm of reality, and understand that player development is a huge part of NFL success. I dunno if they will be .500 by the middle of the season, but if you throw out the first four games, they should likely be at least .500 after that, and making a run at the playoffs. I do think the Bears are constructed to start winning now. I dont think Eberflus is really on the hot seat as far as wins are concerned this year. If we go 8-9 I think it will be ok depending on how that looked. But for all this prediction of rookie growing pains, there is nothing that says Williams cant come in and be like CJ Stroud was this past year either. I wont be surprised at early inconsistencies, but I wont put a ceiling on this team either. Williams will be a different QB in December too, so theres no saying what could happen then if they get to the playoffs. My prediction is 9-8 or 10-7 and a playoff appearance, with a 50/50 shot of winning a playoff game.

great draft. I just posted something similar to your rational here on the "Bears on the clock" thread. I do think this draft falls off the table around the 18th player, so coming down a bit from #9 to grab a DE makes a lot of sense. I had been kind of thinking that WR would be the pick at #9, especially, if Nabers or Harrison drop (not likely!) and then i thought that building up Caleb is important, so an OT might be the pick, but maybe it is as simple as simply looking at the two positions Poles hasn't upgraded yet: Quarterback and Defensive line. We have needs at DE and DT so I dunno where that would go, or if any of the defensive linemen this year are really all that good, but generically, assuming all player ratings are equal to their draft position (for the math here, obviously never true) a defensive lineman wouldn't surprise me. In order of importance, the most important position on the field is the QB, and so the second most important position is the guy that knocks the QB down.

Waddle and Silvy talking today about something that I'd read before, but "bears" repeating. A few things come into play with this draft. First is that apparently there is an unusual amount of good players electing to stay one more year in college due to the NIL money, resulting in a draft with the fewest underclassmen in memory. If this is a new but ongoing trend then everything will be back to normal next year and going forward as players stay an extra year each year, then this one draft has a deficit, kind of like a leap year. The second thing is that Poles said that if they don't trade back this year, they would still have made 25 picks in three years, which averages out to 8+ a year, so the roster is good in terms of age progression if we dont trade back. In effect, because of the talent deficit, and needs/availability of some free agents, we basically drafted Sweat with the 2nd round pick, Bates with the 5th round pick, and having traded away the 6th and 7th rounder as well. It feels like there is a solid justification for picking a blue chipper with that 9th overall pick, without feeling pressure to trade down to get more players. Now that said, there is every reason to trade the #9 pick down a few slots, if the player youre targeting is likely to still be there. If, for example, the top three WRs go, and the next guy on your list projects to go 15th, you might take him at #13 instead of #9, and if that nets you another 3rd rounder, then that's great. But the strategy would be making that trade to avoid overpaying for that blue chipper, not having to trade down because you need that 3rd round pick. This all feels very professional, and well planned out, including having extra picks next year. Either we are getting really lucky, or we finally have a great GM in the building, or both.

no, it often takes a minute for any quarterback to get used to the new speed of the NFL game, and then learn to do what they can already do but at the new tempo. Maybe our plan is to start him right away, but if it is, its OK if he takes a minute to get used to the new speed with these reps. It has nothing to do with how good he will or wont be in December. You were giving Fields more benefit of the doubt right up to the end of this third season, so I think you can spare a little grace for a rookie. or dont, I dont care. It's where he ends up that matters, not how he starts. What you hope to see early are flashes, proof of concept. Consistency and wins sometimes come later.

I think it's going to have to be Waldron, Joseph and Thomas Brown to teach Caleb. I suspect Brown is the secret weapon, who can play the role a vet QB might have in addition to the OC and QB coach?

Yeah I'm not crapping on Penix - I would rather have him than Daniels or Maye if that was the choice. Im just saying there are historical reasons why his value should be lower. But I cant say that he wont continue to grow in the NFL. Im just glad it's not a bet I have to make!

I think youre right. Bagent is in case of injury.

Thats how I see it too. Penix is a stud, but hes older, so maybe his future ceiling is lower, having already grown, and i think he has a bunch of injuries, but the ball sure does come off of his hand hot. Also the three you mentioned are the ones who read the field the best - the do the best "quarterbacking"

good one - I like Fiske if he is available somewhere after the first two picks we make.

If there is that much interest in Nix and Penix, then i hope they go before 9 so even more players fall to us or we are able to trade down a bit to get the same players. Very cool.

As a vet to be around Caleb, cool, but i sure hope we keep Bagent, i thought he had real promise too.

Thanks for answering adam, I'm not sure I agree, but I'll need to see this in action to see what the real word effects are. I suspect a lot of innovation, and hopefully that is to our advantage.

I'm so new to this rule, I must be missing something. Why is muffing less of a problem now? Isn't it still a fumble?

Good article, thanks.