BearFan PHX

OK, So if we take Caleb with pick #1, and we don't trade down, which of these players would you take with #9 if they were all available and a trade down wasn't an option? I'm not saying they'll all be available in reality, but it's just an exercise in ranking. Also, if you choose Odunze, then please make a second pick if he is not available from this list at #9? Or if you prefer, make a ranked list of several, as long as you rank them. Jared Verse DE Laiatu Latu DE Byron Murphy DT Johnny Newton DT Rome Odunze WR Brian Thomas Jr WR Brock Bowers TE Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Troy Fautanu OT (or blue chip run blocking OG) Jackson Powers-Johnson OC I also think a list like this makes me feel like trading down as low as pick #18 is a likely scenario, but if these were the guys and you had to pick one at #9 who would it be? If I HAD top pick one of these guys at #9, I guess Odunze would be the pick. But if he isn't available I kind of like all these guys, which is why I am asking the question. The only ones I might avoid are Latu if the medicals are iffy, and Im not sure yet about Fashanu, I need to see more film. Any of the others would definitely add something to our team. Who do you think stands out?

I cant really argue that - he seems foggy to me right now, and thats surely not a good sign, but I cant swear he wont learn in the NFL.

Id settle for 3500 yards if his completion percentage is above 57% ish I know he is going to throw interceptions until he learns the NFL speed and windows, but we should see a lot of flashes of greatness that tell us we got the right guy.

I tend to agree with your list. I dont really care about historical odds, because they dont take into account the style of the player or the skill set, but i still end up pretty much where you are. Williams shows all the skills needed for NFL success. Daniels has great physical tools, but I havent seen him really do the job of "quarterbacking" maybe he will learn in the NFL - I cant say he wont - but he hasnt shown that yet. Maye looks good reading defenses but has accuracy issues, and seems to lack that leadership thing. I cant say he wont be great, but it might take him a year or two to develop and work on footwork. McCarthy has the mind for it, the skills of "quarterbacking" but he didnt throw as much at Michigan as the others did, and when he did the defenses were looking for run. Maybe he will be great in the NFL, I wouldnt be surprised, but its not a "sure thing" to me. I do figure he will be at least decent. He has a high floor.

and my point is that when a QB looks good without help, that makes them a lot easier to project into the NFL. I think a lot of scouts look at the physical tools - there is a certain institutional arrogance in the NFL that if you get an athlete you can coach him into a football player. Other scouts, and fans like me, want to see football traits that translate to the next level. I think the next couple of years will prove me right on Daniels, and we can talk about my prediction then, but my main point here was that Williams' stats and tape comes without help, and forces him to employ the full range of tools a QB needs to succeed. Others, blessed with college teams stocked with talent, don't have to go deep into that toolbox to succeed, so it makes it harder to predict if they are going to be able to do those things in the NFL. I cant say they wont be able to do it, but i prefer someone who shows they already can?

Thank you! Yeah. I think he is gonna be insanely competitive. I predict somewhere in his first 6 games a 3 or 4 interception game as his ego tempts him to thread the needle too tightly. But i also think that will just make him work harder until he can dominate. I dont see him as the kind the folds. I dont think the crying happens while there is still game time to play. Exhausted after giving it all and losing is different than pouting or quitting. I think hes gonna be a SOB, and hes gonna be OUR SOB.

Fair point. I think he's just waiting until it's official. I also think the league has asked them not to announce if it IS a done deal so the possible drama of the draft broadcast isn't affected. I mean, it's dumb, but it is what it is. To your point though, i have no doubt that if another team took him, he wouldn't be crying that it wasn't the Bears. I think he just wants to get in the league and kick ass. For whoever. Just like I'm sure Justin isn't missing Chicago, and is thinking about how he can excel in Pittsburgh. And it seems like the situation here for Williams is about as good as you could ever expect for a first pick rookie, so I'll bet he is enthused. When he is drafted I expect he will say the right things about Butkis and Halas and Payton and Deep Dish Pizza LOL But you're probably right at the core of it, he wants to win for himself. And he must know that means leading a team, so it'll end up the same either way?

I'm not sure what exactly Williams' intangibles really are, too. I have seen all the press about WIlliams being gay or trans or whatever, and I think it is possible he is, and it is possible he is trolling people for saying that, wearing the pink nails and phone, waving his hand in an effeminate manner. I think he might just well be an overcompetitive jerk putting his middle finger up to those calling him that. It reminds me of Jim McMahon wearing his headbands taking ont he league commissioner. I think it is clear Caleb is never going to be a humble quiet teammate. He is not going to have options as a loveable and loyal backup if things go south. he is an in your face competitor, who has so far accomplished nothing in the NFL, but comes in postured to be an arrogant and fiery champion. If he falls he will fall hard in public opinion, but if he succeeds, he seems to have the heart of a real champion. We may remember when we had McMahon, Tomczak and a rookie Harbaugh on our team. Tomczak was licking McMahons feet in the press, while Harbaugh said "Im here to compete to be the starter" and of course his competitive spirit is now legendary, having won championships coaching at every level, one of the best and top coaches of all time by the numbers. We might also remember later when McMahon was a Packer, Tomczak signalling the plays over to him so the GB defense could destroy Harbaugh during a preseason game. So of the three, Id take the personality of McMahon or Harbaugh as a team leader, and never a snitchy whiny loser like Tomczak. I think of Jordan, Brady, Muhammad Ali, Deion Sanders, Mike Tyson, Kobe Bryant and others as a blueprint for this kind of leader. Of course there are other successful kinds too, Montana comes to mind. But humility is not necessarily a virtue for a leader. And on a team with Eberflus as head coach, I dont mind at all if that fire comes from our QB. I wont mind if he is sometimes insubordinate, as long as his gambits work. I think of that MNF football game in the early part of the 1985 season against the Vikings, where McMahon had been sick and in the hospital, but got out in time to play, standing next to Ditka on the sidelines with his helmet on, begging to play, while Ditka fumed and told him he was too sick to play, and the Vikings built a three score lead on us. Ditka lost his cool, and put McMahon in angrily. The first play was a screen pass to Walter. Gault runs a go route on that left side to clear out the defense for Wlater to work underneath. There are no WR options on this play. The ball goes to Walter or no one. McMahon, stepped back and threw an 80 yard bomb for a touch down to Gault who was surprised to see the ball. Even he didnt know McMahon would do this. That moment was the spark that made the 85 Bears into the cocky jerks that scared the rest of the league into submission. McMahon didnt have Ditkas blessing to do that - it wasnt humble it was outright insubordination, but it worked and a competitor become a champion. There are similar stories about Lawrence Taylor freelancing too. And Dtika and Parcells are two of the hottest tempered disciplinarians in NFL history. Caleb is all in, he will be "immortal" or bust. he will be arrogant, and at times perhaps insubordinate. But he will carry this team, kicking and screaming if necessary, to victories. I can imagine him getting pissed at early prevent defenses for example. And GOOD. This team needs leadership. So If Caleb is trolling with his pink nails, or really is about to be the first openly gay QB, etiehr way if he is motivated to be legendary, then that chip on his shoulder is a beautiful thing. The concern I guess is that he will take a knee and become an activist / victim. And I dont care what the cause, whether it be BLM, or Veterans Health care or whatever cause whoever is reading this thinks is very good and important, I think that kind of distractions hurt a teams Super Bowl chances, even if they do help society at large. But everything I see from Caleb paints the opposite picture. He may be gay, and even speak about it in the press, but I see him as fighting for greatness. So it is less important to me what motivates him, than that he is so highly motivated. I love Dennis Rodman. His style certainly allowed him a competitive advantage over players who's skin he got under. Same with McMahon, Jordan - you know the list. So I hope he continues to be flamboyant and trollish. I dont even care if he is that black hatted wrestling type villian. As long as he is kicking people's asses, Im here for it. So when we evaluate his quirks - let's not assume that being arrogant, lacking humility, being edgy or abrasive is always a bad thing. Let's instead take it in the context of success and dominance on the football field. The 85 Bears defense used to bark at the LOS. That's pretty obnoxious, egotistical and disrespectful. And it scared the hell out of grown men. Because they backed it up. So the question is, could they have been as violent, highly motivated and intimidating if they had not included emotion in their game? I cant wait to tell Packers fans "you dont like it? Beat us then and shut us up" Didnt Rodgers do that to us? Isnt it our turn?

So if what i say is true about Daniels not making second reads, and we all here agree that Nabors AND Thomas are both top half of the first round WRs, then maybe we can see how Daniels' numbers are inflated by the fact that his first read was open a LOT between these two. We can aslo see how Justin Fields looked, even with his difficulty in reading defenses, at Ohio State surrounded by top three round draft picks. If everyone's open, then you don't need to do a lot of reading. So we can see how it gets fuzzy to judge QBs in college when they dont really have to make second reads, or influence safeties. Im not saying Daniels cant learn to do that, but i am saying that youd be making a bet that he will, one which historically goes bad a lot (but not all) of the time. On the other hand, we are fortunate that Williams was not surrounded by elite talent. He doesnt have anyone on his team from last year who will go in the first 3 rounds of the draft. It's like judging a pass rusher from a team that has 3 good ones. You see the sacks come easy, but remove the help and they may or may not be able to produce on their own facing the main attention of the OL, double teams, rollouts etc. Williams did all that alone. His biggest criticism being that he looked for big plays too much, but he was always needing 40 points to win, and he wasnt getting consistent open receivers either. Still there are many dozens of examples of him making quick reads, moving safeties, and finding second and third reads in tempo. Some will say that Justin has the same excuses here in the NFL, But what Im saying is they arent excuses, because Williams put up big numbers with nothing anyway, and Justin didnt. My point in bringing Daniels and Fields in is just to underline the point of the difficulty in projecting QB talent from college when they have lots of help, and how fortunate we are with Williams, to have that question already answered on film.

me too! right now he is a "generational" prospect. Soon he will be in the league, and there are good reasons to believe he's gonna be an excellent NFL QB, but today, they are are all nothing in the NFL (yet)! Right now, every rookie QB is tied for last place in the NFL lol

*IF* Caleb is who we think he is, that wouldnt be enough.

I think Daniels has a lot of physical tools, and throws a great ball, but doesnt read defenses. I predict that he will be a massive bust in the NFL, kind of like how Justin ended up. So at least I'm on the record, and we can see what happens.

for sure.

theyre definitely doing their due diligence at least

for sure. I dunno if Dexter and Stevenson are blue chippers yet, but they are on the way if they arent already.

totally agree, although if Alt is there i might take him.

I feel like 4 QBs, the top 3 WRs and Joe Alt will be off the board when we get to pick #9. At that point, there are a bunch of interesting names, but none truly stands out as a must have to me. Maybe the Bears warroom disagrees - theyve watched more tape on this next group than I ever will, so theyre probably right if they think that. More likely though, to me at least, would be a trade down to somewhere between 11 and 18, and take one of the 1b list that includes a couple OTs, all 3 Edge players, WR Thomas, some 3Ts and our favorite Center JPJ. Someone should want to trade up to 9 for Bowers, Nix, Penix or one of the DLs. If any of the four I mentioned above do fall to 9, and it only takes ONE pick in the top 8 to make that happen, then we probably take them.

well Dexter and Pickens are tackles, but the ends arent as big as I thought. Turner is 6' 3" 247 pounds Ngokuoe is 6' 2" 246 pounds So Eberflus doesnt mind that size, I wasnt right when i said he would. I do think he needs DEs that can set an edge, and Im not sure that's Turner, but i cant rule him out on size like I thought I could because even Sweat is 6' 6" 262 pounds.

it looks that way, and in arguing that Turner is too small, I just proved above that he is the same size as Sweat and Ngokuoe too, so that idea of mine just failed.

Here's some excerpts from Turner's Draft Profile on NFL.com: "A team would be wise to widen him out and allow him a better runway to ignite his burst and overwhelm tackles with his speed. He’s added 20 pounds since coming to Alabama, but he struggles at times to stack and shed run blockers or set a firm edge. Turner’s frame and game are much less developed than Will Anderson Jr.’s coming out of Alabama last year, so it could take time for him to make his mark as a starting 3-4 outside linebacker." "Below-average anchor to prevent being displaced by force." "NFL Comp: Brian Burns" (who is an OLB edge player, who played for the Panthers, and got traded to the Giants, both teams are 3-4 base teams) But then I did this research... Dallas Turner 6'3" 247 pounds Leonard Floyd 6'3" 240 pounds Will Anderson 6'4" 243 pounds All 3-4 OLBs But ALSO Montez Sweat 6'6" 262 pounds Yannick Ngokuoe 6'2" 246 pounds and now Im not sure whether Eberflus would like him, since Sweat and Ngokuoe are lighter than I thought they were. hmmmm.

the converse argument would be that in nickel, you have even more need for a true run stopping DE, since youve swapped out a LB for a DB, sacrificing total muscle on the field for more speed. thats why most nickel and dime (non prevent) have 4 man fronts. So theres two DEs for contain. Its also why DEs more often take the outside route tot he QB, so they can also play the run. Of course on 3rd down, its a free for all pass rush sometimes. I just think Turner is better suited to a 3-4 front, even as he is the most talented pure pass rusher.

sure when theyre tricking people out, but in your base defense, I cant think of one with a CB setting the edge? Anyway, I think Eberflus wants bigger guys than Turner, but Turner is probably the best 3rd down pass rusher of the bunch.

from a flexibility standpoint I understand what youre saying, but from a schematic point of view, every defense needs to identify one player on each side of the field that is responsible for "contain" meaning that you dont have to make the tackle, but you have to stay outside the ballcarrier so that they evade you back into the teeth of the defense, and cant flank the entire defense up the sideline for a big gain. In Eberflus' 4-3 zone scheme, the LBers drop so the DEs have containment responsibilities. So they have to be big enough to set the edge. Also, because they need to take a beat and respect that run containment assignment, thats why we say a cover 2 scheme needs a 3T, because the DEs are a little less abrupt upfield on regular downs, and an active DT makes up the difference in pressure. In a 3-4 scheme, one of the 2 OLBs can be a big physical edge setter, like Mack was, but the other one can be light like Floyd was, because the opposite side DE in that case has contain. It's like Mack and the other 3 DL are the front 4, and the edge LB that isnt big, is like a 4-3 over or under LB, shifted over to that side. So if you put a light DE who doesnt play the run well in a 4-3 zone front, youd need to ask the LB on that side to take containment responsibility and thats basically like blitzing with a zone behind it which is asking to get burned. THe only way that would work is if you have a monster DT who can play wide and set that edge. I suppose it's possible, but Ive never seen a scheme that was built that way? It'd almost be like your DT was stunting to DE as your base defense.

for sure. If one of the blue chip OT, DL or WRs are available at 9, we should grab them. Having our LOT and ROT set for the next 10 years would be massive for Caleb and our running game. Im hoping someone falls, but i suspect we are gonna trade down to 11 to 18 ish and pickup someone from that 1b tier. I feel like the guys we all want are gone by 8?

absolutely. Football is played, and won, by football players.