BearFan PHX

serious question, was Johnson wrong to draft Gibbs at #12 in 2023?

you gotta look at the guy tho - Banks Jr, sure. Some like Cambpell, i dont, but I could get that. But Membou? Hes a RT who will probably play guard and is short for each.

At impact positions, arbitrary projections from NFL.com Mock draft: We are obviously not picking a QB at 10 At Edge, The big name ends are not as heavy as Allen likes. Abdul Carter (proj 4th) is 250 pounds Ezeiruaku (proj 15th) is 248 pounds Williams (proj 23rd) is 260 pounds Tuimoloau (proj 29th) is 265 pounds compare to Odeyingbo at 286 pounds These are all lighter faster guys, and so I think you can rule them out at 10. LT (or OL) would make sense, but... Campbell has real flaws to me (plays too high, gets beat inside too much AND not wide enough when protecting outside, where shorter arms dont help) Seriously, thats the trifecta: too high, vulnerable to the outside, vulnerable to the inside. no way to me Banks could be the pick. but admit it: you're not jumping up and down about it. The rest: Booker (proj 17th) is a guard, I dunno if we're spending the 10th pick on any guard, and we just paid three interior players big money. talent in the pipeline is good, but to take Booker at 10 and then have him sit feels like a weird move. Still he is a good player, so he can go on the also ran list. Membou (proj 19th) Plays RT, but probably should be a Guard. Good technique, but undersized AND lacks killer instinct. Surely not a LT, and maybe not even a RT. I cant see him at 10. If I was gonna take a guard, it'd be Booker before Membou Simmons (proj 20th) at least he is an actual LT. He is a good physical specimen, but he makes a lot of mental errors, especially in reacting stunts. Plus he's coming off an injury. He might grow to become a good OL, but he has a way to go AND hes coming off an injury. I cant see him at 10 at all Savaiinaea (proj 28) is a project at guard. not even a mid first round pick. Conerly (proj 32) needs to add strength. He is a developmental player with good upside after a year in the weight room. We know the offensive skill players are WR Travis Hunter will be long gone before we pick HB Ashton Jeanty (proj 6) TE Warren (proj 9) Jeremy Shockey comp, big, tough rumbling, may not be able to beat man coverages in the NFL. Gets manhandled more than you want for a physical type with no real vertical threat. Honestly Kmet is better at this. I dont think he is a Johnson fit TE Loveland (proj 16) More of a power forward giant receiver than a pure bruiser. 6' 6" 248 makes him a monster in the slot, not unlike Sam Laporta did for Johnson in Detroit. I think this is the kind of mismatch player that Johnson covets. If you cover him with a LB, he's open, if you use a DB, he will use his height and strength, or you run the ball. WR McMillan (proj 12th) big target, can work the middle and provide a similar benefit as Loveland, but he has the speed to challenge deep too, so if Johnson wants to make his LaPorta a tall slot receiver instead of a TE, McMillian could fit the bill. Hes got great hands - a possession receiver at 6' 5" runs a 4.5 40, wins contested catches so more of a physical threat We have no need at LB and no MLB superstars are available. At S, there is only Malakai Starks (proj 22) to consider. He's a hard hitter, great against the run. Can play S or Nickel. Gets caught on breaks in man coverage sometimes. Maybe a replacement for Brisker. A great toy for Allen? honorable mention to Nick Emmanwori (proj 55) - another big physical safety who has some zone coverage issues but has tremendous size and speed to match up with TEs, and come down into the box against the run I will leave CBs and DTs unexplored, because I havent really done any work on them yet. So first round pick players I would be happy to see in a Bears uniform are: OT Kelvin Banks Jr OG Tyler Booker HB Ashton Jeanty TE Colston Loveland WR Tetairoa McMillan S Malakai Starks S Nick Emmanwori (I have a first round grade on him, if we get him in the 2nd round, Ill be thrilled) WR Travis Hunter (and CBs and DTs I havent scouted yet) I think Banks Jr, Jeanty, Loveland or McMillan are most likely at #10 if we dont trade down and will be the pick unless a CB or DT I havent scouted yet makes the grade. Don't sleep on Loveland or McMillan! They are auditioning for very similar roles, and we need that kind of player.

Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted at #12 in 2023... He's a top talent, but not used as a load back. I think that NFL defenses switch to 2 high safeties is changing the calculus on RBs. We're not reading more about it because the writers havent caught on to it as a narrative yet, but there is definitely a new correlation between success and the running game this past year. Now that said, again, Im not at all saying we need to draft Jeanty. I dont know enough to project who he will be in the NFL. But if hes gonna be great, then #10 isnt that much higher than #12? It all comes down to Jeanty's evaluation. Or any running back or player.

I dont have a clip, but i do think someone asked Johnson about Swift, and he gave a lukewarm generic answer, so I think youre on the right track.

Since it would help us so much on the cap, and if we are drafting a RB too, maybe we could trade him cheap? That was why I thought of packaging him in a trade down - which would be a pretty unique scenario for sure.

for sure, and with the way Swift's contract is, even if Johnson already knows he wants to move away from him, we might have to wait for next year to do it. But that doesnt mean we won't draft his replacement this year in the first few rounds. Edit: If I am reading OTC right, while the cap hit is a lot of cutting him, trading him would be quite a savings. Interesting. CUT = 500k of cap space opened up, and leaves 8M of dead cap TRADE = 6.6M cap opened up and only 2.6M dead cap space Who knew? Deandre Swift is trade bait! Here's a wild idea: trade Deandre Swift and the 10th pick overall for a trade DOWN to get a lower first, a high to mid second, high to mid third and maybe something else? Who needs a RB? https://overthecap.com/player/dandre-swift/8775

this is a logically sound argument. A better OL generically makes QBs and RBs better generically. The questions are the pros and cons of players who are better or worse than average in specific traits. I think Swift has a vision problem. he doesnt read holes well. I think Jeanty has incredible balance to take a hit and stay on his feet. When you plug in an above average player, it takes advantage of what the OL gives him, and when you plug in someone with issues, it can squander what the OL gives him? I would be THRILLED to have Jeanty on our team. But the real question is who else is available at 10, and whether they are a better choice. So while I think Jeanty would be a huge upgrade over Swift, Im not convinced that an OT wouldnt be a bigger upgrade over Jones for example. So Im not saying to draft Jeanty, but I AM saying I dont like Swift that much. Also, generically, people believe that HBs are a less important position than they were in the 90s. And this is generally true. You surely dont want to spend a big part of your cap on one. But here are three counter arguments for drafting a back high: 1) Rookie contracts dont eat up the cap, so it's just draft capital youre spending 2) Defenses are recently now playing more two high safety looks to beat the modern passing game, and this increases the opportunities for HBs to impact the game 3) Generic arguments about position overlook those handful of game changers that can come at any position. For example, no one thinks to draft a safety in the top ten, but youd think twice if it was Troy Palomalu or Ed Reed. Now none of this is to say that I am sure that Jeanty is LaDanian Tomlinson. In not. Im just saying each person has to make that determination on the player himself, and not just on the generic valuation of the position. And same with OL. If all the players in the draft this year were of equal talent, my first pick would be OT or DL. But theyre not, and so we have to look at the players. Maybe Jeanty is the right choice. Maybe the TE? Maybe OL! But the idea that HB isnt that important, or that there are more decent HBs later in the draft shouldnt ignore whatever someones valuation on Jeanty is. And neither should the generic argument that our OL is better, so it matters less. But all that said, if someones argument is that Jeanty just isnt that good, then that's totally legit. Thats where the decision should be made in my opinion.

For sure! I think Banks is probably the best OT in the draft.

I went with the TE, but i could easily have gone with Jeanty if I had two votes. If Kelvin Banks Jr had been on the list, Id have picked him first though. EDIT - after more research, I had TE Warren's type confused with Colston Loveland, so now I wish I'd taken McMillan or Jeanty.

out of curiosity, what were Braxton Jones' sack numbers? Id ask about Amagadge too, but in my mind he gets a fresh start since he came right from injury to being thrown into NFL games without any ramp up. That doesnt mean i expect him to be better (or not!) - Ill just grade him "unknown"

thats an interesting way to look at it. I generally feel like you need even more from a top ten pick, especially since if all goes to plan, we wont have another one for a while. But there is a logic to what youre saying too. Upgrade a premium position, even if the player is never a superstar. Solid and affordable is good.

for sure. I was just answering the starter question. You can never have too many pass rushers as the Eagles have proven LT is still a starter need i think?

I'm not sure we really have a starter at LT or SS, and I bet we will have new starters at RB and WR3 before this is all over too. Maybe a CB too as a wildcard, although less likely.

fun! I think so too. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see us grab a WR in the first 3 rounds. TE too, or at least one of the two. --- I think this guy can do some things for us in the slot too.

ah ok, i was confused! Im not sure that pro bowl 8 year player is going to be available at pick 10. I would be happy with Banks though, i think he can help us win, and he could possibly still be our LT 8 years from now...

Im confused? I said Kelvin Banks Jr as LT?

I can make a case for Kelvin Banks Jr as a LT. I cant make the case that there isn't an edge rusher we should take instead, because I havent seen enough film this year, but Ive seen some on Banks, and he could be very good for us at LT. I definitely prefer him over Will Campbell. Even arm length notwithstanding, Campbell plays too high for my taste. AZ54 showed me some good film on that, and then the subsequent film Ive seen confirms it to my eye. I dont like Campbell at T OR G. And it's funny, because about a month ago, I saw a highlight film of Campbell and came on here and said he was a beast. Its so funny how a highlight film can make you feel one way, and then actually watching full games against quality opponents tells you a completely different story.

agree with all these - maybe a better pass catching weapon at TE than Kmet too? I think if you cut (or trade) him, you gain $10M in salary cap, so if you found someone better at the same price you could afford it. Don't know who that would be though. Maybe another trade? Not predicting it this year, but i think it is on the table.

Johnson will do whatever utilizes his roster best. Hes already said he isnt going to do a repeat of the Lions playbook here. If we KNEW Jeanty would be LaDanian Tomlinson, we'd take him at #10 with a smile on our face. Now Im not saying he IS, but what matters is what Johnson thinks. You may well be right, but "Jeanty should not be considered" is a pretty bold and definitive statement, and none of us have the inside info to know that. Like I said, you may well prove out to be 100% right, and I agree that in general, taking a back that high is considered a mistake. So Im definitely not saying youre wrong. But I dont know how you can know that so definitively. Also, food for discussion: Backs went out of fashion as teams played one high safety looks. The running game of the 90s wouldnt work against these modern defenses. But something interesting has happened. The passing game opened up with teams like the Rams and Chiefs exploiting modern routes and concepts, and then Fangio showed the league that two high safeties could counter that. Suddenly, we are seeing more two high (or more) looks; cover 2, man under 2, cover 3, cover 4 etc. So maybe part of what Johnson and the Eagles proved last year is that there is a place for a real running game again, as those safeties have moved back? The Eagles also countered the Chiefs with a four man shell, and a fierce pass rush. Even so, I think we all agree that paying a RB big money is hard to justify, but taking them with the 10th pick and paying a rookie deal isn't that rich, *IF* you think they will be one of those rare difference makers. Again, I cant say if Jeanty is or isnt that, but if Johnson thinks so, they wont hesitate to take him over OL depth for 2 years from now. I still personally think we're taking a LT with #10, but Jeanty and that TE are definitely options, depending on what Johnson thinks about their ability.

right. he never had a chance to learn anything before they threw him to the fire last year. He went from injured/not practicing to his first NFL games. That said, I wouldnt be shocked if we took a LT in the first couple of rounds, maybe even a guy like Kelvin Banks Jr at #10

agree, either a cheaper free agent, and/or at least one WR in the first three rounds

or scare someone into a trade up. I love draft intrigue

I hear Dalman chose us over more lucrative offers. Looks like we are becoming a destination. Hopefully the right WR feels the same way.

Exactly. We put together a competitive roster, but it has too many older free agents. A great sustainable team develops through the draft, and reaching for positions is the best way to minimize your draft capital, so being flexible is key. Now we have a good roster, and Caleb's rookie deal gives us the money to do it. The next phase will be to replace those players with best player available over the next few years of the draft, and then we will be a real sustainable franchise. Hopefully, when the time comes, Caleb emulates his hero Tom Brady and leaves some money on the table so he has someone to throw the ball to. Poles knows this, and now that we have a real coaching staff who can help with player evaluations, the future looks bright.